Post Xbox One Two Scorpio, what should Sony do next? *spawn* (oh, and Nintendo?)

Im using the follow napkin math:
Ps4 is 50% more powerrful than Xbox One.
Ps4Neo is 2x-3x as powerful than the Ps4 (depending on which numbers and calculations)
So maybe 5x Xbox One would be a bit on the high side.

Just trying to come up with something that fits the narrative a bit more realistically.

 

I'm sure it will be at least 5x more powerful than the Wii

 

Hmm. The narrative is >10x generational step in 4 years rather than the usual 6. It's not impossible given this gen was low performance, and if MS go with a monster console, but we'd be past the "upgradeable console" territory and into "shorter life cycle" territory. There'd be a complete gulf between XB1 and this XBN, while PS4 carries on with the last gen. So the softwre for the XBN would be...high end PC ports?

 

This was discussed a few times on here, for both the current gen and the last one. They both could do that but it's a business model that, so far, hasn't worked.
Heck, it hardly works in the mobile world, so much so that carriers have been threatening for quite a while that the age of 'free phones' will end. Some day. It hasn't yet.

 

Indeed, MS tried that with 360 and I guess the take-up was very low because it wasn't an option for XB1.

 

The more I think the more I believe that if MSFT touch Durango hardware then focus should be price reduction.
It could be a chance to move away from optical drive and media. They should remove all the fat from the system (unnecessary audio stuff, TV stuff, etc.), they should even give a hard thought about hiow much RAM the system needs. Then sell the thing 199$, less with a two years subscription and pray for the best. The best would be regaining ground in Europe and maintaining a decent presence in US, and hope to be able to have a five years gen and no slash back from theirs costumers.
Mean while promote more Steam-machine like mini PC, and a console mode form PC.
Get the real next generation ready while FUDing...

 

Actually this is what Microsoft should do for existing Xbox One owners. Something like this would go a long way to easing their transition to the newer platform. Would also minimize backlash, which is going to be unavoidable I'm afraid.

 

MS keeping its pace and releasing a console when ready, maybe with a second generation AR helmet is likely the best option for customers, maybe not for the company though ^^

 

Makes sense.
I have to say I really don't care about MS anymore at this point in time, might change in the future ^^

 

VR would be a good way for MS to spin this.

"Current gen is grreat for 1080 screens ~ check out our X1 slim ~ but for VR you need a minimum of 6 gflop and a high performance cpu cores to eliminate stuttering, because that will cause you to develop epilepsy.

P.S. XBVR also plays all X1 games and is elite for 4K tv gaming so buy it for that too."

And then they announce this the day before PS4 Neo.

Minimise X1 owner angst, spoiler the neo without even mentioning it.

 

You don't actually mention that part yet ...

Actually, thinking about it, 6TF wouldn't cost you that much more than 4TF. Comparing to the X1:

BR drive? Same cost
HDD? Same cost
Case? Same cost
Assembly and testing? Probably about the same.
Pad and cables? Same cost
Packaging and shipping? Same cost
Mobo? Probably around the same (and you can ditch the HDMI in stuff).

Your extra is likely to be chip, memory and power. Even the cooler doesn't need to cost much extra (less?) if you go for something effective rather than silent (X1 cooler is a beast).

GDDR5X is going to come down in price rapidly as it gets used on millions of mainstream cards. 4 core Zen for the APU is definitely going to be a mainstream cost competitive option as it's what'll be in AMD's mainstream APUs.

The big additional cost going forward is going to be die. Even then, cost isn't going to scale linearly with flops.

 

Cost of die area is not a linear function. There are "sweet spots". That's why PS4 die area ~ xbo.
That's why PS4k exists. It does not cost much more than base PS4.

 

My ideal/dream E3 from Microsoft:

- Today are launching XB1 Slim at $299.
- Slight increase of system power, will see framerate / resolution gains
- Downplay system power, it’s still Xbox One, no special designation
- New system next year, take all of your XB1 games with you, will be cutting edge

 

Cost per gate graphs indicate that the PS4 die will indeed cost rather more than the APU in the base PS4, and "sweet spot" is affected by how the die is used (i.e. sram is defect tolerant) and the price the market is willing to pay for the chip (both MS and Sony wanted to come in at a similar BOM). I think you are rather oversimplifying the matter. But that is not the point I'm making.

The chip is only a fraction of the price of the system. The PS4 teardown from launch suggested that the APU was $100, with a BOM of $372. If Sony had paid twice as much for the APU, the console would not have been twice as expensive, it would have been ~25% more expensive. But that chip would have been vastly more expensive to support (memory, power etc) so it could never have been realistic.

"Sweet spot" of a chip for a console has far more to it than yield vs die size.

With the perf/watt and perf/GB/s advances of 14nm and AMDs new architecture, Sony can now house a significantly faster chip without incurring outlandish extra costs elsewhere. HDD, BR, case, cooler, power, even memory will all come in somewhere close.

That is why Sony can launch a significantly faster system - with relatively little extra cost - and that is why Neo exists.

Edit: and as GDDR5X / DDR4 / LPDD4 / HBM2 mature and as yields on 14nm improve, and as architectures are refined, and as markets for higher end systems rise or fall, "sweet spots" will continue to move.

 

I wanted to say that APU which costs twice as much (accounting yield ratio, die size, etc.) could produce only 20% increase in performance.

$400 for 4TF or $500 for 4.8TF.