Playstation3 unveilment: next E3. Now, official.
- Thread starter megateto
- Start date
Judging from Sony's manner of operation, this likely means that the E3 presentation for PS3 will use mostly non-final versions of the next-generation hardware to run demonstrations that are meant to convey the system's potential.
Judging from the timetables for both the devkit release and the expected progress of launch software, this technology looks like it could make its debut in the first half of 2006 in Japan. With the concurrency of a console's launch preparations for hardware, tools, and software, it's not inconceivable that machines could be rushed onto the market only a couple of months after volume production starts, so an even earlier debut is somewhat of a possibility too.
nondescript
Regular
aaaaa00 said:
I doubt its the caddies that are the cost. How much can two pieces of injected mold plastic and a piece of stamped aluminum cost? Can`t be much more than a CD case...
As the report says, they
I think this cost will come down as volume production savings are realized.
nondescript said:
Remember, it's Sony injected mold plastic and stamped aluminum... Bound to cost more than any other type of molded plastic and aluminium....
*runs*
Not that that matters for anything but the media-playing side of it. The primary affect will be on the game publishers, and how manufacturing costs compare to carts.aaaaa00 said:
On a tangent, might you have links to the prices you're quoting otherwise? I've been on the lookout for cost-measuring information in this area, but don't have a particularly large reference pile right now...
cthellis42 said:
The price for UMD is as stated previously in the thread.
I don't have a public source for DVD9 (and my figure is really old too), but five minutes of googling got me this:
http://www.hbgtek.com/dvdindex.htm
And if this is the price some random company on the net will give you without any negotiation, what do you think their profit margin is, and what is the real cost of making a DVD disc?
nondescript said:
Two pieces of injection moulded plastic, two liners, a metal spring and a shutter. Glue to hold everything together.
6 seperate components, two of which are mechanical and involve moving parts, which have to be moulded or stamped, assembled, and tested.
The whole reason why caddyless optical media is the standard today is that caddys tend to cost as much or more than the disc itself to make in mass quantities.
If UMD discs are $2.25 to make, I'm willing to bet the caddy itself is a pretty big chunk of the cost, since UMD media itself is very similar to a mini-DVD, and should have roughly the same fabrication costs as DVD.
Panajev2001a
Veteran
Pssst.... in the same slide they put price of single layer DVD at 200 yen (developers never complained about the otrageous price... "oh how come in this random website I can get DVDs for 69 cents ???" as they are not paying for the production of the physical disc alone) and double-layer DVD at 300 yen: I know that it would worsen your argument "oh teh no, UMD is overpriced", but I think that the price reflects more than just the physical piece of plastic you call a disc.
You are comparing apples with oranges as the prices you just quoted hardly include packaging, etc...
250 yen is the price the developers pay fpr the final UMD: they do not print their own, they do not need to have "blank UMDs".
You are comparing apples with oranges as the prices you just quoted hardly include packaging, etc...
250 yen is the price the developers pay fpr the final UMD: they do not print their own, they do not need to have "blank UMDs".
Panajev2001a said:
You're serious? I don't see any slide posted here mentioning 250 yen for the finished UMD product including case and packaging. Neither do I see a slide that says finished DVD5 is 200 yen or DVD9 is 300 yen. The wording in the article is:
Per disc, not "per package", not "per retail unit".
On the other hand, you might be right, and if 250 yen is indeed for a complete retail unit, then ok I take back my objections.
But if it is indeed "per disc" then Sony is full of crap, and they're overestimating the mass duplication cost for DVD by two or three times, possibly to make UMD look good.
You can link to the slide?
Neither is the $.39 (qty 100,000) price for DVD5 duplication from that random web site. That site is not selling DVDRs. It is not selling "blanks".
That company is doing professional mass production of glass mastered DVDs with printed labels, but no case or packaging. You give them your DLT master tape, or a DVD-R with the final disc image, and they give you back a pile of finished discs.
And I stand by my estimate that a finished glass-mastered DVD9 with printed label is less than $.70 a disc.
Panajev2001a
Veteran
There:
Panajev2001a
Veteran
http://babelfish.altavista.com/babe...watch.impress.co.jp/av/docs/20040712/scei.htm
A little too ambiguous still.
Vince said:
Kutaragi is going to stockpile them all, and than lock himself in a room with them and jack off.
But for real, people who think they are going to sit on these IC are just going to be in for a shock. And no I don't want to debate this, everyone here knows my stance on things and I know yours by now, so we'll leave it at that.
Panajev2001a
Veteran
No one thinks that they will release in Japan in late 2006.
I just fear that some people are looking at the issue similarly to how they predicted an imminent PlayStation 2 launch after the Emotion Engine started appearing in presentations ( January 1999 and it took more than a year to launch in the U.S. ).
We know nothing of their yeilds, nothing on the amount of chips per wafer and their projected "consoles per month" number they can produce once they start CELL chips mass-production.
You can be optimistic or pessimistic, it is your take.
You are setting yourself up for disappointment IMHO if you think about a October/November 2005 release date for the PlayStation 3 in Japan.
They said it themselves that they were trying to follow PlayStation 2 release schedule: premiere of the EE in January 1999, PlayStation 3 appearance at E3 1999, first real games being shown at TGS 2000 in the fall, launch in March 2000 in Japan and October/November 2000 in the U.S. and this is easy for you to check.
Doing a PlayStation 3 schedule like Ken Kutaragi suggested, SCE is trying to follow the same release schedule that PlayStation 2 had, we have: premiere of the BE in January/February 2005, PlayStation 3 appearance at E3 2005, first real games being shown at TGS 2005 in the fall, launch in March 2006 in Japan and October/November 2006 in the U.S. and this is easy for you to check.
You do not want to believe Sony's own words on the matter ?
Fine, do so, but do not come back and cry if they do not have a simultaneous launch in Japan and U.S. in March 2005 as you are expecting.
I just fear that some people are looking at the issue similarly to how they predicted an imminent PlayStation 2 launch after the Emotion Engine started appearing in presentations ( January 1999 and it took more than a year to launch in the U.S. ).
We know nothing of their yeilds, nothing on the amount of chips per wafer and their projected "consoles per month" number they can produce once they start CELL chips mass-production.
You can be optimistic or pessimistic, it is your take.
You are setting yourself up for disappointment IMHO if you think about a October/November 2005 release date for the PlayStation 3 in Japan.
They said it themselves that they were trying to follow PlayStation 2 release schedule: premiere of the EE in January 1999, PlayStation 3 appearance at E3 1999, first real games being shown at TGS 2000 in the fall, launch in March 2000 in Japan and October/November 2000 in the U.S. and this is easy for you to check.
Doing a PlayStation 3 schedule like Ken Kutaragi suggested, SCE is trying to follow the same release schedule that PlayStation 2 had, we have: premiere of the BE in January/February 2005, PlayStation 3 appearance at E3 2005, first real games being shown at TGS 2005 in the fall, launch in March 2006 in Japan and October/November 2006 in the U.S. and this is easy for you to check.
You do not want to believe Sony's own words on the matter ?
Fine, do so, but do not come back and cry if they do not have a simultaneous launch in Japan and U.S. in March 2005 as you are expecting.
Panajev2001a
Veteran
Whatever Paul, if you cannot argue logically do give up.
I am disappointed as I know that both you and Vince can argue logically.
Right now Vince's logic is "hahaha Sony can make all the BE and VS and PS3 chips in few months and they say that mass-manufacturing, which I assume means the same exact final full-speed PS3 chips, starts no later than middle 2005... are they going to sit on finished consoles for a year or more oh da lol ahaha".
This argument makes lots of assumptions and it is the son of the previous one that followed Toshiba's statement that by first half of 2H CY2004 they were going to manufacture chips in Oita #2 which people seemed to take as "PS3 chips mass-produced at high-rates by the end of 2004".
Also, from the moment they begin mass-production of the final specs chips they are effectively STOCKPILING ICs and long before that the specs were finalized and the manufacturing process tweaked for the target speed based on earlier revisions of the chips during risk production and even earlier: since this point in time in which final specs were frozen they were effectively STOCKPILING ICs as nothing would have mattered.. had they mass-production starting the next-day or a year from that moment.
Also, Paul please be rational: Sony syas that they schedule they are following for PlayStation 3 is going to be as close to the one they followed for PlayStation 2 as possible and in that slide we all saw they gave you the starting points.
Don't you think that simultaneously launching in Japan and in the U.S. in March 2006 would not mean significantly beating PlayStation 2 schedule and Vince's idea of a Japanese launch in late 2005 would be crazily beating by a long margin PlayStation 2's schedule ?
I am disappointed as I know that both you and Vince can argue logically.
Right now Vince's logic is "hahaha Sony can make all the BE and VS and PS3 chips in few months and they say that mass-manufacturing, which I assume means the same exact final full-speed PS3 chips, starts no later than middle 2005... are they going to sit on finished consoles for a year or more oh da lol ahaha".
This argument makes lots of assumptions and it is the son of the previous one that followed Toshiba's statement that by first half of 2H CY2004 they were going to manufacture chips in Oita #2 which people seemed to take as "PS3 chips mass-produced at high-rates by the end of 2004".
Also, from the moment they begin mass-production of the final specs chips they are effectively STOCKPILING ICs and long before that the specs were finalized and the manufacturing process tweaked for the target speed based on earlier revisions of the chips during risk production and even earlier: since this point in time in which final specs were frozen they were effectively STOCKPILING ICs as nothing would have mattered.. had they mass-production starting the next-day or a year from that moment.
Also, Paul please be rational: Sony syas that they schedule they are following for PlayStation 3 is going to be as close to the one they followed for PlayStation 2 as possible and in that slide we all saw they gave you the starting points.
Don't you think that simultaneously launching in Japan and in the U.S. in March 2006 would not mean significantly beating PlayStation 2 schedule and Vince's idea of a Japanese launch in late 2005 would be crazily beating by a long margin PlayStation 2's schedule ?
IBM’s Cell Will Change the World, Says Report
src: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/display/20040715175108.html
“The year 2004 marks the birth of a distinctly new cellular computing era. As with past watershed computing events, the driving and trend-setting force will be IBM. While I shy away from hyperbole, our report demonstrates that the business impact of IBM’s new cellular computing technology will be potentially as profound as the Yucatan asteroid’s was on life on Earth millions of years ago,†said Boris Petrov, managing partner of the Petrov Group.
src: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/display/20040715175108.html
“The year 2004 marks the birth of a distinctly new cellular computing era. As with past watershed computing events, the driving and trend-setting force will be IBM. While I shy away from hyperbole, our report demonstrates that the business impact of IBM’s new cellular computing technology will be potentially as profound as the Yucatan asteroid’s was on life on Earth millions of years ago,†said Boris Petrov, managing partner of the Petrov Group.