Offical blueray and other large format storage. thread

[pcostabel]

In terms of functionality, I don't think a BR device can [totally] replace a HDD. If Sony want the PS3 to become the home media hub, it needs to have software on the machine (in a similar fashion to the Xbox). What's more, it needs to be able to store a fair amount of this software, and it needs to be upgradeable and patchable.

Hmmm, good point. I forgot that PS3 will likely be more than just a game machine... However, Sony could come up with two different models, one purely for gaming and one for media hub, like the PS2 and PSX.
In that case, the gaming-only PS3 could do without an HD and cost less.
They could also sell the HD separately, like for the PS2.

 

[jvd]

First off i just want to post my reasons why i think blue ray wont make it to the market.


1) This format is plagued with problems. Blue lasers (i think they are purple actually right ?) are very hard to make and they are having bad yields on the bluerays. The answer for this isn't in sight yet. hopefully it will be soon because i wouldn't mind the tech.

2) Blueray might still be very expensive (I am not talking 3k . I'm talking about anything over 50 bucks and it most likely wont make it into the ps3.) This will take away money from other parts that could use it. For instance if yields are bad on the cell chip at certian meghertz . Or even the gpu they are using.

3) Dvds still have alot of life in them. We see with simple mods the current dvd players will be able to use 100gig discs with barely any cost added.

4) A writable format is just begging to be abused by the pirate scene . Imagine how much worse it would have been if the dreamcast had a gigarom burner built in.


Those are my reasons why. Please feel free to pick at them or even throw support to them.

 

[Psychogenics]

First off i just want to post my reasons why i think blue ray wont make it to the market.


1) This format is plagued with problems. Blue lasers (i think they are purple actually right ?) are very hard to make and they are having bad yields on the bluerays. The answer for this isn't in sight yet. hopefully it will be soon because i wouldn't mind the tech.

2) Blueray might still be very expensive (I am not talking 3k . I'm talking about anything over 50 bucks and it most likely wont make it into the ps3.) This will take away money from other parts that could use it. For instance if yields are bad on the cell chip at certian meghertz . Or even the gpu they are using.

3) Dvds still have alot of life in them. We see with simple mods the current dvd players will be able to use 100gig discs with barely any cost added.

4) A writable format is just begging to be abused by the pirate scene . Imagine how much worse it would have been if the dreamcast had a gigarom burner built in.


Those are my reasons why. Please feel free to pick at them or even throw support to them.

First off I tought that the most DVD-Red laser can only read up to 18gigs and not more because of instability,But don't you think that if there was a cheaper way of doing 20+gigs Sony and many other big companies would kill to have that format......Stability is Key here because Blu-ray is made so that the laser reads info at a very close proximity Without faults.And secondly I know piracy is on the rise but if you could limit the way Burning is done on the PS3 or may other devices wouldn't Piracy be cut down.?The only reason piracy exist is because the public doesn't know how it effects them.....If like in 8mile you add feathers that pirates can't copy the public will want the original instead of the crap that pirates sell.

 

[chaphack]

"640k ought to be enough for everyone"

More is good of course...but we have to look at other factors too. JVD 100GB modded DVDs sound interesting.

Faster DVD transfer == faster RPM, which is technically more complex
than denser data packing. And of course, nobody stops Sony from using a 2X BR if they want to

Faf puts it better. Bits Bytes suxxor!

Sony wants BR in PS3 to estabilish it as a standard, not just to sell PS3.

But SCEI wants to sell PS3, the more the merrier. BR as a standard does not depends solely on Sony.

Who said PS3 will be $299?

Ah! Thats where the suck might come from.

Incidentially biggest PC games right now are also console ports

And the only console port(s) that taketh most space is MGS2. One dual layer singe sided DVD. Most of them are still at 2-4 CDs. A better compression scheme might help?

By 2005 they expect to have 18 MB/s of bandwidth and 50 GB Re-Writable discs...

But will it make it cheap to the PS3?



I wonder how much the PSX will cost. A 1000? 2000? Sure the supporters will claim it is meant to be a high end lifestyle product, but what is stopping Sony from selling it cheaper? It is just a PS2, with a Tv turner, DVD burner and HDD...norminal parts, nothing cutting edge...

 

[Vince]

I wonder how much the PSX will cost. A 1000? 2000? Sure the supporters will claim it is meant to be a high end lifestyle product, but what is stopping Sony from selling it cheaper? It is just a PS2, with a Tv turner, DVD burner and HDD...norminal parts, nothing cutting edge...

It's called market supported profit taking - a concept that appears elusive to people here. Not that people here actually care about the finer points aslong as they can get a half-assed argument rooted in ignorance against said supporters.

Lets face it, it is not going to happen. Sony, as bad as their current financial condition, has already invested millions on R&D, new plants and all. Throwing more features will hike up the price.

(1) How is their current financial condition in anyway, shape, or form - "bad"?

(2) And I realise that the common ideology around here is that added features (even when integrated in set-piece IC's necessary for the primary task of the device) increase costs, but this just isn't true.

I realise that the interner allows every Tom, Dick and Harry to vent his beliefs on others and pretend to know it all, but companies such as Sony have entire groups trained in Economics and applied mathmatics that do nothing but budget, catagorize and count the proverbial beans... day in and day out. This is the real world - one in which the talking about Blu-Ray's inclusion and it's current R&D within the Group show that it's proboblity of use has been deemed acceptable by not only the first tier engineers working on Blu-Ray, but it's been acceptable to the SCE demands comming down from Okamoto with regards to preformance. Then then finacial people get involved and project costs before they let Kutaragi loose.

You see although the internet allows a bunch of people with no skill in basic Microeconomics/Price Theory to preach about product costs, and it lets a whole bunch of people with no idea about the macroeconomic world to predict how the market will ultimatly accept or deny a good and the flow of money - it doesn't mean there aren't other people out there laughing at you.

So when articles like this - http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=9053 - or this - http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=7078 - emerge and permiate the conversation, it shows just how lacking people are. This is similar to what you're currently doing Chap, you're creating problems with Blu-Ray because of your bias against a specific company, you can stand an inert comment concering it and as such will make ridiculous comments like "-23~27MB of single sided BR storage space is great! BUT do we need that much?" or "-Fully function BR capable PS3 for $299! Cant wait! Lets face it, it is not going to happen" not based on sound rational that you can empiracally back-up, but rather a manifestation of your bias.

Or do you see how people such as PC-Engine or Chap keep finding Blu-Ray alternatives that will take the world by storm and throw the inevitable wrench into the entablished Blu-Ray coalition and by extention Sony and then trickle down to PS3? First it was just DVDs, then it was the now dead AoD, then back to just DVDs, now it's this phantom DVD+ which is suspect as Mfa stated and begs the question, Where is it? In the words of Goose I believe, I looked left... Hollywood looked right... I asked Hollywood, "Where'd he go?"...Hollywood said, "WHERE'D WHOOO GOOOOO???"
The whole situation concerning anything posted in this manner is shady.

 

[notAFanB]

Lets face it, it is not going to happen. Sony, as bad as their current financial condition, has already invested millions on R&D, new plants and all. Throwing more features will hike up the price.

I was not aware that they were in trouble, are you sure it's not jus the revised forecasts?

 

[nonamer]

Stuff on the blue laser:

http://www.sciencewatch.com/jan-feb2000/sw_jan-feb2000_page3.htm

http://tonytalkstech.com/archives/000122.php

The first is about the guy who invented the blue laser diode, and the second has a tidbit on the difficulty in manufacturing blue laser diodes. Hope this might help.

 

[chaphack]

It's called market supported profit taking - a concept that appears elusive to people here.

And what is stopping them from doing the same with PS3? A cheaper no frills game only PS3 and a highend expensive PSX2? Chapz simply call this, catering to the intended audience.

How is their current financial condition in anyway, shape, or form - "bad"?

Havent you read about the major profitability slump and debts Sony got themselves into lately?

And I realise that the common ideology around here is that added features (even when integrated in set-piece IC's necessary for the primary task of the device) increase costs, but this just isn't true

It is true. Read only vs recordability will increase cost. Do normal gamers need optical recordability?

This is the real world - one in which the talking about Blu-Ray's inclusion and it's current R&D within the Group show that it's proboblity of use has been deemed acceptable by not only the first tier engineers working on Blu-Ray, but it's been acceptable to the SCE demands comming down from Okamoto with regards to preformance.

Where can i find all these real world instances of SCE looking/hinting towards BR in PS3?

Or do you see how people such as PC-Engine or Chap keep finding Blu-Ray alternatives that will take the world by storm and throw the inevitable wrench into the entablished Blu-Ray coalition and by extention Sony and then trickle down to PS3? First it was just DVDs, then it was the now dead AoD, then back to just DVDs, now it's this phantom DVD+

What is wrong with looking for alternatives, especially something that are cheaper and more common? At least we dont stick ourselves into the BR OR NOTHING mud!

not based on sound rational that you can empiracally back-up, but rather a manifestation of your bias.

There is nothing biased, i would say the same for XB2.

Sometimes, people are expecting too much from SCE....again nothing they have done in the past has indicated that the stock PS3 will be more than what is just needed...Oh boy! Cannot wait for next gen(or at least the PSP), we shall then see how far SCEI(and MS/Nintendo) are willing to go to fulfill their fannys dreams!!!! 8)

 

[chaphack]

From one of nonamer's link, dated June 2003:

The blue laser diode was invented March of 2001 and based on indium gallium nitride (InGaN) substrate. Newer diodes are based on gallium nitride substrate. Sony has found that in the manufacturing of the diode crystals, about a third of the diodes created are unuseable because their substrates crack under the extreme heat of production. This, of course, increases the price of the finished product. Research has been done on a water based blue laser. A prototype is expected by the end of the year. This will bring the product price of $3800 down to a price that is inline with the red laser product prices. Eventually they will be able to create the blue laser with just hydrogen.

Can Sony beat the time clock????
Has the prices of any rewriteable medium(especially one that is still so infant) fall drastically within 2/3 years

 

[Vince]

It's called market supported profit taking - a concept that appears elusive to people here.

And what is stopping them from doing the same with PS3? A cheaper no frills game only PS3 and a highend expensive PSX2? Chapz simply call this, catering to the intended audience.

I think you need to learn what consistency is. You just stated (more like bitched, but that's besides the point) about the probable cost of PSX and how it's unjustable (yet "supporters will try") and then turn around and tell me about catering to an audience?

Havent you read about the major profitability slump and debts Sony got themselves into lately?

I think you need to go reread the finacial report.

Where can i find all these real world instances of SCE looking/hinting towards BR in PS3?

Someone had a link that accredited a Sony project manager to a comment calling Blu-Ray a frontrunner for PS3. Then, if you'd keep up, Panajev just posted a link which states that the project has since come under Kutaragi's aegis. I think the probobility is high, unles you want a redux of the Cell in PS3 arguments which we all know the outcome of.

What is wrong with looking for alternatives, especially something that are cheaper and more common? At least we dont stick ourselves into the BR OR NOTHING mud!

Yes! As we all know consistency and accuracy in what we predict is a bad thing. If you and others didn't make fallicious and ultimatly false predictions the first, or subsequent, times then you wouldn't need new alternatives to challenge the static thoughts that many have been supporting for over a year.

 

[chaphack]

I think you need to learn what consistency is. You just stated (more like bitched, but that's besides the point) about the probable cost of PSX and how it's unjustable (yet "supporters will try") and then turn around and tell me about catering to an audience?

Wrong. I was just pointing out how Sony can do a tiered product line, rather than throw everything and jack up the price. It is better for both Sony and consumers because the price can be adjusted to the specific user group.

I think you need to go reread the finacial report.

Gotta get me the link, cause the ones i read were a 2-3 months back and things were definitely not looking good for Sony.

Then, if you'd keep up, Panajev just posted a link which states that the project has since come under Kutaragi's aegis. I think the probobility is high, unles you want a redux of the Cell in PS3 arguments which we all know the outcome of.

I think the probability of full function BR YES is as good as full function BR NO. Speculatively, Kutaragi might be in charge of Sony BR div, but it doesnt mean he will throw it all for a stock PS3. Ironically that Pana article ends with a shot at the usual Kutaragi nonsense.

Yes! As we all know consistency and accuracy in what we predict is a bad thing.

Looking broadly isnt a bad thing either!

If you and others didn't make fallicious and ultimatly false predictions the first, or subsequent, times

Such as? AFAIK, in regards to BR, my stance has always been a full function BR will not happen with a stock $299 PS3.

heh, you make it sound like it's a bad thing.

Of course it is. Humble >>> Prideful IMHO.

 

[jvd]

Vince i think we can all agree that everything costs money to make. Some things cost more than others. When you have 1/3rd of the laser diodes dead from the start. Then you have alot of other things that can go wrong in a drive your cost is going to be higher than something that has been manufactured as long as dvd drives have been. That is a simple fact. At the end of the day they are making a video game system that to most people is just a toy. An extra form of entertainment. So it must sell as that first and formost . If the price is to high it wont sell no matter what it is. A 12 year old kid is not going to go and buy a 500 dollar video game system. Most adults wont pay that price. Now if sony needs to sell the system at 300 and it costs 700 to make then they are quickly going to go out of busniess. It will take years to make up the loss on the systems they sold. They are not ms with huge pockets.

SO you can go say whatever you want but at the end of the day we both know i'm right. If blueray is expensive to make then it will not go into the ps3. Sony has a price point they need to meet. There are other things more important that need to go into the ps3. If you try to argue these 3 points then I'm sorry but i can't have a convo with you. You can't see things from other angles at all.

 

[Vince]

Wrong. I was just pointing out how Sony can do a tiered product line, rather than throw everything and jack up the price. It is better for both Sony and consumers because the price can be adjusted to the specific user group.

Not that I want to argue about this, but you just said:

Chapz simply call this, catering to the intended audience

.

So, please do back-peddle. Because not only do you call it catering to an audience but so does Sony and their execs when you ask them about PSX.

Gotta get me the link, cause the ones i read were a 2-3 months back and things were definitely not looking good for Sony.

Hehe... yes, I link and ticket to your world would be nice around now.

Looking broadly isnt a bad thing either!

Don't handle investments... ever.

Of course it is. Humble >>> Prideful IMHO.

Nor does adding a ' ' icon to everything you say in a futile attempt to cover-up your point and appear to be withdrawn for stating a position.

 

[Vince]

Vince i think we can all agree that everything costs money to make. Some things cost more than others. When you have 1/3rd of the laser diodes dead from the start.

Do you have any idea of the yeilds on the NV30s initial run? Or VSA-100? You act as if initial production runs on new devices are allways >90%... This is how it works; yeilds normalize, per unit costs plummet with volume.

People much smarter than us crunch the numbers for companies like Sony and the other Blu-Ray Group manufacturers and if it wasn't economically viable do you think they'd go with it? They're corperations who have to account to the shareholders remember. You act as if you have some supreme knowledge that these economists and mathmaticians don't.

Then you have alot of other things that can go wrong in a drive your cost is going to be higher than something that has been manufactured as long as dvd drives have been. That is a simple fact.

And DVD drives initial yeilds weren't that of CDs. Nor is an new, cutting-edge product going to cost the same in the first year of production as it will in 4 years time. What do you expect from Blu-Ray? It's 2003 and it's just launched in the last 6 months... do you want it to be selling for $50 from the sole vendor already? Seriously, I want to know...

Because what you (and others) are inferring is a market state that defies all known logic dating back to the 1700s.

At the end of the day they are making a video game system that to most people is just a toy. An extra form of entertainment. So it must sell as that first and formost.

If you true think this then I will stop discussing this topic with you permanently. If you really believe Microsoft entered the industry because they love us all and want to sell games then you've lost all validity what-so-ever.

People with this linear thinking, those who oppose what I and others here advocate are the people who will never suceed. If you can't think dynamically and make inferences based on the massive web of information out there and do the probabilities as if you were a quantum physicist collapsing a wave equation then you'll never go anywhere in this buisness. We don't advance threw simple arithmatic progress, try thinking geometrically - you need to be dynamic and not just see tomorrow as today + 1.

Or as Alonzo said best, Shit's chess, it ain't checkers. (Name that movie)

The moral of this rant is that if you can't see what Sony and Microsoft are positioning themselves for, then I dunno what to say.

If the price is to high it wont sell no matter what it is. A 12 year old kid is not going to go and buy a 500 dollar video game system. Most adults wont pay that price. Now if sony needs to sell the system at 300 and it costs 700 to make then they are quickly going to go out of busniess.

$500, $700? Where is this comming from? I seriously am in a constant state of amazement when talking on here lately. We've already established that: (a) Costs linearly scale down while within the boundery of initial fixed costs with increasing economies of scale. (b) You don't know economics.

So please, if you're going to arbirarily pull numbers from the sky, atleast pull interesting ones like 1729 or 1105.

It will take years to make up the loss on the systems they sold. They are not ms with huge pockets

Just like on PS2 right? You know, for it's time PS2 was mighty expensive... it is all relative dispite your attempts to forget and manipulate data.

SO you can go say whatever you want but at the end of the day we both know i'm right.

Hehe....

If blueray is expensive to make then it will not go into the ps3. Sony has a price point they need to meet. There are other things more important that need to go into the ps3. If you try to argue these 3 points then I'm sorry but i can't have a convo with you. You can't see things from other angles at all.

Or what if I do see them from your angle (among others) and have ruled it out? Just think back to what I was advocacting PS3 would become and what has panned out so far, and then look at what you were saying (or weren't).... even the most abstract GRID-computing paradigm I supported back in 2000 when people said it was impossible is there to an extent.

 

[chaphack]

So, please do back-peddle. Because not only do you call it catering to an audience but so does Sony and their execs when you ask them about PSX

What? That was what i said. PS3, like PSX, with all those fanciful Tivo options is not likely to cost pretty

Hehe... yes, I link and ticket to your world would be nice around now.

Cmon now, share the joy. I am sure plenty have not read Sony's latest financial reports.

Nor does adding a ' ' icon to everything you say in a futile attempt to cover-up your point and appear to be withdrawn for stating a position.

at the end of my posts doesnt mean anything....i just find it ...cute..


Just a question, what has anything PS3 so far, links it to Grid computin? I dont know but putting a few Cells in PS3 doesnt sound like the traditional Grid i know a little of...?

 

[Vince]

Just a question, what has anything PS3 so far, links it to Grid computin? I dont know but putting a few Cells in PS3 doesnt sound like the traditional Grid i know a little of...?

Read any of PS3 Patent/Technical Circle Jerks... err... technical posts and look at how processing is shared. The concept of the Apulet is interesting.

 

[chaphack]

Well yeah, i usually read thru Pana rant, cant say i get much , interesting they might be though. But i think when people doubt Grid, they do mean the global network thing, rather bunch of parallel cpus in a local system, no?

 

[Vince]

Well yeah, i usually read thru Pana rant, cant say i get much , interesting they might be though. But i think when people doubt Grid, they do mean the global network thing, rather bunch of parallel cpus in a local system, no?

Shouldn't discuss this here, but I don't think locality is necessary for individual Apulets. Although in a RT system it is for obvious reasons. Thus, I'd guess it's task dependent.

at the end of my posts doesnt mean anything....i just find it ...cute..

Well in that case post pictures of cute girls, forget the icons.

 

[jvd]

Yawn .

Do you have any idea of the yeilds on the NV30s initial run? Or VSA-100? You act as if initial production runs on new devices are allways >90%... This is how it works; yeilds normalize, per unit costs plummet with volume.

People much smarter than us crunch the numbers for companies like Sony and the other Blu-Ray Group manufacturers and if it wasn't economically viable do you think they'd go with it? They're corperations who have to account to the shareholders remember. You act as if you have some supreme knowledge that these economists and mathmaticians don't.

The nv30 went into production in january and its yields still have no improved. I'm sure many people crunch numbers. I'm sure many of them are smarter than me. I'm sure many are smarter than you. Don't try to run around in circles while trying to insult me. Yes people thing blu ray will be profitable. But i'm sure none of them think it will be profitable today. When they think it will be profitable is when yields will improve. Yields might never improve. Intel never improved yields on the 1.13 p3. They scraped it and thats it. They went on to the next chip.

And DVD drives initial yeilds weren't that of CDs. Nor is an new, cutting-edge product going to cost the same in the first year of production as it will in 4 years time. What do you expect from Blu-Ray? It's 2003 and it's just launched in the last 6 months... do you want it to be selling for $50 from the sole vendor already? Seriously, I want to know...

Because what you (and others) are inferring is a market state that defies all known logic dating back to the 1700s.

No one claimed dvd drive yields were that of the cd drives at the begining. What we are claiming is we have no clue how much the yields will improve. We also have no clue what the faliure rate on the drive is either. Do you have a time machine that you can tell us that the yields will be up to 90% by the ps3 launch. Oh whats that you don't ? then shut up. We also don't epect it to sell for 50$ but you know what the first dvd drives for the pc weren't selling for 3grand. I know for a fact they don't cost 3 grand to make. I know why they are selling them for 3 grand. If they lower the price to a sane price they wont be able to keep up with demand. This way they can get some drives out and make good money back for the 1/3rd of the lasers that are failing.

If you true think this then I will stop discussing this topic with you permanently. If you really believe Microsoft entered the industry because they love us all and want to sell games then you've lost all validity what-so-ever.

I can think just as dynamicly as you are. Ready. Intel is going to sell ms ithium 2 chips really cheap so that they get a huge installed base . Yea the ithium chip doesn't cost what they are selling it for so of course they can put it in a 300 dollar system. How is that for dynamic .

Heh. I have no doubt ms entered the console industry to make money. But guess what the entered the console industry. So first and for most they need to make a video game system. So at the end of the day if the system is not in budget then they will cut out all the non console parts. So at the end of the day if that hardrive was to expensive they would have canned it. So that they could put out the video game system.

Remember console market. Remeber console market. Got that ? Mabye you should repeat that more.

$500, $700? Where is this comming from? I seriously am in a constant state of amazement when talking on here lately. We've already established that: (a) Costs linearly scale down while within the boundery of initial fixed costs with increasing economies of scale. (b) You don't know economics.

So please, if you're going to arbirarily pull numbers from the sky, atleast pull interesting ones like 1729 or 1105.

Actually i picked 500 since the xbox cost 580 at launch. I picked 700 because the neo geo cost that much to make. So i figured i'd give you a spectrum of past systems. Look at how bad both of those failed compared to the cheaper systems of the same gen.

I know that one day the blue ray , cell chip , gpu , ram , sound chip and all will drop in price. I also know that some will drop at diffrent speeds. I also know that it may not be fast enough for sony . I know how it works . I don't think u fully understand it . They wont put in a chip because some day it might be cheap enough . They put in a chip that is already in the budget knowing that it will one day be the reason the system will be able to sell at 150 or 100$ with out loosing money. You should know this . You nkow why sony is in this market. Its to make money. But once again they are in the video game market. The console market. So at the end of the day it has to sell to video game buyers. Not home movie fanatics. Everyone on this board knows that 300 is the magic price point. Sony knows they can't outspend ms . They also don't need to. So they will stay close to that magic 300$ number (with the ps2 i think at launch it cost 410$ to make ) THus they can sustain a price war with ms .

Or what if I do see them from your angle (among others) and have ruled it out? Just think back to what I was advocacting PS3 would become and what has panned out so far, and then look at what you were saying (or weren't).... even the most abstract GRID-computing paradigm I supported back in 2000 when people said it was impossible is there to an extent.

I have never said that the cell chip couldn't exist. Once again you have a memory that likes to remember what you want to remember. I have only said that . The cell chip patent may not be the one that is in the system. 1) price reasons , 2) yields 3) mhz of the chip or 4 ) they wouldn't have the plants ready in time. I full well know that a chip like the cell is possible. I know that there are chips better that are possible.

Just like on PS2 right? You know, for it's time PS2 was mighty expensive... it is all relative dispite your attempts to forget and manipulate data.

I know the ps2 was expensive. But that is because the intial yields were bad but they were fixed before launch of the ps2 in the usa. So the price quickly droped. I also know that the xbox still cost more than a 100 to make over what the ps2 cost at the japan launch.


I think you want blu ray in the ps3 and because of that you have ruled out any alternatives. But all those number crunchers will have back up plans. I'm sure there are 3 or more ps3s in development as we speak . One for everything that can wrong with sonys ambitious plan.


Now please no more huge posts .

 

[chaphack]

Another thing to keep in note, is that Sony/PS3 primary profits will still come from games sold. We can talk about streaming movies this and net services that, but i am sure those are at the very infancy stages, since the infrastructure and the end-users will not be ready to mass adopt that online lifestyle.