You don't need to buy a new SLI motherboard every year, nor is the price differential $200. Since most people need to upgrade to PCI-E from AGP, they could go straight to SLI MB for next to nothing, or whenever they next upgrade their MB. Otherwise, you should factor in the cost of an PCI-E mainboard when running the scenario "User upgrades from 9700/9800 or X800 to R600"
Your theory and comparison fails for the following reasons:
a) some people don't want to wait an indeterminate 2 years for a hypothetical next-gen part
b) the hypothetical next-gen part may not perform as well you you think. 2x performance increase every 2 years is not a law of nature.
c) $500 in two years on a top-end is more costly than $200 in two years. In other words, if I spend $500 today on a topend, then spend $200 in two years, I will have bought my SLI for a total of $700. But if I spend $500 today for a non-SLI card topend, I'd have to handout another $500 to pay for my upgrade in two years, yielding a total of $1000. The SLI user's cost amounted to $700, the $500 GPU non-SLI user today, paid $1000 by the time he is done.
But again, we are talking about the scenario of early adopters buying top-end newly released cards, which are usually uber-expensive, because of low volume and because they haven't usually been tweaked yet to increase yields and margins. The mid-range and value cards always come later (2.5 years)
I just don't see people strapped for cash buying $500 GPUs and top of the line , FX-57 or Intel EE systems. The people I see buying these systems, of which I know many, generally have real jobs, and are not working in the college bookstore.
How do you justify buying the newest, latest and greatest top-end next-gen GPU as not "blowing money", since you know, if you simply way a few months, a "refresh" tweak will be out that is far cheaper. Where is your righteous indignation and condemnation over Platinum Edition, Extreme Edition, and Ultra Edition-style products?
There are lots of purchases in life that seem to be money "blown", like ridiculously expensive cars, or hyper-expensive stereo equipment. Just because you don't have the money to throw away, doesn't mean there isn't a market for these products that people *want*