NPD July 2008 *Rules: Post #133

[Cheezdoodles]

Regarding your point Joshua, isnt a forum a place to give opinions and back them up with reasons? No offence, but is numerical data and huge posts really neccessary to offer up opinions? Regardless I stand by my previous points.

While you can give opinions and back them up with reasons, you have to base them on something real thats not completely subective and based upon nothing but imaginiation.

Speculating unproven ip's is like talking to a fortune teller, its worthless. Its impossible and completely pointless to have discussion about theories based upon thin air and hope.

Alot of the theories and opinions giving in these NPD threads lately are so far fetched and based upon nothing but fantasy that ive allmost stopped reading them completely aside from reading the numbers.

The discussions and arguments that follow around these far fetched theories are not very intelectual and end up with two people trying to force their furtune coockie teller abilities upon eachother or trying to spin facts in their favour.

 

[Vic]

While you can give opinions and back them up with reasons, you have to base them on something real thats not completely subective and based upon nothing but imaginiation.

Speculating unproven ip's is like talking to a fortune teller, its worthless. Its impossible and completely pointless to have discussion about theories based upon thin air and hope.

Alot of the theories and opinions giving in these NPD threads lately are so far fetched and based upon nothing but fantasy that ive allmost stopped reading them completely aside from reading the numbers.

The discussions and arguments that follow around these far fetched theories are not very intelectual and end up with two people trying to force their furtune coockie teller abilities upon eachother or trying to spin facts in their favour.

Ostepop, what does hope have to do anything? Please dont criticise me for offering an opinion because it is quite offensive. I'm sure people also had high hopes for GOW in 2006.

Anyway how about we back to the NPD, instead of going off on tangents criticising people. Otherwise this thread may aswell be deleted.

 

[-tkf-]

It is like the poster on page 1 or 2 who was calling 7M unit sales disparity "close"

/rant

Me? i called the WW number close and i stand by it, and it´s 5.6 Million btw. No reason to prove your own point ;-)

 

[liolio]

@D3B:
Thanks for proving Joshua's point.

I agree it was really nice to read from him as it looks that he was bsuy for quiet a while.

Hi! Joshua nice to read from you, clever talk as usual

 

[V3]

umm, you left out the biggest part of LBP.... the level creating and character customization. not everyone has the same taste in games. i don't really find it all that appealing either (mainly because i prefer action, shooters, racing and sports games) but i can see LBP appealing to many people, moreso with casual gamers.

Casual gamers aren't going to fork out the money for PS3 just for LBP. LBP is not Wii Sport. It won't move PS3. I am not even sure it'll appeal to large part of current PS3 owners. LBP is going to be a budget title isn't ? I just don't see large part of current PS3 owners will fork out $50-60 for LBP.

Level creation and character customization are the domain of hardcore gamers. Casual gamers don't spend enough time with gaming to bother with them. In term of user creation, Spore will be out soon. LBP won't hold a candle next to it.

 

[zed]

I dont know why I used 10months for the trending figure last time
3,6,12 months + in (also november also 24months) are more logical values when dealing with dates

 

[obonicus]

In-depth analysis at EDGE here.

 

[Nesh]

The data at EDGE are for the US right?

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Ostepop, what does hope have to do anything? Please dont criticise me for offering an opinion because it is quite offensive. .

Arguments\opinions and discussions around future new ip's sales potential is completely worthless, as its based upon nothing but thin air and a gamers hope for a title.The NPD threads are reduced to these furtuneteller discussions which adds nothing as its all subjective.

 

[liolio]

The data at EDGE are for the US right?

Absolutely

I find datas about how last gen gamers (the ps2 is basically THE last generation ssytem) are shifting into next gen.
Whether or not Nintendo extends the gaming demographic the Wii steals gamers from Sony and Ms. In fact it gather more gamers owning last gen systems than the two other systems and while we have no datas about it I would be surprized if this trend is indeed getting stronger (I based this on the crazy high Wii sales).
My point is (as in my previous post) while reaching a lower street price will help the ps360 they will still have to challenge the Wii (the wii is super strong, the price is not even that low and Nintendo has so much room to lower the price that it's not even fun).

In regard to the Sony vs Ms battle America doesn't tell the whole picture so I will pass as without accurate european datas (per month to see the trend) it resolves to much around pure speculation (I hold to my last point Ms faces a challenge but I won't any further).

 

[Arwin]

The data at EDGE are for the US right?

They are the same NPD figures we've been discussing (plus a bit extra they received from NPD). So I'd say that's obvious?

 

[liolio]

I don't know if it's clever to post this so mods feel free to delete (or paste in the proper topic there may be one about Ms strategy).
Here's an "news" (I wouldn't not call it an article) from ars:
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080817-microsoft.html
which questions Ms situation worldwide. I think we can avoid the "fan war" it's a matter of questioning Ms strategy (we really miss per month european datas in this regard).


PS Mods it might really be the wrong topic so once again if there is a more proper thread

EDIT I don't think that all the points in this news are bothering but I think there is enough truth to it to discuss the matter (well avoid the doom and gloom rant would nice obviously).

 

[StefanS]

This is a conditional reopening of the thread.

If the discussion deteriorates to level of trolling and insults, it will be locked.

Posters who disregard common sense and common civil behavior are subject to further mod action.

 

[AzBat]

Let me tiptoe back into the thread...

Here's some analysis of Xbox 360's NPD numbers from Jesse Divnich at Gamasutra...

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=19876

Too much there to quote here, but it's a good read nonetheless.

Tommy McClain

 

[obonicus]

Just for context, these were EEDAR predictions for July: here.

The gamasutra article is a little funnier I think, in that context. 'Yeah, we were way off, but if you kinda sorta look at it this way, it's not that wrong'.

 

[DrJay24]

Too much there to quote here, but it's a good read nonetheless.

Tommy McClain

That was a bit too much like spin for my taste, he even put why at the end.

I should note that one analyst did point out a flaw in my logic. Consumers are not as educated on the different models; in fact, most consumers are only aware of the Pro model.

Here is another nugget:

Those who had planned to buy an Arcade model in July, however, were likely attracted by the offer.

 

[-tkf-]

I don't know if it's clever to post this so mods feel free to delete (or paste in the proper topic there may be one about Ms strategy).
Here's an "news" (I wouldn't not call it an article) from ars:
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080817-microsoft.html
which questions Ms situation worldwide. I think we can avoid the "fan war" it's a matter of questioning Ms strategy (we really miss per month european datas in this regard).


PS Mods it might really be the wrong topic so once again if there is a more proper thread

EDIT I don't think that all the points in this news are bothering but I think there is enough truth to it to discuss the matter (well avoid the doom and gloom rant would nice obviously).

They could make the same points without being so agressive, that would make it the article more worthy. I think it´s to harsh.

Their last line is the best piece of that article:

What's clear is that the competition is now much stronger across the board, and that's a good thing for gamers.

 

[Vic]

Arguments\opinions and discussions around future new ip's sales potential is completely worthless, as its based upon nothing but thin air and a gamers hope for a title.The NPD threads are reduced to these furtuneteller discussions which adds nothing as its all subjective.

Uh oh, I guess predictions about future NPD sales are a no-no then

I agree tkf, that article was a little harsh.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Uh oh, I guess predictions about future NPD sales are a no-no then

Wow, are you really having that hard of a time grasping the concept here??

Discussions about future NPD sales are ok because we have actual historical sales data to look at, we have short term as well as long term trends, and year to year comparisons etc etc...

Meanwhile, you're telling us your 'gut feeling' about how LBP will do at retail, which is really not interesting, not going to stimulate any valid debate, and is just plain fortune telling. There's no historical comparisons, it's a totally new IP, there's nothing to base your prediction on, so what's the value there??

If everyone just spouts their random opinion, based on nothing but their own hunches, this forum loses alot of it's interest as a place where you can find real debates and analysis based on actual sales data.

 

[betan]

I don't get all the efforts to ban LBP discussion.
Someone thinks LBP is going to be a system seller because of causal appeal or whatever.
Another thinks PS3 is too expensive for casuals, or Spore is where user-created-content maniacs will head to.
While we may not agree on those, this is still a valid debate. And without predictions (or even fanboys) console wars are not really fun.

Admit it or not, NPD is about console wars.