NPD July 2008 *Rules: Post #133

[RobertR1]

I don't get all the efforts to ban LBP discussion.
Someone thinks LBP is going to be a system seller because of causal appeal or whatever.
Another thinks PS3 is too expensive for casuals, or Spore is where user-created-content maniacs will head to.
While we may not agree on those, this is still a valid debate. And without predictions (or even fanboys) console wars are not really fun.

Admit it or not, NPD is about console wars.

When OCT NPD comes out we can talk about LBP/Fable 2/Fallout 3 and whatever else is out that month. We don't need to talk about any of the post July games in the July NPD thread.

NPD is about sales data. If you've run out of words analyzing the EXISTING data, time to exist the thread, not drag it into the woulda/coulda/shoulda category regarding future release and thus turning it into list wars. If you want list wars, console battles and what ever else "fun" you claim to be looking for, post on gamefaqs and neogaf. You'll find plenty to fight with and against.

 

[Vic]

Wow, are you really having that hard of a time grasping the concept here??

Discussions about future NPD sales are ok because we have actual historical sales data to look at, we have short term as well as long term trends, and year to year comparisons etc etc...

Meanwhile, you're telling us your 'gut feeling' about how LBP will do at retail, which is really not interesting, not going to stimulate any valid debate, and is just plain fortune telling. There's no historical comparisons, it's a totally new IP, there's nothing to base your prediction on, so what's the value there??

If everyone just spouts their random opinion, based on nothing but their own hunches, this forum loses alot of it's interest as a place where you can find real debates and analysis based on actual sales data.

Software and hardware are intrinsically linked .

I don't get all the efforts to ban LBP discussion.
Someone thinks LBP is going to be a system seller because of causal appeal or whatever.
Another thinks PS3 is too expensive for casuals, or Spore is where user-created-content maniacs will head to.
While we may not agree on those, this is still a valid debate. And without predictions (or even fanboys) console wars are not really fun.

Admit it or not, NPD is about console wars.

Absolutely. The likes of LBP and Fable will influence hardware sales in the winter. How much future games can convince gamers to 'jump in' is an interesting and important point of discussion.

 

[eastmen]

I don't know if it's clever to post this so mods feel free to delete (or paste in the proper topic there may be one about Ms strategy).
Here's an "news" (I wouldn't not call it an article) from ars:
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080817-microsoft.html
which questions Ms situation worldwide. I think we can avoid the "fan war" it's a matter of questioning Ms strategy (we really miss per month european datas in this regard).


PS Mods it might really be the wrong topic so once again if there is a more proper thread

EDIT I don't think that all the points in this news are bothering but I think there is enough truth to it to discuss the matter (well avoid the doom and gloom rant would nice obviously).

That is just going to start a fight. For instance

The problem is, these games are still on the PlayStation 3, and Microsoft isn't offering much in the way of improvements to these titles.

Is there a reason why the cheaper console should have to have better or improved verisons of these games. Should the more expensive system have the improved verisons to be worth spending the extra money on. Also doesn't some of these games like gta4 and fallout 3 have improvements in the form of dlc for the xbox 360 , while other games like bioshock have been out for a year on the platform.

we don't know how many discs Final Fantasy XIII

But the game is on the system, if its two discs , its two discs , if its three its three , however its still an option that wasn't there last time and who knows ms can still work out a deal (or may have already) to have exclusive dlc on this title , predicting the future esp when its at least a year away sucks .

What else does Microsoft have in the way of exclusives? Halo is a system-seller, sure, but Metal Gear Solid IV is still a PS3 exclusive. Microsoft has many solid racing franchises, but nothing like the power that Gran Turismo brings to the system

Well halo and gears is still exclusive to the system , you also have your fables , banjos and too humans. each system has their exclusives and I think between now and the end of december ms will have at least 8-12 big exclusives on their hands . 1 of them is a proven title from earlier in the gen that sold what 5m copies , something I don't think any of sonys fall or early winter titles can top. So I don't see how this is a weak spot. MS actually has some strong genres that were normaly ps2 teritory but now with square ms actually has the better line up this holiday.

The PS3 has one of the most anticipated casual games ever with LittleBigPlanet, and the branding of Sackboy is already amazingly strong.

Really , is there any proof , where are the huge articles on Time or other casual mags that show people anticpating LBP or reserving it or talking about. Outside of the hardcore websites there isn't much noise.

Add idiosyncratic games, such as Flower, that are coming to the PS3 and Nintendo's absolute dominance of the casual market, and you have a gaming world where cherry-picking old franchises is no longer enough. Gears of War 2 looks great, but Resistance 2 and Killzone 2 look just as good in terms of scale, graphics, and online play.

And , gears of war has apealed to 5m gamers which is more than both resistance 1 and killzone 1 brought in combined. Not to mention that once again MS has another dozen or so exclusives to fall back on in just this holiday season and is the cheaper of the two consoles.

Will Halo be enough in the future? With Bungie now independent

Isn't Konami and MGS4 indepdent companys like bungie is ? Doesn't MS also have a first right of publishing or something like that which Sony doesn't have with Konami. So I don't see why this is big.

Heck, in Japan, the big story is the sales of Sony's PSP.

Which are now back under Ds Lite weekly sales ? The 360 gets a big boost when big games come out too , we can see that in this weeks sales from japan.

the 360 simply has to step it up outside of the US.

Hasn't the 360 outsold the xbox in all markets already or with this holiday season? Hasn't it also done it so far at a higher price point for a longer period of time compared to the xbox . I believe that is the 360 stepping it up.

Microsoft also has to pay attention to the hard drive of the PS3. The drives are large, getting larger with the standard systems,

isn't it in fact the 360 thta offers the biggest in the box hardrive? While I agree with him that adding your own of any size is great , the simple fact of the matter is that not many people are going to go through the process anyway. The 360 is a much easier pop and click set up. They both have their pros and cons but considering the 360s game installs are not mandatory and the ps3 does have mandatory installs on some games , the 360 space should actually last longer for the average user. MS can allways adjust the price of the hardrive. The 60 gig drive is already a better deal than the 20 gig drive it replaces , it comes with 3 free months of live and some other things as well.

There is also the fact that Sony's online offerings are free. Yes, Xbox Live is better

Well there you go. Its better and thats why you pay more. What amounts to $3 a month more than sony. That may change in the future but its a moot point as ms can allways adjust the price of live.

Sony's newly-launched in-game XMB adds a ton of functionality, and the Trophies it brings seem to be gaining popularity;

Features the 360 already has and trophys are just features the 360 already had in gamer points also.

Sony just upgraded the xmb and their online , but ms has their own updates coming in the next few months which will once again put them further ahead.

There is also the fact that Sony has the Blu-ray drive, provides strong multimedia functions on its system in general

Aside from bluray and the psp everything the ps3 can do , the xbox 360 can do and with netflix it can do something that sony can't do. Bluray movies are $20-$40 a pop and are very expensive and the psp is great with ripping movies to it , however I can do the same with my Zune. So I really don't see the ponit , remote play is nice but you need a wifi hot spot to make use of it.

How should Microsoft fix these issues

Half of this is just fan boy crap. How does MS with the cheaper console make 3rd party games even better than the ps3.... well they are doing that now by being cheaper and also by having some third party games feature exclusive DLC that isn't avalible on the ps3.

If the rumors are correct and we see a price cut this fall they will once again make 3rd party games better by setting the price of entry to play these at $200 less than the PS3 offers. Bluray and some other things may become problems next year , but ms can allways change many of the problems by adjusting prices.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I don't get all the efforts to ban LBP discussion.
Someone thinks LBP is going to be a system seller because of causal appeal or whatever.
Another thinks PS3 is too expensive for casuals, or Spore is where user-created-content maniacs will head to.
While we may not agree on those, this is still a valid debate.

Yes, but the quality of debate is certainly questionable. How far do we cast our predictions?

"MS are securing third-party exclusives. I bet they hve some awesome games in the works we haven't heard of and one'll totally pwn Sony and I reckon it's going to sell at least 10 million extra XB360s".

Ergo XB360 is going to rule. How can we even argue such a point?! The only way to argue against a title being a big system seller is to get into the nitty-gritty of title discussion, why a game is going to appeal or not, which is mostly subjective based on here-say, and takes the (always awkward) NPD thread way off mark. Comparing titles and our perceptions of whether they're good or not will invariably lead to lot of terse replies and rolly-eyes. No, seriously, I'm utterly impressed with the way people use these smilies to really extend their arguments.

And without predictions (or even fanboys) console wars are not really fun. Admit it or not, NPD is about console wars.

And like it or not, this board isn't about console wars. NPD is great for looking at the current situation and discussing how decisions made have affected unit sales to date. Once it drifts off into extensive prediction making on overall company success, IMO it's served its usefulness. I haven't been around the past few days to follow this thread, but from what I've seen in catching up, I vote for the thread to be locked, but leave it to another mod to decide what the purpose of this thread now and whether it'll serve it.

 

[joker454]

The PS3 has one of the most anticipated casual games ever with LittleBigPlanet, and the branding of Sackboy is already amazingly strong.

It'll be interesting to see if LBP does indeed move more units in the next sales thread. Typically what I hear is that casuals in general avoid the 360/PS3 for a variety of reasons, one of which is the controllers which they find too confusing and/or intimidating. It would be surprising if one game can suddenly reverse that, but I guess we'll see.

 

[betan]

When OCT NPD comes out we can talk about LBP/Fable 2/Fallout 3 and whatever else is out that month. We don't need to talk about any of the post July games in the July NPD thread.

Good, can you please explain why people like you limit the objection to LBP predictions, but not for example, rumored 360 price drop, or Gears 2.

NPD is about sales data. If you've run out of words analyzing the EXISTING data, time to exist the thread, not drag it into the woulda/coulda/shoulda category regarding future release and thus turning it into list wars. If you want list wars, console battles and what ever else "fun" you claim to be looking for, post on gamefaqs and neogaf. You'll find plenty to fight with and against.

I tend to forget prediction means fanboy list wars but nothing else.
Thanks for the reminder.

Yes, but the quality of debate is certainly questionable.

That's always an issue, not limited to predictions.

And like it or not, this board isn't about console wars.

I think there is a difference between being about console wars, and having a place for console wars.
Just an observation, but if we look at popular thread topics, they are always dictated by console wars.
Exclusive PS3 game threads, the early revelation by dear one of Halo 3 resolution and leading "hall of fame" neverending upscaling thread, the whole dvd/blu-ray debate, etc.

I literally hate console fanboyism poping up everyone, but there should be a place for it, it seems unavoidable. Plus, it's not like people who object are any less "biased", politely speaking.

NPD is great for looking at the current situation and discussing how decisions made have affected unit sales to date. Once it drifts off into extensive prediction making on overall company success, IMO it's served its usefulness.

I haven't been around the past few days to follow this thread, but from what I've seen in catching up, I vote for the thread to be locked, but leave it to another mod to decide what the purpose of this thread now and whether it'll serve it.

I'm not a moderator, thus have no idea about sideeffects of letting non-technical threads go wild.
But this constant need for moderation, or lack of self-moderation, doesn't speak well about us posters here.

ps: I hope we get top 20 software at least. I'm still wondering about Civ Rev PS3.

 

[liolio]

Eastmen I was reluctant to link this news because as Vic stated it somewhat harsh, in fact I would say that it is on purpose polemic and on top of expressing an opinion the non fainted goal of this kind a news is to have some more visitors
I stated that i found some points not bothering, as I don't care care that much for technical choices that feed the "fan boys war" (example optical supports, the N64 had great games every systems have/had limitations everything man made in fact).

I think you are "over reacting" on some points that purposely made polemic. I think the news could three time shorter while keeping points worse a discussion.
Basically for me it's:
Sony is catching up with its online offer.
Sony online offer is free.
Sony has more editing power.
Sony has likely caught up in user base in Europe
Sony still can't be dismissed in japan
Sony has catch up in sales rate in US

I would pass on titles specifics comments (as cristal balls have failed quiet often lately ) and on some functionnality advantages (due to price considerations as you pointed at) and the wii as the wii is stealing consumers from both sony and microsoft ans thus is a challenge for both.

That's it and I think more and more that Ms strategy should be discussed in a proper the same way Sony's one is. It's the NPD thread and thus it should focus on US sales. In US both Ms and Sony are likely to do well, who will come on top (Edit for this fall)? I would say Ms but it's a personal bet and it's not that important as they will be close enough for this round. Sony won't close the gap in instal base anytime soon.

But if you start to consider the whole picture, it's a different matter especially as these systems are here to stay a long time. Ms would be way more weaken if they lose editors traction (ie ps3 user base start to be greater than 360's one). That's my concern and why I agree with some of the news points.
Even if things go well in US Ms have to fight in its strong territory (that said price is a good start), and in Europe. In Europe price cut has slightly slowdown sony catching up but without proper strategy they are for thread this winter (and the ps3 price is still high, too high).

I think Ms must do some strategic moves and aim at lower revenue (not loss) for greater good.
EDIT
I don't want to make it sounds like it's an emergency as price advantage even in Europe will be a leveler.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I literally hate console fanboyism poping up everyone, but there should be a place for it, it seems unavoidable. Plus, it's not like people who object are any less "biased", politely speaking.

There is, it's called neogaf. If people want to talk about future games it's best done in the specific game thread. NPD discussion should be about sales trends and predictions based on NPD values, not completely subjective "which game is going to be better".

Lock this thread it's obviously going nowhere anymore.

 

[Vic]

Eastmen I was reluctant to link this news because as Vic stated it somewhat harsh, in fact I would say that it is on purpose polemic and on top of expressing an opinion the non fainted goal of this kind a news is to have some more visitors
I stated that i found some points not bothering, as I don't care care that much for technical choices that feed the "fan boys war" (example optical supports, the N64 had great games every systems have/had limitations everything man made in fact).

I think you are "over reacting" on some points that purposely made polemic. I think the news could three time shorter while keeping points worse a discussion.
Basically for me it's:
Sony is catching up with its online offer.
Sony online offer is free.
Sony has more editing power.
Sony has likely caught up in user base in Europe
Sony still can't be dismissed in japan
Sony has catch up in sales rate in US

I would pass on titles specifics comments (as cristal balls have failed quiet often lately ) and on some functionnality advantages (due to price considerations as you pointed at) and the wii as the wii is stealing consumers from both sony and microsoft ans thus is a challenge for both.

That's it and I think more and more that Ms strategy should be discussed in a proper the same way Sony's one is. It's the NPD thread and thus it should focus on US sales. In US both Ms and Sony are likely to do well, who will come on top? I would say Ms but it's a personal bet and it's not that important as they will be close enough for this round. Sony won't close the gap in instal base anytime soon.

But if you start to consider the whole picture, it's a different matter especially as these systems are here to stay a long time. Ms would be way more weaken if they lose editors traction (ie ps3 user base start to be greater than 360's one). That's my concern and why I agree with some of the news points.
Even if things go well in US Ms have to fight in its strong territory (that said price is a good start), and in Europe. In Europe price cut has slightly slowdown sony catching up but without proper strategy they are for thread this winter (and the ps3 price is still high, too high).

I think Ms must do some strategic moves and aim at lower revenue (not loss) for greater good.
EDIT
I don't want to make it sounds like it's an emergency as even price advantage even in Europe will be a leveler.

The article is harsh but it does make some good points. People can bring up price, but 2008 has shown that its not an issue for the PS3 as it is outselling the 360. In any case, if you want Live! you've got to pay for it. Same with wi-fi and the expensive HDD's.

Also, in terms of line-up, MS has a lot of RPG's coming but if these dont sell well in the US, MS could be in trouble at Christmas because this years data would suggest they'll be significantly behind in Japan and Europe, especially with regards to the Wii.

 

[Archgamer]

IMO, MS can't do anything against the PS3 in Europe and Japan now. They have already attempted everything from major price cuts to softwares bundles that only lead to short term advantage. I expect ToV release to drop like a rock. The PS3 continues to regains momentum without having to be the aggressors.

 

[liolio]

IMO, MS can't do anything against the PS3 in Europe and Japan now. They have already attempted everything from major price cuts to softwares bundles that only lead to short term advantage. I expect ToV release to drop like a rock. The PS3 continues to regains momentum without having to be the aggressors.

I can't respond your post nor Vic one, I feel like derailing the topic...
But if I've time tomorrow I may open a topic about Ms strategy or if somebody feels in mood
There is a lot more to it than Us sales and discussing it here may prevent further discussions about the top20 (for this month)for example or others iteration of this thread

 

[one]

You'll see whether these predictions become true or not in months after all, it's like a betting game.

 

[NavNucST3]

They could make the same points without being so agressive, that would make it the article more worthy. I think it´s to harsh.

Their last line is the best piece of that article:

I don't actually find it harsh, but it is another reason for my disdain for gaming "media". If your opening line contains, "...but it may be time to look at what the company is doing right... and where it's going wrong." you should probably have at least some mention of "what the company is doing right" per sub-topic. I got to the end of the "article" and I kept looking for page 2; I go to the "Discuss" page and this is how it is described by the bot: "Microsoft is feeling Sony's heat when it comes to hardware sales in the US, and the 360 continues to falter worldwide. How to fix these things is a complicated question, but Ars is ready to point out Microsoft's main weaknesses, things that need to be shored up yesterday." Had I read that somewhere before the opinion piece I would have gone in with a very different mind set, at least the bot description is accurate.

 

[eastmen]

The article is harsh but it does make some good points. People can bring up price, but 2008 has shown that its not an issue for the PS3 as it is outselling the 360. In any case, if you want Live! you've got to pay for it. Same with wi-fi and the expensive HDD's.

Also, in terms of line-up, MS has a lot of RPG's coming but if these dont sell well in the US, MS could be in trouble at Christmas because this years data would suggest they'll be significantly behind in Japan and Europe, especially with regards to the Wii.

How can you say 2008 has shown its not an issue of price. In 2008 the ps3 went from $500/$600 and 20/60 gigs to $400 for 80 gigs. not only is it up to $200 cheaper than last year but it also comes with a larger hardrive and has had perhaps its biggest Franchise from last gen (that is still exclusive) released earlier this year. At the same time The 360 up untill july cost the same as it did during half of last year and was only up to $50 less than it was last year for the other half of it.

I think what it shows is that with a proper price cut the 360 can show the large sales gains that the ps3 did over last year. In 2005 the xbox 360s average selling price was $350 and its actually gone up in 2007 and 2008 from that level.



I have the new gameinformer and the top 7 of their top 25 games of e3 are on the xbox 360 with the number 1,2 spot being xbox 360 exclusive (left 4 dead and gears) LBP didn't even enter the list untill the 8th spot and Resistance and Killzone were 22 and 25 respectively. The 360 has alot of big titles coming out and alot of exclusive stuff between the end of august and december 18th. I think its a little to soon to say what will happen this year.

I also don't understand why you bring up the Wii , I think its obvious that both consoles would have to tripple their sales in non holiday months to even stand a chance of catching that system or the wii will just simply have to stop selling completely .


What is important when looking at the 360 is its already done so much to help the xbox brand name. At the end of this holiday season they should have already outsold the xbox in all teritorys a year faster and a $150 average selling price higher. The 360 can easily hit a 40m install base which will almost double the xboxs . This will make it alot easier for ms next round through and that much harder for everyone else.

 

[Strange]

How can you say 2008 has shown its not an issue of price. In 2008 the ps3 went from $500/$600 and 20/60 gigs to $400 for 80 gigs. not only is it up to $200 cheaper than last year but it also comes with a larger hardrive and has had perhaps its biggest Franchise from last gen (that is still exclusive) released earlier this year. At the same time The 360 up untill july cost the same as it did during half of last year and was only up to $50 less than it was last year for the other half of it.

IIRC The price cut for PS3 occured at least a full YEAR ago

http://www.edge-online.com/features/sony-july-npd-will-validate-ps3-price-cut

If my memory serves me right, There was no price cut for PS3 in 2008, but rather an upgrade from 40GB to 80GB for $399?

 

[Pete]

Could you break that graph down by 4 and 5 week periods to remove the fluctuations due to the NPD reporting period?

Here you go:

Not much different than the monthly #s.

If you can identify which months are five week months, I'll update the data.

Apparently it goes like this (I corroborated this by checking with the weekly #s in their monthly and year-end NPD articles):

Incidentally, weekly rates can give a more accurate reading of how well a system is selling. Usually the retail calendar that NPD uses follows a 4-4-5 pattern for each month in a quarter, starting with January. Thus January and February typically have four weeks, but March will have five weeks. Since that system only accounts for 364 days in each year, January has an extra week (called a leap week) every few years to keep the reporting periods reasonably synchronized with the calendar. This year [Jan 2008] had such a leap week, and therefore January was five weeks long instead of four. August 2007 was a four week month.

The weekly hw sales data, taking 5-week "months" into account (starting from zed's raw #s), if anyone wants to make a nicer graph:

NPD Period	Weekly		
	360	PS3	Wii
2006-11	128	49	119
2006-12	226	98	121
2007-01	59	49	87
2007-02	57	32	84
2007-03	40	26	52
2007-04	44	21	90
2007-05	39	20	85
2007-06	40	20	76
2007-07	43	40	106
2007-08	69	33	101
2007-09	106	24	100
2007-10	92	30	130
2007-11	193	117	245
2007-12	252	159	270
2008-01	58	67	69
2008-02	64	70	108
2008-03	52	51	144
2008-04	47	47	179
2008-05	47	52	169
2008-06	44	81	133
2008-07	51	56	139

 

[catisfit]

Here you go:

Thanks, much appreciated.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

has had perhaps its biggest Franchise from last gen (that is still exclusive) released earlier this year. .

I dont understand why\how people can say that MGS is the biggest franchise. MGS is not that big, its not Sony's flagship franchise by a longshot, Gran Turismo is.

 

[eastmen]

I dont understand why\how people can say that MGS is the biggest franchise. MGS is not that big, its not Sony's flagship franchise by a longshot, Gran Turismo is.

I'm not going to argue which is bigger. However can we agree that MGS4 is at least in the top 3 exclusive sony franchises still left from last gen . Its also certianly the biggest exclusive title on either the 360 or ps3 released so far this year.

 

[catisfit]

However can we agree that MGS4 is at least in the top 3 exclusive sony franchises still left from last gen .

It's not a Sony franchise, it's a Konami franchise.