NPD July 2008 *Rules: Post #133

[djskribbles]

It's not all of them. He missed several, and that's quite a few for a bit over 4 months.

he missed several? out of the link you provided, he missed Zoids Assault, L4D and Warhammer. L4D is the only one i would consider worthy of being mentioned.

i don't care for playing the listing game either (which is why i didn't make one).

 

[obonicus]

But creating and downloading custom level are the domain of the hardcore.

I won't comment on the rest, but this isn't true. As a counter-example, check out Second Life, or even The Sims. The Sims 1 didn't even have proper support for mods, and still modding was extremely commonplace. In both of those, the 'hardcore' are the ones making the mods/levels, the others are just downloading them. From what MM has presented, the interface to get this extra content is extremely simple, but again: neither SL or The Sims have/had a simple interface to access custom content (I admit that I'm not as familiar with the situation for Sims 2). I mean, I don't get it, but playing dress-up appeals to a lot of people.

 

[djskribbles]

But creating and downloading custom level are the domain of the hardcore. Just like the other guy, I don't get the hype either. I've seen some gameplay, I just can't see anyone I know who aren't that into games, who I consider casual gamers, seeing it and go "hey, I wanna try that."

obonicus gave a perfect example... Sims type games are huge among the casual crowd (i know a few casuals who love them, and they're obviously popular judging by sales). downloading and sharing is somewhat the domain of hardcore (i guess), but creating and customizing is not just for the hardcore crowd... not by a long shot.

and you guys can save your "i know of some casual gamers who aren't interested in LBP" comments, because to be frank, they mean very little.

 

[eastmen]

he missed several? out of the link you provided, he missed Zoids Assault, L4D and Warhammer. L4D is the only one i would consider worthy of being mentioned.

i don't care for playing the listing game either (which is why i didn't make one).

I wasn't playing a listing game. I was showing that the 360 has a slew of exclusive content including exclusive content (which i feel is core gamer stuff) for other games and that they have alot of stuff to drive system sales starting the end of august with 2 human on the 18th all the way through till the end of the holidays.

 

[djskribbles]

I wasn't playing a listing game. I was showing that the 360 has a slew of exclusive content including exclusive content (which i feel is core gamer stuff) for other games and that they have alot of stuff to drive system sales starting the end of august with 2 human on the 18th all the way through till the end of the holidays.

someone listed the PS3's upcoming exclusives, and in reply, you listed the 360's. seems like you're playing the listing game to me.

anyway, i guess well see what happens. :smile:

 

[eastmen]

obonicus gave a perfect example... Sims type games are huge among the casual crowd (i know a few casuals who love them, and they're obviously popular judging by sales). downloading and sharing is somewhat the domain of hardcore (i guess), but creating and customizing is not just for the hardcore crowd... not by a long shot.

and you guys can save your "i know of some casual gamers who aren't interested in LBP" comments, because they mean very little.

I fail to see though what makes LBP special to the casuals. Are they going to invest the time and make their own levels. Is that whats going to interest them because honestly I wouldn't say those playing second life are casual gamers , not a game that has real prostitution in the game and i've never heard of any casual sim player making mods for the sim. I've heard of hardcore gamers playing the sims and making mods for it though. Is it the fact that other people the core gamer will make levels and the casuals are going to go out and download them ? I guess thats the draw but as i've said there is alot of crap that is going to be thrown into the mix and casual gamers may not want to download a bunch of bad levels before they find a gem.

I just see LBP as a core gamer um game. One that may be very good but I think many people have way to high hopes for this game which is a game that has currently gotten very little press outside the hardcore gamer segment.

 

[djskribbles]

what makes The Sims so popular? what makes Roller Coaster Tycoon so popular? i don't know about you, but i think its because of the ability to create your own thing, and the amount of customization in the games.
in LBP, you can create your own platforming level and then play it, using your own little created character with endless customization, with your friends off or online. to add to that, you can share your content.

again, i don't have much interest in LBP either. but i can easily see how LBP could potentially be a huge hit.

 

[eastmen]

what makes The Sims so popular? what makes Roller Coaster Tycoon so popular? i don't know about you, but i think its because of the ability to create your own thing, and the amount of customization in the games.
in LBP, you can create your own platforming level and then play it, using your own little created character with endless customization, with your friends off or online. to add to that, you can share your content.

again, i don't have much interest in LBP either. but i can easily see how LBP could potentially be a huge hit.

In the sims you don't make your own levels or towns , you can buy and add stuff to your houses but that is a way of thinking many people have. We all know how buy a table in real life and put it in our kitchen . Or buy a tv and put it in the bed room. What does the average person know about 2d side scrolling level design. I also don't see Roller coaster tycoon as a casual game , I know its very popular with core gamers , but I don't see moms buying it.

But i guess we will see in a few months.

 

[obonicus]

I fail to see though what makes LBP special to the casuals.

I have my doubts, myself. I see what Sony is doing, but I don't know what sort of demographic a platformer will reach.

If I were to guess, based on what I've seen, based on how the sackboys can be cute without being saccharine (I think), Sony's focusing on a specific segment of the 'casual' audience, as opposed to a scattergun approach to bring in mom and dad. I don't really want to speculate wildly here, though.

Are they going to invest the time and make their own levels. Is that whats going to interest them because honestly I wouldn't say those playing second life are casual gamers , not a game that has real prostitution in the game

Real virtual prostitution doesn't really have anything to do with it. You'd have a better point if you pointed out that SL's barely a game. Which is true; I brought it up as an example of what 'the masses' will put up with for a wide degree of customizability. Still, it's best not to dwell too much on SL, I'm even sorry I brought it up, because if you use it as a sample for anything else, you're bound to come to the conclusion that Furries are a much bigger percentage of the population than they really are.

and i've never heard of any casual sim player making mods for the sim. I've heard of hardcore gamers playing the sims and making mods for it though. Is it the fact that other people the core gamer will make levels and the casuals are going to go out and download them ? I guess thats the draw but as i've said there is alot of crap that is going to be thrown into the mix and casual gamers may not want to download a bunch of bad levels before they find a gem.

But that's what I was saying. Casuals don't make them (but if the tools are good enough, maybe they will: I think we underestimate the 'casuals') but they certainly use them. As for signal-to-noise, it's a problem, but hopefully the user rating system allows the cream to rise to the top, like other ratings systems do.

I just see LBP as a core gamer um game. One that may be very good but I think many people have way to high hopes for this game which is a game that has currently gotten very little press outside the hardcore gamer segment.

It's still relatively early, and most games don't get mainstream press coverage. Only the biggest ones do. I don't even know if GeoW2 will draw much attention from the mainstream press, the way Halo 3 did. And I think you might even be right, as to who the game actually appeals to. I don't think Sony agrees... but again, LocoRoco didn't work out so well for them, and that was an attempt at an image-change. We already had a few articles in non-gamer, specialized publications. I think we might see coverage in Newsweek (Croal) or Wired (Kohler) before the game is out, but I'm just guessing.

 

[Acert93]

is the only one i would consider worthy of being mentioned.

The bold is why the last page and a half of exchanges is worthless -- the big "I" when none of I count. Sorry, you don't!

Debating why the other guys unproven exclusives suck more, will sell less, and move fewer units is like fighting over whose make believe friend is bigger.

For an NPD thread it would be fairly relevant of the games in discussion were some known quantity with a proven track record of market impact and up/down swing. A franchise like Madden, MGS, Halo, FF, and whatnot.

But debating the sales impact/console movement of L4D, LBP in this deterministic ways is like pissing into the wind and I am sure most of us aren't enjoy the mist. No doubt games like Little Big Planet, R&C, Banjo, VP, etc broaden the market, that is a valid NPD point. Examining the sales of former titles in the franchise or sales of games in general in the genre at said console price points is another worthy NPD discussion. The impact of broadening of the software appeal in conjunction with price points and potential impact on NPD numbers based on console movement during price reductions would be interesting.

Yet whoever tossed out LBP against Gears of War 2 has no concept of market analysis or the point of these threads. LBP is a huge unknown in terms of genre, IP strength, market appeal, and the quality / polish of the finished product. It may end up being the best thing since sliced bread and become this generations GTA/Halo/Sims. Or it could be misshandled in marketing (Sony has done this with quite a few titles), confuse reviewers (unique games have a problem resonating with reviewers at times), take too long to hook consumers (you got 5 minutes to wow the consumer into a purchase), be rushed out the door (Sony has done this as well), or any other miriad of issues.

Comparing this to a title that has moved console units, is one of the best selling new IPs ever, one of the top 5 selling next gen titles, so on and so forth isn't fair to LBP nor to GeoW2. No one knows if GeoW2 tapped its market (look at how Halo sales continue to increase with each itteration) and no one knows how it is going to be received. We can make some ballpark guesses at least, based on NPD data, reviews of the former title (and comparing issues vs. what is known to have been fixed), previews, market placement, and so forth.

But this thread has essentially broken down into, "The games on my favorite console are more important than the games on your favorite console because I think my games have more appeal."

That is exactly what you guys sound like and this has nothing to do with NPD!!

For the record, if LBP sold 50% as many titles as Gears of War 2 did and inches Sony closer to MS's 2006 (let alone 2007) holiday console unit sales compared to where they were last year LBP will have been a SMASHING success. It doesn't need to top Gears of War (circa 2006) to be a vitally important title or a huge success. Those trying to set it up against GeoW2 (or GeoW1) and how it will move more units (HW and/or SW) are really farting into the wind as you have nothing to base these things on and are setting up LBP for failure because very, very few titles ever reach the success GeoW1 did in terms of new IPs. And this includes many amazing titles. GeoW1 was at the right place, right time when the market was smaller, more impressionable, and catered to a huge demographic: gamers who like shooters and gore and dieing for the next big shooter to evolve the genre and validate their console purchase with pretty graphics and features. It had unbelievable marketing behind it as well. It is now an established IP and seeing as GeoW2 is a more feature rich game, is well known with huge marketing behind it, and the centerpiece of MS's fall lineup and catering to a huge demographic of shooter fans (look how popular the genre is on XBL and how GeoW1 still ranks in the top 10 every week) as well as upcoming price drops for the holidays and I think this discussion is crazy! We know GeoW2 is going to be a big seller in spite of how much it progresses over the first; as gamers we can hope LBP turns out as hyped (we don't know yet) and that it moves the market toward this sort of collaborative, user defined game experience. People are moving that way (Forge in Halo 3, full map editor in the console version of Far Cry 2, etc) and LBP could be a vital title to evolve the market. Or it could flop and/or Sony could really screw up the marketing.

But it seems some of you are using the NPD thread as a console wars thread instead of an oppurtunity to look at the sales picture, both big and small, and how it affects the industry from fiscal and creative standpoints. It is like the poster on page 1 or 2 who was calling 7M unit sales disparity "close" or another who was trying to project attach rate, via install base ratios, as relevant to software sales strength. We all make mistakes but these threads have become VERY devoid of actual analysis based on what is know and more of an emphasis now on what one wishes to happen.

/rant

 

[Vic]

i don't think sony has more exclusives this year. I don't know why you post bioshock for ps3 , its already out for the xbox 360. Ms has a bunch of exclusives and with out going into list wars they have Too human , fable 2 , viva piniata 2 , banjo , Gears 2 , Naruto broken bonds , tale of vespa , Infinite Undiscovery and scene it 2 off the top of my head. These are all out by the end of december and are all exclusive or time exclusive. So I don't see MS hurting for exclusive titles this year They will have alot to advertise and gears will sell some impressive numbers and most likely get some news attention. Are these as unique as LBP ? Mabye not but there is something for everyone on the 360 and some proven exclusives which LBP isn't.

Uhh...because I listing all the shooters out this winter, thus highlighting the fact that GOW2 will do well to stand out from the crowd.

It'll interesting to see how Banjo, Viva Pinata and Tales of Vespa, but I dont hink any are system sellers in the US.

 

[Vic]

the argument that LBP > gears2 is silly at this point, one completely unproven ip vs sequel to a 5 million selling title?

While LBP has lots of potential, no logical argument can be formed with LBP outselling geow2. Unless your just gonna be basing this on your own personal impressions and guessing that is... and that is frankly worthless.

Basically what your saying is that "you think LBP will outsell Geow2, because you like the trailers\previews". Which is just the same as saying "LBP > Geow2 because i said so. "

Personally i could care less about geow2 but i think people should atleast try to make serious arguments, as its completely pointless to try and discuss which future title will outsell when you haven't actually played the games. Grow up

I think maybe you need to re-read what was said. I said that LBP will broaden the demographics of the PS3, more than GOW2 will the 360. Look at Halo 3. It sold great among the userbase, but how many new gamers did it bring in? I think thats an intangible that is debateable.

 

[woundingchaney]

I think maybe you need to re-read what was said. I said that LBP will broaden the demographics of the PS3, more than GOW2 will the 360. Look at Halo 3. It sold great among the userbase, but how many new gamers did it bring in? I think thats an intangible that is debateable.

Console sales during the release window of Halo 3 were the among the highest the system has ever seen. I think it is very safe to say that Halo 3 brought many new consumers to the 360. Whether these consumers are of a different demographic than what the 360 was already geared to is of course unlikely, but I do think that many of the consumers wouldnt picked up a 360 without the existence of Halo 3.

My issue with LBP is that we have an attractive title geared toward the casual gamers though the system itself is not geared towards this demographic. It is one thing to attempt to persuade casual gamers towards the Wii when everything about the console speaks to the demographic from the interface, interaction, price, to the library. Given the realities of the PS3 (library, cost, etc) I dont expect LBP to push the system in the same ways that a MGS or KZ title will. I dont see LBP being enough incentive for casuals to pick up a 400usd console nor am I overly sure a casual gamer is going to give it much of a second glance. I think we have a tendency to romanticize titles of this nature.

 

[Acert93]

I think maybe you need to re-read what was said. I said that LBP will broaden the demographics of the PS3, more than GOW2 will the 360. Look at Halo 3. It sold great among the userbase, but how many new gamers did it bring in? I think thats an intangible that is debateable.

A couple points:

1.) "LBP will broaden the demographics of the PS3, more than GOW2 will the 360" this assumes (a) LBP will have a certain level of success and (b) that the non-PS3/360 potential consumer base is already tapped for games of GeoW2 ilk. This goes right back to the assumptives I noted above and is really console war bickering with no contribution based on data outside of "I" opinions. What is to stop someone from saying "Banjo & Viva will broaden the 360 demographic more than LBP on the PS3" ?? NOTHING! It is all subjective.

At least offer some data as a starting point to project, and be mindful that data is interpretive and your own projections are worthless and should put in the context of, "I am waiting to see if they follow through" instead of this absolute banter.

2.) "Look at Halo 3. It sold great among the userbase, but how many new gamers did it bring in?" Halo 3 sold better than the two previous version (H3 > H2 > H1 in sales) So it was either appealing to more Xbox consumers or... drawing in new consumers. The 360 had great holiday sales in 2007 with a big spike for the Halo 3 release as well as better overall holiday sales than 2006. Seeing as the Xbox 360 is primed to pass Xbox total sales a year faster and Halo 3 is the best selling Halo to date, you could make all sorts of arguements. We don't have the sort of data to say anything definitive, other than that the 360, with less consumers than the Xbox, sold more Halo 3s than the Xbox sold Halo 2s and that there was a significant sales spike with Halo 3's release. This all points to the 360 marketshare growing in relation to Halo as well as Halo drawing in consumers who previously did not buy Halo 2.

3.) "I think thats an intangible that is debateable." Why even debate it? Halo 3 sold better than Halo 2; the 360 saw unprecidented unit movement in the Halo 3 holiday blah blah blah. There are so many factors it is difficult to pin exacting impact, but there is no denying it had an impact. It moved units, we know that. It increased its fan base, we know that. How "large" the impact was and direct correlation makes so many assumptions that are unecessary to begin with as the total platform and market momentum don't happen in a vacuum. What isn't debatable is the impact of LBP, which it has had no effect that can be measured in any kind.

Which is why saying, "LBP will broaden the demographics of the PS3, more than GOW2 will the 360" is a worthless point of discussion. No one knows that ... but you are ready to quibble over the impact of Halo 3 which has at least some point of reference. This isn't like we are discussing MGS4, Madden 2008, Halo 3, Gears of War, etc where we can look at some sales data, trending, and put them into a bigger picture--with reservations and limitations.

Will LBP will result in some sales (almost every game does to some degree). It will appeal to consumers who didn't formerly jump on the bandwagon. But we have no clue what the sales expectations, unit sales, demographic consumption, etc of the title will be. This is called cheerleading and really doesn't have anything to do with LBP but with PS3/360 wars. I know LBP is an appealing title to some of the regulars here but this is getting ridiculous as it is vieled console wars.

How about some relevant analysis how LBP is going to move a $399 console with what appears to be competitors at $249 and (soon?) $199 this holiday in NA? How is LBP broadening a demographic more so than Banjo and VP2 ($40 games?) on a $199 console?

Sony has had a great H12008 with a number of their biggest titles being released and they have a great H2 lineup as well. How about some points on how Sony has captured some sales momentum in H1 and how they will use marketing, price points, and key release dates to maintain this momentum in holiday sales and best the 360 in total 2008 sales. Why are we expecting the 360 to cool off in 2008 holiday sales (see 2006, 2007)? How have their big titles sold this year and how did it corresond to console unit movement? What is the "recession" doing to the market?

Heck, my company is laying off people next week and we are expecting more in the next 90 days. Do you think I (or my unemployed coworkers) will be buying software and consoles when we are jobless?

We cannot measure every nuance of the consumer market, but it is a lot more valid than, "I like this title and think it will outsell al these other games!"

 

[Acert93]

My issue with LBP is that we have an attractive title geared toward the casual gamers though the system itself is not geared towards this demographic. It is one thing to attempt to persuade casual gamers towards the Wii when everything about the console speaks to the demographic from the interface, interaction, price, to the library. Given the realities of the PS3 (library, cost, etc) I dont expect LBP to push the system in the same ways that a MGS or KZ title will. I dont see LBP being enough incentive for casuals to pick up a 400usd console nor am I overly sure a casual gamer is going to give it much of a second glance. I think we have a tendency to romanticize titles of this nature.

Good points. Put LBP on the Wii and I think you would be seeing some serious chatter in regards to potential markup shakeup due to the install base, innovation, cost of entry, and overlap in demographics. I remember back to R&C, which was a very good game, and it just didn't get the traction you should have because of the cost of the platform. The Sims is relevant parallel where initially the game really didn't require a gaming PC, it was open to a huge demographic of hardware owners as the casual market it was after didn't invest in gaming specific hardware. A reverse example on the Wii is MP3, which was an amazing title at its release, which didn't quite get the traction you would expect of a title of its quality. Why? 1) The title didn't appeal as strongly to the Wii users and 2) the other platforms were holding the genres fans focus, the lack of MP being a huge missing feature which typical fans of the genre put as a significant selling point.

Being great doesn't guarantee success, sadly.

 

[Vic]

Console sales during the release window of Halo 3 were the among the highest the system has ever seen. I think it is very safe to say that Halo 3 brought many new consumers to the 360. Whether these consumers are of a different demographic than what the 360 was already geared to is of course unlikely, but I do think that many of the consumers wouldnt picked up a 360 without the existence of Halo 3.

My issue with LBP is that we have an attractive title geared toward the casual gamers though the system itself is not geared towards this demographic. It is one thing to attempt to persuade casual gamers towards the Wii when everything about the console speaks to the demographic from the interface, interaction, price, to the library. Given the realities of the PS3 (library, cost, etc) I dont expect LBP to push the system in the same ways that a MGS or KZ title will. I dont see LBP being enough incentive for casuals to pick up a 400usd console nor am I overly sure a casual gamer is going to give it much of a second glance. I think we have a tendency to romanticize titles of this nature.

I agree with that point. Sony has been putting a lot of emphasis on Blu-ray and the PS3's multimedia capabilities. But I do think the game could help get those gamers to buy the PS3.

Regarding your point Joshua, isnt a forum a place to give opinions and back them up with reasons? No offence, but is numerical data and huge posts really neccessary to offer up opinions? Regardless I stand by my previous points.

Anyway, I think you're going off the point. I think its obvious that PS3 and 360 are very close in the US, while Wii continues to have the momentum.

 

[Arwin]

Yes, the point that the PS3 isn't currently a mass-market device has been raised before, also in the context of LBP. However, as then the point stands that it's important for the PS3 to keep getting titles that will bring it closer to the mass-market and/or make it ready once the price hits mass market appeal.

It's a matter of stars aligning, and it would be foolish to think that LBP is alone. But LBP has a lot of potential, and at the very least it has captured the hearts of the press. Now it's a matter of capturing the hearts of the masses, and whether they will succeed at that beyond the regular PS3 crowd remains to be seen of course. But every title that is at least an additional reason for people to want a Playstation 3 (next to say Buzz, or Singstar, or Home, or PSN games, EyeToy, BluRay, or MGS4, etc.) is one more.

We shouldn't overhype each great title for the PS3 as the next big differentiator. The worst example I can think of personally is LocoRoco, which I thought (and sitll think) is one of the best new platformers of all times, but wasn't as nearly as big a hit commercially as it was critically, and certainly wasn't appreciated by even a large part of the PSP demographic, where the DS audience would probably have liked it a lot more (I still run into kids occasionally that remember me for having lent them my PSP at some party to play LocoRoco, even though the PSP is now called a Nintendo in their minds ).

It's just one more drop in the bucket, but it has at the very least the potential to become a splash. I'm hoping that it does, but it's no means a sure thing.

 

[Acert93]

Regarding your point Joshua, isnt a forum a place to give opinions and back them up with reasons?

This isn't "a forum." There are a lot of "forums" out there. There is a specific purpose for these forums and the goal was to be different in regards to how information is exchanged. If you mean by "reason" sales data, demographic analysis, reserved projections from such, then by all means reason away. If by reason you toss out sales comparisons based on personal platform/game appeal... then formerly the answer was a decisive NO!

No offence, but is numerical data and huge posts really neccessary to offer up opinions? Regardless I stand by my previous points.

Opinions are like noses, they all smell.

And it is this attitude, that actual analysis of data is subplanted by subjective whims makes these threads devoid of value. And I stand by that statement as well.

Anyway, I think you're going off the point. I think its obvious that PS3 and 360 are very close in the US, while Wii continues to have the momentum.

There have been a number of points, many with no bases in any substantial analysis other than opinion. I am fine with opinions but people are putting depositing them dogmatically and offering nothing substantial in corollary or rooted in factual metrics to have any value.

As for this last point, just checking VGchartz and ~6.7M as "close" in NA, then yeah. Then again that 6.7M unit install base difference in NA is 21% larger than the total PS3 NA install base. When the gap is larger than total installed units that isn't close at all. Monthly sales have been +/-15% for most of 2008, so that is a notable shift from 2007, but in terms of total market base and software unit sales they aren't very close at all. And the Wii is laughing all the way to the bank compared to both in HW sales. So we agree there. But all that is general.

Predicting LBP>GeoW2 without addressing any of the specific difficulties (as very lightly noted) has nothing to do with NPD/Data analysis and the dogmatics of such is worthy.

 

[Acert93]

Yes, the point that the PS3 isn't currently a mass-market device has been raised before, also in the context of LBP. However, as then the point stands that it's important for the PS3 to keep getting titles that will bring it closer to the mass-market and/or make it ready once the price hits mass market appeal.

Absolutely. And if LBP is indeed a cross-demographic title that appeals to the current install base and has legs to appeal to new consumers now and down the road even better!

Now it's a matter of capturing the hearts of the masses, and whether they will succeed at that beyond the regular PS3 crowd remains to be seen of course.

Exactly. And as a gamer the general idea and applications LBP is applying to its genre are buzz inducing. Even if it fails it demonstrates developers and a lot of gamers are pushing toward these goals.

But every title that is at least an additional reason for people to want a Playstation 3 (next to say Buzz, or Singstar, or Home, or PSN games, EyeToy, BluRay, or MGS4, etc.) is one more.

Lets not forget the bread-and-butter games. I think that is one thing Ninny squarely did: cast off a large segment of gamers. MS, for example, has had a hard time stretching its legs outside its core demographics. But, big but, even when they stretch out they continue to sponsor titles like Halo, Gears, Forza, Mass Effect, and so forth.

The Socoms, Resistances, Motorstorms, GTs, etc of the world are really essential to your platform health in the HD world. Just look at the sales of these titles and their popularity. Socom was a huge game online for the PS2; I sometimes find it confusing how a new Socom didn't appear within a 2 year window of the PS3 release to foster on the PS3 network. These bread and butter titles are pretty important on a number of fronts. One is that the casual games market is really being assaulted by Ninny and they have a price point to go with it. That is pretty tough to crack. The traditional gamers also buy a lot of software.

Looking to new IPs with new concepts to push a platform is a crapshoot. Not impossible, but we just don't know. At the $399 price point I think looking at the last generation and looking at the 360, we do know that certain games do sell well. This is substantiated by how certain cross platform titles do quite well on the PS3. Good racers/shooters have a market and can draw new consumers in as well. As the library grows, and the backlibrary grows and becomes cheaper (big selling point to use laggards) this makes a platform more appealing.

It's just one more drop in the bucket, but it has at the very least the potential to become a splash. I'm hoping that it does, but it's no means a sure thing.

As NavNuc has pointed out, there is no single "it" thing that determines success, let alone run away success. It is unfortunate that sometimes really great games get overlooked. I don't think LBP will be overlooked, but if it is a great game there is nothing ensuring it will be a platform defining title in terms of sales or unit movement. Sure, we all hope that generation defining software does this, but it isn't a rule. Right now, my hope is that LBP rights some of the Forge wrongs, makes exchanging of content and finding players easier and offers one of the first useful, intuitive, and fun game design tools on the market. I don't care if it sells 5M copies as long as it does what it sets out to do, does it well, and causes the industry to stand up and take notice.

We can leave the "X moved more units than Y" for the post mortum as right now there is nothing substantial to base such on. But LBP has done something of note for what they are trying to do. That is buzzworthy for a forum like B3D and we get to enjoy the oppurtunity to see a possible paradigm shift from ground level. Lets hope MM executes.

 

[Vic]

This isn't "a forum." There are a lot of "forums" out there. There is a specific purpose for these forums and the goal was to be different in regards to how information is exchanged. If you mean by "reason" sales data, demographic analysis, reserved projections from such, then by all means reason away. If by reason you toss out sales comparisons based on personal platform/game appeal... then formerly the answer was a decisive NO!



Opinions are like noses, they all smell.

And it is this attitude, that actual analysis of data is subplanted by subjective whims makes these threads devoid of value. And I stand by that statement as well.



There have been a number of points, many with no bases in any substantial analysis other than opinion. I am fine with opinions but people are putting depositing them dogmatically and offering nothing substantial in corollary or rooted in factual metrics to have any value.

As for this last point, just checking VGchartz and ~6.7M as "close" in NA, then yeah. Then again that 6.7M unit install base difference in NA is 21% larger than the total PS3 NA install base. When the gap is larger than total installed units that isn't close at all. Monthly sales have been +/-15% for most of 2008, so that is a notable shift from 2007, but in terms of total market base and software unit sales they aren't very close at all. And the Wii is laughing all the way to the bank compared to both in HW sales. So we agree there. But all that is general.

Predicting LBP>GeoW2 without addressing any of the specific difficulties (as very lightly noted) has nothing to do with NPD/Data analysis and the dogmatics of such is worthy.

Thats seems like a horrible contradiction, but anyway there's no point derailing the thread.

I think you've made your point, and I've made mine, so there's no point retreading old ground.