NPD December 2009

[dragonelite]

Microsoft is saying that shipped 10million worldwide. Is that right? They actually shipped 5.2million outside the US?

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/37179/Microsoft-clarifies-NPD-claims

Tommy McClain

I certainly do with the mw 2 heavy 360 marketing campaign. Here in holland mw 2 was marketed as a 360 exclusive on tv. The 360 elite is like 60 euro cheaper here then the ps 3 you could get one with 3 games for 200 euro(mw 2,pure and lego batman).

So yeah i can only speak of what i saw here in holland.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I don't understood the success of the wii, really. I think it is the best selling console with the worst line up of the videogames history. Meh.

Which just means you probably aren't

1. A kid.
2. A female with a kid.
3. Grandparents with grandkids.
4. A aunt or uncle with nephews and neices.
5. A casual gamer.

For the gift giving crowd, the Wii is by far the best console around. Especially with it's line-up of fitness games, it's also by far the best console for the holiday season with many women looking to work off all that food they ate during Thanksgiving (US), Christmas, and New Years.

And again for the gift giving crowd, it has got by far the best games lineup of any console on the market. Games that are family and party friendly.

What it doesn't have is many games that more gamer oriented (hardcore as some might say) people would find attractive.

And absolutely not surprised at Wii's December numbers. The fact that it almost managed to bring YoY numbers on part with 2008 numbers doesn't diminish in anyway my feeling that Wii is no longer a fad and is going to continue to sell more inline with X360 and PS3 going forward. 1 month out of the year doesn't diminish in anyway the trend that was established over the course of the whole year.

That said, this isn't to say it won't continue to outsell the HD consoles month to month, but it probably won't dominate sales month to month as it did in past years. And it will also continue to dominate Dec. sales until we move onto the next generation.

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Top 20

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/26832/NPD_Wii_DS_Titles_Command_December_2009_Top_20.php

Ouch the PS3's second title isn't until number 18?

It begs the question what are PS3 users buying? PS3 hardware is doing incredible, especially on a YoY basis. Yet there doesn't seem to be any appreciable impact on retail software sales.

Wii absolutely dominates the gift giving month (bucking the trend of the previous 11 months) and software sales also reflect on that.

X360 maintains YoY numbers and has a respectable showing.

Then again, without any numbers for 11-20, perhaps 18 on the chart isn't so bad. Going by install base, perhaps AC2 on PS3 still managed to do 400-450k.

And then there's the question of where is UC2? I'm constantly surprised that a game that has more appeal for the masses compared to L4D2 (IMO) continues to miss the boat. Really, I haven't got a clue at this point why the PS3 userbase doesn't appear to like the PS3 exclusives that much.

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

And I linked to Live charts showing ODST wasn't being played online frequently. Halo 3 yes, ODST not so much.

Multiplayer for ODST is included as Halo 3. ODST as pointed out by someone else is only tracked in relation to single player/co--op campaign.

Regards,
SB

 

[patsu]

Ouch the PS3's second title isn't until number 18?

It begs the question what are PS3 users buying? PS3 hardware is doing incredible, especially on a YoY basis. Yet there doesn't seem to be any appreciable impact on retail software sales.

Don't know about other folks, but I didn't buy any of the Top 20 December PS3 titles too. Will buy MW2 and AC2 later. Bought PJ Shooter and LBP DLC instead. Replayed KZ2, U2 (for Game of the Year and graphics crown comparison), and also tried out MAG before I flew off.

3 friends/relatives bought the PS3 bundles (like many other new PS3 owners during this holiday season ?). They don't know what else to get. Still fooling around with the bundled games. One is struggling with MotorStorm 1 SIXAXIS (He didn't know he has to turn SIXAXIS mode on before using the controller as a steering wheel). One bought *gasp* GT5P... and MW2.

I suspect if they let their kids use the PS3, the little ones will tell them what to get. Right now, they are "studying" the system to see whether to let their children touch the PS3. One of them, especially, already has the Wii. They bought it for the Blu-ray initially. This is where a no-brainer UI and out of the box experience will help guide new owners. I was summoned to their houses for free steak. Prepped them a little (but not enough).

I know some GAFFers bought Demon's Souls... need to see the total software sales if you want to understand the behaviour of the installed base.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Don't know about other folks, but I didn't buy any of the Top 20 December PS3 titles too. Will buy MW2 and AC2 later. Bought PJ Shooter and LBP DLC instead. Replayed KZ2, U2 (for Game of the Year and graphics crown comparison), and also tried out MAG before I flew off.

3 friends/relatives bought the PS3 bundles (like many other new PS3 owners during this holiday season ?). They don't know what else to get. Still fooling around with the bundled games. One is struggling with MotorStorm 1 SIXAXIS (He didn't know he has to turn SIXAXIS mode on before using the controller as a steering wheel). One bought *gasp* GT5P... and MW2.

I suspect if they let their kids use the PS3, the little ones will tell them what to get. Right now, they are "studying" the system to see whether to let their children touch the PS3. One of them, especially, already has the Wii. They bought it for the Blu-ray initially. This is where a no-brainer UI and out of the box experience will help guide new owners. I was summoned to their houses for free steak. Prepped them a little (but not enough).

I know some GAFFers bought Demon's Souls... need to see the total software sales if you want to understand the behaviour of the installed base.

Nod, interesting theory that new buyers of PS3 might be trying to figure out what they want out of their PS3.

What bundles were there? I didn't really pay attention to any of the console bundles this holiday season. Only one I considered getting was the Wii for some relatives, but in the end I went for cheaper and more traditional gifts.

BTW - hope Demon Souls did well, from what I'm hearing it's one of those games I'd love to see get rewarded and thus incentive for more games like it in the future.

Regards,
SB

 

[patsu]

I can't remember anymore. Should be able to google for it. ^_^

I think the Wii family got MotorStorm 1 with their Slim PS3. Their kids played LittleBigPlanet with my son (and got beaten). So I expect them to get it sooner or later.

Don't know what sort of bundles the other 2 got.
The more I ask them, the more they will bug me later on. So usually I keep my mouth shut ^_^

If you read GAF, you'll see newbies in U1, KZ2, R&C, and other games as well. I suspect the Greatest Hits are popular among the new owners too. In fact, I am not sure if that MotorStorm 1 copy is bundled or just another Greatest Hits purchase. GT5P is definitely one.

EDIT: I think I bought God of War Collection near end Nov or early Dec.

 

[thop]

It begs the question what are PS3 users buying?

Blu-Ray

 

[Teasy]

check the 3rd graph in first post
-16.64% mar 2009
-52.38%
-57.19%
-45.69%
-54.50%
-38.76%
-32.63%
-36.87% oct 2009 - price cut , yet it sells less than last year!!!!!
-38.24% nov 2009 - new mario bros but still sells less than last year
77.21% dec 2009 - christmas (would of been a drop if it wasnt supply constrained the previous year)

true even with these large YOY drops its still outselling the HD consoles
but to say the wii is in good shape for the rest of the year ignores the data

To say it isn't in good shape ignores sanity. I suppose it would be in much better shape now had it not sold as well last year? That's in effect what you're saying. The fact is no matter how you try to spin it the system is selling amazingly well, 3.3m in one month, one month!! Its all well and good to say that the only reason it sold more this December was that it was supply constrained last year, but the only reason it was supply constrained in the first place is because it sells so incredibly well. Something that sells that well will always have the problem of market saturation. I mean nearly 10m in the US alone have bought the console since last December, the fact that its sold as well overall and even better in this years Christmas period despite that is frankly an amazing achievement IMO. Really seems obsurd to me to try to spin Wii's current situation into something negative.

 

[Teasy]

Making money is important, but it can't be the only factor. Nintendo made money during the GCN years too, they weren't that happy about it. They also have guidance numbers to meet. Again, look at what Iwata has said this year. He wasn't too happy about what was going on, it's strange to argue that everyone else should be satisfied.

Also, I really doubt the Wii will drop to $100 anytime soon, partly because I don't think price is a major barrier. The $50 price drop this year didn't do huge things for the Wii on its own.

What are those numbers then?

By the way, Wii hasn't sold due to huge blockbuster titles, I'd think that was obvious to anyone.

 

[Alpolio]

By the way, Wii hasn't sold due to huge blockbuster titles, I'd think that was obvious to anyone.

I don't think that anyone knows exactly why the Wii sells like it does.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

To say it isn't in good shape ignores sanity. I suppose it would be in much better shape now had it not sold as well last year? That's in effect what you're saying. The fact is no matter how you try to spin it the system is selling amazingly well, 3.3m in one month, one month!! Its all well and good to say that the only reason it sold more this December was that it was supply constrained last year, but the only reason it was supply constrained in the first place is because it sells so incredibly well. Something that sells that well will always have the problem of market saturation. I mean nearly 10m in the US alone have bought the console since last December, the fact that its sold as well overall and even better in this years Christmas period despite that is frankly an amazing achievement IMO. Really seems obsurd to me to try to spin Wii's current situation into something negative.

Noone is saying Wii isn't in good shape.

What we're saying is...

Obonicus - Wii isn't meeting Nintendo's sales expectations for 2009. And by extension isn't meeting investor/market expectations for 2009. None of which means it's not doing well.

Me - Wii is now tracking as a regular console getting closer and closer to normalizing with X360/PS3 on a month to month basis other than Dec. (the gift giving season, and no other console can come close to competing with Wii as a gift to give). And thus isn't selling quite like a fad (again don't take that the wrong way as being a fad is incredibly hard to attain for any product) dominating all other consoles month to month as it did in past years.

I'm pretty sure everyone is on the same page with Wii being a huge financial success even now.

Regards,
SB

 

[baten]

PS3 crowd is probaly buying mostly second-hand games. Ad least in my country, as here a new game is about 80-100 USD on the shelf. So there is now an efervescent second-hand gray market online, you can get R2 for 20 USD or KZ2 for 25. And then, after playing, sell it back for approx. the same amount.
PS3 gamers are not that much into multiplayer, like the 360. Multiplayer and achievements are IMHO the reason why 360 sells more software.

 

[Acert93]

All data taken from Major Nelson. By the time MW2 hit, ODST was dying, and never charted in the top 10 after MW2. Uncharted 2 was released a month later and was still in its prime when MW2 was released.

I think you are being intentionally obtuse. Your original point was deflecting the lopsided MW2 sales ration by petitioning that UC2's "success" was slowing initial sales.

Have you seen Uncharted 2's sales

You can ignore the fact that ODST MP is a "Halo 3 MP disk" but you cannot ignore the fact that 1) Halo 3 is the top played game in 2009 on the 360 and 2) that this, too, would compete with adoption of yet another FPS.

Applying your logic, if UC2's "popularity" diminished MW2 launch sales, then Halo 3 which is the most popular shooter on the platform and just sold another 4M+ units via ODST -- maybe, just possibly, it would have the same effect ::cough::moreso::cough::

And it isn't even just that: the 360 sells a lot more software and has a LOT more online competition. The PS3 has nothing like Halo 3 in terms of online activity. CoD4 and WaW are far more popular on the Xbox to this day, and you still have titles like Gears of War 2 kicking strong. (And it isn't just games grabbing at online time, as my que of friends constantly on Netflix shows).

Really, your entire argument is bogus.

Halo 3 (which is ODST MP) is way more popular on the 360 than Uncharted MP is on the PS3. Uncharted 2 MP cannot be used as a cause for diminished MW2 sales in the light of ODST(Halo 3s) continued dominance online.

I think the general consensus is pretty clear on this one: The 360 has more shooter fans, more hardcore early adopters, and more online activity. MW1 was technically better on the 360 and has a much stronger community and the 360 in general has a strong software adoption among the type of consumers picking up MW2.

Gears (2006), Halo 3 (2007), CoD4 (2007), Gears 2 (2008), ODST (2009), MW2 (2009) form a pretty compelling trend in terms of the strength of shooters on the 360.

Great exclusives on the PS3, like UC2 and KZ2, just are not in the same sales league. Call it demographics or issues with the titles appeal to the shooter audience, the bottom line is the 360 owners EAT SHOOTERS ALIVE. That idea that the relatively middling sales of a UC2 compared to an ODST impacted MW2 sales then the same needs to be applied and amplified to the 360 version.

The tip toeing around the software sales is ironic. First there are all sorts of reasons why UC2 and KZ2 don't replicate CoD4/Halo 3 sales when the install bases were similar, but now those lower selling titles are the reason for a dent in software sales of major selling franchises (MW2 on the PS3 will best both of those titles in lifetime sales) with a total disregard for the impact on the other side of the fence?

 

[Scott_Arm]

360 also has Left 4 Dead 2, which is pretty much an online game, for MW2 to compete with.

 

[Acert93]

360 also has Left 4 Dead 2, which is pretty much an online game, for MW2 to compete with.

Yeah, but no one actually bought L4D2. Don't believe me? Compare the forum activity for it verses the other games!

 

[aselto]

Yeah, but no one actually bought L4D2. Don't believe me? Compare the forum activity for it verses the other games!

It sold 1.4M in US over November and December.

 

[corduroygt]

Blablabla

The whole purpose of bringing ODST and Uncharted 2 up was to try to explain the difference between NPD MW2 sales in November vs. December. The ratio was closer to 2:1 in November NPD and in December that has fallen to 1.5:1. I tried to explain this by suggesting that November was a busier month for PS3 owners compared to December, and Uncharted 2 was a factor in that. I am not denying that 360 is the shooter box or that they sell well on that system.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

The whole purpose of bringing ODST and Uncharted 2 up was to try to explain the difference between NPD MW2 sales in November vs. December. The ratio was closer to 2:1 in November NPD and in December that has fallen to 1.5:1. I tried to explain this by suggesting that November was a busier month for PS3 owners compared to December, and Uncharted 2 was a factor in that. I am not denying that 360 is the shooter box or that they sell well on that system.

Nov. was also a busy month for X360. L4D 2 came in 5th in sales competing directly with MW2 for the exact same FPS online players. And there were 4 top 10 titles totalling ~6.25 million in sales compared to 2 titles in the top 10 for PS3 totalling ~2.3 million in sales. Or ~2.05 million addtional titles in the top 10 versus an additional ~450k titles in the top 10.

A much larger impact than anything for PS3 for Nov when considering competing software titles on a platform depressing sales.

I think by now, we should all just be in agreement that the purchasing demographic for PS3 and X360 are just different. Although interestingly enough the same titles that do well on X360 are the ones that do well on PS3 (multi-platform hits). And the same gaming genre's that sell well on X360 are the gaming genre's that sell well on PS3.

So software choices damping sales should have a greater impact on X360 as there's just so much more software on X360 selling large numbers. But what seems to be the case is just the fact that X360 owners appear to buy more games than PS3 owners.

And appears to skew quite heavily towards new X360 owners buying more at the time of purchase. Perhaps PS3 owners instead of buying a game with their PS3 are opting to buy a BluRay instead. Who knows...

Regards,
SB

 

[Acert93]

It sold 1.4M in US over November and December.

Sarcasm

The whole purpose of bringing ODST and Uncharted 2 up was to try to explain the difference between NPD MW2 sales in November vs. December. The ratio was closer to 2:1 in November NPD and in December that has fallen to 1.5:1. I tried to explain this by suggesting that November was a busier month for PS3 owners compared to December, and Uncharted 2 was a factor in that. I am not denying that 360 is the shooter box or that they sell well on that system.

And that is exactly what I addressed. It is pretty simple: Games don't trend linearly to install base due to a larger install base having a more diversified userbase. The 360 shows significantly stronger initial sales on these games with post launch LTD dropping to more reasonable ratios.

Everything about Uncharted (that pretty much got checked and mated by such "unpopular" online games like L4D2) being the cause for the lopsided November sales totally ignores the sales of ODST, the longevity of other 360 online games, etc. Heck, the best month ever in NA for the PS3 (December) could easily be postulated to have had more effect on the tie ratio--MW2 being the game of the year on the PS3 per consumer sales definately skews attached ratios in the biggest month ever for the console.

I just find it chuckle worthy that when UC2 was released there were all sorts of explanations for its lower-than-forum-expectations sales wise and yet now, somehow, this lower-than-expected sales volume disrupts sales of MW2.

And yet major 360 titles with major online modes that far outsell UC2 in terms of software:console tie rates don't have a similar impact. Yes, lets disregard Halo 3 MP (which ODST is part of) as the most popular online game of 2009 on the 360 for online play, although collectively it has pushed out over 14M discs of MP content worldwide, and postulate that a game that didn't break 1M sales in month 1 in NA sucked consumers in so thoroughly that they in droves ignored the biggest seller on the PS3 this fall.

Might as well say it was L4D2 that tanked MW2 December sales on the 360 if we are taking this sort of route. All unnecessary when you look at trends where the 360 shows significant spikes in launch sales and post-launch trends follow a similar ratio (not linearly attached to install base as title penetration typically drops with install base growth--something still not grasped in these threads which makes them pretty pointless).