NPD December 2009
- Thread starter RobertR1
- Start date
dec was the first time a shooter had performed better on the ps3, but u can see looking at this table xbox360 users love their shooters
this is about the wii, yep 'shape' definition == how its likely to perform in the future, its like a 1500m race if some guy goes off sprinting hard for the first 2 laps + is leading by 200m would u say hes in good shape for the race?
fact the wii sold ~30% better in 2008 when it was supply constrained than it has in 2009 with no supply constraints, that is a huge differnce. Yes sony/MS would love to have done wii's sales but relatively speaking the wii is not in good shape, I wouldnt be surprised if 2010 wiis sales are ~30-40% less than in 2009.
well %wise it sold to more ps3 owners than assassins creed2 sold to xbox360 + ps3 owners.
(thud) sound of Laa-Yosh's jaw hitting the ground
In simplistic straight install base attach ratio.
well %wise it sold to more ps3 owners than assassins creed2 sold to xbox360 + ps3 owners.
(thud) sound of Laa-Yosh's jaw hitting the ground
And my context was related to titles to Gears of War 1, Halo 3, etc when the 360 had a similar install base.
I didn't say the sales were horrible. I didn't say they were below Sony's expectations. But it was to address the unwarranted UC2 killing MW2 sales. Halo 3 didn't kill CoD4 sales, for example and I don't think anyone would argue that Halo 3 doesn't have major overlap or that Halo 3 had better sales than UC2.
Just to clarify what I said and why. I will leave others to debate if UC2 met sales expectations, although the jab, "Forum activity and praise doesn't directly translate into first month sales" which was deposited only to point out that the arguements surrounding UC2 eating into MW2 totally ignore the success of L4D2. All to say that the point I was addressing is yet another example of the overplay of popular forum titles versus commercial success. The fact people on forums still don't "get" the Wii, and the dearth of interest on gaming forums, shows how a grain of salt needs to be applied to these sort of arguments.
Wii didn't sell 30% better in 2008 though did it? Someone correct me if I'm wrong but it sold 10,151,000 in 2008 and 9,584,000 in 2009, that's about a 5% differece.
From the start Wii has sold too an almost unprecedented level, with little to no price drop. It had to level out at some point. That doesn't mean it will continue to sell less and less, and even if it did follow the same trend as 2008 to 2009 its 2010/2011 sales woud still be massive.
Around 55m sold in just over three years and still selling more then the other two systems combined 4 years into the generation. Your racing analogy should be more like 1000m into the 1500m race with Wii already 400m ahead. Is that guy in good shape to win the race?, yes obviously.
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Actually Zed did say its not in good shape.
Aaron Greenberg has some more NPD numbers for 2009 on Major Nelson latest podcast. Focus is on Xbox, but they talk about 3 consoles for the whole year. It's all in the first 13 minutes.
http://majornelson.com/archive/2010/01/17/show-347-welcome-to-2010.aspx
Tommy McClain
http://majornelson.com/archive/2010/01/17/show-347-welcome-to-2010.aspx
Tommy McClain
It looks to be roughly 20 paragraphs dedicated to attacking someone's hypothesis and that's just odd.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
It looks to be roughly 20 paragraphs dedicated to attacking someone's hypothesis and that's just odd.
Well, if it's based on such a silly hypothesis as UC2 depressed Nov sales of MW2 on PS3 and implying that nothing depressed sales of MW2 on X360... When MW2 on X360 not only had to compete with another FPS (L4D 2) but a top 5 selling FPS competitor...
I'd say it's more pointing out the reality of the situation rather than attacking a premise.
Regards,
SB
Questioning hypotheses is the very basis of intelligent probing discussion. The response is either to read and reply to the points raised, or just drop out of the conversation.
What's odd isn't the point, the point is clear and pretty much accurate. It's the 20 paragraphs when the point could be summed up in one:
There's something in the other 19 paragraphs that isn't being stated clearly which makes the argument odd.
Of course conversely it could be stated that if PS3 owners purchase fewer games, it's more likely on the PS3 than it would be on the 360 for sales of one game to eat into the sales of another assuming roughly the same number of games are available.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Yeah that's one of my current theories for why PS3 software sales were rather lackluster compared to how many hardware units sold, which was quite impressive.
I'm think that many people in Dec. that bought a new PS3 picked up a BRD movie or two instead of buying a game. Whereas for X360, they probably did the normal new buyer thing and picked up an additional game or two.
Regards,
SB
Gamasutra finally has their analysis of NPD 2009...
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...llionDollar_Platform_Revenue_Drop_In_2009.php
Tommy McClain
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...llionDollar_Platform_Revenue_Drop_In_2009.php
Tommy McClain
thats due to the console shortages in 2008
wii nov2008 2040000
wii dec2008 2150000 <-- !!!! only slightly better than november, it should of done ~5million
check the percentage year on year changes I posted a page or 2 ago, most months wii was ~30% down YOY
famitsu's japan numbers (2008,2009)
wii 2908342 -> 1975178 = 32% less sales
ps3 991303 -> 1727041 = 74% more slaes
xb360 317859 -> 331706 = 4% more sales
gfk france sales (2008,2009)
wii 1600000->1200000 = 25% less sales
ps3 708000 -> 900000 = 27% more sales
xb360 566000 -> 60000= 6% more sales
Im sure it would be a similar story in other countries (except nz of course)
The tl:dr crowd aren't the target demographics here.
If that is true, that factor per si would also influence the sales of MW2 (or any other game) and it'd be quite hard to separate what sales were "lost" to some other game from the lost sales because "people don't buy as much", especially when we correlate with install base sizes.
Frankly, even if we ignore any circunstancial or marginal factors, any argument about game sales that ends with "because of <this>." isn't very interesting.
So what you're saying is that you believe Wii would have sold 30% better in 2008 if it wasn't supply constrained. That's quite different to what you said originally. Though at least its probably somewhere near the truth this time.
The long and the short of this is that you're looking at a console that has been selling extraordinarily well and is now selling worse but still brilliantly (as much as the other two combined) and claiming that means its in bad shape, which I just can't agree with.
Also FYI you've missed out some zero's on some of your Wii sales data.
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There's nothing wrong with conjecture, as long as that's how its portrayed (I also said his second modified comment is probably somewhere close to the truth). Saying "fact the wii sold ~30% better in 2008" isn't written as if its based on conjecture.
I'm sure it would have sold better in December 2008 without supply problems. But I don't think we can definitely say it would have sold around 30% better overall.
I'm sure it would have sold better in December 2008 without supply problems. But I don't think we can definitely say it would have sold around 30% better overall.
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Silent_Buddha
Legend
While you can never be 100% positive about anything, I think Wii selling a minimum of 30% better than it's actual number for Dec 08 is about as close to a sure thing as you can get.
Regards,
SB
