NPD December 2006

NPD probably underreports US sales, and then there's Canada which should be about 10% of the US sales. Although I haven't got a clue if PS3 is available there at all.
Yes. A few of us were on lunch a couple of days after the launch and Terry M picked one up at the mall. Someone I know returned one following the poor ebay sales.
 
1.1m is a very good number IMO for a 300-400 system. Almost as good as 2004 xbox 1 numbers but there was Halo 2 out at that time as well.
 
IIRC this significantly surpasses XBOX's NPD's sales for its second Christmas and thats well after it had a price drop as well. I'm surpised that MS had the bottle to stay at the price they did for the 360, however exceeding the XBOX sales whilst being a significant price premium is a good indicator as a strength of the platform now.
 
1.5 million Geo, 1.5... :cool:

Remember, that 2 million target is an 'out the door' target; between NA and Japan, I think frankly they got pretty close on the shipment side where probably no one thought they would.

Ah, okay, thank you. Tho I've been assuming everything air shipped thru Dec 20th or so (whatever might have a shot of being on a shelf before Christmas).
 
IIRC this significantly surpasses XBOX's NPD's sales for its second Christmas and thats well after it had a price drop as well. I'm surpised that MS had the bottle to stay at the price they did for the 360, however exceeding the XBOX sales whilst being a significant price premium is a good indicator as a strength of the platform now.

Ok Dave I know you're whole situation now and everything, but I really don't think it's that surprising - and I hope at heart you don't either. ;)

XBox by it's second birthday was essentially a platform for a one-year old game and nothing more. 360 on the other hand, on top of a well-rounded library, got it's first true 'system seller' in Gears of War. 360 and XBox in terms of their starts in life are night and day. XBox post Halo-2 is what's allowed for the 360 to get off on this good foot, but I mean... there was a dark age for XBox leading up to that watershed moment in public opinion and awareness concerning the XBox brand.

I think you're even doing the console a disservice to compare it! :p
 
good perspective XBD but still... at $400 Dave's point still stands IMO. :smile:

Xbox was $199 with halo on the shelf (not a bad deal) ;)
 
IMO, Splinter Cell did a fair amount to establish the Xbox as a platform. It may've been the dark ages, but they were getting brighter. Halo 2 was definitely an inflection point, though. No arguing that.

Now the question is, did the Home & Entertainment division make a profit? :devilish:
 
Yeah but I frankly just think gamers are richer at this point in their lives. People who were in college for XBox... are in the workforce now.

I mean hell, the iPhone's going to start off at $499 with a two-year contract! And do we not expect sales of that to be incredible? I honestly feel sorry for consoles... forced to be sold at a loss due to the publics feeling that that's where they belong pricewise, in spite of the utility (when measured in years) and technology advantage they enjoy compared to things like cell phones. :)

Inane_Dork said:
Now the question is, did the Home & Entertainment division make a profit? :devilish:

Yes, now that's a good question. We'll know in a couple of weeks... we just need those MS quarter end numbers.
 
Yeah but I frankly just think gamers are richer at this point in their lives. People who were in college for XBox... are in the workforce now.

MS said at CES that their surveys show that over 50% of their 360 sales are to people new to the Xbox brand. :smile:

yea, not sure if I'm buying the "richer" comment as there is more to it than disposable income (especially long term) but at this point in Next Gen I think it is more a testament to a hunger for the good software available for 360 (as evidenced by the million sellers in the first year with such a small user base).

It's about the games. ;)
 
MS said at CES that their surveys show that over 50% of their 360 sales are to people new to the Xbox brand. :smile:

Well, I wasn't saying it was XBox owners specifically... but the same 'young professional' demographic I was alluding to I feel is the driver, whether a previous XBox owner or not.

yea, not sure if I'm buying the "richer" comment as there is more to it than disposable income (especially long term) but at this point in Next Gen I think it is more a testament to a hunger for the good software available for 360 (as evidenced by the million sellers in the first year with such a small user base).

It's about the games. ;)

I agree, it is about games. :)

But when those who would make the purchase don't really have to save up the cash to do it - they can just do so at the moment they decide to - it makes the job of marketing these things easier. What other way can I frame it than to say that those who were receiving 8-bit Nintendo's for Christmas 20 years ago, are now often capable of buying a new car... let alone a new console... and in fact may be buying consoles for their own kids at this point! So I think that generation of gamers, is definitely one empowered in their purchasing abilities.
 
XBox by it's second birthday was essentially a platform for a one-year old game and nothing more. 360 on the other hand, on top of a well-rounded library, got it's first true 'system seller' in Gears of War. 360 and XBox in terms of their starts in life are night and day. XBox post Halo-2 is what's allowed for the 360 to get off on this good foot, but I mean... there was a dark age for XBox leading up to that watershed moment in public opinion and awareness concerning the XBox brand.
The point being is that for most months (10 out of 14) 360 outsold XBOX, but not by huge volumes (in fact, not by enough to outsell, according to NPD figures, XBOX until its 14 month - thanks to XBOX's large sales in its initial 2 months, and 360's short supply over its first two months). They would have sat there and and followed that over the summer and fall period and you have to wonder if there was any consideration on flinching on the price.

The relative XMas sales are a vindication of the platforms success and of the fact that they probably didn't need to. However, I suspect that this period will have a heavy influence on the price drop scenario for the platform.
 
I agree, it is about games. :)

But when those who would make the purchase don't really have to save up the cash to do it - they can just do so at the moment they decide to - it makes the job of marketing these things easier. What other way can I frame it than to say that those who were receiving 8-bit Nintendo's for Christmas 20 years ago, are now often capable of buying a new car... let alone a new console... and in fact may be buying consoles for their own kids at this point! So I think that generation of gamers, is definitely one empowered in their purchasing abilities.

I don't doubt that theory applies to a degree but I don't think it translates well to comparing who could afford and was willing to spring for an Xbox at $200 to who can afford and will buy a 360 at $400.

Maybe, who could afford a Neo Geo or a 3DO compared to a 360/PS3 (time differential) :smile:

Oh and I think what else you are saying is that the industry (and marketplace) is getting bigger.... and NPD's numbers prove that as well. It is.
 
I really think winter 2007 will be the biggest battle and whoever wins out Nov-Dec 07 will likely take the market at least until 2010.

It all comes down to:
1. Games
2. Price
 
IIRC this significantly surpasses XBOX's NPD's sales for its second Christmas and thats well after it had a price drop as well. I'm surpised that MS had the bottle to stay at the price they did for the 360, however exceeding the XBOX sales whilst being a significant price premium is a good indicator as a strength of the platform now.

Not really. Dec 02 Xbox sold 1,031,000.

Xbox 360 has been selling at slightly above Xbox levels month to month (outside first two) right along. This holds to that trend.

There is the whole 199 versus 399 aspect of course. Nonetheless, Xbox360 has not approached the gold standard of PS2 sales at any similar life point.

It's looking like nobody, even Sony, will do those PS2 numbers this time around though. PS2 had a December in the middle of it's life where it topped 2.6 million sold. It nearly hit two million it's first December.
 
Not really. Dec 02 Xbox sold 1,031,000.

Xbox 360 has been selling at slightly above Xbox levels month to month (outside first two) right along. This holds to that trend.

There is the whole 199 versus 399 aspect of course. Nonetheless, Xbox360 has not approached the gold standard of PS2 sales at any similar life point.

It's looking like nobody, even Sony, will do those PS2 numbers this time around though. PS2 had a December in the middle of it's life where it topped 2.6 million sold. It nearly hit two million it's first December.

Goodness, long live the king. It will be a miracle if any next gen console reach that number. :p
 
Goodness, long live the king. It will be a miracle if any next gen console reach that number. :p
I disagree. If MS makes a big drop in price of the X360 to a "key" price point (like $200) and at the same time ships a really big exclusive game, I bet it could hit 2 million in December. The PS3 might be able to do that too, though it's a little early to call that.
 
Here are the games that sold over 100k:

You missed the PSP games :)

PSP MADDEN NFL 07
PSP NBA LIVE 07
PSP NEED FOR SPEED CARBON: OWN THE CITY
PSP METAL GEAR SOLID: PORTABLE OPS
PSP SOCOM: U.S. NAVY SEALS FIRETEAM BRAVO 2
PSP GRAND THEFT AUTO: LIBERTY CITY STORIES
PSP GRAND THEFT AUTO: VICE CITY STORIES
PSP WWE SMACKDOWN VS. RAW 2007
 
PSP on the other hand, amazingly high. Almost two thirds of the juggernaut DS.

Basically looking at these numbers, Sony is a huge winner (great PS2, PSP, and even solid PS3 sales) while Nintendo has to be disappointed.

NA is PSPs stronghold. It has had good sales and is a huge success. The fact we can frame PSP at 66% of NDS sales in the PSPs best region says more about NDS than it does the PSP. Good first effort for Sony by all means, but NDS defies reality. I would hate to compare consoles and handhelds, but the NDS success is very similar to the runaway success of the PS2.

Anyway, I think the one big conclusion here should be that no data is 100% accurate - neither sold/shipped numbers from the console manufacturers nor sales reports from NPD. I hope we won't see anyone quoting this or that number as an absolute truth in the future.

This should be your sig ;) I always look at it as "trending". Later in the lifecycles being off 500K units isn't a big deal because it is only a couple percentages of total sales, if that (for PS2 it isn't even 1%). Early on being offer 100K can be as much as 10% of sales!

1.5 million Geo, 1.5... :cool:

Remember, that 2 million target is an 'out the door' target; between NA and Japan, I think frankly they got pretty close on the shipment side where probably no one thought they would.

:?:

So they say 2M (after 4M of course), and getting 3/4ths of the way there is somehow... better than expected? You can look at it either way I guess:

Person #1: Sony has big press meeting, PRs strong claims in regards to production, availability, and sales. Fairly quietly adjusts those down (after denying it). Then misses the mark.

Person #2: Reads the PR... sees the Sony development roadmap, watches the downward re-adjustment of shipping volumes, sees the press clippings about diode issues, notes the EU delay (after big fanfair about worldwide launch just months before) and after seeing the limited numbers offered at launch in the US and Japan when Sony had many months to stockpile and realizes, "2M in CY 2006? Not going to happen".

While I am Person #2, I think I was in the minority. The majority of people only see the press clippings, specifically the big press events (4M CY 2006). Even here there have been some very stern advocates of Sony's own estimates.

Anyhow, I am not sure that "most people" expected them to miss 2M after they cut it in half from 4M and delayed Europe. I did, but I know a lot of people who disagreed. I understand the issues and don't think missing their CY marks means much outside of lost nearly guaranteed sales at $600 (which I think now becomes much more difficult now that it is not the "new kid" on the block). Companies miss sales targets. MS did earlier this year. It happens.

What is more annoying is that after multiple denials and adjustments and delays that we have to take the stance, "Well, they were 75% of the way to where they told us they would be. Good show!" I understand this stuff happens, but I cannot help but to chalk it up to Sony's PR department going through their worst year... ever. They cannot even get simple things right it seems. It is like they are copying MS's PR department (which is horrible IMO as well). At least they have something in common. But it does go to show that, at this point, the talking heads really cannot be trusted for ANYTHING until it happens.

Now the question is, did the Home & Entertainment division make a profit? :devilish:

For CY Q4 maybe. For the year in the entertainment division? I doubt it. Although at those rip off prices on the controllers... about 800K of them at a little over $11 each. Assuming MS and the retailer split the profit on those wireless controllers, MS is making nearly $20 on each. That is over $10M in profits... from controllers.

Btw, didn't they change the "profit by" date from 2007 to 2008?

Yeah but I frankly just think gamers are richer at this point in their lives. People who were in college for XBox... are in the workforce now.

In the workforce... with less disposable income than they had in college and a LOT less time for games :devilish:

There is the whole 199 versus 399 aspect of course. Nonetheless, Xbox360 has not approached the gold standard of PS2 sales at any similar life point.

Gold standard to an extreme.

I had not realized until yesterday that the PS2 shipped over 24M units 14 months AFTER their US release (a little over 21 total including the Japanese launch which was in March of 2000).

So by the time MS and Nintendo go a couple million units in the channels in CY 2001, Sonly already shipped more PS2s than MS would Xbox1s for the entire gen or Nintendo would GCNs for the entire gen. Amazing. Game over before they could even get to their FIRST price drop.

That is like the Xbox 360 total year to date sales at the end of 2007 outselling 5 year total sales of the PS3 and Wii (end of 2011).

This is not to say the Xbox is doing bad, or the PS3 or Wii, but I think it puts into perspective how DOMINATE the PS2 was. Not even funny. And when we discuss the impact that dominance had on exclusives, software design focus, mindshare, etc and start looking at this gen as a semi-clean slate... hard to adjust. The industry has evolved a lot. Just looking at the 3 platforms and their orientation in regards to hardware, services, software, and general design really are a stark contrast to last gen.

It is gonna be an interesting 2007 and 2008, that is for sure. By then we should have a good idea of price reductions, how hardware is scaling in cost reduction as well as developer understanding, and how software support and killer apps are playing out. The race officially starts... NOW! (Because Acert said so!)
 
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