NPD December 2006
- Thread starter Hardknock
- Start date
Drops are typicaly done in Spring. It is a nice pick-me up to the slow time of the year, allowing more even production/storage. This is the best way to maximize resources and sales. Doing it in the fall (or even late summer) doesn't solve the slower post-holiday period. But too close to the holidays and people feel ripped off.
When will it happen? When MS feels they can. The Xenon shrink got delayed, and 55nm eDRAM is H2. Does MS dare drop the price while on older hardware? I think they have to personally...
They'll probably cut $50-$50 from both the Core and the Premium sometime in April, IMHO. They have a lot of big releases in May and June too, so it makes sense to time these two events together to maximize their effect.
Also, with a PS3 European launch in March, they'll probably wait until the first wave of purchases is completed in the EU, so that it isn't seen as a desparate effort to battle the PS3. At this price I fully expect a situation similar to the US, where the first 1-2 million consoles are sold with some hysterical events, and then the demand suddenly drops down once the early adopters have gotten their PS3s.
Also, with a PS3 European launch in March, they'll probably wait until the first wave of purchases is completed in the EU, so that it isn't seen as a desparate effort to battle the PS3. At this price I fully expect a situation similar to the US, where the first 1-2 million consoles are sold with some hysterical events, and then the demand suddenly drops down once the early adopters have gotten their PS3s.
I guess we will have to wait and see if the PS3 sales have actually slowed down. Right now what we have are at best anecdotal evidence. However, if that is the case I would be very surprized as i though the atleast the first 6 million even up to 10 million would have no problem what so ever to be sold at the $500-$600 price range. The upcomming NPD numbers for Jan-Feb should proce to be much more interesting than the holiday ones...
Well, that is of course very true, I very well know that from personal exprience. I read somewhere that January 24th was the most depressing day of the year, one of the factors being that you are just too poor at that time, don't ask me though how scientifically correct that study was though:smile: ...
One thing people tend to forget is mainstream PS2 users who are currently content with PS2 games don't buy PS3 now. It's indicated by the strong PS2 sales. PS2 still have many new games and big titles such as God of War 2 coming. When they really get tired of all the PS2 they'll start to migrate to PS3 by sheer inertia.
But game sales revenue was down 19% for the PS2 in 2006.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4527&Itemid=2
How does that compare with Xbox 1 / GC games sales?
What does it have to do with my argument? There are many people who bought his/her new PS2 this December! I don't think they just throw them in 6 months. Besides, there are games that don't require next-gen but still sell, look at Guitar Hero, Singstar, and quiz show games in Europe.
I'm unconvinced that the "masses" will just migrate on name alone - its hardly as though this happened with the Genesis / Megadrive. Overall, price, breadth (quantity / price / diversity) of games probably play more significant roles.
Of course, that's where backward compatibility and software assets kick in.
Again, I don't feel that backward compatibility is really much of a driver (see Megadrive / Genesis example again).
As I repeatedly quote the NPD sales data, the point of my argument is if there were a group of "lazy" people who just "upgrade" what they already have, the PS camp would have not yet used that card unlike the Xbox/GC camp. How good at BC is relative in this premise and context though better BC is still preferable.
Again, as indicated by prior console releases I'm realtively unconvinced that there is a "camp" in the mass market. I think the majority of that that actually care about a particular "camp" will have upgraded in the first year or so (and, ironically, they are more likely to be concerned about BC).
What's on my mind as a main source of this inertia is sequels of popular series. You see more games going multiplatform, but the important thing is it's hardly going away. As long as you choose this platform you can play a sequel of your favorite game. Clever customers may seek a cheaper option in other platforms, but not all people are like that. Then again, the cheapest options can be found in the portable segment so it won't be an absolute basis of decision for consumers in the high-end console market.
