NPD December 2006

[TheChefO]

What's on my mind as a main source of this inertia is sequels of popular series. You see more games going multiplatform, but the important thing is it's hardly going away. As long as you choose this platform you can play a sequel of your favorite game. Clever customers may seek a cheaper option in other platforms, but not all people are like that. Then again, the cheapest options can be found in the portable segment so it won't be an absolute basis of decision for consumers in the high-end console market.

I don't think it's just "clever" customers who will seek other options but everyone who sees the same games lineup and a significantly cheaper alternative. If their favorite title doesnt appear on the cheaper alternative then that's one thing but if the cost difference is large enough it may cause them to consider other exclusives that have historically been foreign to them if they were a "one console" owner.

Regarding portables being cheaper options - to some they are not options. I have never considered a portable as to me it would be a waste of money. If I have time to game, I'm at my house and I might as well do so on my tv rather than a 2-4" screen without surround sound and less comfortable grip.

 

[fearsomepirate]

Regarding portables being cheaper options - to some they are not options.

It's only "not an option" if you actually can't obtain or use one for some reason. It's still an option, just one that you would rather not choose because you don't see personal advantages in it. Some people do, which is why they see it as a "cheaper option." An option you don't choose remains an option.

I think it's better to understand it in terms of "people buy what strikes them as something worth owning." Different people have different standards, and success happens when you design a product that appeals to a large enough number of people to make you rich and allow for the introduction of new products.

 

[TheChefO]

It's only "not an option" if you actually can't obtain or use one for some reason. It's still an option, just one that you would rather not choose because you don't see personal advantages in it. Some people do, which is why they see it as a "cheaper option." An option you don't choose remains an option.

I think it's better to understand it in terms of "people buy what strikes them as something worth owning." Different people have different standards, and success happens when you design a product that appeals to a large enough number of people to make you rich and allow for the introduction of new products.

Agreed - Hence "to SOME it's not an option". Some will view portables as an option but some will not. Modern Japanese culture seems to have more available free time than other regions (public transit) hence the portable market is more popular there than in other regions such as the US. In my case as I've explained it is not of much value and other people will have differing situations which may make it a more viable option. However all things being equal, one can get a similar experience to psp with ps2 but will spend less for ps2. DS obviously offers a different experience hence it is more difficult to guage direct competition. My point was though that:
a) portable != (console - $)
and
b) portable is not as viable to some as it is to others.

Obviously my situation (wrt portables) is not everyone's but I'm sure I'm not alone either.:smile:

 

[.Melchiah.]

Not to mention that neither PS3 nor X360 is particularly good at it...

The last I heard, the PS3 has backwards compatibility problems with about 200 games, out of ~8000 games. And that's equal to the quality of backwards compatibility on 360, which allows you to play, what, about 200 games? Riiight.

 

[mckmas8808]

Not to mention that neither PS3 nor X360 is particularly good at it...

The PS3's BC is not as bad as you make it seem.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I expect PS3 sales to slow in January/February. It'll be very interesting to see how much. $600 is a lot of money. MS will probably drop price about 1 or 2 months after the Euro PS3 launch. I expect a full $100 drop around May. I also think that the Wii will slow down more than people think, but that remains to be seen.

 

[expletive]

I expect PS3 sales to slow in January/February. It'll be very interesting to see how much. $600 is a lot of money. MS will probably drop price about 1 or 2 months after the Euro PS3 launch. I expect a full $100 drop around May. I also think that the Wii will slow down more than people think, but that remains to be seen.

Yes, based on the data today, I think theres a better than 50/50 chance that the January NPD numbers for PS3 will not be supply limited.

EDIT: And there's 100% chance there will be a long thread arguing about whether they were or not.

 

[Carl B]

LOL, I think there's a 100% chance they won't be supply limited!

The big question is, how will they stack up to 360's supply-limited January sales of last year?

 

[Acert93]

The big question is, how will they stack up to 360's supply-limited January sales of last year?

And MS fans will be asking, "How does the PS3's January 2007 sales compare to the Xbox 360's January 2007 sales" That is the one stinker of releasing later: As nice as it is to compare, "Same relative time after release" from a market position what really matters is, "How fast am I closing the gap?"

But January, let alone March, won't be telling us much. NPD December 2007 will give us our first big snapshot unless something crazy happens with one of the consoles (360 sales tank, PS3 gets red hot in EU, Wii gets out of control, etc)

 

[scooby_dooby]

The big question is, how will they stack up to 360's supply-limited January sales of last year?

lol, That's only relevant if you're 'keeping score', but is otherwise meaningless to the end picture.

Ps3 is now trying to gain back it's lost market share, so the interesting # will be the margin of difference between the 2 consoles in Jan 2007. PS3 *should* outsell 360 by a wide margin.

 

[Carl B]

And MS fans will be asking, "How does the PS3's January 2007 sales compare to the Xbox 360's January 2007 sales" That is the one stinker of releasing later: As nice as it is to compare, "Same relative time after release" from a market position what really matters is, "How fast am I closing the gap?"

But January, let alone March, won't be telling us much. NPD December 2007 will give us our first big snapshot unless something crazy happens with one of the consoles (360 sales tank, PS3 gets red hot in EU, Wii gets out of control, etc)

Agreed.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

lol, That's only relevant if you're 'keeping score', but is otherwise meaningless to the end picture.

Ps3 is now trying to gain back it's lost market share, so the interesting # will be the margin of difference between the 2 consoles in Jan 2007. PS3 *should* outsell 360 by a wide margin.

It should. Historically MS isn't usually able to sell more than 200k or 250k in the US in January and Sony should hit 500k if there is pent up demand there.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Then again, the PS3 is pretty expensive, hasn't got too many interesting games, and Wii is the more fashionable console nowadays...

 

[speng]

All this short term analysis. This is a marathon not a sprint.

I will wait for post 2007 holiday season to see the clear front runners.

If Sony doesn't deliver games in March, Summer and Fall they will have issues.

I'm not worried however, Sony WW Studios alone is developing a lot of games.

Speng.

 

[sumdumyunguy]

All this short term analysis. This is a marathon not a sprint.

I will wait for post 2007 holiday season to see the clear front runners.

If Sony doesn't deliver games in March, Summer and Fall they will have issues.

I'm not worried however, Sony WW Studios alone is developing a lot of games.

Speng.

Well here is one Japanese analyst that it projecting until the 3rd quarter 2008. He does not like what he sees.

 

[scooby_dooby]

All this short term analysis. This is a marathon not a sprint.

Sort of, but it's also a market where momentum is key, and once you gain enough momentum you create a continual cycle of growth, as more consumers drive sales wich attracts developers which attracts consumers...but I agree with people saying 2007 and 2008 will be the most telling.

 

[Tap In]

Sort of, but it's also a market where momentum is key, and once you gain enough momentum you create a continual cycle of growth, as more consumers drive sales wich attracts developers which attracts consumers...but I agree with people saying 2007 and 2008 will be the most telling.

true and you must admit.... NOBODY expected we would even need to be debating this 9 months ago!


go back in the archives and have a laugh at some of the forecasts by our own members.
The PS3 price prediction threads alone, WITH all of the original spec equipment still stuffed in it is now laughable.

things are palpably different than 9 mos ago let alone last gen.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Sort of, but it's also a market where momentum is key, and once you gain enough momentum you create a continual cycle of growth, as more consumers drive sales wich attracts developers which attracts consumers...but I agree with people saying 2007 and 2008 will be the most telling.

Exactly. MS' favorite saying with the original Xbox was "It's a marathon, not a sprint", but it IS actually a sprint. When pubs like Capcom are putting out Lost Planet and selling 1 million almost instantly, other pubs are going to notice and this is going to give X360 a big support advantage this year. Every publisher that isn't locked down into an exclusive agreement with Sony or making a highly Japanese game (dating sims etc..) has to be seriously considering an X360 version for their game. They'd be crazy not to with 10 million units out there and out of this world attach rates.

 

[Flux]

The best thread to me, to really see where everyone stood or stands is the Josh Robinson thread, especially considering how nasty some members were.

the NPD numbers don't include the 2 biggest video game retailers in the world.
Wal-mart and Toys-R-Us.They don't count sales in canada either.

 

[assen]

Ps3 is now trying to gain back it's lost market share, so the interesting # will be the margin of difference between the 2 consoles in Jan 2007. PS3 *should* outsell 360 by a wide margin.

This is absurd. I will be very surprised if the PS3 outsells 360 in North America for any single month in 2007. Nothing Sony could do can change that, only a monumental screwup by Microsoft. (E.g. trying to keep the current price juuuuust for one more month over and over again.)