NPD December 2006

[Undercover Cop]

Heh, the "fake numbers" were pretty much on the mark after all.

 

[Tap In]

Top 10 Video Games - December 2006
1) 360 GEARS OF WAR - MICROSOFT 815.7 K
2) PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR - ACTIVISION 805.2 K


Top 10 Accessory Items - December 2006 Units
1) 360 WIRELESS CONTROLLER 823.8 k

wow at accessories and with GH2 coming to 360 in March, it could be the next huge 360 release

 

[scooby_dooby]

NPD probably underreports US sales, and then there's Canada which should be about 10% of the US sales. Although I haven't got a clue if PS3 is available there at all.

It is, though just the 60GB version I believe. http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=37

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Anyway, I think the one big conclusion here should be that no data is 100% accurate - neither sold/shipped numbers from the console manufacturers nor sales reports from NPD. I hope we won't see anyone quoting this or that number as an absolute truth in the future.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Here are the games that sold over 100k:

WII CALL OF DUTY 3
WII MARVEL: ULTIMATE ALLIANCE
WII MADDEN NFL 07
WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS
WII SUPER MONKEY BALL: BANANA BLITZ
WII RAYMAN RAVING RABBIDS
WII RED STEEL

PS3 MADDEN NFL 07
PS3 RESISTANCE: FALL OF MAN

360 CALL OF DUTY 3
360 MARVEL: ULTIMATE ALLIANCE
360 TONY HAWK'S PROJECT 8
360 MADDEN NFL 07
360 NBA LIVE 07
360 NEED FOR SPEED: CARBON
360 GEARS OF WAR
360 WWE SMACKDOWN VS. RAW 2007
360 TOM CLANCY'S GHOST RECON: ADVANCED WARFI
360 TOM CLANCY'S RAINBOW SIX: VEGAS
360 F.E.A.R.


PS2 CALL OF DUTY 3
PS2 GUITAR HERO 2
PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR
PS2 MARVEL: ULTIMATE ALLIANCE
PS2 PIMP MY RIDE
PS2 TONY HAWK'S PROJECT 8
PS2 DRAGON BALL Z: BUDOKAI TENKAICHI 2
PS2 LEGO STAR WARS
PS2 BLACK
PS2 FIFA SOCCER 07
PS2 MADDEN NFL 07
PS2 NBA LIVE 07
PS2 NCAA FOOTBALL 07
PS2 NEED FOR SPEED: CARBON
PS2 NEED SPEED: MOST WANTED
PS2 NFL STREET 3
PS2 THE SIMS 2: PETS
PS2 TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 07
PS2 DDR SUPER NOVA BUNDLE
PS2 LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY
PS2 STAR WARS: BATTLEFRONT II
PS2 THRILLVILLE
PS2 HAPPY FEET
PS2 MORTAL KOMBAT: ARMAGEDDON
PS2 NARUTO: UZUMAKI CHRONICLES
PS2 ATV OFFROAD FURY 4
PS2 GOD OF WAR
PS2 SINGSTAR ROCKS!
PS2 SOCOM: U.S. NAVY SEALS COMBINED ASSAULT
PS2 FINAL FANTASY XII
PS2 KINGDOM HEARTS II
PS2 BULLY
PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO: LIBERTY CITY STORIES
PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO: SAN ANDREAS
PS2 MIDNIGHT CLUB 3: DUB ED REMIX
PS2 NBA 2K7
PS2 AVATAR: THE LAST AIRBENDER
PS2 CARS
PS2 DESTROY ALL HUMANS! 2
PS2 WWE SMACKDOWN VS. RAW 2007
PS2 WWE SMACKDOWN! VS RAW 2006
PS2 ERAGON
PS2 LEGEND OF SPYRO: A NEW BEGINNING
PS2 SCARFACE: THE WORLD IS YOURS


XBX CALL OF DUTY 3
XBX MADDEN NFL 07
XBX NEED FOR SPEED: CARBON
XBX HALO 2


GCN LEGO STAR WARS
GCN MADDEN NFL 07
GCN LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY
GCN DK: JUNGLE W/BONGOS
GCN LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS
GCN MARIO KART: DOUBLE
GCN CARS

 

[Tap In]

Anyway, I think the one big conclusion here should be that no data is 100% accurate - neither sold/shipped numbers from the console manufacturers nor sales reports from NPD. I hope we won't see anyone quoting this or that number as an absolute truth in the future.

we will unfortunately but they are the only measuring stick we have.

But I agree.... anyone that points to this/these threads for HARD factual numbers would be mistaken IMO.

 

[Rangers]

NPD probably underreports US sales, and then there's Canada which should be about 10% of the US sales. Although I haven't got a clue if PS3 is available there at all.

You can also play with the thought that from those 1 million PS3s, some have yet to arrive into stores, not to mention customers' homes... you now, a little magic with the numbers.

Exactly there can be up to 4-8 weeks in the channel, supposedly, if shipped by boat.

So all Jan-Feb sales could be in that shipped number.

Not too mention the company rounding up to make the number sound better, etc.

Shipped numbers are always a good deal above sales numbers. 1m claimed shipped on ~700k sold is nothing unusual.

 

[Rangers]

One thing that strikes me is that ms needs to quit dallying and price drop already.

Look at the top selling consoles, DS $129, PS2 $129, and X360 essentially $400.

If ms really wants to strike while the iron is hot they need to drop the premium to 299 ASAP. 360 sales are okay but they could be better. And I'm betting January will be a slow time for them (Wii and PS3 at least have supply constraint excuse, which should be easing).

Jan sales could very well show 360 third among next-gen consoles as Wii and PS3 become widely available..moreso Wii.

Ms has based it's whole market fulcrum on getting out to a big early lead and the platform momentum that builds. Therefore, I think they are being far too cautious on price right now, and giving the opponents a chance to get back in the game.

 

[Geo]

Is my memory of the progression of PS3 numbers roughly correct? They started with a 4M target in NA (Edit: Ahh, that might have been worldwide, so including Japan, but still) by end of year, sort of moseyed to 2M at some point, and now appear to have done in the neighborhood (generously) of 1M?

 

[Carl B]

In the end, nothing really shocking to see here I guess.

PSP did surprisingly well, and we saw in visual terms how single "big hit" games can change the course of things for a console, via the Gears of War launch/sales effect.

 

[Carl B]

Is my memory of the progression of PS3 numbers roughly correct? They started with a 4M target in NA by end of year, sort of moseyed to 2M at some point, and now appear to have done in the neighborhood (generously) of 1M?

1.5 million Geo, 1.5...

Remember, that 2 million target is an 'out the door' target; between NA and Japan, I think frankly they got pretty close on the shipment side where probably no one thought they would.

 

[Bad_Boy]

Is my memory of the progression of PS3 numbers roughly correct? They started with a 4M target in NA by end of year, sort of moseyed to 2M at some point, and now appear to have done in the neighborhood (generously) of 1M?

I thought they said 4M worldwide shipped, then they cut their numbers to 2M world wide (atleast in the places they shipped in 2006, NA & JP). So I guess they made their updated NA number by shipping 1 million, but failed on their JP shipment of the other 1M of around half a million?

Nintendo had a similar issue it seems with their orginal 4M number.

Anyways, Overall I think Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo should all be pleased at the numbers. Of course it probably could of been a lot better, but all things considered I think they all had a good holiday.

 

[Tap In]

1.5 million Geo, 1.5...

Remember, that 2 million target is an 'out the door' target; between NA and Japan, I think frankly they got pretty close on the shipment side where probably no one thought they would.

we're mixing SHIPPED and SOLD numbers in here again

 

[Carl B]

Anyways, Overall I think Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo should all be pleased at the numbers. Of course it probably could of been a lot better, but all things considered I think they all had a good holiday.

Well, "good" is relative.

I think Micrsoft and Nintendo are of course happy; Sony I think feels good in the sense that they shipped near their mark, but it's of course been an expensive and bumpy ride to get there. If anything, I think they probably feel good that the strong PS2, PS2 software, and PSP sales may help defray what is otherwise set to be a multi-billion dollar PS3 launch in terms of expense.

 

[Carl B]

we're mixing SHIPPED and SOLD numbers in here again

No... how's that? Sony said they'd ship 2 million by years end, and they announced 1 million shipped for N America, and I know they've shipped at least 500k in Japan... how are the numbers off?

See - you just got to stay fluid Tap In; Geo took it off of 'sell-through,' and I'm just responding in context.

 

[Tap In]

No... how's that? Sony said they'd ship 2 million by years end, and they announced 1 million shipped for N America, and I know they've shipped at least 500k in Japan... how are the numbers off?

See - you just got to stay fluid Tap In; Geo took it off of 'sell-through,' and I'm just responding in context.

Well I assumed he was referring to Sold to date numbers since that's what this thread is about (but I could be mistaken ) which in NA according to these NPD numbers are:

HW Sales (LTD)
Xbox 360 1.1 mm 4.5 mm
Wii 604.2 K 1.1 mm
PS3 490.7 K 687.3 K


Either way he is right that they missed the "original targets, shipped or sold" (since revised a couple of times as you have mentioned)

 

[Carl B]

Well I assumed he was referring to Sold to date numbers since that's what this thread is about (but I could be mistaken ) which in NA according to these NPD numbers are:

HW Sales (month and LTD)
Xbox 360 1.1 mm 4.5 mm
Wii 604.2 K 1.1 mm
PS3 490.7 K 687.3 K

Well, he was referencing Sony's stated targets - so I was just responding in that context.

I think the ultimate confusion lies in that Geo probably was refering to sold numbers, because he thought that's what Sony's prior claims were in reference to. I think he also thought that those promised numbers were for N America only, vs worldwide.

 

[Bad_Boy]

Well, "good" is relative.

I think Micrsoft and Nintendo are of course happy; Sony I think feels good in the sense that they shipped near their mark, but it's of course been an expensive and bumpy ride to get there. If anything, I think they probably feel good that the strong PS2, PS2 software, and PSP sales may help defray what is otherwise set to be a multi-billion dollar PS3 launch in terms of expense.

Well yeah thats what I meant so I agree.

Microsoft had great 360 sales.
Sony had great PSP/PS2 sales.
Nintendo had great DS/GBA sales.
The only dissapointments to me are probably Wii and PS3 numbers (which obviously could of been better), but like you said the rest of their hardware kinda makes up for it, atleast at a business point of view.

I kinda wonder what Wii/PS3 sales would look like if Nintendo shipped more Wii's, and Sony shipped in Europe. But I guess we shall never know.

 

[Tap In]

Well, he was referencing Sony's stated targets - so I was just responding in that context.

I think the ultimate confusion lies in that Geo probably was refering to sold numbers, because he thought that's what Sony's prior claims were in reference to. I think he also thought that those promised numbers were for N America only, vs worldwide.

you're probably right about misinterpretation but i was pointing out the distinction

(but weren't their targets for NA?)

 

[Carl B]

you're probably right

(but weren't their targets for NA?)

No no, it was a million per territory... (after the inital target ramp-down from 4 million)

And I of course grant that they missed it by roughly 25%, but at the same time, I don't think shipping 6 million by end of March is out of reach per se... demand willing of course. If anything, the European launch should be a decently stocked one if US and Japanese demand indeed does level off for a while.