NPD August 2007

[fearsomepirate]

What non-sense, if Metroid Prime can't move software units regardless of how many days of sales it had, because the user base is there and should have generated more unit sales, then there is a problem.

They're VGChartz numbers, but that's all we can get. So how was Xbox 360 doing 1 year after release?

In its first week, Saints Row sold ~265K units and eventually went on to break a million worldwide. Dead Rising sold ~210K units its first week and has since gone platinum as well.

I wouldn't be worrying if I were Nintendo. MP3 will probably go platinum.

 

[liolio]

Hmm, if you give them another 14 months or so that means they'll have to sell something like 400k more than MS does every month and thats alot even with those titels.

I agree this kind of expectations always rely (even unconsciously) on the fact that the 360 the Wii or both could turn to be be new dreamcast and completely crumble. This won't happen.

Wii could saturate is intended market sooner than expected but when? And game library will evolve.


360 has nothing to do with dreamcast, Ms has money and editors support is impressive (as well as software sales to push further this trend).

 

[aselto]

Wii and Xbox 360 will always be cheaper and will always have massive industry support. I don't see them going anywhere and I doubt PS3 will ever catch up with their competitors. Maybe it is shorsighted, but I don't see why PS3 should outsell their competitors on monthly basis in 2008 or 2009 (as I don't know any releases after that period).

*"always" means from now to 2011-2012

As for Metroid Prime 3 - we should be happy, that a game from the series is finally succesful - over 200k in 5 days is a good result and the game will be picked up also in holiday season by new console owners.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Out of curiosity: How many MP3 units should Nintendo have moved in NA for there not to be a problem?

Considering Bioshock has a 50% higher installed base to sell to and had 11 days of sales included in the numbers (vs. 5 for MP3) does that indicate that the Xbox 360 has a problem selling to the traditional gamer demographic too?

Yeah, I was expecting MP3 to sell a little more, but it's not like their numbers were in any way bad for 4 or 5 days of sales. Over the next few months it looks like there's a batch of higher-quality titles from 3rd parties, so we can see how they sell.

Whoever mentioned the blockbuster vs indie thing, I was thinking exactly the same thing last night, but decided not to post. I think consoles are approaching a time where exclusives will be extremely rare, and the systems themselves will be homogenized somewhat. If publishers are investing $20million on a game, they're going to want it on as many systems as possible, so we're going to see more and more ports. Unless one system can come out and do something completely revolutionary, without alienating their core audience, we're going to see MS and Sony releasing very similar products and they'll be offering for the most part the same games. I think the idea of the PS3 falling right off the map is a little far fetched. I think it'll stay in 3rd, but it will be successful enough to stay afloat.

 

[liolio]

I think the idea of the PS3 falling right off the map is a little far fetched. I think it'll stay in 3rd, but it will be successful enough to stay afloat.

I agree world wide but now it's almost sure US won't help a lot to keep the ps3 afloat (too weak user base, too weak software sales).

Europe and Japan sales this christmass have to take off.

 

[Arwin]

At this point it's mathematicly a dead horse... such a huge margin between Sony and its opponents is just out of this world.

It all depends how much of the sales are dependent on when you sell them. As we've seen consoles can sell 20+ million in one year during their peak year (for example the Playstations).

I think the assumption right now is that given that a console has an early lead, that actually means something. But the Wii is a nice example of how that isn't the case. It took less than a year to overtake the 360. The same could happen for the PS3. Just as the 360 could make a huge killing next year. It's all, at this stage, very hard to predict.

 

[liolio]

Yes but the Wii is still 2.3 millions units behind in US(even at this rate it will take sometime to it to catch up with the 360).

And you somewhat hope that the wii the 360 or both could become the new dreamcast.

PS2 didn't have real competition and was surfing from scratch a successful wave.

More price is an important point, Sony will have to start a price war, they will have to bleed for money for two more years to keep theirs chances to catch with competitors.

Looks really bad if you ask me.

 

[Heinrich4]

thoughts....

1. PS3 needs to hit $399 yesterday and $299 asap just to stay competitive. Instead of catching up Sony is in danger of being lapped. Developers wont put any effort in cell optimizations if this trend continues. I forsee a lot of "lazy" aka bare minimum 360 ports. (like th xbox1 had from the ps2)

2. Wii sells great by the people who buy aren't into 3rd party software. It's the console to own and be seen sitting in your living room for Mario and party games.

3. 360 needs to hit $299 premium to dominate mainstream homes this xmas. They have the software just not the right price. I think $299 is the new $199 this gen.

4. DS sells like hotcakes but i have no friends who have one and have never seen anyone playing one outside of a retail kiosk. creepy.

Im fully agree with this post and ps3 needs urgently a price competitive with x360 and wii.

(US$499 still too expensive)

 

[Carl B]

I thought that was why they raised the 3 billion was to enable a price reduction...

What with the financial unit IPO? No - that has nothing to do with gaming. I didn't even realize that (incorrect) story reached this forum. It's just simply what it is; an IPO of said division. It's been expected for quite a while now, and is a way for the value of the unit to be more appropriately reflected in stock valuation while at the same time giving some liquid funds.

Anyway good month for the 360 - which I think we were expecting with the pricedrop/titles and everything. PS3 honestly at least slid only ~30k units compared to July; still much improved relative to June and prior, but definitely a solid third for the foreseeable future right now in NA. Wii is Wii, and will likely continue to be so for some time. I don't think things like the Lair reviews will help PS3 in September NPD's. Not that they'll hurt, but these were expected boosts that Sony won't really benefit from in the face of MS' month/quarter to shine.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Like StefanS said it's up to speculation but by witch margin Sony needs to outsell Ms and Nintendo (we don't witch will be first after christmass 2007 /later) to become 2nd by 2009?

At this point it's mathematicly a dead horse... such a huge margin between Sony and its opponents is just out of this world.

Statements like this and hurt my brain. Firstly we're not even a year in on some very expensive hardware that hasn't even had a proper price drop yet. And secondly, people talk, as always, as if there's only Winner and everyone else dies in a ditch somewhere.

Okay, maybe a lot of folk interested who's selling the most put £100 quid on at William Hill in 2003 for PS3 to come third at 20:1 odds. Maybe there's really a vested interest. But on the whole, if the console sells sufficient numbers and makes the company lots of money, it's a 'success'. You don't have to win. You don't have to come second. PS2 outsold XB some 3:1 on average in the US, or something like that. 5:1 worldwide. Did that mean XB was a dead platform with no titles? No! XB lacked the masses of PS2 exclusives (most of which none of us have ever even heard of so they're hardly lamented), but many of the major titles were cross platform and it had it's fair share of quality exclusives. If XB360 outsells PS3 2:1 for the rest of this generation, does that mean developers will drop PS3? No! Especially when there's more use of cross-platform middlewares. Thus even if PS3 maintains 3rd place, it'll still be a good, viable gaming platform, with a mix of major franchises and 1st party exclusives, as well as all it's other functions. This ain't no Gizmondo! It's not dead, nor dying, nor even anywhere close. Neither does it have to catch up with the competition. It only needs to sell enough to maintain a userbase that buys games. I don't know what 'enough' is - that'll be decided on a per developer/publisher basis. XB did all right though.

 

[Phil]

Wii and Xbox 360 will always be cheaper and will always have massive industry support. I don't see them going anywhere and I doubt PS3 will ever catch up with their competitors. Maybe it is shorsighted, but I don't see why PS3 should outsell their competitors on monthly basis in 2008 or 2009 (as I don't know any releases after that period).

I'll give you a few reasons:

- because many PS supporters (me included) haven't bought one yet
- because PS2 is still selling in very hot numbers - what will they buy?
- price will come down eventually
- software diversity is getting better
- exclusives of well known franchises

From these points, I think point 1. and 2. are the most important ones. How many PS2 has Sony sold *after* Wii and Xbox360 launched? Many. Of course, many of those PS2 owners could shift to the Xbox360 as well, but if Sony can get point 3., 4. and 5. sorted in time, they very well go for the next thing they know best: A PlayStation.

And there are over 100 million PS2 owners out there (how many of those 100 million are PS2 exclusive owners? 50+ million?). How many of them are really that interested in the Xbox software lineup? At this point, Xbox360 could have very well sold well predominently to its existing market of Xbox owners. We'll see how much more they sell once they hit the 25 million mark worldwide and start exceeding their Xbox1 userbase.

 

[liolio]

Shifty, I'm not the one to expect one actor to crumble (whether it's Nintendo or 360).

For the rest I agree as I posted something in that vein earlier

The problem remain even @400$ byQ1 2008, MS can hit 299$ nintendo whatever they want.

And brand recognition has limit... nintendo learned it .
Market will shift soon at this rate.

Thing looks bad... Sony would be crazy to start a price war they have no chance to win.

If this trend is proved by christmass sales figures, Sony would better try to follow Nintendo tactic with old gen ie make money with their market share instead of bleed money.

 

[JardeL]

Anybody has synchronized launch-to-date sales for PS3 vs. Wii vs. X360 ?..

 

[liolio]

I guess Vgchartz can give an overall good idea

 

[Rangers]

Interestingly, due to having a $350 and a $450 sku, with the core being virtually discontinued now and not contributing much, I would guess 360 average selling price is north of $375. This is another sneaky way the Elite contributes. Two years on and their ASP has probably only dropped $20-25 on 360.

Oh, and that Halo 3 360 sku, an extra $50 for a new paint job basically, will help load up the coffers as well.

I would love to get sku breakdowns for 360, but of course we dont.

 

[aselto]

- because many PS supporters (me included) haven't bought one yet

How many are there diehard PS supporters that support things because they are named "Playstation"? 5 million?

- because PS2 is still selling in very hot numbers - what will they buy?

Probably not a $499 or $399 machine (or even $299).

- price will come down eventually

Competitors price will always be lower.

- software diversity is getting better

So will competitors'.

- exclusives of well known franchises

Most of them have gone multiplatform already.

From these points, I think point 1. and 2. are the most important ones. How many PS2 has Sony sold *after* Wii and Xbox360 launched? Many. Of course, many of those PS2 owners could shift to the Xbox360 as well, but if Sony can get point 3., 4. and 5. sorted in time, they very well go for the next thing they know best: A PlayStation.

Despite PS2's massive success, more people think now that it's better to buy a 360 or a Wii than a PS3. If you take Wii and 360 combined, 5.3 times more people think it's better to buy a competetive product than a PS3. It would be probably even more if not for massive Wii shortages. Playstation brand image has already been seriously damaged - it's not THE console to have anymore.

And there are over 100 million PS2 owners out there (how many of those 100 million are PS2 exclusive owners? 50+ million?). How many of them are really that interested in the Xbox software lineup?

Xbox 360 is not Xbox though. On top of Xbox 1's legacy there are and will be japanese RPGs, Live Arcade games, more action games, music games such as Rock Band or Guitar Hero. These games not only are out there on 360, they're also often heavily advertised. Obviously 360 is not the only PS3's competitor, there is also Wii which is extremely succesful despite Gamecube's not so great performance.

At this point, Xbox360 could have very well sold well predominently to its existing market of Xbox owners. We'll see how much more they sell once they hit the 25 million mark worldwide and start exceeding their Xbox1 userbase.

That remains to be seen. But 360 seems to have better momentum than Xbox 1 at this point of time.

 

[liuelson]

Whoever mentioned the blockbuster vs indie thing, I was thinking exactly the same thing last night, but decided not to post. I think consoles are approaching a time where exclusives will be extremely rare, and the systems themselves will be homogenized somewhat. If publishers are investing $20million on a game, they're going to want it on as many systems as possible, so we're going to see more and more ports. Unless one system can come out and do something completely revolutionary, without alienating their core audience, we're going to see MS and Sony releasing very similar products and they'll be offering for the most part the same games. I think the idea of the PS3 falling right off the map is a little far fetched. I think it'll stay in 3rd, but it will be successful enough to stay afloat.

That was me - thanks for not posting and giving me a chance to

I took the same trend (rare exclusives) and came to the opposite conclusion: diversified consoles. My thought was that the "lesson" of the Wii's disruption of the market is that more publishers will reorganize to become more agile - do more projects with small-to-medium-sized budgets, and stick to proven franchises for their big blockbuster hits. I think EA has tried to reorganize to become more agile; I think companies like UbiSoft and CapCom have been rewarded in the financial markets (stock price performance) because of their agility and ability to capitalize quickly on the Wii.

This is all assuming that the install bases are comparable, with HD consoles v. Wii being within 10-20% of each other's overall market share. (I'm grouping HD consoles together for the sake of this analysis.)

If the Wii becomes a runaway success (>=70% of overall market share at some point), then obviously the "blockbuster" game model may become truly endangered. If the Wii fades very quickly (<=30% of overall market share when its sales slow down dramatically at saturation), then the "Indie" game model may be endangered.

I find myself torn - I am a fan of both blockbuster hits and Indie projects. I would like to see a market where both types of games will thrive.

 

[Zaphod]

Interestingly, due to having a $350 and a $450 sku, with the core being virtually discontinued now and not contributing much

Virtually discontinued? I doubt that very much. Just hibernating until the base cost of a 360 becomes low enough for the Core to hit a price point where it'll be able to contribute additional sales rather than cannibalize potential higher margin ones.

 

[TheChefO]

No offense Chef, but you "call" lot's of things.
For Example
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?p=1040415#post104041
Your posts 26 and 31 in that thread are very doom and Gloom for MS and victory dance for Sony. If one calls everything, then it's natural that one sometimes hits the spot also.

MS's great software is really pushing Sony into a corner. Blu-ray adoption is a big risk for Sony as it's against DVD, HD-DVD and digital distribution. It's possible that they put too much fate on a single horse. FF13 and GT5 have some catching up to do.

Obviously predicting an exact outcome is impossible. My advice to Sony was merely a safety-net tactic to allow themselves an out in case things didn't go as they expected.

Regarding the linked post(s), it was more frustration than anything else. MS has been milking the market at their pricepoints and has been leaning on ps3's inability to sell as justification for their laid back attitude on price cut aggression.

I still stand by those predictions that we will likely see a $400 ps3 by years end and a $300 one by next years end.

Also, I agree on your "Big risk" comments. I think HD-DVD is a real thorn in their side now and with the recent Dreamworks/Paramount exclusivity and Chinese manufacturing coming on board, it will get ... real ... interesting.


just so we're clear though, I was joking .... sorta

 

[TheChefO]

What with the financial unit IPO? No...

Interesting... I did not know that.

Question for you Carl:

Do you think Sony will drop the price again before their BOM reduction(s) allow, in order to capitalize on Christmas sales this year?