NPD August 2007

What math are you using?

The PS3($600) is 50% more expensive than the X360 ($400).
Oh sorry as Shifty has pointed out!

To make it simple (without Core & the 20GB model),

360: 2.4 million x $399 = $957.6 million
PS3: 1.74 million x $599 = $1042.26 million

I did see his post, and i don't see what your point is. So what it can have more price cuts if it will stay more expensive to its competitors anyway?
Wii has less and smaller chips from the beginning, so it has a less margin for cost reduction than other consoles. PS3 has Blu-ray and 360 doesn't, so 360 has less margin for cost reduction than PS3. These points of cost reduction affect their price cuts. It's a usual situation of diminishing returns. When people make decisions between $599 and $399, it's pretty easy to choose one. $199 and $149, not so easy.
 
There's a nice thing called dollar-based sales, $599 is 34% more expensive than $399.

It is one of those nice numbers that needs a context. From a Sony perspective looking at install base growth it doesn't mean much at this point (that could change). It actually has some negatives.

1. Consumers pay more, and Sony gets less consumers out of it. Not good.

2. Consumers are paying more on the console... and buying less software? Not good.

3. Follow economic lines. A percentage of people have the majority of wealth. I believe these numbers are wrong, but I will use them because most are familiar with them and they show my point. 5% of American's own 95% of the wealth. Those 5% can pay more for their toys. But dropping the price down to, say, $400 doesn't result in a direct ratio of growth. First, those buying a $400 item include the same window of consumers on the other platform who entered at $600. Call it potentially lost money on the $400 competitor.

It is like the $250,000 car dropping down to $150,000. That is a huge drop, but the percentage of people who can still buy such is small and still within that same 5%.

Personally, I think price points are more valid than dollar based sales *for consoles*. For games? Dollar based sales can be very meaningful, especially to publishers.

On the console side it is an accessibility issue, and this is why traditionally price points (and not value or total dollar sales) have been more relevant. Average consumers are influenced by many things, a significant one being the justification they have for a spontanteous purchase.

I recently had to replace my old beater of a car with a "new" used car. I had a criteria of need (reliability, safety, within a dollar range) and there was a cap. Regardless of the value of a higher priced vehicle I had set a budget for the value I was willing to invest. A $10,000 car could have been 4x as valuable as the $5,000 car, but it wouldn't have mattered because a) the baseline checklist requirements were met by both and b) the $10,000 was outside my the range I could justify--even at the added value.

Some, not all, of those principles apply to electronics and entertainment. Different cost ranges have different thought processes that induce a purchase as well as different potential consumer sizes.

The thought process behind a $199 console purchase and a $599 are quite different, as are who the consumers are and how many are potentially in the market.

Or XB360 is 66% the price of PS3, which makes PS3 34% more expensive. Not a traditional comparison, I'll agree ;)

The fun with numbers!
 
When people make decisions between $599 and $399, it's pretty easy to choose one. $199 and $149, not so easy.

Unfortunately, by the time the PS3 is $199, everything will be pretty much decided.
This holiday season is the very important part, the next will have less impact; and even by that time, I don't see the PS3 costing only $199...
 
Unfortunately, by the time the PS3 is $199, everything will be pretty much decided.
This holiday season is the very important part, the next will have less impact; and even by that time, I don't see the PS3 costing only $199...
yes, a lot of people here tend to think, that a huge part of the casual market still don't shift toward "next-gen" because the ps3 is still not affordable, but in fact the same huge part of the casual market doesn't shift toward next-gen because both ps3&360 are too expensive /games are expensive too...

Few people will shift @400$ even less above that mark
slightly more @300$
way more at 250$
even more@199$
>@199$ too conservative part of the market who jump in when the game is mostly over from a manufacturer point of view.

If some people here could come here with theirs guesstimations on how much these different marks rank in percentage of the global market, I guess we could have something more sensitive to discuss and how lagging behind these mark can translate in market share loss (or not those who don't agree).
 
Unfortunately, by the time the PS3 is $199, everything will be pretty much decided.
This holiday season is the very important part, the next will have less impact; and even by that time, I don't see the PS3 costing only $199...
It's obvious what Microsoft's plan was like as seen in the release date of Halo 3. Is it going as well as they planned? Did they foresee GTA4's slip, the RRoD issue, and Wii's effect on the 360 Core in the competition for those who can afford $300 this holiday season? There are many things to look at IMHO in the next year.
 
I'm sorry but I can't let that one just go by the way-side; did you just call Madden '07 on the 360 clearly superior? Superior to what, it had half of the features of any other version on the market! Talk about revisionist history...:oops:
More it's starting to make lesser and lesser sense to compare systems a time x for one and time x+1 for another one, especially as for another system this kind of argument is never used.
All three manufacturers face the consumers NOW whatever theirs offers are.
 
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I'm sorry but I can't let that one just go by the way-side; did you just call Madden '07 on the 360 clearly superior? Superior to what, it had half of the features of any other version on the market! Talk about revisionist history...:oops:
I guess he meant the 360 version vs the PS2 version in 2006.

The plan was mentioned previously, releasing a highly anticipated game in September nets you, in the case of HALO millions of sales in September, to be followed by the millions of sales at the holiday shopping season. This is what happened to Fable, and with all due respect, Fable is no HALO when it comes to fanbase. But perhaps I misunderstood what you are saying.
I have no idea how Fable is related to 360, do you mean what it was like in Xbox 1?
 
I have no idea how Fable is related to 360, do you mean what it was like in Xbox 1?

The point about Fable I thought was pretty straight forward:

Instead of releasing a title in November or December, you release in September. You get a nice bump in September (traditionally about 1/2 of November sales and 1/4 December sales) and then get to "double dip" in November/December.

So instead of putting your "big app" in traditionally "big selling" months you hit the smaller selling month, knowing that the big selling Nov/Dec months are a given.

Fable did this I believe.

The same philosophy is behind price drops. Dropping in March bumps off season sales. Dropping in Nov/Dec makes little sense* as those months already have huge sales. * Of course it can make sense if you are going through a process node switch and the first oppurtunity is fall... or if you are supply limited in Spring and correct the issue in Fall. BUT you typically want more level production and maximize off months as there are only so many units you can push through at the end of the year.
 
I'm sorry but I can't let that one just go by the way-side; did you just call Madden '07 on the 360 clearly superior? Superior to what, it had half of the features of any other version on the market! Talk about revisionist history...:oops:
what i meant was, the 360 version of Madden 07 was clearly the superior version out of all the platforms it was released for (PS2, Xbox, Xbox 360). but i forgot Madden 07 was released on PS3 too, but on a later date. i didn't know the 360 version had less features than the other console versions.
 
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The point about Fable I thought was pretty straight forward:

Instead of releasing a title in November or December, you release in September. You get a nice bump in September (traditionally about 1/2 of November sales and 1/4 December sales) and then get to "double dip" in November/December.

So instead of putting your "big app" in traditionally "big selling" months you hit the smaller selling month, knowing that the big selling Nov/Dec months are a given.

Fable did this I believe.

The same philosophy is behind price drops. Dropping in March bumps off season sales. Dropping in Nov/Dec makes little sense* as those months already have huge sales. * Of course it can make sense if you are going through a process node switch and the first oppurtunity is fall... or if you are supply limited in Spring and correct the issue in Fall. BUT you typically want more level production and maximize off months as there are only so many units you can push through at the end of the year.
Thanks, but what I meant by my comment was not about September release, but about the third holiday season in the console cycle.

Both the XBOX and PS2 versions of Madden '07 were clearly superior to the 360 version. CLEARLY.
This discussion is about sales right? I doubt most of those who had 360 or wanted to buy a 360 for its hi-def goodness were keen enough to research what modes it supported and even though they had found what it actually was it's unlikely to buy a PS2 version instead just for that.
 
Both the XBOX and PS2 versions of Madden '07 were clearly superior to the 360 version. CLEARLY.


Yup. The last game I bought for XBOX was NCAA '07. If the 360 version had been comparable I would have bought my 360 several months earlier. Instead, I ended up buying it when NBA 2k7 came out.
 
No, you were clear. I know to what you were referring, but the only "superior" aspect of the game was maybe graphics, so I still hold that the PS2/XBOX versions were superior, that is why I commented that half the features of those skus are not in the 360 sku.

EDIT: "...those skus..." would be PS2/XBOX, just for clarification.
ok, i realize that now. but still, i think more people would lean towards the 360 version if they had a choice between the 360 or PS2/Xbox, same with Madden 08 on 360/PS3. i still don't think its fair to compare Madden 07 sales on 360 to Madden 08 sales on PS3.
 
This discussion is about sales right? I doubt most of those who had 360 or wanted to buy a 360 for its hi-def goodness were keen enough to research what modes it supported and even though they found what it actually was it's unlikely to buy a PS2 version instead just for that.

Think sports gamers so shallow as to be attracted to just a pretty face? Personally, I want a sports game for its AI.:p

Seriously, though, yes. There is a segment of the Madden user base that would stick with a graphically inferior version if it had more depth. There were several iterations of NBA Live where I spent a much greater than 50% ratio playing Owner/GM vs. the actual games. I'd simulate through the regular season and just play the playoffs (assuming I made them).
 
Think sports gamers so shallow as to be attracted to just a pretty face? Personally, I want a sports game for its AI.:p

Seriously, though, yes. There is a segment of the Madden user base that would stick with a graphically inferior version if it had more depth. There were several iterations of NBA Live where I spent a much greater than 50% ratio playing Owner/GM vs. the actual games. I'd simulate through the regular season and just play the playoffs (assuming I made them).
I respect hardcore fans of these games, but IIRC there was a huge promotion campaign for the first next-gen Madden. I still remember the first next-gen Madden render images that hit internet in 2005, and the Microsoft E3 conference in 2006.
 
ok, i realize that now. but still, i think more people would lean towards the 360 version if they had a choice between the 360 or PS2/Xbox, same with Madden 08 on 360/PS3. i still don't think its fair to compare Madden 07 sales on 360 to Madden 08 sales on PS3.

Madden sales were very strong in 2006 on the old consoles. The PS2 had 1M in August and 2.8M in CY2006. All the reviews slammed the 360 version in 2005 and 2006 for having worse features than the PS2/Xbox versions.

Based on the critical press reviews and sales I think most people opted for the older versions. I know among serious Madden gamers I know this was often the case.

Madden 08 in Aug2007 was the first time the PS2 version got elipsed by the 360. PS2 went from 1M in Aug 2006 to 643K in Aug 2007; the 360 version went for 575K to 897K.

While next gen/graphics impacted sales, it really didn't prove to shift the market until a better version appeared on the new consoles.
 
Did they foresee GTA4's slip, the RRoD issue, and Wii's effect on the 360 Core in the competition for those who can afford $300 this holiday season? There are many things to look at IMHO in the next year.

Noone could've foreseen the RRoD issue. Seems like MS has to learn everything about becoming a hw vendor the hard way - first Nvidia and Intel pretty much ripped them off, so they've decided to design their own system. Then it turned out that it's a lot more complex to build a game console and they'll need better engineers for it.
GTA4 came out of the blue as well. Rockstar hasn't disclosed anything about it so we don't know how much development time went into it - but they've promised october and so everyone believed it.
Yet the Madden part seems to work well for them, and Halo3 preorders are rising high as expected, too.

However, none of these have any effect on the most important thing here: MS and Nintendo are going to duke it out for the US market leader position without any significant interference from Sony.
 
However, none of these have any effect on the most important thing here: MS and Nintendo are going to duke it out for the US market leader position without any significant interference from Sony.
For that matter I'm curious to know how you will evaluate whether Microsoft fulfill its goal without any significant interference from Sony this holiday season. Do you have any ballpark figures for that, like selling X more units than PS3 etc?
 
For that matter I'm curious to know how you will evaluate whether Microsoft fulfill its goal without any significant interference from Sony this holiday season. Do you have any ballpark figures for that, like selling X more units than PS3 etc?

Well they only sold ~600k more than Sony last year in december, so perhaps they would expect an improvement on that. Personally I would expect about 1.6 million in december for MS this year. Wii will have the best december relative to last year.
 
I don't know and don't really care about any golas of MS, short or long term. They obviously want to increase their market share, make a profit, and probably see a chance to become - actually, remain - the market leader in the US. To do this they need to sell a lot of consoles and games and that's it.

What you've quoted means what it means. Either MS will become the market leader in the US, or Nintendo - in my opinion, Sony's already lost their chance to compete. The 360 is in a far better position, and even it has to fear the Wii. So how could Sony outdo them both, from the third place, with almost everything - price, games library, market share - against them?
 
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