Nintendo announce: Nintendo NX

[Syferz]

I think the point people are trying to make is that no one actually knows what was meant, and people are trying to interpret and extrapolate something that the original poster didn't even know much about - this is simply inferred from the talk of 'polygons', which no one apart from clueless journalists or financial analysts would talk about in this day and age.
Just because it's a rumour 'for investors' doesn't make it true, in fact I'd argue that makes it even more suspicious, from experience.

Right, he himself was asked if it was more powerful than PS4 and he answered "I Don't Know" the rumor's value isn't in it's performance, but the other details. "Software Development Kits" should pretty much be assumed at this point, as DQ11 was "announced" for NX, so Square Enix has seen the thing in some capacity and found it capable of running their game. With the polygons example it doesn't mean much but could hint at a high clock speed for the GPU and/or a more efficient API for drawcalls being used.

It could also be that Nintendo opens less production lines (meaning something like 500k consoles per month, rather then million) because they got burned so badly with Wii U. They ended up with huge inventory and they still haven't sold 'em all (I think Pachter said something about 12-15 million units). I'd bet Wii U lifetime sales will end up within that range if NX lauches next year.

Very possible, I don't really hold the Digitimes article with high regards, so 20 million NX devices might not make sense, though in it's first year combined Wii U and 3DS sold something like 19 million.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Should we even believe the NX DQ11 as solid info? Plenty of games get announced for platforms before getting canned. At this point I consider that announcement as an intention pending review. It's likely as it's a UE4 game that should port as long as the engine is ported, but it's not really much proof yet of anything either. Certainly the NX version could get delayed a year because the hardware wasn't ready to develop on, say.

 

[Syferz]

Should we even believe the NX DQ11 as solid info? Plenty of games get announced for platforms before getting canned. At this point I consider that announcement as an intention pending review. It's likely as it's a UE4 game that should port as long as the engine is ported, but it's not really much proof yet of anything either. Certainly the NX version could get delayed a year because the hardware wasn't ready to develop on, say.

If NX runs UE4, that sort of delay wouldn't make sense. Square Enix is going to be looking at about 3 million PS4s in Japan, and if NX launches along side the game, I doubt they wouldn't want to take advantage of it, DQ10 was launched alongside the Wii U and Square Enix banking on a western audience to pay for that game is unlikely IMO. The way it was announced was more likely that they already decided to put it on NX, but it could be cancelled, even Uncharted 4 could be cancelled though so I don't think we should just ignore that information either.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

NX may not run UE4. That may have been what Epic were telling SE they were planning for, based on info they had from Nintendo. But devs get caught with their pants down targeting unknown development. Wasn't it MGS on PS3 where Kojima said he overshot the hardware? I recall every launch of recent times having "100+ games in development" and only a fraction of those were released.

Until we see DQ11 running on an NX devkit, or are told it's in progress, we can't be sure there's any work happening on the NX version.

 

[Syferz]

NX may not run UE4. That may have been what Epic were telling SE they were planning for, based on info they had from Nintendo. But devs get caught with their pants down targeting unknown development. Wasn't it MGS on PS3 where Kojima said he overshot the hardware? I recall every launch of recent times having "100+ games in development" and only a fraction of those were released.

Until we see DQ11 running on an NX devkit, or are told it's in progress, we can't be sure there's any work happening on the NX version.

Makes sense, I'm not sure but speculating on the possibility and that I see as highly likely. I heavily doubt they stuck with ppc and UE4 is very scalable, even the Wii U supports UE4 through that castlevania creator's Kickstarter.

 

[Rangers]

I guess, just a note, somebody can correct me if there's newer info, Nintendo never said this box was coming in 2016, they only promised we would learn more about it in 2016 or something like that.

In fact I guess it's a no brainer it wont be out until 2017 at the earliest., as we'd have to be hearing stuff about holiday 2016 multiplats already otherwise as those are heavy in development.

 

[Grall]

As mentioned before, it coming in 2017 would mean two christmases with nothing. Because Wuu has basically bupkes from here on out. Oh, there's a tiny smattering of titles in the pipe, but they'll dry up fast as hell, and then there won't be anything to be excited about for a long long long long time, and by that time has passed you'll probably have bought a 4bone already and won't care about NX anymore.

 

[McHuj]

I don't see how Nintendo can manage to go through 2016 without new hardware. Given the speculation that the NX could be two devices, a handheld and console, it's possible that only one of them releases next year.

I don't believe Nintendo will release a console to match specs with the other two, so I'm not counting on multi-platform titles, unless they are of the indy kind (less performance demanding). I think with a combined platform for both handheld and console, Nintendo will be able to increase their output of games overall; thus, making the system/platform much more desirable.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Handheld 2016, Nintendo's stronger sector, and compatible console the year after to sell to the NX handheld owners, is pretty compelling.

 

[AlNom]

Given the 14/16nm demand/supply, it would probably be better to go with a small design as well.

 

[Pixel]

Nintendo should just partner with Google for the Android OS, and HTC or Samsung for the hardware and come out with an android gaming phone with a real control scheme to bring core gaming to mobile phones, and of course with exclusive content just for these phones.

Perhaps haptic buttons and a Valve haptic feeback pad on the back of the phone.

 

[dobwal]

As mentioned before, it coming in 2017 would mean two christmases with nothing. Because Wuu has basically bupkes from here on out. Oh, there's a tiny smattering of titles in the pipe, but they'll dry up fast as hell, and then there won't be anything to be excited about for a long long long long time, and by that time has passed you'll probably have bought a 4bone already and won't care about NX anymore.

Its Nintendo, who thinks the ideal reality is where they are the only one developing games for their console. Its not like they don't have a ton of first party devs that can support the wii u until 2017.

 

[liolio]

Just a random question, does anybody here has experience working with the 3DS and so could tell us how its 3D performances relate to nowadays average SOC?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I guess, just a note, somebody can correct me if there's newer info, Nintendo never said this box was coming in 2016, they only promised we would learn more about it in 2016 or something like that.

In fact I guess it's a no brainer it wont be out until 2017 at the earliest., as we'd have to be hearing stuff about holiday 2016 multiplats already otherwise as those are heavy in development.

IIRC, during an investor meeting Nintendo said the new platform would be coming in Fiscal Year 2016. That leaves them until March 2017 to release the new console(s), and missing holiday 2016 would be really stupid.

The reason Nintendo chose not to say anything about the NX during this year's E3 is because they still had (and have) a ton of delayed Wii U titles that would otherwise be cannibalized by the news of the new console.

Heck, Zelda doesn't even have a release date yet.

 

[Rikimaru]

IIRC, during an investor meeting Nintendo said the new platform would be coming in Fiscal Year 2016. That leaves them until March 2017 to release the new console(s), and missing holiday 2016 would be really stupid.

3DS came out in spring. DS Lite in summer.

 

[Grall]

Its not like they don't have a ton of first party devs that can support the wii u until 2017.

Well no, actually they don't. Because who will make the launch lineup for NX if their dev teams (which really aren't THAT many) are locked up supporting the ailing Wuu?

Wuu is a millstone around Nintendo's neck, and they know this. I'd be hugely surprised if there'll be any software support at all for Wuu into '17, much less all the way up to the holiday season.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

3DS came out in spring. DS Lite in summer.

The 3DS had a horrible start and the DS Lite was a hardware refresh of the DS, which was launched in November.

 

[Entropy]

Given the 14/16nm demand/supply, it would probably be better to go with a small design as well.

While this may be true, depending on timing specifics, it may not be that big a deal.
TSMC will be looking to transition Apple production to 10nm at the end of 2016 expecting "very fast" ramping of volume. If so, TSMC will want customers who can absorb the large slack created when Apple takes their products to 10nm. Nintendo may fit well there, if they contract a decent sized total production. Digitimes wrote that suppliers had been notified of a volume of 20 million for the first year, so a modest number of initial chips, ramping as Apple transitions to 10nm is a possibility.
Of course, there are cost as well as capacity reasons for keeping the die size relatively modest, but <200mm2 can still do quite a bit in 16nm. Of course, they may go with 130mm2 or some such. We just don't know. But even that would allow them to compete overall with the PS4, if they so chose.
This is all speculation though.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

20 million target for year one?! If the same chip is used in handheld and console, maybe. Otherwise it's a crazy target, unless they really have something special.

 

[Entropy]

20 million target for year one?! If the same chip is used in handheld and console, maybe. Otherwise it's a crazy target, unless they really have something special.

Digitimes has pretty good sources in the Taiwanese supply channels. They have no reason to make a specific number up so I'm inclined to believe it was simply given to them by a supply channel source. It was pretty remarkable, yes, but it should be noted that it specifies a number and a time span for the supplier, not that Nintendo necessarily expects to actually sell that number to consumers during the first year. It does imply that they are very confident that their device will sell better than the WiiU.