*AHEM* Please take the alternative media discussion to the proper thread: https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/...o-optical-disks-ssd-cards-and-download.42843/
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It only cropped up here in relation to the Digitimes Nintendo NX rumour, and the claimed sales target of 20 million devices the first year. Which in my book is enough to discredit the rumour, but if we take it at face value as a basis for speculation, I think we can agree that the price point not only has to represent value in the eyes of the consumer, but must also be accessible in absolute terms. For a stationary console it helps the BOM a lot to get rid of optical drive and HDD.
I simply can't see what it would take for Nintendo to have confidence in their ability to drive sales to 20 million the first year.
Digitimes isn't really reliable.
IIRC they were behind the "360 Blu Ray drives to start production" or whatever back then. *(which it seems they've deleted as I can only find second hand links like this one http://www.engadget.com/2008/04/01/next-generation-xbox-360-with-built-in-blu-ray-coming-in-2008/)
Doesn't mean it cant be true of course.
What Nintendo said in their investors meeting definitely leads me to believe it's likely another console built around a gimmick.
Give me a Nvidia shield-type and spec box, all Nintendo's old SNES and NES classics available on it, and then double the power of Wii U for todays 3D Marios's and Zelda's, price it at 199 and Nintendo (probably) has me back as a customer for the first time since the N64. A tall order I guess.
I spent some effort digging a bit deeper into the Digitimes rumour, following the trail of company names.
Foxconn and Pegatron are final assembly/QC powerhouses. Foxconn has been manufacturing both the 3DS and the WiiU.
Macronix specialises in non-volatile memory solutions. They have a longstanding relationship with Nintendo for various circuitry, 3DS game cards and so on.
PixArt supplies CMOS image sensors and associated circuitry. Supplies an ASIC in the Wii remote, among other things.
COXON is a plastic moulding firm.
Nishoku Technology also does plastic moulding for consumer electronics. Seems to do work for the 3DS.
Delta Electronics specialise in power supplies.
Linguine does printed circuit board assembly. Is involved in MEMS.
Jentech does metal stamping, moulding, machining and so on.
OK. So what is absent?
There is no supplier of optical drives, (nor hard drives), displays or display driver circuitry. No supplier of RAM. Neither TSMC or UMC is mentioned, despite the volumes involved, 20 million SoCs/APUs is a substantial order even for them.
Digitimes reports primarily on Taiwan electronics industry, and there are mainland Chinese, or Japanese suppliers of all of the above, so the absence of these from the list shouldn't be over interpreted.
So if this rumour is legitimate, it can't be said to emphatically indicate either a handheld or a stationary device. The lack of optical drive associated suppliers is no guarantee of a handheld device, any more than the absence of display associated suppliers a guarantee of a stationary device. Unfortunately.
Foxconn and Pegatron are final assembly/QC powerhouses. Foxconn has been manufacturing both the 3DS and the WiiU.
Macronix specialises in non-volatile memory solutions. They have a longstanding relationship with Nintendo for various circuitry, 3DS game cards and so on.
PixArt supplies CMOS image sensors and associated circuitry. Supplies an ASIC in the Wii remote, among other things.
COXON is a plastic moulding firm.
Nishoku Technology also does plastic moulding for consumer electronics. Seems to do work for the 3DS.
Delta Electronics specialise in power supplies.
Linguine does printed circuit board assembly. Is involved in MEMS.
Jentech does metal stamping, moulding, machining and so on.
OK. So what is absent?
There is no supplier of optical drives, (nor hard drives), displays or display driver circuitry. No supplier of RAM. Neither TSMC or UMC is mentioned, despite the volumes involved, 20 million SoCs/APUs is a substantial order even for them.
Digitimes reports primarily on Taiwan electronics industry, and there are mainland Chinese, or Japanese suppliers of all of the above, so the absence of these from the list shouldn't be over interpreted.
So if this rumour is legitimate, it can't be said to emphatically indicate either a handheld or a stationary device. The lack of optical drive associated suppliers is no guarantee of a handheld device, any more than the absence of display associated suppliers a guarantee of a stationary device. Unfortunately.
As Shifty noted (somewhere), Wii appears to be the only home console to ship 20M in Year 1. PS4 was aboot 18M.
edit: well, I guess it's more like Nov launch to end of December of the following year for the numbers.
/AlNets
Yeah, it was from launch to the end of the next calendar year [five quarters]. By dec31 2007 Wii shipped 20.1M, while PS4 by dec31 2014 sold to consumers 18.5M [shipped number was not revealed I think]. It was close, but Wii won, mostly because during that period its install base was 4M larger in Japan [5M Wiis vs 1M PS4s].
Yeah, it was from launch to the end of the next calendar year [five quarters]. By dec31 2007 Wii shipped 20.1M, while PS4 by dec31 2014 sold to consumers 18.5M [shipped number was not revealed I think]. It was close, but Wii won, mostly because during that period its install base was 4M larger in Japan [5M Wiis vs 1M PS4s].
It's hard to see how Nintendo could sell 20M consoles without a pile of killer software, including third parties. PS4 rode on a strong brand name, strong performance, decent price, and the promise of a lot of hot software in the pipe. Universal support from ALL publishers (except Nintendo, naturally 
) goes without saying.
Nintendo has none of that.
For NX to gain good 3rd party support after decades of neglect at best, and sometimes outright hostility towards other developers and publishers would require a not-so-small miracle at this late stage. It would require a total turnaround of Nintendo way of operations - frankly I'm not convinced they're even capable of this. If they've stuck to their "no, we can make it alone!" mode of thinking this long, it seems completely ingrained into their company structure. It's like the ghost of that old fucker Yamauchi is still haunting them (the family is still a major, or even largest shareholder in the company IIRC, which could perhaps be one cause of this behavior.)
) goes without saying.Nintendo has none of that.
For NX to gain good 3rd party support after decades of neglect at best, and sometimes outright hostility towards other developers and publishers would require a not-so-small miracle at this late stage. It would require a total turnaround of Nintendo way of operations - frankly I'm not convinced they're even capable of this. If they've stuck to their "no, we can make it alone!" mode of thinking this long, it seems completely ingrained into their company structure. It's like the ghost of that old fucker Yamauchi is still haunting them (the family is still a major, or even largest shareholder in the company IIRC, which could perhaps be one cause of this behavior.)
Nintendo's recurring fiscal forecasts for systems already out were ridiculous high in recent times anyway IIRC, and they wouldn't adjust them til it was long past obvious they'd get nowhere close.
They're just ahh, how to put it nicely, not a very competent company IMO
Anyways it's on GAF, some guy on twitter who has been right about stuff before says by "talking to the right people" he's now "absolutely sure" Wii U wont compete on a power level.
Could be zilch of course, but it makes me wonder more if the $149 Wii U rumor has some truth. Another thing is if Nintendo really plans to bring out a high powered console in 2016 (which too be fair 2016 release isn't confirmed, just reveal), A) wouldn't it really be pushing R&D turnaround times B) wouldn't we have heard leaks by now?
They're just ahh, how to put it nicely, not a very competent company IMO
Anyways it's on GAF, some guy on twitter who has been right about stuff before says by "talking to the right people" he's now "absolutely sure" Wii U wont compete on a power level.
Could be zilch of course, but it makes me wonder more if the $149 Wii U rumor has some truth. Another thing is if Nintendo really plans to bring out a high powered console in 2016 (which too be fair 2016 release isn't confirmed, just reveal), A) wouldn't it really be pushing R&D turnaround times B) wouldn't we have heard leaks by now?
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By that notion there is absolutely no place for a WiiU revamp either! Unless they only plan to sell 8 - 10 million total to all the Nintendo Fans who keep playing the same games over and over and over again decade after decade.
tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
Yeah, rather be playing cod 38 or ff 519.
I'd like to play some of the Nintendo games (maybe 3 of em) for the first time in ages, but I'm not going to spend the entire cost of a MS or Sony console to be able to do so. I dont play sports games at all and havent supported Cod since the bad treatment by the publisher towards the original InfinityWard team.
D
Deleted member 13524
Guest
If the NX is a handheld console, then of course it wouldn't compete with the PS4 in performance. Not for a 2016 launch, at least.
But if it can deliver PS4-like visuals on a 6-7" tablet with gamepad controls within a 720p screen (or maybe 1920*540 for stereoscopic 3D?), then it'd be a nice 3rd pillar for videogames.
Sony isn't likely to present a new handheld anytime soon, and Nintendo has been financially successful with their handhelds so far.
But if it can deliver PS4-like visuals on a 6-7" tablet with gamepad controls within a 720p screen (or maybe 1920*540 for stereoscopic 3D?), then it'd be a nice 3rd pillar for videogames.
Sony isn't likely to present a new handheld anytime soon, and Nintendo has been financially successful with their handhelds so far.
The interest in a dedicated portable gaming device with high-end visuals is still unproven I think. That's the route Vita went and it didn't get very far. I don't think, "world's most powerful portable gaming device," will be a worthwhile USP, and certainly won't be worth 20 million first year sales. Maybe if it supported TV connectivity for 720p home gaming as well as a portable?
Excepting of course PS4 like performance in a handheld isn't happening unless there's either no battery life or a massive separate battery pack...
Excepting of course PS4 like performance in a handheld isn't happening unless there's either no battery life or a massive separate battery pack...
Rikimaru
Veteran
There is if it is substantially cheaper. And maybe has interesting gimmick (I doubt it is interesting though).
At some point I thought they might try something VR, but Miyamoto said with a straight face that Star Fox (no relation) with the wiiblet is not far off from a VR experience... I think any future attempt at VR from Nintendo will be an underspec failure.
Artistically though, Nintendo have always prefered minimal graphics fidelity and high frame rate. They could be good at making fun VR games. Same shitty graphics but in VR on 2x WiiU.
Yes, I am bitter and sad.
Artistically though, Nintendo have always prefered minimal graphics fidelity and high frame rate. They could be good at making fun VR games. Same shitty graphics but in VR on 2x WiiU.
Yes, I am bitter and sad.
Their handheld success doesn't really have to do with graphics performance though, so if they aim low for the console, they're going to aim low for a handheld. Probably will be less powerful than phones and tablets already out on the market. May not even meet Vita, which was how many years ago?
So they're not even going to try to meet the performance of what are now 2-year old consoles. Their games are fantastic but they alone can't move tens of millions of hardware units.
I think Nintendo is fine with being niche, as long as they make decent profits. No interest in winning market share. Maybe they can be like Apple, have low market share but most of the profits.
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