A 5700XT is only 251mm2. Paired with an 8 core Zen 2, we can expect a similar die size to the launch PS4: ~330mm2.
7nm
If we assume a 40CU (44CU's with 4 disabled) part tuned in line with undervolted 5700XT's, we can expect it to consistently reach 1950mhz:
40*64*2*1.95 = 10.98TF RDNA 1
If memory serves, that can result in a wattage along the lines of 160W. I'll double check that shortly, unless someone here happens to have that information to hand. Well within the realm of console power consumption. Relatively high - especially when you factor in other components - but nothing too bonkers.
7nm+
A 20% increase in density would mean 48CU's (52CU's with 4 disabled). Then there's the matter of picking between 10% greater performance, or 15% greater power efficiency. I assume power efficiency is desirable for a console. So, I'll just assume the same 1950mhz clockspeed:
48*64*2*1.95 = 11.98TF RDNA 1 / 1.5 / 2
Going off of my previous ~160W figure (which I'll double-check!) this would result in:
(160*1.2)*0.85 = 157.44W
There's the possibility of decent architectural improvements too. For an example, I'll just assume a 10% architectural improvement: 11 or 12 TF RDNA 1.5 / 2 GPU's may respectively perform like the equivalent of 12 or 13 TF RDNA 1 parts.
Putting that all in perspective:
- TF for TF, Navi performs between 1.4 and 1.6 times as well as GCN.
- The worst case would result in a next-gen console GPU which performs like the equivalent of a (10.98*1.4 = ) 15.37 TF GCN GPU.
- The best case would result in a next-gen console GPU which performs like the equivalent of a ((11.98*1.6)*1.1 = ) 21.08 TF GCN GPU.
I don't see why any of us should be pessimistic.