Next-Gen iPhone & iPhone Nano Speculation

ToTTenTranz said:
But the needed development effort between a direct shrink and actually changing functional units isn't the same, is it?
There is not such thing as a direct shrink anymore. No matter what, you need to redesign and characterize all your analog stuff: PLLs, SDRAM circuits (much more than just 'I/O pads for the speeds we're talking about) etc.

To go to a smaller process, you'll resynthesize anyway. Might as will make a few important changes along the way.
 
But Vita doesn't have a mechanical drive like the PSP did. Probably a bigger battery.

Could the OLED be more power-efficient than the smaller LCD of the PSP, at least for video playback?
 
To go to a smaller process, you'll resynthesize anyway. Might as will make a few important changes along the way.

I still think you may be underestimating the "might as well make a few important changes" part, but ok.
 
But the needed development effort between a direct shrink and actually changing functional units isn't the same, is it?

It's my understanding that a direct shrink is somewhat easier and cheaper; however if there are advantages for the other alternative it might be worth the additional effort/resources, which shouldn't be all that much if it's more about adding more units here and there.

If the A5 is good enough with +50% clocks, why wouldn't the company prefer to focus its efforts in developing the A6 and A7 for a 2013 release?
I can't know how Apple diverts engineering resources between SoC generations to be honest. It could be one team only or it could be multiple teams assigned to different projects in parallel (whereby the 2nd scenario with their so far yearly execution makes more sense).

Either way what is "good enough" exactly given how fierce competition will be starting this and the next year?
 
ToTTenTranz said:
I still think you may be underestimating the "might as well make a few important changes" part, but ok.
No, we simply have different definitions. ;)

When we redo a chip, 'important changes' are those fixes that don't change anything major architecturally, but that make the life of somebody unnecessary hard. Basically: a bug, one way or the other.

E.g. Add a forgotten interrupt to get rid of some ugly polling loop in SW that saps performance. Increase the size of a boot rom. Add some small feature that's critical to win a specific account. Etc.

They're important, but not hard or risky.
 
But Vita doesn't have a mechanical drive like the PSP did. Probably a bigger battery.

Could the OLED be more power-efficient than the smaller LCD of the PSP, at least for video playback?

The PSP ( Original "Fat" ) has a 1800mAh Battery. The Vita has 2200mah battery. So technically, 20% better battery.

That Mechanical drive was responsible for a large part of the power drain.

OLED is supposed to be more power-efficient then LCD ( Think it was mostly because of black required no power, where as the back light is always on with LCD = the big power drain ), but also do not forget, that the screen is bigger.

Give or take, having these specs with better then original battery life, is not bad.

It's my understanding that a direct shrink is somewhat easier and cheaper; however if there are advantages for the other alternative it might be worth the additional effort/resources, which shouldn't be all that much if it's more about adding more units here and there.

At this moment, the 45nm process is very mature. In other words, there is a low failure rate. Going to a 28nm process, can bring a big risk, if the failure rate is high ( especially with a 120mm sized SOC ).

But, 45nm has reached its limits. If they stick to a Cortex A9, then the only few ways to upgrade its speed are very limited. And can bring in more drainage of power. For instance, going Quad Core on 45nm, with Quad Core GPU, ... you are increasing the power drain a lot ( assuming they stay at the same frequency ).

Then again, going to 28nm can bring big risks, if the production capacity is not there. Imagine releasing the iPad3(or 2S whatever its called ), and they have a problem with the SOC production. This can limit quantity the release for months ( and drive people to the competition ). See in the past, Intel vs AMD. Or Nivida vs ATI.

I can't know how Apple diverts engineering resources between SoC generations to be honest. It could be one team only or it could be multiple teams assigned to different projects in parallel (whereby the 2nd scenario with their so far yearly execution makes more sense).

The bigger question is, what is behind the fact that Apple has taken a ARM license. There is only one other company out there, that makes there own custom designs, and today we knew the effect from that ( Krait benchmarks are nice ).

Given the rate of development, it makes sense for them to have a 2 team method.

2010: Team 1 developed new SOC & releases.
2011: Team 2 releases upgraded to that SOC.
2012: Team 1 developed new SOC & releases.

Problem is, given the fact that the current information for the A5x SOC, seems like a upgrade, not a new design. Its a little out of character if you have a yearly altering role.

Unless we call the A5 as the new SOC. But what makes that the A4 then?

Two new SOC after each other?

Either way what is "good enough" exactly given how fierce competition will be starting this and the next year?

That is what people overlook. Technology is going forward very fast. Sure, Apple can take its sweet time, and release a slightly upgraded CPU/GPU. And it will sell. But ... the jump expected this year in Technology is more, then it was last year. Everybody stayed at the Cortex A9 design.

Now we have Krait, A15, Quad Cores, ... 32/28nm ... Several more powerful GPU's. Apple's software has been the driving factor behind the iPad's / iPhone's. But take in account that Android also has made major strives into fixing its short comings.
 
At this moment, the 45nm process is very mature. In other words, there is a low failure rate. Going to a 28nm process, can bring a big risk, if the failure rate is high ( especially with a 120mm sized SOC ).

But, 45nm has reached its limits. If they stick to a Cortex A9, then the only few ways to upgrade its speed are very limited. And can bring in more drainage of power. For instance, going Quad Core on 45nm, with Quad Core GPU, ... you are increasing the power drain a lot ( assuming they stay at the same frequency ).

Then again, going to 28nm can bring big risks, if the production capacity is not there. Imagine releasing the iPad3(or 2S whatever its called ), and they have a problem with the SOC production. This can limit quantity the release for months ( and drive people to the competition ). See in the past, Intel vs AMD. Or Nivida vs ATI.

Samsung has 32nm in between its 45nm and 28nm process. Just for the record the Samsung Texas Austin foundry is operational for quite some time now.


The bigger question is, what is behind the fact that Apple has taken a ARM license. There is only one other company out there, that makes there own custom designs, and today we knew the effect from that ( Krait benchmarks are nice ).
Well if someone knows for which timeframes Apple has lisenced CPU IP and for which instruction sets from ARM it would be worth gold as a piece of information.

Problem is, given the fact that the current information for the A5x SOC, seems like a upgrade, not a new design. Its a little out of character if you have a yearly altering role.

Unless we call the A5 as the new SOC. But what makes that the A4 then?

Two new SOC after each other?
What was the difference between the iPhone3GS and iPhone4 SoCs?

That is what people overlook. Technology is going forward very fast. Sure, Apple can take its sweet time, and release a slightly upgraded CPU/GPU. And it will sell. But ... the jump expected this year in Technology is more, then it was last year. Everybody stayed at the Cortex A9 design.

Now we have Krait, A15, Quad Cores, ... 32/28nm ... Several more powerful GPU's. Apple's software has been the driving factor behind the iPad's / iPhone's. But take in account that Android also has made major strives into fixing its short comings.
Apple obviously didnt have enough time for A15 and the timeframe for a custom design from them sounds too tight. For how long had Apple's single core A9 SoCs have to stand against dual core A9s exactly? And when A5 arrived was its real advantage (call it marketing or whatever you like) really its dual core A9@1GHz or a few other important factors?

Qualcomm will have another crapload of dual Krait design wins mostly for smartphones this year, but on the other hand don't expect A15 CPUs to come in high quantities this year exactly. After that the concentration goes to the rest of the hw blocks of each SoC and the underlying sw environment.
 
I think more than the SOC designs due this year, it's the prospect of Win 8 tablets.

Also, there is always the possibility of an Android design catching some fire, or maybe the second revision of Kindle Fire becomes really compelling.
 
As Ailuros implied, nothing is out of character with Apple's update cycle...

A1 (iPhone 2G): baseline
A2 (iPod touch 2nd gen): improved clocks/bus/bandwidth
A3 (iPhone 3GS): new CPU and GPU cores
A4 (iPad): improved clocks/bus/bandwidth
A5 (iPad 2): new CPU and GPU cores
next SoC (iPad 3): improvements but same type of CPU and GPU cores
 
What is the likelyhood of Apple adapting tick-tock strategy in their SOC designs?

2011 tick : A5 -40 nm- (new generation ARM-A9)
2012 tock: A5X -28 nm- (new process, minimal architectural enhancements, increase core count)
2013 tick: A6 -28 nm- (new generation ARM-A15)
2014 tock: A6X -20 nm- (new process, minimal architectural enhancements, increase core count)
 
What is the likelyhood of Apple adapting tick-tock strategy in their SOC designs?

2011 tick : A5 -40 nm- (new generation ARM-A9)
2012 tock: A5X -28 nm- (new process, minimal architectural enhancements, increase core count)
2013 tick: A6 -28 nm- (new generation ARM-A15)
2014 tock: A6X -20 nm- (new process, minimal architectural enhancements, increase core count)

They've been doing tick-tock since the first iPhone. Every other and only every other update in Lazy8s' list corresponds with a process shrink; the nodes were 90nm, 65nm, 65nm, 45nm, 45nm (A5 isn't 40nm).

That of course doesn't necessarily mean they can maintain a yearly cadence while doing so.
 
yesterday and today, many of IMG's high-end public licensees announced dual core 544MP2 @500MHZ+(Intel,TI and now todat ST).

It becomes highly interesting therefore to note that in an article yesterday in electronista, IMG said:-

"With considerably closer time frames in mind, Imagination also made clear that there would be more customers for its current most advanced mobile graphics, the quad-core PowerVR SGX543MP4, in the near future"

Who needs 4 cores, and is not aiming towards Dx compliance, and in a "near future" timeline

To me the various news today and yesterday points to Apple's next gen Soc having SGX543MP4.
 
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yesterday and today, many of IMG's high-end public licensees announced dual core 544MP2 @500MHZ+(Intel,TI and now todat ST).

It becomes highly interesting therefore to note that in an article yesterday in electronista, IMG said:-

"With considerably closer time frames in mind, Imagination also made clear that there would be more customers for its current most advanced mobile graphics, the quad-core PowerVR SGX543MP4, in the near future"

Who needs 4 cores, and is not aiming towards Dx compliance, and in a "near future" timeline

To me the various news today and yesterday points to Apple's next gen Soc having SGX543MP4.

Good point. It's just a question of whether we're looking at an "A5X" or an "A6". It would seem 543MP4 is part of either of them, in any case.
 
http://www.macrumors.com/2012/02/28/apple-issues-invitations-for-ipad-3-media-event-on-march-7/

Apple has officially given invitations for a launch event on March 7. The tagline specifically mentions "see" and "touch" likely indicating a new AppleTV and iPad 3. Admittedly "see" might just refer to the Retina Display.

Apple's iOS sales breakdown last quarter was: 37 million iPhones (60%), 15.4 million iPads (25%), 8.2 million iPod Touches (13%), and 1.4 million Apple TVs (2%) totaling 62 million iOS device sales. Does Apple have enough volumes to produce 2 different custom SoCs? Assuming the A5X is a straight 32nm die shrink of the A5 with higher clocks and the A6 is a 32nm quad Cortex A9/SGX543MP4, the likely combinations seem to be A6 for iPad 3 and AppleTV 2 (positioning AppleTV as a gaming console) with A5X for iPhone 5 and iPod Touch 5 or A6 for iPad 3 and iPhone 5 and A5X for AppleTV 2 (if they intend to stick to a media hub focus) and iPod Touch 5.
 
The lack of home button also indicates the bezel will have capacitive buttons.

And so Apple will try to pass capacitive buttons in the bezel as the latest invention in the century.
 
The lack of home button also indicates the bezel will have capacitive buttons.

And so Apple will try to pass capacitive buttons in the bezel as the latest invention in the century.
I believe front panel leaks, if they are to be believed, indicate no changes. The iPad 3 in the image is probably in landscape orientation.
 
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