News & Rumors: Xbox One (codename Durango)

[expletive]

But that points to serious issues and a need for better marketing. If no-one is wanting XB1 in the dropped countries, how is delaying going to help that situation? If the executives are looking at preorder numbers and thinking, "no-one in those countries really wants this thing - let's just sell where we're wanted," that doesn't bode well for long term investment in the platform in other territories. The correct response should be more like, "preorders are low in these countries. Let's put on some good marketing, some regional specific interest, and get the interest up!"

That's why I don't think it's preorder number related. Staying out of those territories for longer is counterproductive to increasing brand strength and sales.

Not that serious. Lukewarm preorder interest in a region that tends to favor Sony isn't the end of the world. It could even be attributed to all the bad press they've earned since May, and they might feel that they'll be much better positioned to launch with momentum once people see the OS, software, kinect, in action than they could with any marketing budget prior to launch.

Maintaining market dominance in NA is likely a more critical component to the XBO strategy than marginal marketshare increases in these countries. If MS doesn't have NA, then what do they have really? The already pro-Sony EU market seems energized for the PS4 as it stands so its important that MS doesn't lose ground in their core region or they'll be playing a distant second fiddle globally.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Not that serious. Lukewarm preorder interest in a region that tends to favor Sony isn't the end of the world. It could even be attributed to all the bad press they've earned since May, and they might feel that they'll be much better positioned to launch with momentum once people see the OS, software, kinect, in action than they could with any marketing budget prior to launch.

What does MS gain by delaying launching in those lukewarm territories? How does delaying improve their chances in those territories?

 

[Bagel seed]

Anyone that's played older CIVs knows that concentrating all their troops into a Stack of Doom can achieve great success.

 

[dobwal]

What does MS gain by delaying launching in those lukewarm territories? How does delaying improve their chances in those territories?

Depends.

If you were launching a product and you had data that stipulated where most of your demand was located, how would you distribute your product especially knowing you didn't have enough supply to accommodate overall demand?

You don't even need Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and Switzerland to show a lukewarm reception. All that has to happens is that Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and New Zealand shows a level of demand that easily outstrips supply.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

And?

The early launch in Europe was the only way for the 360 to become relevant in Europe and that's what they achieved even if in the end they didn't sold the most units, thus their momentum wasn't overcame. That momentum carried them far and is still carrying them. Without that momentum they'd most likely be pretty much non existant in Europe today imo. This time they won't have that luxury and we'll have to see how they'll do, I'm not expecting much.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If you were launching a product and you had data that stipulated where most of your demand was located, how would you distribute your product especially knowing you didn't have enough supply to accommodate overall demand?

That doesn't really answer the question of how choosing to delay in a territory is better than not. If you can't satisfy global demand, you need to chose some people to be left out. Why choose all the Netherlands, say, over that many US customers?

Putting it another way, if there's interest in 10 million XB1's in the US, why shouldn't MS just ship all the consoles they can make to the US until that market has been saturated, and then aim elsewhere? It's not just about selling x number of consoles; it's also about having a worldwide presence, generating buzz and momentum, and then following that through with ongoing supply.

 

[dobwal]

The early launch in Europe was the only way for the 360 to become relevant in Europe and that's what they achieved even if in the end they didn't sold the most units, thus their momentum wasn't overcame. That momentum carried them far and is still carrying them. Without that momentum they'd most likely be pretty much non existant in Europe today imo. This time they won't have that luxury and we'll have to see how they'll do, I'm not expecting much.

Prior to the 360 the PS2 to Xbox ratio was like 5:1 to 6:1. The 360 userbase is much larger so this gen MS is fighting on better footing.

We not talking about shelving the whole of europe for a subsequent launch, we talking about the smaller markets. I rather have ample supply in the biggest markets versus trying to spread that supply around to serve all markets.

World wide launches make sense when you have ample supply. But launch consoles are never in ample supply. The 360 world wide launch was more of a marketing stunt that was pretty wasteful. MS ended marketing a device that relatively few could buy and MS spent the first few months fulfilling preorders to those who were unaffected by marketing dollars spent over the holidays because those customers were already on the hook.

 

[temesgen]

That doesn't really answer the question of how choosing to delay in a territory is better than not. If you can't satisfy global demand, you need to chose some people to be left out. Why choose all the Netherlands, say, over that many US customers?

Putting it another way, if there's interest in 10 million XB1's in the US, why shouldn't MS just ship all the consoles they can make to the US until that market has been saturated, and then aim elsewhere? It's not just about selling x number of consoles; it's also about having a worldwide presence, generating buzz and momentum, and then following that through with ongoing supply.

I agree with this, there is a multi-player multiplier affect that comes into play. If my friend owns XB1, I'll XB1 so we can play online together. The hardcore gamer who buys first can potentially impact the purchasing decision of 1 to x number of friends. Of course it would be hard to quantify this for marketing purposes but we all can speak of examples of this behavior.

 

[Jay]

Another way of thinking about it is.
If we hadn't been told what the regions were originally, would anyone be surprised that their not rolling out to every region day one?
Even the initial set of regions wasn't everywhere, they made decisions on who to roll it out to, and in what order. The same way Sony is.

Still the same decision process but now just based on the original first tier regions.

 

[Bagel seed]

That doesn't really answer the question of how choosing to delay in a territory is better than not. If you can't satisfy global demand, you need to chose some people to be left out. Why choose all the Netherlands, say, over that many US customers?

You're forgetting that it's a battle against another competitor. Why would any army general cede territory and reposition their troops elsewhere?

The distinction for MS is that they have no choice but to do this from the get go.

 

[dobwal]

That doesn't really answer the question of how choosing to delay in a territory is better than not. If you can't satisfy global demand, you need to chose some people to be left out. Why choose all the Netherlands, say, over that many US customers?

Putting it another way, if there's interest in 10 million XB1's in the US, why shouldn't MS just ship all the consoles they can make to the US until that market has been saturated, and then aim elsewhere? It's not just about selling x number of consoles; it's also about having a worldwide presence, generating buzz and momentum, and then following that through with ongoing supply.

Thats how console releases were primarily done. Service japan and then with staggered launches serve other territories as your production capabilities grew.

I rather pour 5 million consoles into one market with 10 million interest consumers than pour 5 million consoles into the world wide market with 20-30 million interested consumers. You are doing nothing but creating frustration on a greater level.

Not only can you accommodate half of the one market it allows you resupply at a greater rate. Thereby accommodating the other half that couldn't get a launch console while doing it in a more efficient manner.

Staggered launches also allows later revisions to initially serve new markets so that some of bugs that may have infested the initial product don't hamper other markets.

What do you thinks kills enthusiasm more waiting 6 months for a product to launch in your territory or waiting 6 months after launch because of lack of supplies. At least a manufacturer can hit you with a full on marketing campaign to get you excited by an impending and immediate launch.

How can you build momentum for a product when marketing or word of mouth only leads to empty shelves? Where's the buzz in that?

There is no point in trying to service everyone at one time, if you are going to do a poor job at it.

 

[Jay]

The hardcore gamer who buys first can potentially impact the purchasing decision of 1 to x number of friends.

Yep, this is one of the reasons why being first was always seen as important.

But this time the releases are so close, that they are pretty much releasing at the same time.
I doubt there will be enough produced of PS4 or XB1 to create the critical mass. Not enough units in each region, to begin with.

 

[3dilettante]

Wasn't the list of regions released back when the XBox One was still region-locked?

The list that was announced then doesn't mean quite the same thing as it does now, and it would have been more important that people be aware of what nations the device would actually work in.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You're forgetting that it's a battle against another competitor.

I'm not forgetting that. I've already mentioned that, and it seems one of the more plausible explanations to me. My immediate arguments were against those suggesting low preorder interest in 2nd tier countries is reason not to release there.

 

[Gubbi]

It shouldn't be illegal - there are many examples of where a prepayment can be withheld in a cancellation. You'd just have to be aware that the customer is properly informed, and you'd have to consider the impact on your business if you have a caveat like this on preorders. I have no idea if any stores actually do operate with a non-refundable deposit on preorders or not.

In Denmark if you use a direct debit card (which is what *everybody* uses), shops can't draw (called capture) the reserved money until they ship the box out the door.

(Well, they can, but they'd be committing fraud)

Cheers

 

[Bagel seed]

I'm not forgetting that. I've already mentioned that, and it seems one of the more plausible explanations to me. My immediate arguments were against those suggesting low preorder interest in 2nd tier countries is reason not to release there.

Your q was, why should they skip Netherlands and favor USA instead of vice versa. Well, because it's a critical battleground Spreading your forces thin might not be a wise strategy.

As for low preorders in one region being a good idea to pull out of there, I doubt that was much of a factor, or the deciding one.

 

[bkilian]

You're forgetting that it's a battle against another competitor. Why would any army general cede territory and reposition their troops elsewhere?

The distinction for MS is that they have no choice but to do this from the get go.

Cede what territory? I have not been able to find a list of PS4 launch territories anywhere. The only word I've seen is "PS4 will launch in at least one country in 2013" and "PlayStation 4 (PS4), which is scheduled to be available during the 2013 holiday season in the US and Europe". For all we know it'll launch US and UK only, or only 5 or 8 countries.

We don't know. So why are we so sure the PS4 will have a territory advantage at launch?

I'm assuming Sony will announce european launch countries at Gamescom, so maybe we'll have something to talk about then. Until then, talk of who will have first-mover advantage in which territory is pure speculation.

 

[Bagel seed]

Cede what territory? I have not been able to find a list of PS4 launch territories anywhere. The only word I've seen is "PS4 will launch in at least one country in 2013" and "PlayStation 4 (PS4), which is scheduled to be available during the 2013 holiday season in the US and Europe". For all we know it'll launch US and UK only, or only 5 or 8 countries.

We don't know. So why are we so sure the PS4 will have a territory advantage at launch?

I'm assuming Sony will announce european launch countries at Gamescom, so maybe we'll have something to talk about then. Until then, talk of who will have first-mover advantage in which territory is pure speculation.

Ceding only in regards to my army general analogy as a tactical strategy. But no, obviously MS is not giving up any territory now and forever as they'll just launch in said places at a later date.

But if you're MS or Sony, and assuming they don't know each others complete launch territory list, they're both weighing the pros and cons of potentially 'ceding' certain territories and leaving them wide open to their competitor for the taking, even if only for few months.

 

[temesgen]

Yep, this is one of the reasons why being first was always seen as important.

But this time the releases are so close, that they are pretty much releasing at the same time.
I doubt there will be enough produced of PS4 or XB1 to create the critical mass. Not enough units in each region, to begin with.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I doubt we'll ever be able to model anything but anecdotally we know if we hear people saying I bought XB1 bc my friend has it or bc I owned a 360... It could potentially have a meaningful impact on the choices consumers make which in part is why Sony really should have doubled down on free MP IMO.

 

[Averagejoe]

Cede what territory? I have not been able to find a list of PS4 launch territories anywhere. The only word I've seen is "PS4 will launch in at least one country in 2013" and "PlayStation 4 (PS4), which is scheduled to be available during the 2013 holiday season in the US and Europe". For all we know it'll launch US and UK only, or only 5 or 8 countries.

We don't know. So why are we so sure the PS4 will have a territory advantage at launch?

I'm assuming Sony will announce european launch countries at Gamescom, so maybe we'll have something to talk about then. Until then, talk of who will have first-mover advantage in which territory is pure speculation.

Amazon is selling PS4 for all territories in EU if i am not mistaken,not only UK,but Germany,spain,France and others.

But i think MS strategy is try to protect the xbox strong market by having more units,as it is it has been say that they have a shortage of units and it appears to be the case.

Sites like Amazon US have the PS4 ahead of the xbox one in pre-orders,so has it Amazon UK.