News & Rumors: Xbox One (codename Durango)

[Arwin]

In the Netherlands it is very likely that we would actually prefer to talk to our box in English. But whatever. It will be very interesting to see if Sony does manage to launch in The Netherlands. Sony won there, but the race was relatively close, with younger people buying the 360. If Sony manages to launch in time and keeps its pricing advantage, it will take a small miracle for Microsoft to gain any reasonable marketshare vs Sony.

IF Sony does manage to launch in the Netherlands, that is. Vita showed some promise in that respect, but first see, then believe. Pre-order promotion have been pretty serious in Norway, by the way, where I was on holiday, with big promotions and large boxes that looked like real boxes - so that's going to hurt Microsoft a lot right now, and it wasn't a well-timed decision, meaning something or someone probably fucked up.

 

[Miksu]

If we only talk about Finland, I don't think the delay is because of localization. Xbox 360 isn't localized to Finnish and none of Microsoft's audio recognization systems support Finnish. And I don't buy the cloud as the reason either. We don't have our own MS datacenter (afaik) but very few countries have. In Europe traffic to Microsoft sites is either directed to Netherlands or to UK. There maybe some CDN services in Sweden but that's it.

The most likely reason is that there's just too few units to sell.

But I don't think anything prevents us from ordering XboxOne from Germany or from UK. Finland wasn't part of the first phase with Windows Phone either so we all already have Microsoft Accounts registered to UK...

 

[SedentaryJourney]

@Miksu voice recognition is a large part of the UI this time around, so maybe they think it's better to launch later in some regions instead of shipping without it.

Personally, I disagree with the decision if that's the reason for the delay. You can still push the x guide button to turn on the console and navigate the UI with the controller/kinect perfectly fine, so it's not like voice navigation is critical as opposed to just nice to have. Same goes for any games that use voice.

 

[Cranky]

Low pre-orders + spreading too thin means bad production numbers. I suspect we will hear more about low supply soon.

This doesn't make sense. 1 option no-one seems to be considering is that pre-orders are strong enough in the supported countries that MS wants to reallocate units to where it will do the most good, i.e. countries that actually matter. OF course that doesn't fit the narrative so ....

 

[Jay]

Personally, I disagree with the decision if that's the reason for the delay. You can still push the x guide button to turn on the console and navigate the UI with the controller/kinect perfectly fine, so it's not like voice navigation is critical as opposed to just nice to have. Same goes for any games that use voice.

The trouble with what you would prefer is the negative press would be so much more worse than what their getting for not releasing there yet.
All the reports of faulty units, it not working very well.
One of its biggest selling points and it's crap, etc. And that's from the people that know it's not localized yet

So instead they redirect those units to localized regions and have more stock available, and not a few thousands here and there.

 

[Xbat]

I think cboat was right and there is yield issue

 

[Arwin]

I think cboat was right and there is yield issue

Would be my expectation too ...

 

[Jay]

I think cboat was right and there is yield issue

The difference with the way its put is:
Yield issues = problems with producing chips.
Localisation = releasing in a region could impact on the quality of the experience, but does not rule out lower yields than expected and therefore get more units to the regions where its fully localised.

Yield issues, shortages in components, starting late producing number of units required, all possible, but doesn't mean localisation isn't an issue and number of units available can be relieved somewhat by releasing in less regions, as always has been the case for console releases.

 

[Nesh]

Would be my expectation too ...

Well in UAE XB1 is expected to be released next year so they arent taking pre-orders yet. They are taking pre-orders for PS4 though because they are expecting to be released this year. So that could be an indication that they may have production issues

 

[Rangers]

Well in UAE XB1 is expected to be released next year so they arent taking pre-orders yet. They are taking pre-orders for PS4 though because they are expecting to be released this year. So that could be an indication that they may have production issues

Or it could be Kinect localization issues?

AFAIK XB1 day one preorders are still available a lot of places, such as the Microsoft store...

Also the recent GPU upclock makes me skeptical.

All in all it smacks me of a he said she said situation, the only cure will be sales and shipments figures. I'm already anticipating the November NPD's.

And I'm already looking ahead and figuring sony will be combining PS3 and PS4, (like they do PSP and Vita and PS2+PS3) so we may not even know how many PS4 shipped in it's 1st Q from Sony.

 

[Grall]

Localization is a bullshit excuse, it's not as if MS suddenly, at the last minute, noticed that oops - there's this plethora of non-english languages in europe! We did not expect this!

Of course it's because there just aren't enough units to sell. Christmas is THE critical selling period of the year, like MS would just voluntarily give that up if they had a choice?! Don't make me laugh...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

This doesn't make sense. 1 option no-one seems to be considering is that pre-orders are strong enough in the supported countries that MS wants to reallocate units to where it will do the most good, i.e. countries that actually matter.

If no-one is preordering in the second tier countries, MS have serious marketing issues. They can't survive on just 13 countries. Furthermore, if you have strong preorders in one country, you have 'secured' that custom already, somewhat. MS can afford to let some thousands of Americans wait a few extra months in order to supply the Scandinavians, just as much as they can afford to let the Scandinavians wait as they honour the US market preorders. What you suggest only makes sense to me if preorders in the 2nd tier markets are low as to make shipping costs proportionally high, and Ms would rather wait until there's more interest. Or something. But that returns to my first point - if MS is only seeing interest prior to launch from 13 countries, they're not starting well. I'm more inclined to believe there's stronger world-wide interest and this is a technical/QoS issue rather than preorders aren't strong enough to justify sales to those countries.

 

[Scott_Arm]

If no-one is preordering in the second tier countries, MS have serious marketing issues. They can't survive on just 13 countries. Furthermore, if you have strong preorders in one country, you have 'secured' that custom already, somewhat. MS can afford to let some thousands of Americans wait a few extra months in order to supply the Scandinavians, just as much as they can afford to let the Scandinavians wait as they honour the US market preorders. What you suggest only makes sense to me if preorders in the 2nd tier markets are low as to make shipping costs proportionally high, and Ms would rather wait until there's more interest. Or something. But that returns to my first point - if MS is only seeing interest prior to launch from 13 countries, they're not starting well. I'm more inclined to believe there's stronger world-wide interest and this is a technical/QoS issue rather than preorders aren't strong enough to justify sales to those countries.

Considering the USA alone is something like 60% of the overall gaming market, and I imagine the total is skewed heavily towards a few other countries as well, you could probably survive pretty easily on 13 countries as long as you sold well there.

 

[Rangers]

Localization is a bullshit excuse, it's not as if MS suddenly, at the last minute, noticed that oops - there's this plethora of non-english languages in europe! We did not expect this!

Yeah because nothing can take longer than initially expected

Of course it's because there just aren't enough units to sell. Christmas is THE critical selling period of the year, like MS would just voluntarily give that up if they had a choice?! Don't make me laugh...

I really dont think they're giving up that much. Just if you do the population math on the Tier 1 vs Tier 2 countries, it's like 1 Billion in tier 1 vs 200m in tier 2. And out of those 200m in tier 2, 143m of them are Russia, which while likely growing, is not a very big console market relative to it's population at all.

In West EU 329m are now first wave and 62m are now frozen out into tier 2. So they have reduced to covering 84% of what they were prior in West EU. It's just not a crippling blow, and really not a big deal.

In fact if anything the fact they are probably covering 90% of the units they were prior makes me doubt yield issues even more. Because 10% fewer consoles to spread around isn't a huge blip, but localizing a dozen more tiny countries is likely a big effort.

I'm not saying yield issues aren't a possibility, hell I think all console launches have them dont they? At least all launch consoles have limited supply. It's all a matter of degree I guess.

But i wonder where the "you cant upgrade the RAM cause it would be investor fraud per SEC regulations" crowd is when it comes to MS lying about why they cant release in some markets this year? Pretty sure that would be actual real fraud in contrast to the former.

Considering the USA alone is something like 60% of the overall gaming market, and I imagine the total is skewed heavily towards a few other countries as well, you could probably survive pretty easily on 13 countries as long as you sold well there.

Yup. Probably everything outside those 13 markets is 20% of 360 sales absolute tops, more likely much much less than that. I bet it could be less than 5%. Especially given that Xbox seems weighted towards a few countries so strongly. Probably just France, UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, Canada, USA, and Australia capture the huge lions share of Xbox sales. And it'd look mostly the same for Playstation, except add Japan.

"Emerging" markets like Mexico, Russia, and Brazil are something you want to pursue for sure, but they aren't a major factor just yet.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Considering the USA alone is something like 60% of the overall gaming market, and I imagine the total is skewed heavily towards a few other countries as well, you could probably survive pretty easily on 13 countries as long as you sold well there.

If you don't want to be a global brand, sure. MS could get away with just serving NA, so why bother anywhere else? MS don't want to be a marginalised brand. If they don't get a foothold in other markets while PS4 is gaining interest, PS4 will have all the momentum and it'll be all the harder to win those countries over, as friend's start buying the same console their PS4 owning friends bought. MS would have to at least lay on a heavy marketing campaign to get everyone to wait and see.

I'd also like to see the numbers were the US is 60 of the gaming market. A few years back, the EU was the largest (or second) gaming market. There wasn't much between NA, EU and Asia in those figures. Quick Googling says you're completely off with that.

 

[dobwal]

MS could be simply loading launch units up for its strongest markets. About half of the launch list are english speaking countries where the 360 has done relatively well. The other half consists of major european markets and other markets where they have a strong presence. Brazil is a manufacturing base for MS and Mexico has a strong 360 following (VW sold a 360 edition of the Beetle in Mexico).

We should consider that this is the first time MS has ever gone head to head with Sony and will launch during the same time period. Whatever, advantage MS has with its OS and API, Sony has just as much or more when it comes to being a CE manufacturer. Logistically, it should probably run circles around MS when it comes to pulling off a launch. And all signs point to Sony loading up for one of the strongest launch ever, in terms of availability.

It might make sense for MS to devote its entire launch inventory into its most important markets than trying to include a host of smaller markets at launch. Major yield issues leading to a smaller allocation of launch inventory is hardly going to be overcome by leaving out the countries dropped in the first wave. Dropping most europe and going with USA, Canada, UK, Australia/NZ and maybe Mexico would have made more sense if there were major issues with supply.

The 13 countries still represent a larger than typical launch as the playstation has never been available to so many gamers during the first wave. If I were MS I would be more interested in limiting the supply gap in the biggest markets versus trying to accommodate a bunch of smaller markets who are already used to being served by the second and third wave of a console launch.

 

[Jay]

I think that I may see it differently than a lot of people.
I don't see localisation as being better/nicer reason than yield issues.
It still means not being able to launch in as many regions as they would like.

They could've said due to sourcing of components we are unable to fulfil the demand we have, and we don't want to do a paper launch in some regions.

Localisation costs money, time and resources to do. In fact it could even do with the DRM 180, and moving resources of localisation to do it (eg testers). It doesn't make them look any better.

Yield costs money and time (with respins).
Unless people believe that there is something fundamentally wrong with the chips, then I don't see why localisation is somehow so much better for MS to use that as a lie?

There was probably going to be limited availability anyway.
We wont know how much until the actual figures come out, and that is when we'll know just how many they could actually produce.
Only last week people was discussing if their leaving it late too produce the quantity required, which didn't directly mean yield issues.

 

[DrJay24]

Yield costs money and time (with respins).
Unless people believe that there is something fundamentally wrong with the chips, then I don't see why localisation is somehow so much better for MS to use that as a lie?

In May they said 21 regions, then insiders were talking about yield issues with the ESRAM, now it is 13 regions. It is just logic I guess. It certainly is just as believable as MS making a commitment and then suddenly not having the resources to do localization.

Ultimately it doesn't matter, but it suggest despite MS recently controlling their message better, they are still being reactionary (DRM, headset, 53Mhz,etc.) or just behind schedule, neither of which instills confidence in the management.

 

[Scott_Arm]

If you don't want to be a global brand, sure. MS could get away with just serving NA, so why bother anywhere else? MS don't want to be a marginalised brand. If they don't get a foothold in other markets while PS4 is gaining interest, PS4 will have all the momentum and it'll be all the harder to win those countries over, as friend's start buying the same console their PS4 owning friends bought. MS would have to at least lay on a heavy marketing campaign to get everyone to wait and see.

I'd also like to see the numbers were the US is 60 of the gaming market. A few years back, the EU was the largest (or second) gaming market. There wasn't much between NA, EU and Asia in those figures. Quick Googling says you're completely off with that.

I read it just the other day. Can't remember the source. Something like 60% of game revenues come from the USA. It could be very wrong. I don't know.

 

[baten]

Localisation excuse is bull.... You could offer english support and then, after a while, the local language.
In my coutry, Romania, there is no local support for either PS Store or MS whatever...
So this is the reason I have preordered from UK. As many others, I suppose...