Microsoft XBOX (XBox One X / Project Scorpio) - Prerelease News and Rumours

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by MrFox, Mar 27, 2017.

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  1. mpg1

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    $100 is a huge range. Not sure why it has to be either $399 or $499...
     
  2. Jay

    Jay
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    maybe a special upgrade edition, for the x1 hardcore who has an elite controller, external hdd already.
    so it having a controller, game bundled, or even big hdd is all pretty redundant for them. So none of it, with 500GB hdd.
    sounds crazy, maybe only through their store.

    $50-70 more you get controller and 1Tb drive, and bundled game.
     
  3. goonergaz

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    You think MS can come in at the same price as Pro? Really?
     
  4. Cyan

    Cyan orange
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    this article mentions that the console will be streaming and recording at 4K 60 fps contrary to 720p 30 fps of the Xbox One.

    http://www.tweaktown.com/news/56663/project-scorpio-game-dvr-records-native-4k-60fps/index.html

    there must be a reason for that, even if games run at normal settings instead of ultra. Hopefully a new Ninja Gaiden at 60fps will be amongst the games running on it.
     
  5. mpg1

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    Well of course there will be games running at 60fps...just not most.
     
  6. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    To be fair to the idea, we can make some
    Assumptions about the clientele for these types of devices ie. Higher attach rate and what not; You're certainly not buying Scorpio for just its exclusives. And you're certainly not buying it as UHD player.
    If I were Phil looking for new customers, knowing my exclusives are not competing well, I would want players to buy all their 3P on Xbox, and their subscriptions (live and game pass). So whatever price that will make that happen I guess.

    Upgraders don't offer that much more. They've already bought their library of games.
     
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  7. function

    function None functional
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    Wrong thread
    I was talking about 449 vs 399, as the post I quoted stated. I don't think it will come in at 499. I don't think it needs to.

    I agree there is some potential value in a "hardcore" online only version of Scorpio, with no controller or HDMI cables, but I don't think 500GB is likely.

    I think another 15 months will mean cost of 7 gHz GDDR5, 1TB HDDs and any given area of 16nm FF will have dropped. Actually, most people expect this.

    PS4Pro will likely be able to go for cheaper at that point, but it's always a mistake to assume that the cost of things like silicon on a given process, RAM, HDD capacity etc won't change over time.

    History has shown us that the cost of things like these does indeed change over time, though you are obviously free to question whether this is possible going forwards.
     
    #67 function, Mar 30, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2017
  8. Jay

    Jay
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    Their probably the group that pre order and buy games first week when there full price.
     
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  9. Pixel

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    Sure, though it depends how hungry they are. Last generation both companies were initially taking $200+ in losses at launch. Everyone knows Sony did, but even Microsoft was taking a $200 loss in the 1st year or so of Xbox 360. Through multiple years of 3rd party royalties, Gold membership, and some 1st party title purchases they can recoup that loss and make some margins, though those margins will be slimmer, so it comes down to how much Microsoft is willing to fight to win over the valuble core gamers who this product would appeal towards.

    However I don't think this will happen. I think they are pricing this higher than PS4 Pro, since they keep reiterating its a premium product and will have a pricetag in line with that.
     
    #69 Pixel, Mar 30, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2017
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  10. goonergaz

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    But this isn't a new gen, it's a premium alternative and due to the tech inside it must cost more than Pro to produce (and I seem to recall there was surprise at how 'cheap' Pro was)...as such I'd be really surprised even though I fully expect Pro to drop $50.

    I guess we'll find out soon enough, I'm expecting at least $450.
     
  11. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Here's the kicker: what makes you believe that you're being sold rock bottom prices on the Pro :)

    They are the market leaders. They have a premium product. They have no competition yet, what incentive does Sony have to make Pro sell at cost ?

    Here's where I see things. Even if Scorpio lands with the same price as 4Pro they won't budge their price. Beating Scorpio isn't an exercise in price reduction, price reduction would push their PS4 price point lower which they don't want or need. edit: you also get into a meta discussion about image and price. Sony has rode this generation so far as being the best hardware to play on, price dropping your premium device as soon as a competitor comes into play is effectively admiting defeat on the performance category. If you will recall, MS was not very quick to drop their prices and attempted a massive amount of spin to make it appear as though it could keep up with PS4. If people had a hard time seeing the performance delta there, it will be harder at the higher resolutions. No reason to give up your king of graphics seat because some folks are throwing around numbers like 6TF!

    What Sony will continue to do or has been planning to do for a year now is to lock up as much 3rd party exclusive content as possible. 3P exclusive content is a direct counter to Scorpio's performance delta.

    Trust me when I say this, that Destiny 1 exclusive content for 2 year is hurting XBO players all over. Add Destiny 2 exclusive content for another full year- Destiny players are at a tipping point. They've experienced it once, they may not be interested in experiencing it again. Nothing sounds like a shoddy deal than paying the same and getting less for a full year. Most games are completed in 8-16 hours. Lol.

    should Sony be successful in holding the keys to 3P titles (RDR2 Battlefront2, Destiny 2...) it may force MS to rely on its 1P titles which are having issues at the moment. Not to say they couldn't build another amazing Halo, Gears, Forza experience, but they haven't this generation yet.

    MS can't rely on 3P exclusive content, it doesn't sell their systems. Their money is better invested in platform development and 1P investments.

    That's pretty much where I see things. And MS would be more willing to cut their profits off
    Scorpio because they need to get back into this game. I expect a price point very close to $399
     
    #71 iroboto, Mar 30, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2017
  12. goonergaz

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    I suppose I just see that (as I said before) the general consensus was that Pro was a good price (even with, like you said, no competition) - so they could have gone "you know what - let's try $50/100 more to test the water" but they didn't, it was considered a good price for a console that shared a lot in common with the PS4. Scorpio OTOH is packing brand new hardware, and more RAM - so by default will cost more than Pro to produce therefore unless MS want to lose a lot of money (mid gen remember) then it will be more than Pro.

    And another thing is, pretty much everyone bar hardcore fans know that power is not key - even MS have managed (to an extent) steady the XBO ship, the question is, if they wanted to throw money at the problem why not throw it at the software which is clearly lacking on the format?

    Anyway, that's my 2p - I totally get why they might want to lose money to get some marketshare back, but with Sony already owning this gen it seems like it'd be trying to lock the gate after the horse has bolted. Better to offer a premium option now for their hardcore fans who will pay whatever MS want and blow a wad next gen (IMHO).
     
  13. Jay

    Jay
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    will Scorpio bom be more expensive, probably. How much by, who knows.
    maybe the amount of customization in the 4pro apu made it cost a lot more. How much is an extra 4gb gddr5 if that's what it has?
    4pro has arm, 1gb ddr3 also i believe, which i don't expect Scorpio to have, etc.

    you also talk about losing gen, next gen etc. The trouble with that train of thought is that ms may not be thinking like that at all, which makes your reasoning invalid for their goals. What if for them this gen lasts 15+ years, have they already lost then?
    is it even a zero sum game, especially where it's viewed in winning and losing when they've possibly changed approach
     
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  14. eastmen

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    ps4 pro has been on sale already under the $399.99 price in the states . Also there is a year of improvements over the course of the year. I am sure the 14/16nm tech has improved where yields will be much better. Ram prices have also come down while speeds have gone up and so on and so forth. We will have to wait and see what MS does with scorpio and what if anything sony does in response. What the systems actually cost MS and Sony doesn't matter to us as a consumer. MS may decide it wants to price match the pro even taking a loss to do so or they might go and make something that can be considered a real generational leap over the current systems and charge a premium.

    Hopefully we don't have to wait much longer
     
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  15. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    Guessing wildly...

    12GB GRDDR5 +$20.
    UHD drive and license +$15
    Beefier power supply, heatsink, and fan +$10
    (rumor) 4K HDMI input, tranceivers, recording chip, +$5
    Beefier SoC on 16nm +$50

    Maybe it will be a smaller difference. 14/16nm will be more and more mature, and while ODD traditionally hits rock bottom around $20, right now there's a premium for UHD capable drives if we look at the XB1S BOM. I don't expect it will stay like this for long.

    The difference will always be there, but it will definitely shrink over time.
     
  16. eastmen

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    My wild guess

    16GB of GRDDR +$20
    No optical drive - $30
    Split CPU / GPU +75

    That's my thinking
     
  17. iroboto

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    I agree we were surprised by the price. But the shock at the sticker price might be our ignorance in understanding the economics of this particular model.

    Consider this possibility:
    RAM, Sony has always been obtaining GDDR5 RAM all this time. But to sell as many consoles as possible Sony reduces the performance spec to increase yield. But if you decided to check that RAM for actual performance, you'd probably find that many of the PS4s were equipped with RAM that could run at 4Pro speeds. The only difference between then and now, is that they're checking which ones are good enough to go into 4Pro and those that aren't go into PS4.

    Silicon price will barely change.

    Drive didn't change, the box is only modified. Controllers and OS and all other R&D costs to create the PS4 have been covered already. No additional PSN development costs. And no additional software development costs. Other than some legal fees, all the new costs appear to be mainly associated with the BOM of the hardware. Price increase is very minimal compared to what they invested to make PS4 even though hardware is much improved.

    What if you are paying a $50-$100 premium for 4Pro, and you just don't know it.
    Agreed, I'm expecting this to be the case.
    Cost more to build for sure; the switch away from ESRAM, any compatibility R&D, hardware differences, OS changes. Retail price is a related but different topic.

    Making hardware and platform changes are relatively more straightforward and have direct impacts to your entire customer base.
    Throwing money at software, is much like throwing money at any Artist and asking them to produce you a Picasso. It's just not guaranteed. And a lot of care is taken in first party funding.
    Sony is great at it sure, but you don't see how many ideas Sony has outright rejected either. They just don't fund everything and see what sticks.

    MS is done with generations right ;) So this may not apply.
     
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  18. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    https://technology.ihs.com/582313/i...n?hootPostID=696c493d1b964a7a6a0188df11469361
    We essentially saw the cost of BR drives go from $30 to $18 from 2013 to 2016. The UHD drive will probably have a similar progression. A second SKU is certainly possible, but it's a weird move after they doubled down with UHD Bluray on the Slim, where the small cost cutting would have been much more important.

    The dGPU hypothesis is becoming quite a stretch at this point. Not impossible but Phil confirmed the motherboard image is correct and done on purpose. I see no place for having a fast bus reaching a separate CPU, 3 sides are busy with the 384bits memory bus, and the remaining quadrant is the power delivery. The heatsink plate they have shown doesn't reach beyond the main SoC and Ram. Unless of course it's further away, and they added a custom chip inbetween, like an address generator chip from MOS Technology , providing much more than just DMA and RAM access arbitration, it could execute copy operations, basic bitmap and boolean ops, and even display-synchronized memory ops.
     
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  19. Jay

    Jay
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    where did you hear that?
    i remember him saying something of the nature of "we expected people to analyse the render, so not surprised"
    that's very different than him saying the motherboard image is correct.
    you able to dig out link to where you heard that?
     
  20. Shifty Geezer

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