Weighing in some more, I still don't think it's a certainty that this is done.
The CMA tries to say that in 10-15 years, this will happen or that will happen, in a hypothetical sense.
However, the Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT) says this.
Assessment of impairment to dynamic competition will almost always involve consideration of expectations (i.e. an outcome with a more than 50% chance). Clearly, that outcome will involve consideration of multiple factors, but we doubt very much (although of course every case must turn on its facts) if an impairment to dynamic competition that is not thought to manifest itself within five years at the outside can be considered to be an expectation. The world is simply not that predictable.
A cloud gaming provider reached profitability in 2022, having started in 2019; expects cloud gaming being common in a decade (page 201)
Another provider [REDACTED] submitted that it had reached profitability in 2022 having started operating in 2019, although this excludes hardware expenses. It stated that it has high capital expenditure due to hardware investments, and that a hardware solution with efficient balance between cost and performance is key to profitability in cloud gaming. This provider also stated that cloud gaming will be the main way users access gaming content in 7-10 years.
That's outside the purview that CAT has given the CMA to go by in terms of time and not one of you here think that this is going to be the last generation of hardware from either Microsoft, Sony or Nintendo.
(d) [REDACTED] stated that is likely that cloud gaming services will grow especially in markets with free fast internet access and low console penetration. It noted that in the UK 'machine gaming' (ie on console or PC) is most popular as there is no latency. It described cloud gaming as being early in its life cycle, and that as a rough guess it could be 10-15 years before cloud gaming replaces consoles.
See, all of these companies are all over the place with their projections of when the cloud is supposed to take off but the CMA, a group of people outside of the industry is going to know the industry better than the industry people? Also, that's outside of consideration for 5 years too.
The CMA ultimately took every conceivable hypothetical and weighed it against Microsoft. I'm not saying that Microsoft is going to ultimately win anything, but I do believe that the CMA is going to have to revisit a lot of this because CAT will rule in Microsoft's favor in a large degree.
The entire argument is that Activision makes Microsoft's cloud business unbeatable, mainly off the strength of Call of Duty, which is patently absurd. That is the CMA's single theory of harm. WiiU had COD, sold 10 million. Switch doesn't have COD, sold over 100 million. CMA is going to have to answer for a lot of these answers is what I think.