If Wii become number 1

[Shifty Geezer]

Shifty, when judging of a system's graphical prowess it's not the presence of negative examples (you can and will have duds on each every system), it's the absence of positive examples that can be worrying.

True and very valid. To date I can't say I've been particularly impressed by Wii. MP3 and the golf game look very cirrent-gen to me, with perhaps better IQ. Red Steel does look a step up though. Comparatively I think the difference will become very prominent, like DS to PSP. And maybe that won't matter, if the games and gameplay is fun enough. I certainly don't think Wii can be hoped to be graphically similar though.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

as about system selles, again, we're not talking here of you or me, we're talking of the common moms and dads and their kids. surely system selles affect their purchase decisions, but not as much as say the kid's birthday.

Well, I guess I really don't know who we're talking about. Because I don't know any 'common moms and dads' who spend $150-$250 on the kid's birthday, let alone on the holidays.

That's the reason why the PS2 is selling so well. Because it's just now becoming reasonable for 'common moms and dads'. I assume, that other sales are generated by multi-user households, so instead of spending $250 on Little Timmy for his birthday, the entire family gets a new video game console for Christmas (or whatever).

 

[fearsomepirate]

This is me doing a good job of not responding to certain exemplars of a certain kind of post.

Anyway, I'm not really thrilled with Wii graphics, either. Excite Truck and Mario Galaxy look pretty good, and the Red Steel gameplay demo we've seen has its moments, but I'm not saying "wow." But I play a lot of games that don't amaze me by doing 47 dot products per pixel...and it's not like consoles look breathtaking for long. I doubt I'm the only John Q Public who has seen global illumination videos and been unable to understand why they're supposed to be so amazing.

I think that Wii's success will require on the generation being decided early on. I think Gamecube's fate was decided at E3 2003, not the year+ after launch. Wii needs to have monstrous success and attract a lot of 3rd party support before PS3 and Xbox 360 drop into the Everyman price bracket. Once PS3 and/or 360 are priced at $199 or less, it won't matter how cheap Wii is. If it doesn't have the absolute most compelling software line and a huge fan base already, people who held off getting a next-gen console will ignore it. Basically, Nintendo needs to catch all the people who would otherwise wait for a price drop within about 18 months of launch. Otherwise, this console will be a flash in the pan with no longevity.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Well, I would say it depends on 'what average joe' has.

Which actually goes full circle to the wiimote.

Take.. Oh.. Madden, for example. That has been 'altered' in order to make use of the wiimote. Now, if that is the cool thing.. then other kids will want to buy a wii, their parents will see it as (more) affordable, and that's what will gain popularity.

But if little Timmy has the Madden and uses the wii, and little Johnny has Madden on a 360 and Tommy, Larry, and Billy all enjoy playing Madden on at little Johnny's house, they're going to be bugging their parents to buy them a 360... not a wii.

Oh, and little Timmy will probably eventually do the same because his Madden Wiimote Skills won't be any of use to him when he's competing against Tommy, Larry and Billy at Johnny's house.

 

[TheChefO]

Well, I would say it depends on 'what average joe' has.

Which actually goes full circle to the wiimote.

Take.. Oh.. Madden, for example. That has been 'altered' in order to make use of the wiimote. Now, if that is the cool thing.. then other kids will want to buy a wii, their parents will see it as (more) affordable, and that's what will gain popularity.

But if little Timmy has the Madden and uses the wii, and little Johnny has Madden on a 360 and Tommy, Larry, and Billy all enjoy playing Madden on at little Johnny's house, they're going to be bugging their parents to buy them a 360... not a wii.

Oh, and little Timmy will probably eventually do the same because his Madden Wiimote Skills won't be any of use to him when he's competing against Tommy, Larry and Billy at Johnny's house.

Good point - and game trading/borrowing will also play into it. I wonder if Nintendo will mandate that a "regular" control scheme also be included in their multiplat games... hmm

 

[blakjedi]

I think the average person buys one console in a generation and for the last two generations that has been a Playstation. The goal of of Nintendo or MS is to battle for who will be that second console that a gamer may get once prices go down and game quality goes up...

MS hoped to short circuit this Playstation rule by launching first with similar power and features and games. So now the first console of next gen gaming is a 360... at least until November 2006. If you already own a 360:

You're waiting to "trade up" to a PS3,
To buy a PS3 in addition to your 360
or buy a Wii in addition to to your 360.

If you dont own a 360:

You are either waiting to see the PS3 first,
waiting for 360 to drop in price
waiting for Halo or
waiting for Wii.

Very few people will cop all three systems so its either PS3/360: really expensive, PS3/Wii: expensive, or 360/Wii: least expensive.

 

[pc999]

I think that people are forgeting one very important point that we are forgeting that it is marketing, probably it will not be presented as just a new console but the new cool thing that let you do a new thing, see DVDs, go to the net, talk with friends,it is great for partys or even for when you are alone and that you can really buy.

It is very diferent than one more thing used to play game like we are used (and that dont apleal more than the old ones) and meybe play HD movies (that many may not care).

Those guys can alter the way some people think about a certain thing.

 

[INKster]

Are wii, errr... we even sure that it will read DVD-video out of the box, or will require some sort of post-buy add-on like Xbox 1 ?

 

[OtakingGX]

Are wii, errr... we even sure that it will read DVD-video out of the box, or will require some sort of post-buy add-on like Xbox 1 ?

I think that's the intention. You'll need to buy a dongle or a DVD remote to play movies.

 

[StefanS]

I think that's the intention. You'll need to buy a dongle or a DVD remote to play movies.

I think I read the same thing in an interview, though I am not entirely sure.

 

[ninzel]

ninzel, that's fairly simplified an argument you've got there. being a hw enthusiast does not equate to being devoid of any sense of hw efficiency, ellegance of system design, or goal-meeting factor. the point you're trying to argue here is essentially identical to saying 'car enthusiasts are exclusively into american muscle cars! they'd never even look at anything of less than 500HP!' which statement is totally false, despite the fact that surely there are car enthusiast who are indeed into american muscle cars.

You sound like a thoughtful gamer and hardware enthusiast,unfortunately I think guy's like you are in the minority in the gaming world. I was talking in generalities of course.

 

[Arwin]

I think that's the intention. You'll need to buy a dongle or a DVD remote to play movies.

The latter somehow seems ... I mean, we have the wiimote, but wii can't use it for controlling DVD playback?

As for the title:

... it won't be for very long.

At least, that's how I feel about it. The system just doesn't have the same kind of durability. Once the 360/PS3 prices come down (and they invariably always will), the Wii will lose ground fast.

I think we'll have different demographics. I mean, games like Excite Truck really aren't going to compete with games Forza 2/GT4, or even stuff like Fatal Inertia (latest trailer looks slick), now are they?

But they also don't have to - I think Nintendo managed to make a profit on the GameCube despite it coming in 2nd/3rd in the console race. You don't have to have the biggest marketshare to be a winner in that respect.

 

[_xxx_]

It won't be for very long for any of the three. In 1-2 years, you'll have better gfx on the PC and the wow-factor will fade away. So in the end, it'll come down to pricing/content and "coolness", as always.

 

[darkblu]

ok. i think people need to stop equating computational power to good games. computational power is nothing but a potential. whether, and how it gets realised is entirely up to the tallent of developers. gigaflops of dot products and terrabytes of bandwidth are just that - and there's no magical formula that translates them into gaming gems without tons of human creativity.

for those who still cannot see what i'm trying to say - consoles success is ultimately a question of how many and how good developers you have for the paltform. this is the fundamental asset, not the hardware caps. it's never been the hardware (unless it's some brain-dead pos). that's basically why the final generation of titles for a phasing-out console gen is usually so much better than the initial wave of titles for an incoming console generation regardless of any mind-boggling hw disparities - because the collective 'goodness' of developers for the prev generation has ramped up - devs have accumulated ideas doable on the old hw. in this regard i'd take a phasing-out console generation over a minty new one any time.

at the end of the day what you need to ask yourself is: has ninty got sufficient dev tallent to pull this off? and can they be expected to gain developer momentum or on the contrary? how do devs feel about the platform? these are the fundamental questions, not whether the wiimote will be tiresome to use, what percentage of the surfaces will have bumpmapping, or will the system be uncapable of outputting hd. the system will be in the right BOM/price-range, and does not seem to be brain-dead - that's all it matters about the hw.

 

[fearsomepirate]

I think we'll have different demographics. I mean, games like Excite Truck really aren't going to compete with games Forza 2/GT4, or even stuff like Fatal Inertia (latest trailer looks slick), now are they?

You know, if Excite Truck is the only racing game that comes out for Wii, you'll have a good argument here. However, George Harrison mentioned in an interview that not having a competitor to Gran Turismo was a big reason the Gamecube sank commercially. In general, business execs don't say "This is a problem" if they don't plan to fix it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Nintendo has a racing sim under wraps, possibly as a 2nd party title.

 

[TheChefO]

Fat Kids

Regarding Wii's potential, we've talked about price, we've talked about innovative control scheme, we've talked about Nintendo exclusives, and we've talked about 3rd party support. One thing which I don't think has properly been brought up about Wii's potential to this point - Fat Kids. I don't know how this issue resonates outside the U.S., but this is a general issue here which is being brought up and addressed more and more these days. One of the "culprits" people like to point to for this 'epidemic' is videogames. "All these kids do is stay inside and play videogames. When I was a kid I was outside, doing this and that" etc.

How will parents / news media react to a new games system this year that is not only the latest and greatest from the kid friendly Nintendo, not only priced "reasonably", but it also encourages "active" gamers. I smell an epidemic of large proportions.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

How will parents / news media react to a new games system this year that is not only the latest and greatest from the kid friendly Nintendo, not only priced "reasonably", but it also encourages "active" gamers. I smell an epidemic of large proportions.

Excuse me while I make the exact opposite argument.

Fat kids are fat kids for a reason.

Fat kids are less likely to play a video game that requires physical exercise.

Sure, Stan, Kyle and Kenny might play the Wii. Cartman will play his 360 or PS3, and if his mom buys him a wii, all he'll do is use the wiimote to dole out some tough love to the kitty.

 

[StefanS]

However, George Harrison mentioned in an interview that not having a competitor to Gran Turismo was a big reason the Gamecube sank commercially. In general, business execs don't say "This is a problem" if they don't plan to fix it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Nintendo has a racing sim under wraps, possibly as a 2nd party title.

Well, we have been hearing that gospel for years. But in the end that is not going to happen. Why should Nintendo shell out a lot of money to produce a racing game that apparently is doesn't matter to their core audience? Nintendo sells a lot of copies of Mario Kart for a fraction of the developement costs that a GT-type game would consume. It's just not viable for them.

 

[TheChefO]

Excuse me while I make the exact opposite argument.

Fat kids are fat kids for a reason.

Fat kids are less likely to play a video game that requires physical exercise.

Sure, Stan, Kyle and Kenny might play the Wii. Cartman will play his 360 or PS3, and if his mom buys him a wii, all he'll do is use the wiimote to dole out some tough love to the kitty.

I'm not saying the kids will be clamoring for it as it will enable them to get a great workout. I'm saying parents could be more "into" the idea of Wii over other game consoles and potentially lure in parents that don't like the idea of game consoles but like what Nintendo is offering in Wii with titles like "brain training", and "sports". Nintendo could be very very successful in marketing this thing to parents.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

I'm not saying the kids will be clamoring for it as it will enable them to get a great workout. I'm saying parents could be more "into" the idea of Wii over other game consoles and potentially lure in parents that don't like the idea of game consoles but like what Nintendo is offering in Wii with titles like "brain training", and "sports". Nintendo could be very very successful in marketing this thing to parents.

Which would be worthless to all involved. The Parents, Nintendo, and the children. Because the Cartman is going to use it to rest his cheesy poofs on, he's not going to play it.

So the parents fall to marketing, thinking a video game console will get their children in shape (???), they purchase it, the kid plays it, finds it tiring and uses it as a coaster.

The parents wasted money, the kids don't have a source of entertainment, and Nintendo only loses money because they'll likely need an attachment rate greater than 2 in order to profit, and the parents won't continue to purchase games for a system their child refuses to play, while insisting they get a 360 or PS3 instead.