If Wii become number 1

Absolutely nothing. It's not like Wii games look like crap, y'know. And while I am a gfx enthusiast in the PC space, a console's purpose is to play fun games. Fun != eye candy.

Also, XB360 for the same price seems rather improbable.

EDIT: the sensors etc. are not really expensive, the wiimote and the sensor bar are probably <$20 alltogether.

 

I already see the ads "Be a nerd with muscles who gets the chicks, get the Wii! We do something for your fitness!"

 

An engineer friend of mine tells me that accelerometers are actually pretty cheap these days. So maybe they're not terribly expensive.

If Wii dominates Japan (which I believe it will), you may see a number significant Japanese development houses can their PS3 projects just like they did with N64. Sure, it's one thing to say you couldn't care less about Wii when all that appeals to you on the machine is Red Steel, Excite Truck, and a few cross-platform games, but it's quite another if Square makes it the primary platform for their RPGs, Capcom focuses on it for their action slashers, and it becomes the lead platform for all things Konami. Then what will you say?

 

Well think about it. You've heard these guy's on boards,the guy's who are so caugth up on having the most powerful system that it's like it's an ego thing for them. Even if Nintendo made the most powerful system, their would still be Nintendo's image to contend with, and of course the style of games. I just don't see guy's that right now wouldn't think of playing Pikimin simply because of it's style, moving over to Nintendo just because thier specs out did the competition.Those guy's have to play games like Prey or Gears of War.I'm talking the guy's who will play these types of games to the exclusion of games like Pikmin or Elebit's. A Nintendo system would never satisfy the image they want to have, because Nintendo as whole is't trying to create that image.

 

This statement could have been taken from 1995! Honestly I agree it would take quite a bit to change people's perspective of Nintendo. But at that time they were hyping an unrealisticly powerful Ultra64 home system and conurrently producing games that were outside the mold of typical Nintendo (Killer Instinct, Crusin USA).

If Nintendo were actually able to come through on the promise of unquestioned system superiority at home, they woud have had no problem selling the system to hardcore gamers and shedding the "kiddie image" as long as they also produced content that reflected this outreach to the hardcore gamer. History proves that, as they were oh so close to doing it succesfully a decade ago.

 

I linked to some in one of the countless threads on the wiimote, but here's an example. This one can do 10G, the ones used in wii are definitely an order of magnitude cheaper, not even counting the rabate thanks to huge number of them ordered.

(the site is in german, but this is the place where I order my parts thus I haven't bothered searching for the english version)

EDIT: can't link directly, it's €3.70 a piece. So in a huge bulk and using a lower graded version I guess~$1-1.50 a piece

 

ninzel, that's fairly simplified an argument you've got there. being a hw enthusiast does not equate to being devoid of any sense of hw efficiency, ellegance of system design, or goal-meeting factor. the point you're trying to argue here is essentially identical to saying 'car enthusiasts are exclusively into american muscle cars! they'd never even look at anything of less than 500HP!' which statement is totally false, despite the fact that surely there are car enthusiast who are indeed into american muscle cars.

 

Why should they buy one of the others?

The fact is that there is many people that dont play because games are to hard and/or to hard to control and they need to spend a lot of time till can do anything well, so they end not playing.

 

And there lies the rub.

When trying to figure out how to use the wiimote across genres and in all games, and questioning the utility of doing such, the response given is normally 'there will still be a standard controller!'.

The resulting experience then, is just as you've outlined. Either the wiimote works as a new, unique and revolutionary input device... or it doesn't.

(Unrelated to SG's comments) I also wanted to point out how hysterical it is that members of Beyond3D are so quick to dismiss the importance of visual prowess.

What is it that attracts people to the X360 kiosks to stop and watch somebody play for a couple of seconds, or pick up a controller and play themselves? It's the graphics. 'Wow, that game looks good! That really looks like they're driving a 65 GTO down the streets of San Fransisco in the fog!' <Just made all that up, FWIW>

And, as I said quite some time ago, if the wiimote is so spectacular that it is able to more than makeup for any lack of horsepower, it will be copied. I said it before and then suddenly Sony decides to add part of the functionality to their controller. MS so far has essentially said 'Well, we can already make the PS3 controller because we built in 7 years ago, and we're still looking into other controller schemes.'

So, like I predicted when the wiimote was initially revealed, both Sony and MS are already working on copying the wiimote, and they will most likely be able to get the product to market very quickly should it really become that big of a deal.

 

If Wii ends up in 1st place, it will certainly not be by a large margin. If such a scenario plays out, it will mostly be about Sony giving up a large portion of its current marketshare. Such an event will mean a market that is fairly evenly divided, and as such, I do not foresee the Nintendo game lineup changing all that much. I don't see Wii as a "primary" console at all if it has a similiar lineup of games as GC. I like GC as a second console .. PS2 is just in a whole other league. If it came down to price vs games, I would rather strain my wallet than my game experience.

And this is just an opinion .. but I just dont see the Wiimote making all that much of a difference. No doubt Sony will take the next evolutionary step with Eyetoy .. and while both may bot necesarrily be the same, are following the same sort of path.

 

Agreed - all things being equal, the Wii is be a big gamble on new and innovative control schemes and people adopting them. However, there is another factor which will play a role this gen. Price.

 

see Rancid, one revolutionary thing does not have to place into oblivion everything that was there before it came to be. and i don't even consider the wiimote as revolutionary, but more like evolutionary.

funny thing is that every assumtion that the wii is a one-trick pony so far has been made on the basis that people would never play the next nintendo if it was not for the wiimote. but why is that? of the very little material from the paltform we've seen so far nothing hints at inherent incapability of adequate visuals by today's standards.

people don't automatically go for the 'most-advanced' (not my term) and most expensive unit on the market available at the time of their shopping. not even the afficionados. generally the buying decisioning is the following: people see some value in a product, people compare that perceived value to the pricetag, and based on how big that former perceived value is (in their own value system), and how close the pricetag stands to that they buy/pass.

an anecdotal scene from last weekend at my local eb games: a mother has brought her early teens son to the store, the kid is apparently looking to change his old xbox for some new cool toy.
mother to the eb guy: we're looking for a new console to replace our xbox which my son is bored with.
eb guy: erm, this new system from ms here, a little bit steep price but great new tech inside, will be good for the next 20 years (ed: at this moment i barely kept myself from bursting into laughter)
mother (interested): oh, really? .. what's the pricetag?
eb guy shows pricetag.
mother: no. how about that psp over there.

funny thing is that the woman barely glanced at what visuals the 360 was producing 2m away from her. the kid was not particularly enthusiastic about the 360 either. but what is even funnier is that the eb guy had to revert to such blattant blowing out-of-proprtion of the product's lifespan to persuade a normal customer to even consider the console at that price point. invain.

the bottomline - of this generation the wii is the one console that most closely matches the common customer's perception of a game console's pricepoint. and it does not matter if somebody else is trying to sell them a cray in disguise. unless the more expensive systems get some _definitive_ system sellers, don't expect any serious acceptance by the market where a system like the wii is positioned right in the consumer's focal point value-wise.

 

Of the info we have, the rumours of hardware place it quite a way below the others in probable performance, and the visuals have been a very mixed bag. On the one hand you have trailers for Pokemon that look great, though we don't know how representative they are, and on the other hand you have graphical turkey's like the Elebits, where we also don't know how representative they are. They didn't concern themselves with making DS particularly competitive in the visuals department and Nintendo have said they don't much care to compete in that area on their consoles either. So if Wii is a marked improvement over current gen, and visually acceptible over the next 5 years, I think that'll be something of a surprise for most people.

 

Never play? No, I think the assumption is that if the wii is a one-trick pony, then the same people will be interested in it that were interested in their last attempt at a console, and most likely will be interested for the same reason: exclusives.

I would certainly disagree here. Unless you aren't including top of the line PCs and the 360 in your definition of 'today'. We've seen nothing that demonstrates vast improvement over the last generation.

I'm sure that after hearing the price tag, she wouldn't care if it walked the dog, cooked dinner, and took the kids to soccer practice.

As I said in another thread, $399 is extremely expensive for a toy.

And the counter-point is that unless the wii has some _definitive_ system sellers, it doesn't really matter what price point it's positioned at. The Gamecube has been the least expensive of all of last gen consoles for quite some time.

 

Shifty, when judging of a system's graphical prowess it's not the presence of negative examples (you can and will have duds on each every system), it's the absence of positive examples that can be worrying. and in this regard wii has shown enough positive examples to leave little reason for concern - just look at mp3 and tell me it's a bad looking game by today's standards. then there's red steel. and that tekmo golf title looks sweet despite lack of progressive or widescreen.

 

that's a given, and it's valid for every platform. we re talking of the general consumer's view here, though. people who go the a store and expect to find a replacement for their older toy, without a strong in-advance reason to go with this or that system (aside from brand recognition, that is).

and i'd say i've not seen anything on the current generation of consoles that qualifies right away as new-gen visuals to me. i have seen some work in progress on pc's, though, naturally, pc's being those potent development-centric platforms.

it is indeed. no argument here.

it's one thing to be less expensive by 10%, it's another thing to be at half the price of the competition, no? especially when the competition does not even fit in the commonly-perceived price range for such a class of product.

as about system selles, again, we're not talking here of you or me, we're talking of the common moms and dads and their kids. surely system selles affect their purchase decisions, but not as much as say the kid's birthday.

 

The problem with Wii is all teh games look like they suck. Sorry but I had to say it.

Red Steel looks completely on rails, completely gimmicky and borring i.e. aim here, swing here etc. Their games like tennis involve no control of the character, you're simply swinging your arm back and forth, games like metroid and zelda are essentially gamecube games with very minor tweaks for the new control scheme.

Wii's success will depend on delivering compelling content. Consumers aren't going to buy it en masse cause it's 'just so nifty', it needs the content. If they concentrate on smaller DS style games, they may pull in many new console gamers to the mix, but they'll never dominate the market as the majority of current gamers will turn to PS3 or 360 to get their fix.

Given the sales of DS, I have to think that Wii will have good sales, they're clearly on to something. I just don't think it's really competing with the other 2 consoles, they're targeted at completely different types of gamers.

 

Bullshit. I for one play games for graphics. I, frankly, could care what the remainder of the gaming community thinks, because I know I'm not alone on this matter. There's a major difference between games like Mario 64 and Oblivion, and if there wasn't we would still be stuck in the fucking dark ages of gaming, with little to no improvement or diversity.

 

Agreed 100% - For this reason it negates the "need" for a Wii system seller as much. The perception that Wii won't sell any better than GC because gc was also cheaper does not factor into account the magnitude of the price disparity between it and the most popular brand last gen. In other words - last gen, gc was at most $100 cheaper, soon after, $50 cheaper and this gap got smaller and smaller. This gen, the gap is as much as $400 and while I expect this gap to shorten over time, the initial BOM disparity between the two forces some parents into a very clear decision early on of not even considering ps3 where as last gen, ps2 was much more in the running for what Xmas gift Billy would get under the tree.