How Good is Good Enough for Xbox 360's Launch Line-Up?

[jvd]

You cant be serious? I cant believe you're really pulling out all these thin air numbers with a straight face. Its just been a stream of amazingly broad sweeping prognostication and generalizations in MS' favor from you. Package content, price drops, game library, branding of casual gamers, the importance of franchises, comparing the handheld market to the console market...are you even trying to appear remotely objective? This is cringing to read.

Please show me where my numbers are wrong .

Then you can comment on my post .

1) launch xbox titles will have been on the market for almost a year when the ps3 launches. There are bound to be a few games that are in the 20$ mark .

2) The xbox 360 iwll be on the market for almost a year before the ps3 launches and will most likely see a price drop at that time

I'm speaking the usa here . ALso most likely europe .

If you have a problem with my numbers please explain why

 

[jvd]

That's highly unlikely.

MS would go with a game bundle at the same price before they did a price drop. They could bundle 2 launch games with the 360 for less than a $50 cost to them.

Perhaps they can . But then again my point is still just as valid if they bundled 2 launch games in there and kept the same price


xbox 360$ plus 2 games 400$ Ps3 400$ memory card 20$ 2 games at 50$ and we are at 520$ . The games are 60$ each then its 540$

Or for gamers on a budget a 300$ xbox 360 with 2 games bundled in , 1 memory card at 30$ and your at 330$ for a xbox 360 core with 2 games vs 540$ for the ps3

 

[jvd]

ign on the state of the games http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/658/658313p1.html

In one of the first games to significantly knock out load times, Infinity Ward has whittled the load times of Call of Duty 2 down to less than six seconds. Oh yes, indeed. I counted the short seconds, and as simple as that joy seems, waiting for the elimination of load times has seemed like a lifetime (or at least, since the N64 cartridge days, ). In a continuing pattern, Call of Duty 2 yet again rocks my world. In a different tack, EA has created plat arenas so that you can shoot hoops in NBA Live, or score goals in FIFA while the game loads in the background.

Wow 6 seconds ... that is sweet

 

[jvd]

While Microsoft's X05 event demonstrated it's ready to launch in November, not everything is in order. THQ's The Outfit and Saint's Row look shaky at best, EA's games aren't fully realized, and several titles look just like high-res versions of their current generation partners (Tony Hawk's American Wasteland, GUN, King Kong, Need for Speed Most Wanted, to name a few). But when you take a step back, compared to other launches, the overall quality of the lineup -- not necessarily the individual titles on their own -- but the overall quality of the games is high. Even if every one of these games is rated in the mid to high 8s, for a launch -- that's an achievement.

Looking back on Nintendo's Luigi's Mansion, Pikmin, and WaveRace Blue at launch, and Sony's two standouts from 29 games (SSX and Madden), this set of 26 or so games looks very good. Project Gotham Racing 3, Kameo, Perfect Dark Zero, Call of Duty 2, Dead Or Alive 4, Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion, NBA 2K6, Condemned, King Kong -- all of these can more easily contend with those others in their day.

Seems to be shaping up nicely i think

 

[liverkick]

If you have a problem with my numbers please explain why

Dont be coy, you're basing an "argument" on numbers for SKUs and price changes that havent even been dictated to or by the market yet! A little trigger happy arent we?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

His points are fairly valid, just a little long winded

These are valid points as to why the 'casual' North American/European gamer may very well prefer to pick up an X360 over a PS3 next year.

Save that it still doesn't explain why the hardcore gamer who's been waiting for a PS3 will, at PS3's release and if it doesn't have a strong launch lineup, buy a XB360 instead.

And that was the point he raised, in this thread about how strong XB360's launch lineup is (not who's going to sell the most consoles in the long run), where no-one else was commenting on how one console overall will outsell the other until it all turned stupid and people start chucking out market predictions. Which I'll add we've heard from jvd like a dozen times before in other threads. Just reviewing the thread we've got people talking lineup, games, importanance of library, and then jvd steps in with 'I really think its sony thats in hot water' and starts speculating on prices and dates and expressing the belief that without a strong launch lineup those that would buy a console will instead buy the competitors, in exactly the same way didn't happen on PS2 with people looking at the lousy launch lineup and instead buying the DC.

jvd has yet to explain why Mr. Sonyfan, who has been eagerly awaiting PS3 and it's exclusive content, the hardcore early adopter happy to pay the high initial price, will look at PS3's launch lineup, and if he decides he doesn't like it, instead blow his money on an XB360 which doesn't have the games he wants. If I were keen to play MGS and Tekken and all that jazz, I certainly wouldn't buy a different console. If the games I want aren't out I'll save my money until they are. jvd seems to agree with me that the hardcore aren't swayed and will buy the hardware regardless...

My point is that the hardcore don't care they will buy what they want , 1 to 3 systems .

I can't see many early adopters being different, unless someone can explain to me how I'm wrong in that understanding.

 

[jvd]

Dont be coy, you're basing an "argument" on numbers for SKUs and price changes that havent even been dictated to or by the market yet! A little trigger happy arent we?

Once again you fail to conuter anything .

Ms has a system called platnium games . Any game that sells 1million copys will after a year or so be made 20$ This is common practice with all video game companys from ms to sony to nintendo .

Secondly even if we set the xbox 360 price at 400$ and figure hey its been on the market for 1 year something went wrong and ms can't drop the price and can only price at what sony cna price a brand new system for that is still

440$ vs 540-560$ for the ps3 . 100 + cheaper

Of courjse this is if sony can launch at 400$ from all indications the ps3 will be more expensive to make . Also this is assuming that ms is not able to drop the prices which i doubt . I believe ms can drop the price next summer if they want too as they will already be saving good money

 

[jvd]

jvd has yet to explain why Mr. Sonyfan, who has been eagerly awaiting PS3 and it's exclusive content, the hardcore early adopter happy to pay the high initial price, will look at PS3's launch lineup, and if he decides he doesn't like it, instead blow his money on an XB360 which doesn't have the games he wants. If I were keen to play MGS and Tekken and all that jazz, I certainly wouldn't buy a different console. If the games I want aren't out I'll save my money until they are. jvd seems to agree with me that the hardcore aren't swayed and will buy the hardware regardless...

Your the only one talking about mr sony fan .

What about the other 80-85 million people who bought the ps2 and bought it because it was cheap and had a large libary of games .

The xbox 360 will be out for a year and will be selling to a diffrent group of people

That is the disconnect your not getting .

Launch is the only time hardcore gamers matter and they actually don't matter. They will allways be there to buy 2-3 systems on the day they are launched. Its allways what matters after and as i said the xbox 360 through system pricing and software pricing will be selling to a whole diffrent set of gamers who are going to look at hte ps3 and the xbox 360 and see the xbox 360 has a slew of games with many launch titles being reduced in price . While the ps3 will have a small libary and expensive games .

This is what happened with the xbox . The ps2 through software was a better buy. You could get a ps2 with 4 or 5 games for the cost of a xbox with 2 games .

The same hting wlil happen here . As i've said many times those buying 6 months after luanch don't care about certian titles , they care about the quanity of titless

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Your the only one talking about mr sony fan .

Uh, no. You started talking about sony fans not buying PS3 because of a lack of titles. Let me remind you what you wrote...

Because if ps3 doesn't launch with any big titles that are awaited by sony fans they will go with the system that has more games.

There you are saying the Sony fans awaiting the PS3 to play their favourite franchises will buy a different console if the PS3 doesn't launch with some big titles.

What about the other 80-85 million people who bought the ps2 and bought it because it was cheap and had a large libary of games .

This is talking about AFTER release, what the masses will buy over the coming years. I don't care to discuss that at this juncture (it's been said before) and wasn't discussing that and I'm not sure anyone else here was either. That's a different topic. We're talking LAUNCH titles and buying behaviours at PS3's LAUNCH, and your assertion that if PS3 doesn't lanch with big titles the Sony fans will by XB360 instead. You have yet to explain why Sony fans awaiting Sony franchises will buy a different console that will not have those franchises, if those franchises are available at launch. And as I've presented, historically is it not the case that at launch fans buy the system regardless of what software is available?

 

[scooby_dooby]

He's simply saying that many people who bought a PS2 last time around, aka "sony fans" may choose to buy an X360 next year, for the same reaosns they originally purchased the PS2.

Greater game library, and more affordable games. Chances are, there will be a $250 core system for sale next X-mas if MS stick to their promise of regular price cuts. A $250 X360 system with cheap games is some serious competition, hardcore ******s aside.

No-one's arguing about the hardcore gamers, that's a no brainer they will buy everything in stock. Your simply taking the phrase "sony fans" and thinking that auotomatically means hardcore gamers.

The argument is about the amount of mindshare X360 may be able to steal pover the next couple years and how that really puts Sony on the defensive. This is a very real scenario, brand/franchise loyalty aside, X360 will be the better purchase for the casual gamer over the next couple of years, Sony is catered more to the hardcore.

They've essentially reversed roles, so Sony is seriously going to have think about how they are going to counter the fact that X360 is going to be cheaper and have a larger game library.

 

[jvd]

Uh, no. You started talking about sony fans not buying PS3 because of a lack of titles. Let me remind you what you wrote...

Scooby gets my point exactly . The claim made was that sony has the bigger installed base this gen and it will carry over next gen and all because of sony games that will make them buy the ps3 over the xbox 360 .

My point is that for 2006 and most of 2007 it will be ms that has the big games and the most games along with a lower hardware + software cost and many of those 90m gamers could really care less about sony and as long as big hyped games are on the xbox 360 will go for that system just like they went for the ps2 when software + hardware costs and libary size was much cheaper / larger (Respectively ) than the xbox that had just launched and thats why the ps2 was able to continue to expand its installed base . The 10 millin unit launch was much more than 10 million it was able to get the games flowing towards the ps2 and as the xbox 360 was trying to capture what sony was doing in its first year the ps2 was reaching more than the hardcore gamers while the xbox was still in its launch period .


This time around for europe and america most likely the xbox 360 will be hitting its 1 year mark , it will have a large libary of games , a large amount of budget titles from launch that are now platnium titles . The system will already be in the millions sold world wide if not the tens of millions . The system will most likely be entering its first price drop . Which can equate into a 200-250$ core unit which is right where casuals start to buy the system . The premium can be at 300-350 $ . Or they can go with as others sugested in a tie in .

The market is alot more complicated than big named titles or as has been mentioned sony wouldn't be number one , it would be nintendo that would still be number 1.

 

[liverkick]

Once again you fail to conuter anything .

Ms has a system called platnium games . Any game that sells 1million copys will after a year or so be made 20$ This is common practice with all video game companys from ms to sony to nintendo.

Secondly even if we set the xbox 360 price at 400$ and figure hey its been on the market for 1 year something went wrong and ms can't drop the price and can only price at what sony cna price a brand new system for that is still

440$ vs 540-560$ for the ps3 . 100 + cheaper

We're up to $560 now?

I guess you've learned of the PS3 price and its packaged contents then? Dont be shy, where'd ya get the scoop?

I just wanna sum up the rest of these practically prescient assumptions of yours, they might be fun to reference later on. A) Sony is going to launch "a year or so" after Xbox 360 B) they're going to "run right into" 2, 3 or 4 automatic million sellers on 360 that will be marked down from the recently marked UP price of $60 down to $20 C) The majority of people who own a PS2 will naturally rather purchase the new MS system and these "Platinum Sellers" despite a still rapidly growing library for the huge PS2 userbase and the Third iteration of the best selling platform shortly on the way D) because going against all consumer and market logic the 90 or so million people who own a PS1/PS2 arent attached in any way to the brand or franchises on the actual platform E) so the PS3 will undoubtedly need compelling launch titles of their own (which of course they wont have) and face a massive backlash as the quality and ultra cheap 360 package will overwhelm sales in the face of it.

Really, the MS prism you consistently filter through on all topics for this forum couldnt be more pedantic. You're obviously a smart guy, I dont get it.

 

[liverkick]

They've essentially reversed roles, so Sony is seriously going to have think about how they are going to counter the fact that X360 is going to be cheaper and have a larger game library.

Im going to ask this seriously. Do you honestly expect MS to have a larger library over Sony by Xmas 07? Has Sony's publisher support erroded in any way? 6-8 months of development time aint much of a lead guys. This "everything to gain for MS, everything to lose for Sony" mindset isnt lending itself to a very balanced view of the pros and cons for each brands position next gen. MS is in a lot better space than they were last round for sure, but I dont see this chink in the armor you guys are consistently looking so hard for on Sony's end. Momentum isnt a one way street.

 

[Powderkeg]

Im going to ask this seriously. Do you honestly expect MS to have a larger library over Sony by Xmas 07? Has Sony's publisher support erroded in any way? 6-8 months of development time aint much of a lead guys. This "everything to gain for MS, everything to lose for Sony" mindset isnt lending itself to a very balanced view of the pros and cons for each brands position next gen. MS is in a lot better space than they were last round for sure, but I dont see this chink in the armor you guys are consistently looking so hard for on Sony's end. Momentum isnt a one way street.

If both companies release a similar number of games per month, then there is no reason not to expect the 360 to have the larger game library.

Support for the PS3 doesn't have to erode for MS to have the larger game library. All that has to happen is for 360 support to be roughly equal, and for MS to have an earlier launch. The latter is guaranteed, and the former looks extremely likely right now.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I think trying to predict who will have the larger library by XMAS 2007 is foolish.

I do expect the X360 to have a much larger library all the way through 2006, and well into 2007. Will PS3 catch up? Maybe. Maybe not. Who's to say??

X360 is hoping to have 10million systems sold by XMAS 2006, the PS3 will at best have 1/3 of that. So who's to say the PS3 will have alot more 3rd party support than X360?

Has Sony's 3rd party support erroded? No. But the X360's 3rd party support has grown incredibly, they have signed MANY japanese developers, as well as partnering with all the major players like Namco, Capcom Konami etc etc. Activision promises 40 games in next year alone, EA is on board in everyway. They have excellent relationships with all the big players, ubisoft, epic, ID software etc

Combine that with the fact that X360 is more cost-effective to develop for, and I don't know how anyone can presume PS3 will have more 3rd party support, it's the more expensive console to developer for...with the smallest userbase...why exactly will it recieve more 3rd party support?

IMO it's too early to guess into XMAS 2007 and into 2008, it depends on how the respective consoles sell during 06 and 07. However, in 2006, and the majority of 2007, X360 will undoubtedly have a larger game library.

 

[scooby_dooby]

A) Sony is going to launch "a year or so" after Xbox 360
In North America and Europe yes. Logical assumption.

B) they're going to "run right into" 2, 3 or 4 automatic million sellers on 360 that will be marked down from the recently marked UP price of $60 down to $20
- Logical assumption. COD2, Kameo, PD0 + Oblivion could all easily fit in this category. MS has done this throughout the XBOX lifespan, do you have a reson to believ they will stop?

C) The majority of people who own a PS2 will naturally rather purchase the new MS system and these "Platinum Sellers" despite a still rapidly growing library for the huge PS2 userbase and the Third iteration of the best selling platform shortly on the way
- He never said that. He said the majority of people who bought PS2 bought it for it's game library and lower costs, and that these advantages will go to the X360 this time around.

D) because going against all consumer and market logic the 90 or so million people who own a PS1/PS2 arent attached in any way to the brand or franchises on the actual platform
- Never said that. He said the majority of the 90million users were casuals, and not necessarily fans of any one franchise. This is true, most PS2 users bought it because of it's WIDER VARIETY of titles.

E) so the PS3 will undoubtedly need compelling launch titles of their own (which of course they wont have) and face a massive backlash as the quality and ultra cheap 360 package will overwhelm sales in the face of it.
- Not sure where you are pulling this out of. Of course PS3 will need a compelling line-up, as for the rest....you're exagerating to try and make your point.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

He's simply saying that many people who bought a PS2 last time around, aka "sony fans" may choose to buy an X360 next year, for the same reaosns they originally purchased the PS2.

Why would a Sony fan who's awaiting the big names on PS3 buy an XB360? I'm not talking casual gamers and those who will go where the biggest library and diversity is. I'm talking those fans waiting for PS3 to launch because they want to play next-gen incarnations of their favourite Sony franchises. That's afterall the people who buy a console at launch and for who the launch lineup is relevant. Why won't they either 1) Buy the PS3 anyway and wait for the games to appear, as happened on PS2 I believe or 2) Keep their money and not buy a PS3 until the games they want are released?


Or when jvd wrote...

Because if ps3 doesn't launch with any big titles that are awaited by sony fans they will go with the system that has more games.​

Did he really mean to say something more like...

More mainstream gamers who are waiting for PS3's launch before deciding whether to buy XB360 or not will be wanting big titles on PS3, otherwise they'll go with the system with a more established library.

​

Even then that doesn't make sense to me. The inital buyers are ALWAYS hardcore early adopters. The more casual gamers aren't buying consoles until well after the launch, and so the launch lineup is still pretty irrelevant to the success of the machine. So when talking about the launch lineup I can't see where the average console-owner fits in. If 4-6 months after PS3 launches there's no worthy games and the hardcore fans who'll buy it no matter what have all bought it, then there's a situation where potential customers might choose XB360 instead. But the launch lineup doesn't play much of a part in that.

My point is that for 2006 and most of 2007 it will be ms that has the big games and the most games

Again, what has that got to do with PS3's launch lineup,

"Because if ps3 doesn't launch with any big titles that are awaited by sony fans they will go with the system that has more games."

​

as the only people insterested in PS3 at laucnh are hardcore early adopters who'll buy it no matter what?

..ms that has the big games and the most games along with a lower hardware + software cost and many of those 90m gamers could really care less about sony and as long as big hyped games are on the xbox 360 will go for that system just like they went for the ps2 when software + hardware costs and libary size was much cheaper / larger (Respectively ) than the xbox that had just launched and thats why the ps2 was able to continue to expand its installed base . The 10 millin unit launch was much more than 10 million it was able to get the games flowing towards the ps2 and as the xbox 360 was trying to capture what sony was doing in its first year the ps2 was reaching more than the hardcore gamers while the xbox was still in its launch period .

I think you oversimplify the buying habits of the average gamers into only caring about the games. DC launched before PS2, had more games and better games when PS2 launched, and yet PS2 grew to eclipse DC. More games + better games when a console launches != more sales over launched console. I know people who have bought PS2 without any real knowledge what games were avaiable for it. They don't look up the internet and read about the different machines and games reviews and decide which platform has the most games that'd appeal to them. I think the majority buy a games machine because they like the idea of playing games, and grab one based on a whole load of other factors. For the first year or two most people won't give either XB360 or PS3 a thought because they don't want to spend that much money. And then when the prices drop they buy without much knowledge what games are available save what maybe their friends have shown on their console or what they might have browsed in store, or what's being advertised. I think saying people choose a console based on the games available is like saying people choose a TV based on picture quality or a watch based on timekeeping ability or buy a game for the quality of gameplay. People choose such things based on all sorts of other reasons than primary purpose. There's a popular make of designer watch (forget which one) that has lousy timekeeping but sells because it's a status symbol. The brand is more important than the function. That's but one reason to buy a particular make of watch. And the point of a game is entertaining gameplay yet many a title bad in that department still sells for other reasons. Likewise there's more than one criteria on which to buy a console than what games are available.
Though you might be right in thinking XB360 will have more titles for a while after PS3's launch, I don't think it safe to say that because of that XB360 will sell better. And I still don't understand what all this has to do with launch lineups when the average people who make up the majority of PS2's user base don't buy at launch but much later.

 

[jvd]

Wow the sony fan boys are really coming out the wood work and not even reading posts anymore

God this site has fallen way to far

Its impossible to have a discusion when people don't a ) read the posts b) tear them appart to find arguements that aren't htere

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

JVD, not to be rude, but you're not exactly helping the situation. Please stop with the fanboi comments, you know the rules. If someone's being a bad poster, report it, but don't go around saying things like that. It doesn't change the comments and it doesn't help the discussion.

 

[jvd]

JVD, not to be rude, but you're not exactly helping the situation. Please stop with the fanboi comments, you know the rules. If someone's being a bad poster, report it, but don't go around saying things like that. It doesn't change the comments and it doesn't help the discussion.

I've been reporting it but nothing is changing .

Posters are allowed to tak e all the pot shots they want with out even reading what is writen yet i'm not allowed to speak out about it ?

As i said the forum is going down the tubes