Wow. This is another of those debates where the argument I was making is completely lost on people. Maybe I'm speaking a foreign language? The point jvd made, which I was disagreeing with, was that when PS3 launches, if it doesn't have a strong lineup it's dead in the water. He's talking launch, not 5 years down the line. He's talking about PS3's early adopters, and not the mainstream public.
I have said that you don't need a launch lineup to launch a console. I point to PS2 which sold despite having no games and Dreamcast being in a better position. Yet Scooby and Powderkeg are talking about casuals and Dreamcast's success saying I'm wrong, despite talking about things I've mentioned already. You haven't really addressed the subject I was trying to explain.
HOwever your wrong . Look at the psp . Using your logic in the usa all 1 million shipped units in the first week should have sold out in the first week. However only 600 thousand of these sold out .
The same can happen with the ps3 if when it launches there is another option which has many better games .
In the usa sports games are very important and the dreamcast didn't have madden and ea games which even though there are better games on the market they have the hype , they get the buyers because for so long they were the only good game in town .
Ms will have a full sports line up months before the ps3 makes it to the usa market. Actually many games will most likely be on thier second generation games by the time the ps3 launches.
So a system wont sell if it dosen't have great games. Unlike the ps2 there aren't millions of dvd owners looking for a second dvd player / game system. Many people will not see any benfit from bluray even many of those with component input hd-tvs .
So what is the reason to go out and pick up a ps3 if there is no games ? The promise of future games ?
Causual players are not loyal . The xbox will be seeing its first price drop in the usa when the ps3 finally launches here .
I would suspect you can get a premium system for 350$ . Lets say the ps3 launches at 400$ .
With that 50$ savings you can get 2 platnium xbox 360 titles . Perhaps perfect dark zero and kameo both 20$ new . And still walk away with 10$ .
For the ps3 you would start off at 400$ is a memory card included ? If not add on 20$ for that (decent sized memory stick ) Then a game will be 50-60$ . Your already at 470$ /480$ . Second game and your at 520-540$ depending on the price of the game .
So your at 520-540$ for a ps3 and 2 games or 390$ for the same set up with the xbox 360 .
For a casual which is what the xbox 360 will be selling to that is a huge deal .
This is why the ps2 had such an easy win . The xbox launched a year later and sony already had over 10 million systems sold , it alerady had 20$ software titles . It had a steady flow of second generation titles .
The xbox had shortages , few launch titles that were all 50$ and all first gen. Its hard to catch up . Ms unlike sega has the staying power . They wont go under
This latest post from jvd is about long term sales, and has nothing to do with his first point. Ignoring the fact that most people buy later on, most are casual gamers, etc., which have no bearing on this argument as to what Sony fans awaiting Sony Exclusives are going to do, what reason is there to think that fans who want MGS will, when PS3 launches, say 'oh it hasn't got it, I'll buy an XB360 instead'? They won't get to play MGS on XB360! And historically, early adopters have bought new consoles regardless of whether they come with the exclusives at launch or not, no?
My point is that the hardcore don't care they will buy what they want , 1 to 3 systems .
Its 6 months after launch that matters .
If the ps3 launches in october for n.a / europe it will have a small library , will be more expensive and in shorter supply than the xbox 360 .
The xbox 360 will be much cheaper when you factor in games and it will already be selling to the next lvl of gamers . Not the hardcore that line up to buy it at launch but those that buy after the first price drop and when more games come out .
Your arguement has no merit because as we see with sonys last launch library gamers wont simply pick something up just because , they want quality content and with the psp they failed to sell out , whats going to stop the ps3 from the same fate ?
Whats going to stop ms from c ontinuing to increase thier market lead over sony ?
As i said 90m users didn't buy the ps2 at launch and thats all that matters because for next gen ms will have the lead and they will have the content flowing
