Feasibility of an upgradeable or forwards compatible console *spawn*

[Shifty Geezer]

Surely a simple, free patch would be 1000000 times better than what we get today.

It's an issue of dev time. What developers are going to want to spend resources patching an old game people own to run at 4k on the new PS4k? Sony would likely make their first party titles 4kable, but 3rd parties may not see much value. I guess it depends if they think they can sell more content as a result. A cheap patch and cheap 4k release to people who never bought the original may be an option.

 

[Michellstar]

My bet same soc at 16nn + higher clocks

Its to early for zen, first apus on amd roadmaps don't appear until next year.

It would be a risky move rush this PS4 with a new arch on a new process, while Orbis at 16nm could be tiny chip

 

[function]

What you mistakenly seem to have done completely by accident is use the price of a new movie on Blu-ray with the cheapest bargain basement DVD price. Whereas in fact, if you look at say, for example Star Wars: The Force Awakens, it's £15 on Blu-ray (limited edition) and £10 on DVD (standard edition). So uh.. yeah.

Yeah but I'm interested in older films (i.e. 6 months and after). They throw them at you for £3 at the local supermarket checkout. "Hey I'd like that film! How much on Bluray lol no".

Spectre, for example, was £7.99 on DVD on launch day, £15 on Bluray. Fair enough I ... err ...guess.

Just looking now at Amazon...
Dog Soldiers? £2.98 DVD. Bluary? Import only.
Old School? £1.49 DVD, £9 on Bluray
Bourne collection? £5.92 on DVD, £28.49 on Bluray

Galaxy Quest? £2.99 in my local supermarket, cheapest BR I've seen is a tenner.

Although thanks to checking I now know I can get Bourne Legacy on BR for £2.19.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

It's very unfortunate indeed that you have a particular propensity to buy 14 year old films that are unusually difficult to source on Blu-ray and not the mainstream films that are generally available for not much more than the DVD versions. Tesco and ASDA near me frequently have Blu-ray movies cheap and Amazon has special offers frequently - here's their Blu-ray library from cheapest price (under quid) to highest.

 

[tuna]

Huh? When l get a new iPhone l get a patch to update an existing game to utilise the power of the new iPhone. So i'd imagine a DriveClub patch to play in 4K. No problem with that.

I think you overestimate the interest in patching old games. A lot of IOS apps/games are also not updated for the latest OS and HW.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I think you overestimate the interest in patching old games. A lot of IOS apps/games are also not updated for the latest OS and HW.

This was definitely the case pre-retina but, and of course if very depends on what games you're buying, the majority of the games I've bought for iOS over the past couple of years have been very scalable and worked better on newer hardware.

 

[function]

It's very unfortunate indeed that you have a particular propensity to buy 14 year old films that are unusually difficult to source on Blu-ray and not the mainstream films that are generally available for not much more than the DVD versions. Tesco and ASDA near me frequently have Blu-ray movies cheap and Amazon has special offers frequently - here's their Blu-ray library from cheapest price (under quid) to highest.

I like the things I like, and don't consider that unfortunate. Nor should I. Anyone looking to "upgrade" their favourite movies collection to BR is likely to run into the same price angst I have been.

Away from the topic of which movies I'm most concerned about owning, and onto the added value of 4K BR to consoles ... Even just £5 extra for BR that costs 50p more to make doesn't seem like such a steal, and I'd think most people feel that way. Perhaps that's why even though 1080p sets are now ubiquitous and 4K sets are growing rapidly in popularity that DVD sales still overwhelm BR sales. 4KBR is even more of a stretch. Those ~£5 digital rentals are going to bring the hammer down on 4K long before it overtakes DVD or BR, IMO.

A "PS4K" would have to target enthusiasts like the early PS3 did. Given Sony's branding and positioning this gen that might work. Beyond that, into the mainstream, I don't think 4K BR will be a significant factor.

Can existing BR drives read the first two layers of BR4K? I f so I suppose you could go for a single release and just ship improved assets on the final layer....

 

[McHuj]

My bet same soc at 16nn + higher clocks

Its to early for zen, first apus on amd roadmaps don't appear until next year.

It would be a risky move rush this PS4 with a new arch on a new process, while Orbis at 16nm could be tiny chip

I'm not sure you can push clocks far enough to drive 4K pixels. Maybe they could get 50% more clock, but they have 4x the pixels at 4K.

Bandwidth would also have to increase substantially.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Even just £5 extra for BR that costs 50p more to make doesn't seem like such a steal, and I'd think most people feel that way.

Capitalism and economics 101 - nothing is priced at its raw economic value, things are priced at the value the market will sustain. If you're happy with DVD quality you can buy movies cheap although when you hit rock bottom, DVD and Blu-ray discs are about the same - as evidenced by the Amazon link above. You seem to be saying you want better than DVD quality but only want to pay DVD prices. If only life was that simple!

As for PS4K (this name is really growing on me), this is going to have extremely niche value until a lot more native content is available in 4K. I've had a Bravia X8 series 4K TV for almost two years and the best 4K video I've seen is stuff Sony supplied with the TV which was actually 4K 60fps footage of the last World Cup and which looks amazeballs. No 4K content I've seen since looks anywhere near as good, including Netflix. Even with H.265, ramping the resolution doesn't overcome the limited bandwidth.

Inevitably picture resolution will increase but I think 4K is the new 3D. It's interesting, niche and even quite good when the technology is implemented well, but I can't see 4K being the next technology cornerstone around which a new standard is anchored like VHS, DVD and Blu-ray. Extensions of what we have now, but nothing earth-shattering. But again, where is the content? So, as I said earlier, I can't see Sony developing a second SKU for 4K video. But adding 4K to new PS4 builds? Sure, why not. H.265 licence aside its probably virtually cost free with the next board redesign.

Can existing BR drives read the first two layers of BR4K? I f so I suppose you could go for a single release and just ship improved assets on the final layer....

Likely not. The new Ultra HD (Blu-ray 4K) standard had adopted a new a tri-layer format which are 33.3Gb/layer (compared to 25Gb/layer for Blu-ray) but only Dual (66.6Gb) and Tri-layer (100Gb) discs are formally supported. Presumably this means the layers are encoded differently so whether an existing Blu-ray drive can read an Ultra HD disc would, I guess, depend on the drive (and whether it can be reprogrammed) and the disc itself.

But if any drives and controllers were designed with this in mind it was probably the consoles.

 

[function]

I'm not sure you can push clocks far enough to drive 4K pixels. Maybe they could get 50% more clock, but they have 4x the pixels at 4K.

Bandwidth would also have to increase substantially.

With a little extra power I think we might see 1080p buffers being reconstructed in a 4K format using a combination of extra depth samples (perhaps using the 4X Z of the ROPS), edge reconstruction and then AA using a post process filter. Smart folks like sebbbi have been talking about various processing saving techniques for a while, and 4K might provide the impetus to dive in.

This way, you could potentially achieve much of the impact of 4K (at least given typical tv sizes and seating distances) with significantly less than twice (much less 4X) the processing power.

The bumf for 14nm was reckoning something like a 35% boost in clocks for the same power over 22nm, so maybe that would be enough to start looking at such techniques ...?

 

[function]

Capitalism and economics 101 - nothing is priced at its raw economic value, things are priced at the value the market will sustain. [snip] You seem to be saying you want better than DVD quality but only want to pay DVD prices.

Basically, yeah.

I mean, a couple of quid extra even my stingy ass will stump up. I guess ignorance would be bliss.

I've ordered Bourne Legacy for 2.19 by the way. Even with picture and sound off I'd be able to enjoy the value.

As for PS4K (this name is really growing on me), this is going to have extremely niche value until a lot more native content is available in 4K. I've had a Bravia X8 series 4K TV for almost two years and the best 4K video I've seen is stuff Sony supplied with the TV which was actually 4K 60fps footage of the last World Cup and which looks amazeballs. No 4K content I've seen since looks anywhere near as good, including Netflix. Even with H.265, ramping the resolution doesn't overcome the limited bandwidth.

That's a good point. The 4K stuff I've seen (for example 4K Christmas fireplace on Netflix) has underwhelmed me, likely because I got too close and because the content wasn't up to the standard of the display.

Inevitably picture resolution will increase but I think 4K is the new 3D. It's interesting, niche and even quite good when the technology is implemented well, but I can't see 4K being the next technology cornerstone around which a new standard is anchored like VHS, DVD and Blu-ray. Extensions of what we have now, but nothing earth-shattering. But again, where is the content? So, as I said earlier, I can't see Sony developing a second SKU for 4K video. But adding 4K to new PS4 builds? Sure, why not. H.265 licence aside its probably virtually cost free with the next board redesign.

3D I quite like, even though I have to wear glasses over my glasses. Gravity is particularly fun in 3D. Weirdly, I've been less angsty about paying for 3D ...

I'd assume Sony would look to supersede PS4 with PS4K to capitalise on volume and to try and drive sales (of both 4K movies and TVs) but that would require the drive and H.265 to be almost "cost free" beyond the current setup. Which you seem to think it will be, so that could work out okay.

Likely not. The new Ultra HD (Blu-ray 4K) standard had adopted a new a tri-layer format which are 33.3Gb/layer (compared to 25Gb/layer for Blu-ray) but only Dual (66.6Gb) and Tri-layer (100Gb) discs are formally supported. Presumably this means the layers are encoded differently so whether an existing Blu-ray drive can read an Ultra HD disc would, I guess, depend on the drive (and whether it can be reprogrammed) and the disc itself.

But if any drives and controllers were designed with this in mind it was probably the consoles.

Right. So that probably scuppers that idea then.

Is the increase in capacity due to increased pit density or winding the tracks more closely? Increased density would be good for future systems - anything to mitigate increases in install times would be good.

 

[Michellstar]

I'm not sure you can push clocks far enough to drive 4K pixels. Maybe they could get 50% more clock, but they have 4x the pixels at 4K.

Bandwidth would also have to increase substantially.

Yes i know, i don't buy for a second a true 4k console that early.

We would be talking fiji flops on a soc in 2016. What speed of GDRR5 would it need?. HBM2 is expected at years end at minimum and just for big gpus titan and so on. Also such a chip would had been taped by now, no way

I think we will get a 4k just for video, with Hdmi 2 and the Vr auxiliary chip integrated, thats it

 

[trainplane]

AMD probabaly can't hit 4K without compromised graphics even in 2017 with Poralis tech for $400. But I don't think MS or Sony should actually shoot for $400 but instead $500. They should sell these .5 consoles as the higher end and keep the original as the standards. Then as prices decrease, the .5 consoles will be the standard.

MS and Sony can release new consoles for every major GPU architecture change, which happens about every 4 years.

 

[DieH@rd]

Same CPU to maintain same baseline? Same CPU but higher clocks? Steamloller? Zen?

I think they will stick to very similar architectures, just a newer versions of what is in launch PS4. Jaguar [Kabini & Temash] successor was Puma [Mullins & Beema]. They had ~20% better overall performance and lower perf/watt.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=809815

2015 successor to Beema is Carrizo-L 12-25watt APU which has Puma+ cores [all still 28nm]. I don't know how that benches.
http://techreport.com/news/27392/am...-2015-will-share-package-with-beema-successor
http://www.anandtech.com/show/9246/amds-carrizo-l-apus-unveiled-12-25w-quad-core-puma


Exact plans for 14nm mobile APUs are unknown as of yet
http://wccftech.com/amd-zen-architecture-release-schedule-revealed-rolled-server-market/


edit - there is also this roadmap for ~netbook range APUs that mentions Zen APU that has integrated support for a single HBM1 stack [128GB/s]. Xbone and PS4 have Kaveri architecture shown below [with Onion+].

 

[Nisaaru]

It's an issue of dev time. What developers are going to want to spend resources patching an old game people own to run at 4k on the new PS4k? Sony would likely make their first party titles 4kable, but 3rd parties may not see much value. I guess it depends if they think they can sell more content as a result. A cheap patch and cheap 4k release to people who never bought the original may be an option.

I see nothing wrong in trying to extend the "shelf" life of games for companies which is made even easier these days with digital vs. physical. Having a small team internal or external maintaining the portfolio of a company would be smart business decision. Imagine movie companies would have cared about theirs as despicable as game companies.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I see nothing wrong in trying to extend the "shelf" life of games for companies which is made even easier these days with digital vs. physical. Having a small team internal or external maintaining the portfolio of a company would be smart business decision. Imagine movie companies would have cared about theirs as despicable as game companies.

Movies have no update costs, other than reworking for BRD/streaming which is often miniscule and even then, only ued for major new releases. How much of the back catalogue of the movie industry can you get on BRD? There's no point in investing even only a few thousand when the sales just won't be there. And that's for a product you'll resell. What we're talking about here is companies spending to improve games for existing owners, so zero revenue. Only if the patches were sold as a PS4.5 upgrade would there be a direct ROI.

 

[Nesh]

I am pretty sure the PS4K will be nothing more than a console that can send 4k signal and play 4k movies.

 

[Nisaaru]

Movies have no update costs, other than reworking for BRD/streaming which is often miniscule and even then, only ued for major new releases. How much of the back catalogue of the movie industry can you get on BRD? There's no point in investing even only a few thousand when the sales just won't be there. And that's for a product you'll resell. What we're talking about here is companies spending to improve games for existing owners, so zero revenue. Only if the patches were sold as a PS4.5 upgrade would there be a direct ROI.

About movies, it surely cost them to maintain the movie rolls over the decades which required a level of foresight the game industry still seems to lack, transferring them to digital and then pre finance remasters/recuts/extra content for special edition and repackaging.

I've never argued about no costs for some 4k "uplift" nor do I consider games in 4K relevant in the next few years. That wasn't really my point.

Like movies and music don't we all appreciate/associate/remember games we enjoyed during our lifetime? It's up to the game industry trying to make a profit from their portfolio to some degree.

 

[DieH@rd]

Patrick Klepek [who broke the PS4.5 news on Kotaku] in Q&A twitch stream, talking about his article
https://www.twitch.tv/patrickklepek/v/55620319?t=18m46s

"There is hardware being built. There are test kits being built. There is documentation that exists talking about these machines."

 

[function]

Well, that would seem to indicate it being Jaguar (or Puma) based. No Zen, then. Might be able to rule out GDDRX5 too.

And unless someone's done the work to shrink Jaguar, could that mean 28 nm again? And would that rule out Polaris and indicate GCN again?

Edit: At the conservative end of the "upgrade" spectrum, if we were to assume Jaguar/Puma, and that that means 28nm, a possible system might be:

- slightly modified basic chip
- save some power on CPU (Puma more power efficient Jaguar)
- 28 very mature, so ship with all CUs enabled now
- bin for slightly higher clocks, say 10 ~ 20% on both CPU and GPU
- no longer clamshell memory, so can run memory clocks higher - 6 ~ 7 gHz
- fits existing mobo, cooler, power supply etc with minimal redesign.
- new HDMI and 4K BR drive.
- PSVR ports built in, so doesn't require splitter box

So like a PS4, only slightly higher clocks on everything and two additional CUs. Minimal additional costs beyond current PS4, but a little better for VR and for constructing / building a 4K image from current frame buffers.

Mu mu mu multi-edit: launch around the same time as PSVR, reveal around E3 time.