Feasibility of an upgradeable or forwards compatible console *spawn*

I posted this idea elsewhere, but it seems to make sense:

In 2015, a virtual 'Durango II' is released.
- if you own a Durango, then you can simply play games on a Durango II via the web. There's moderate/high latency, and high bandwidth requirements. The cost is a monthly subscription fee.
- alternatively, you can buy a 'Durango II LAN box'. It costs $150, and has an internal harddisk but no interfaces except an ethernet port. You connect it to the network, and it works exactly the same as the web version - but it's lower latency and has no bandwidth requirements. You install local games by putting the blu-ray in the Durango and the contents are copied over the network (or download games from the xbox network).

The Wii-U manages to do something similar with very low latency, despite lacking performance.

For a latency-obsessed 'upgrader' the cost is lower.
For someone who isn't bothered by latency (or a new user) the cost is a subscription.

For the console manufacturer, the original console will be produced in large quantities, dropping costs... whilst the "booster" boxes, will be much simpler to produce and could be sold at a profit.
 
Then the side benefit of the locked down hardware was you could really get more out of it than a shifting hardware base. Which turned out to be a very important part of the console world since we got some games that would have been impossible without this side benefit. And it added to the life span of the consoles.
Yep.

Maybe i am wrong, but from reading these forums for years it's my impression that developers will go through fire to get the best out of every corner of the hardware they are targeting...
Yes and no. In the past they did, and enjoyed it. There was a rewarding challenge in extracting performance from the old 8 and 16 bit systems. But as technology has progressed, complexity has increased exponentially, and the cost of developing just a working title, let alone extracting optimised performance, is massive and only growing. And bare in mind that's not just cost in $, but in effort. If you want to create a particular game, you'll have a lot more fun on a limitlessly powerful system where you can just iterate ideas than on a small, limited box where you have to carefully manage what you do and keep hitting walls in the way. We've heard it here plenty of times from people of devs that wrestling with code isn't popular any more. Devs want easy development. We even see that in the change of hardware to make everything easy. Custom, uber-powerful hardware is out in favour of hardware devs can use without giving themselves a breakdown! ;)
Something that seems impossible with a shifting target. The we add a "thin layered api" and we can all see how that works, powerful PC's which should be magnitudes better than console doesn't really show it in the games.
The lack of far better games on PC than its capable of is due to market dynamics. They are somewhat tied to what the consoles are doing, and ancient consoles are setting a low bar. Upgraded consoles or short console lifespans would see much better progress in the PC space. The loss of the consoles altogether would see the PC space become self-regulatory, with devs targeting a spec that has enough install base of software-buying gamers to justify the degree of investment the devs want to put in to realise their vision. Competition between developers will ensure software progress. See the likes of Battlefield for an investment in an engine that helps differentiate the game from other shooters.

Sony on the other hand will have a machine that will last at least 2 years as the undisputed king, and when developers are starting to get to grips with the 720 V1 there is a 720 V2 that soon should be released and it will need new games to show it's power. Where do i put my development money? On V1 , can i expect all the V1 owners to upgrade to V2?
V2 will, be the same as V1, playing the same games as PS4, only where v1 plays the games at a dodgy 25-30 fps, and PS4 plays them at a rock solid 30 fps with better AA, V2 will play them at 60 fps. As a consumer in 2015, you can choose to buy the cheapo V1, or the more expensive V2, but either way you can take your games with you to V3 and V4. If you buy PS4, you get a fixed box with fixed games that'll gradually look older and older, wait for PS5 when you want a better experience, and then at some point you have to say farewell to that software investment to buy PS5.

Different people will have different desires, but a well managed progressive platform will cater for more tastes than isolated boxes.

[quote[A publisher will be seeing a constantly fragmenting market where they want to sell my games, within 8 years i would have 4 generations spread over 60 millions consoles (if we go by current standards). A market that i wont be able to make ONE game for[/quote]But you can! You make the basic game for V1 and add extras for V2, V3 and V4. Or you drop V1 because it's too old and target only V2, 3, 4. Or if you're really ambitious and think your game has a lot of appeal, you can target V3 and 4 only, losing 40 million potential customers but increasing interest of the remaining 40 million from 5% to 35% because your game is really making a difference by targeting the better hardware.

Sony on the other hand will have one market to target with their console and for every year that goes the developers will have learned to squeeze even more out of the hardware.
There's only so much you can squeeze. No matter how long devs have with PS3, it won't look better than PS4. If we afford a generous 2 year advantage to closed-box development, that means PS4 will be matched by another similarly priced machine at launch+2 years, and be eclipsed at launch+4 years, and be an old dog at launch+6 years.

If we look at myself as an example, I would rather play Borderlands and Trine 2 at 60fps with high IQ. My PS3 can't hack it. Thus I consider PC, but that has a very high cost of entry. If Sony released a £200 PS3+, I'd probably buy it. Other consumers will respond differently, but it's clear across fora that plenty of gamers have tired of out-dated games consoles and are eager for something new. A progressive platform would be supporting that desire.
 
The lack of far better games on PC than its capable of is due to market dynamics. They are somewhat tied to what the consoles are doing, and ancient consoles are setting a low bar. Upgraded consoles or short console lifespans would see much better progress in the PC space. The loss of the consoles altogether would see the PC space become self-regulatory, with devs targeting a spec that has enough install base of software-buying gamers to justify the degree of investment the devs want to put in to realise their vision. Competition between developers will ensure software progress. See the likes of Battlefield for an investment in an engine that helps differentiate the game from other shooters.

A more rapidly changing market IMO would favour consoles because more frequent upgrading would encourage marginal PC gamers to drop out of that market in favour of a simpler existence with consoles. It would also enable more control and accessory innovation which PC's struggle with given the open nature of the platform and the relatively static control medium.
 
3 yr refresh, with consoles no more than $400. And that 3rd year console better have at least 4TF+ and devs taking advantage of it right away. I think I'd be ok with that.

But a tighter more constant refreshing model opens the door for getting overcharged on hw and stringing along consumers looking for a graphics upgrade. If the prices are reasonable, I'd be ok with it. But if not, I'll stick to upgrading my PC where cost/performance would probably be a lot better.

So far I only see the buck being pushed back to the consumer right now. For example, 1.2TF by 2014 for $400? No thanks. It all depends on the price. That's great that it'll ease the pain on manufacturers and developers with more profit for them and an easier API. But let's see how nice they play to consumers under this model.
 
It still doesnt make sense to me, when do they decide to stop supporting the first console and if they do does that cancel out the next three so called upgrades? If it doesnt you stuck with the pc model of having monster hardware that cost a fortune so you can run a higher resolution and frame rate. Or do you guys think this upcoming generation games are going to look like the last of us with better resolution and better framerate?
I dont, I think there will be a massive step up.
 
Going back to the leaked timelines, I think it was MSnerd, there an XBOX PU (product update) in 2014. here is the list from Nov-11
This is a little something about Microsoft’s 2012 through 2014 platform plan. As always Microsoft and I are equally unreliable.

—-

CES 2012
Win8 + WinStore beta
<ONM> CTP
Tango1 launch

MWC 2012
Tango2 SDK

MIX 2012
Win8 RC
<ONM> beta
Tango2 launch + Apollo announce
Kinect commercial SDK

E3 2012
Xbox SDK, 3G Kinect games announce
Apollo SDK
Win8 RTM

Aug 2012
Win8, <ONM>, WP8, Xbox Store launch

Build 2012
XAML+XDE platform
Win8 PU DP
<OSN> announce

CES 2013
Win8 PU Beta

MWC 2013
Apollo+1 teaser

MIX 2013
HTML platform (IE11)
Win8 PU RC
<OSN> Beta
Apollo+1 SDK

E3 2013
Xbox”loop” announce
Win8 PU RTM

Build 2013
Win9 DP
<OSN> RTM
Xbox”loop” launch

CES 2014
Win9 Beta

MWC 2014
WPN teaser

MIX 2014
Win9 RC
WPN SDK
Kinect SDK update

E3 2014
Kinect HP2 announce
Xbox PU announce

Build 2014
Win9 RTM (IE12)
Win9M RTM
<OSN+1> CTP
Xbox PU preview

Nov 2014
Win9, Win9M, Kinect HP2 launch
Xbox PU RTW

Now things may have changed since then, but maybe we get the $299 version this year and 2014 version with all of the massive tech improvements expected next year.
 
Yep.

Yes and no. In the past they did, and enjoyed it. There was a rewarding challenge in extracting performance from the old 8 and 16 bit systems. But as technology has progressed, complexity has increased exponentially, and the cost of developing just a working title, let alone extracting optimised performance, is massive and only growing. And bare in mind that's not just cost in $, but in effort. If you want to create a particular game, you'll have a lot more fun on a limitlessly powerful system where you can just iterate ideas than on a small, limited box where you have to carefully manage what you do and keep hitting walls in the way. We've heard it here plenty of times from people of devs that wrestling with code isn't popular any more. Devs want easy development. We even see that in the change of hardware to make everything easy. Custom, uber-powerful hardware is out in favour of hardware devs can use without giving themselves a breakdown! ;)

I am on the easy to develop for boat, but even if this is true i find it hard to believe that there isn't a difference between having developed for the same console for X years. The evidence is the consoles we have now, and even if they are more exotic than the next generation i am pretty sure the same thing will come true for the next generation. There is no first year release that can compare to the 4th year, developers will gain knowledge for every release. In the case of V1,V2,V4 and V4 unless it's very basic speed bumps there will be considerable new things to learn on the way. I am not saying it will make the games look ugly, just saying that the potential of the hardware wont be used to the same extent as it does now, there will be a overhead.

The lack of far better games on PC than its capable of is due to market dynamics. They are somewhat tied to what the consoles are doing, and ancient consoles are setting a low bar.
Pure PC titles like MMO's just doesn't confirm that, games that are designed to only run on PC's does look great, but they still doesn't look they should with the monster that is driving them. However MMO's does tend to be developed with weaker configs in mind as well. As i said in a earlier post, targeting a lower spec hurts higher spec machine, imho. Which will be the case if V1 is supposed to run V2

V2 will, be the same as V1, playing the same games as PS4, only where v1 plays the games at a dodgy 25-30 fps, and PS4 plays them at a rock solid 30 fps with better AA, V2 will play them at 60 fps. As a consumer in 2015, you can choose to buy the cheapo V1, or the more expensive V2, but either way you can take your games with you to V3 and V4. If you buy PS4, you get a fixed box with fixed games that'll gradually look older and older, wait for PS5 when you want a better experience, and then at some point you have to say farewell to that software investment to buy PS5.

Yes PS4 games should be able to run on all versions since they are designed with that spec in mind, V2,V3 and V4 may be faster, but as we saw on the PC, the lowest common denominator hurts everything when the max size is a DVD and the maximum performance is limited by a RSX and a Spilt memory pool. In short, the gains will not be as big as they could except for the exclusive games. And even those will be limited on what V you target.

You make the basic game for V1 and add extras for V2, V3 and V4. Or you drop V1 because it's too old and target only V2, 3, 4. Or if you're really ambitious and think your game has a lot of appeal, you can target V3 and 4 only, losing 40 million potential customers but increasing interest of the remaining 40 million from 5% to 35% because your game is really making a difference by targeting the better hardware.

Translation, you limit your game design to V1, the other versions will be brushed up versions that look better, run at higher res with higher framerate. But the basic limitation of the game will be V1.
The limitation can be anything from map size in FPS games to read speed from the local disk, input devices, how much you can do with the kinnect and the current hardware. After 6 years you could in principle have a PS2(V1) design run on a PS3(V3) with souped up grapichs.

As i said i may be one of those that could by into a console like this, but i am really finding it hard to see the market for a publisher. There is no doubt in my mind that every game developed would have to target as many consoles as possible. Limiting your market to for example 25% (V3,V4 and no PS4) just doesn't make sense with the stories we have been told around here. The development costs is creating content and assets for the ever growing size of games and then limiting your market afterwards?

And then there is the consumers that doesn't hang out on the Beyond3D Console forums, if they enter a shop 2 years after they bought their console and see some games are only V3 they will be angered.

Imho, a more traditional console refresh every 5-6 years would do more to help the problem, with backwards compatible in mind so that buyers didn't felt left out. But the problem with earlier refreshes could be smaller user bases for the publishers, the same problem as a ever refreshing platform.

Fascinating, i would buy it but can't really convinced it's a good idea from a market perspective and i am doubtful about the gains in games quality. But even smaller gains could be enough for me, afterall i buy new hardware for my PC :)
 
Yeah, I definitely won't be extolling the greatness of the upgradable strategy until they demonstrate it's going to be better for everyone in graphics and price to consumers.

Now things may have changed since then, but maybe we get the $299 version this year and 2014 version with all of the massive tech improvements expected next year.

If it's true and unannounced at this E3, that would be absolutely horrible for launch buyers. 1 year later refresh? Really? Will def wait until post e3 2014 before jumping in.
 
Yeah, I definitely won't be extolling the greatness of the upgradable strategy until they demonstrate it's going to be better for everyone in graphics and price to consumers.
It's unlikely to be better in both. Wanting better graphics and paying less for that is unrealistic. And it may not bring either, but it does bring an 'everlasting' software library and the option for consumers to upgrade if they feel the added expensive is worth the investment, and portability between devices (console, PC, tablet). That could be worth the 10-30% drop in hardware utilisation (or whatever it is) that going fat AP brings.
 
Yeah, I definitely won't be extolling the greatness of the upgradable strategy until they demonstrate it's going to be better for everyone in graphics and price to consumers.



If it's true and unannounced at this E3, that would be absolutely horrible for launch buyers. 1 year later refresh? Really? Will def wait until post e3 2014 before jumping in.

I think in this case, they are more like different products. Loop is the set-top box / arcade machine and 14 would bring the 720. Given the recent spec leaks, that doesn't seem too likely, but you never know. One thing that I always found odd, is the 2013 is worst possible year to release a new box. Either 12 or 14 would have been significantly better. Given leaked specs, MS should have released in 2012.
 
It's unlikely to be better in both. Wanting better graphics and paying less for that is unrealistic. And it may not bring either, but it does bring an 'everlasting' software library and the option for consumers to upgrade if they feel the added expensive is worth the investment, and portability between devices (console, PC, tablet). That could be worth the 10-30% drop in hardware utilisation (or whatever it is) that going fat AP brings.

Then staying with PC is the most logical choice for all of us tech enthusiasts here. Upgrade whenever and for however much we want to spend, and we can outpace consoles no problem since we don't need to stay under 200w. When BF3 came out I upgraded my GPU for $150 and played at ultra quality. Now if Halo 5 comes out day and date with a new Xbox 3.1 in 2014, and exclusive for one year I have to cough up another $3-400 to see what I would hope is a marked difference? Sounds like holding out graphics upgrade for hostage to me. I will always out tech them for cheaper, even with a fatter than console AP on PC.

That was the main benefit of consoles. Subsidised hardware for decent prices and devs that coded to the metal. They take the hit and do the work. A switch to the upgradeable model pushes the buck on to the consumer that's seeking the graphical upgrades he wants. That's why I don't think it's the perfect solution, especially not for us hardware enthusiasts.

Like I said before, we wouldn't need to debate how this scenario could be so much better if console makers manned up and released 2.5TF+ consoles by the end of this year at closer to 200w TDP and not 100w TDP like we're on track to. That would surely tide us over for 3-4 years without any hostage taking possibilities. Release another box by then that's double the power. I'm fine with that. Keep the constant upgrading to PC where I have full choice in what to customize.

I think in this case, they are more like different products. Loop is the set-top box / arcade machine and 14 would bring the 720. Given the recent spec leaks, that doesn't seem too likely, but you never know. One thing that I always found odd, is the 2013 is worst possible year to release a new box. Either 12 or 14 would have been significantly better. Given leaked specs, MS should have released in 2012.

Would've been fine if they met somewhere in the middle actually! Like I said above. Otherwise I'll just wait for 2014 then.
 
As long as you have a contiguous library with forward and backward compatibility the higher end sku will be targeted by triple AAA titles with insurances that the titles plays well with lower skus.

Targeting of the lowest denominator is an affect of trying to service the marketplace across multiple libraries requiring multiple ports and that lowest denominator being the dominant market. Thats not necessarily true for MMOs and thats mostly because devs priorities are different with network performance, diversity and quantity of art taking precedence over things like visuals. MMOs need vast support to be profitable.

However, when the PC maintained its own significant core of developers and pubs who catered to only PC gamers, the higher end gpus were always the top target for AAA titles. And that was an environment that was littered with 1000s of configurations with a vast majority of the userbase on mid to low configs.

Why? Just because you might have a lower end sku doesn't mean you are unaffected by the marketing of visuals thats capable on higher end skus. And visuals are the most marketable aspect of gaming.

Lowest common denominator will affect the higher end skus but that motivations will be dictated by the specs of the competitor's console and it's popularity and not by the demographics of the multi-tiered hardware.
 
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One question though with respect to code based on standard api with compatibility on different devices: is this automatically connected with overhead?

I figure the idea is you use the standard api as much as possible, then you compile the Durango version to get that binary. To port it to pc you compile a separate binary with the pc version of the api library. So it's not automatically handled, you do have to compile separate versions, but the api saves you from having to rewrite all your hardware specific code. So like the Durango version of the api library would use it's move engines behind the scenes whereas the pc version wouldn't, each library gets tuned to the hardware.

For example I recently ported a simple Win8 pc/tablet game of mine to Windows Phone 8. I went with their standard library on the pc version specifically because I didn't want to re-write everything when I made future phone and console versions. When I got a WP8, I took all my code as is and recompiled it. About 5% didn't work so I added phone code chunks for parts of their api that isn't implemented on WP8 yet and that was it, I had the WP8 version. Looking ahead my hope is that there will be a Durango version of this same api and hence my now pc/tablet/phone games will all be easily ported over to Durango with little code change.

Another example using the phone world. I had a game on Windows Phone 7 that I wrote using their XNA library. I didn't write to the hardware at all, I just wrote to the api. At the same time there was another WP7 phone app out there called Spotify which was actually written direct to the phone hardware. Fast forward and WP8 came out. The Spotify app which was written to the hardware was not compatible with WP8, so everyone had to wait until they re-wrote it to support the new hardware. As for my WP7 game, because I made mine writing directly to their api it was able to run just fine on WP8 without me doing anything, so it was available on the WP8 store on day 1.

Yeah lots of speculation going on, and I don't expect that the api will be 100% compatible across devices right away, there will probably still be some pieces that have to be tweaked when moving to a different device. But forward compatibility should be so much easier this way. In many respects this already happens. Game are coded in C++ which is effectively an api. When you use a printf() on a Sony machine, you don't re-code that printf() on a Microsoft machine. Instead you write to the printf() api and the library handles the hardware crap in the background transparently to you. They can extend that idea to encompass more of the game code than just the basics.


Is it still possible to get down to the metal and use all the juice with such a strategy?

That's totally up to Microsoft, they can allow it or forbid it. Personally I'd forbid it but that's me, I'm looking more at the big picture where short term to the metal gain gives long term pain. I liken it to the old discussions of should we code in C or assembly language. Yeah assembly language for ages was faster, but as projects and hardware got more complex eventually there were just far more benefits to losing assembly's to the metal approach and just going with C.


Or is going to the metal exactly what you don't want any more, as it is to hardware specific and thus difficult to carry over to other platforms and difficult to make profit with?

Yeah all to the metal code has to be re-written for the new metal. It made sense for many years, I just don't think so anymore.
 
Then staying with PC is the most logical choice for all of us tech enthusiasts here. Upgrade whenever and for however much we want to spend, and we can outpace consoles no problem since we don't need to stay under 200w. When BF3 came out I upgraded my GPU for $150 and played at ultra quality. Now if Halo 5 comes out day and date with a new Xbox 3.1 in 2014, and exclusive for one year I have to cough up another $3-400 to see what I would hope is a marked difference? Sounds like holding out graphics upgrade for hostage to me. I will always out tech them for cheaper, even with a fatter than console AP on PC.

That was the main benefit of consoles. Subsidised hardware for decent prices and devs that coded to the metal. They take the hit and do the work. A switch to the upgradeable model pushes the buck on to the consumer that's seeking the graphical upgrades he wants. That's why I don't think it's the perfect solution, especially not for us hardware enthusiasts.

Like I said before, we wouldn't need to debate how this scenario could be so much better if console makers manned up and released 2.5TF+ consoles by the end of this year at closer to 200w TDP and not 100w TDP like we're on track to. That would surely tide us over for 3-4 years without any hostage taking possibilities. Release another box by then that's double the power. I'm fine with that. Keep the constant upgrading to PC where I have full choice in what to customize.



Would've been fine if they met somewhere in the middle actually! Like I said above. Otherwise I'll just wait for 2014 then.
Coding to the metal has little ROI. Whatever blood and sweat is squeezed out of a specific hardware is small compared advancement in hardware. Plus lot of the advancements in software graphics are art and technique anyway.

Also, people who buy V1 of an upgradable console are not locked out when the new one comes. Just because a V2 comes out in 2-3 years does not mean the V1 machine got weaker. Devs should target 3 generations of a console family. Only those with tech envy need to upgrade. See iPad. They are releasing these things every 6 months now and yet people buy them anyway knowing a new one is coming in a few months.

None of the skeptics have yet addressed the big problems with the generation model brought up several times in this thread.

1. Every generation starts with 0 user based. See problems with Vita and Wii U software.

2. Because of 1, developers and manufacturers want generations to stretch really long being a tech dinosaur in 7 years. With shorter cycles, we'd probably see Battlefield 4 PC on a console.
 
People keep using the ipad as an example. Which iPad games add effects or features for the newest iPad and still support the first iPad? Mostly you're getting software targeted at ipad1 and it just runs better on iPad 4 because it's faster and has a higher resolution display.

On the phone side of iOS, 3 year old hardware has already been orphaned for many new apps. Not exactly shining examples of the greatness of forward compatibility.
 
People keep using the ipad as an example. Which iPad games add effects or features for the newest iPad and still support the first iPad? Mostly you're getting software targeted at ipad1 and it just runs better on iPad 4 because it's faster and has a higher resolution display.

On the phone side of iOS, 3 year old hardware has already been orphaned for many new apps. Not exactly shining examples of the greatness of forward compatibility.

What's worse is that on mobile platforms, it's clear that spending more money doesn't guarantee you more sales. When the most popular game for 3 years straight is Angry Birds, a 2D game that would probably run on the original iPhone if it weren't for Apple raising the minimum OS to be compiled against, there is absolutely zero incentive to ever take advantage of the faster hardware inside the iPhone 5. In fact, when the iPad 4 came out, despite the GPU being 2x faster than the iPad 3, pretty much the only thing the developers of Infinity Blade II did was raise the resolution to native instead of upscaling: http://www.anandtech.com/show/6472/ipad-4-late-2012-review/5
 
Coding to the metal has little ROI. Whatever blood and sweat is squeezed out of a specific hardware is small compared advancement in hardware. Plus lot of the advancements in software graphics are art and technique anyway.

Coding to the metal (or at least closer than PC) has great ROI, for me. Are we really rooting on manufacturers for ways to milk more money out of us with constant upgrade models?

Let's be honest here, this is about upgrading for enthusiasts. 150+ mil 2005 era consoles are on track to be sold and casuals still look at the latest COD and go wow at those graphics. They just need a big push with a spec bump at start of a gen and then a steady stream of games.

I agree with the benefits of forwards compatibility in generational transition. But not if used for excuses of constant refreshes every 2 years. I don't care if my old console can still play the latest games at low settings, I want HQ. But then I'd be trapped in their constant refresh model. And it's already been established that casuals don't care about this aspect... they are easily impressed.

Release 2 more iterations over the next 8 years, that's fine. Use a fatter API. The powerful set top box era will be done by then. They should release 2.5 and 5TF machines and be done with it. But extra fat API and 1.2TF machine? And then 2.4TF? And then 5TF..? And then yearly subs and still $400 hardware each time? PC can tide me over for my upgrade bug til 2020, thanks.
 
People keep using the ipad as an example. Which iPad games add effects or features for the newest iPad and still support the first iPad? Mostly you're getting software targeted at ipad1 and it just runs better on iPad 4 because it's faster and has a higher resolution display.

On the phone side of iOS, 3 year old hardware has already been orphaned for many new apps. Not exactly shining examples of the greatness of forward compatibility.
Comparison to iPad as an example of consumers willing to buy hardware knowing it will be updated in 6 months? Yes. Comparison to iPad that hardware can be upgraded and compatible and not cost billions in R&D? Yes. Comparison to iPad that devs are targeting the higher platform? No. Not every aspect of the iPad is like a console. It does show some things about how the market works in a way that we didn't think possible. In 2005 the idea of a cross compatible, short cycle consoles wouldn't enter our minds, but in 2013, after seeing how the market accepts the iPad and Android tablets, it's no longer crazy.
 
Coding to the metal (or at least closer than PC) has great ROI, for me. Are we really rooting on manufacturers for ways to milk more money out of us with constant upgrade models?
ROI for the market. Dev costs vs how much more it will sell for coding to the metal.
Bagel seed said:
Let's be honest here, this is about upgrading for enthusiasts. 150+ mil 2005 era consoles are on track to be sold and casuals still look at the latest COD and go wow at those graphics. They just need a big push with a spec bump at start of a gen and then a steady stream of games.

I agree with the benefits of forwards compatibility in generational transition. But not if used for excuses of constant refreshes every 2 years. I don't care if my old console can still play the latest games at low settings, I want HQ. But then I'd be trapped in their constant refresh model. And it's already been established that casuals don't care about this aspect... they are easily impressed.

Release 2 more iterations over the next 8 years, that's fine. Use a fatter API. The powerful set top box era will be done by then. They should release 2.5 and 5TF machines and be done with it. But extra fat API and 1.2TF machine? And then 2.4TF? And then 5TF..? And then yearly subs and still $400 hardware each time? PC can tide me over for my upgrade bug til 2020, thanks.
Problem is you won't get 2.5 TFLOPS class for $400 and even if you say you are willing to pay more, the market probably won't.

Whatever console you buy, the graphics will be the same. Your "low settings" four years later is the same setting it was when you bought it. It's only because you saw something better that you want it. If Xbox 540/PS 3.5 had come out in 2009, your games in Xbox 360/PS3 would still look the same as they do now.

It seems you're looking at this from you personal perspective. You have to realize the market perspective isn't the same. I'm not saying a 2 year upgrade is the right way but the system we have now (reset, long cylces) is kind of breaking and tablets and upstarts like Ouya are starting to make it look antiquated.
 
3 yr refresh, with consoles no more than $400. And that 3rd year console better have at least 4TF+ and devs taking advantage of it right away. I think I'd be ok with that.

But a tighter more constant refreshing model opens the door for getting overcharged on hw and stringing along consumers looking for a graphics upgrade. If the prices are reasonable, I'd be ok with it. But if not, I'll stick to upgrading my PC where cost/performance would probably be a lot better.

So far I only see the buck being pushed back to the consumer right now. For example, 1.2TF by 2014 for $400? No thanks. It all depends on the price. That's great that it'll ease the pain on manufacturers and developers with more profit for them and an easier API. But let's see how nice they play to consumers under this model.

So you going to choose to be tided over with hardware.

1. That relies on a hardware upgrade method that offends you when applied to consoles.

2. Doesn't code to the metal because it's games relies on being compatible with 100s different hardware configuration.

3. Doesn't come close to playing nice with consumers as the potential of any PC hardware config doesnt come close to being realized.

Good luck on hoping that any gpu you buy this year will even be supported by the majority of newly released PC games in 6-7 years.
 
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