Do you think there will be a mid gen refresh console from Sony and Microsoft?

[see colon]

Aha YOU created the pandemic, why? WHYYYY?????

We finally found the oranges.

 

[eastmen]

Zen 1 would not have been ready for 2016. Zen 1 CPUs weren't launched until 2017. The current Zen 2 based consoles were launched a year after Zen 2 itself was out. Not to mention DRAM and NAND costs at the time would have also implications on how much you could actually improve things in that aspect as well. As such it'd be questionable how much a better hardware wise an actual "new gen" console would have been than the PS4 Pro even if launched slightly later in 2017/2018. Which in turn would also mean it would arguably be rather under powered now if such a hypothetical machine launched.

Maybe not but 2017 would have been a better year to launch vs 2016 anyway. That is why the ps4 pro was a meh upgrade. The one x came out in 2017 with more ram than the pro. I think in terms of cpu a zen 1 based console would have been leaps and bounds better than a jaguar based console.

In terms of waiting for even more future hardware this isn't so straight forward. For a refresh console going with hardware that is too different from what exists brings additional complications in terms of software compatibility and optimization.

And yet its already a solved problem on the pc. But instead of hundreds or thousands of combinations of hardware you would have just a few.

Possible AI acceleration addons from a mid gen refresh could actually be rather efficient additions when weighed from a user experience stand point. The selling point for a PS5 Pro could be x2 frame generation and better upscaling to 4K and even 8K. RT implementations are also relatively more scalable for the games that did implement those. Another angle would be increased storage, with Sony specifically this is rather interesting because they don't directly sell a high margin storage addon that would conflict business wise.



We will have to see but current indications seem to point to that this generation may instead be on the longer side due to multiple factors including the disruption brought on my pandemic.

You'd only get that by breaking from what the previous gen consoles considered a refresh and then you'd be introducing new hardware into the mix. I'd say an upgrade to zen 4 and rdna 3 would be a decent refresh right now. Next year zen 5 with ai co processors and maybe rdna 4 could be a killer upgrade. I know you brought up that zen 2 based consoles were launched a year after zen 2. however on the flip side they launched rdna 2 at the same time as they did on the pc side. So I'm not sure if that lag time on the cpu side has to exist or just existed due to what these companies wanted.

As for this generation it could also go the other way. These consoles struggle to hit 4k natively and struggle with RT. It can be very disruptive if MS launches a console with all new hardware while sony just releases an upgraded ps5. Obviously if Ms could put out a 2024 console with zen 5 + ai co processors and rdna 4 + say step up to 24gigs of ram or 32 gigs of ram that would be a compelling system to not only play current xbox releases (because obviously they would run much better than series x could run them) but future titles could feature more RT effects , higher resolutions , more advanced AI.

I'd go one up and say that taking that same platform of a zen 5 + ai co processors + rdna 4 they'd be able to release a system that performs similar to the xbox series x at a cheaper price than the series x. Thus again hitting two price points with the same generation of hardware and then phase out the series s and x for sale. We already see based on Sony and Ms that currently we are starting the third year of the consoles and there has been very little exclusive content to this generation. The vast majority of games are cross generational. if we apply that to a 2024 console release then games that would take advantage of those games wouldn't start releasing until 2027. They might not even release until 2028. That would be a 7-8 year console life span. But based on last generation to this generation a new console wouldn't release until 2028ish anyway. You'd then have 3 years or more until any meaningful amount of games came out to take advantage of the console outside of resolution and frame rates. . By that point you'd be looking at 2031. With a rolling generation however you can have a release in 2020 , 2024 , 2028 , 2032 and so on. Each one based on new architecture like ai cores or more advanced forms or ray tracing and even frame construction and so on.

 

[Seanspeed]

As for this generation it could also go the other way. These consoles struggle to hit 4k natively and struggle with RT. It can be very disruptive if MS launches a console with all new hardware while sony just releases an upgraded ps5. Obviously if Ms could put out a 2024 console with zen 5 + ai co processors and rdna 4 + say step up to 24gigs of ram or 32 gigs of ram that would be a compelling system to not only play current xbox releases (because obviously they would run much better than series x could run them) but future titles could feature more RT effects , higher resolutions , more advanced AI.

I'd go one up and say that taking that same platform of a zen 5 + ai co processors + rdna 4 they'd be able to release a system that performs similar to the xbox series x at a cheaper price than the series x. Thus again hitting two price points with the same generation of hardware and then phase out the series s and x for sale. We already see based on Sony and Ms that currently we are starting the third year of the consoles and there has been very little exclusive content to this generation. The vast majority of games are cross generational. if we apply that to a 2024 console release then games that would take advantage of those games wouldn't start releasing until 2027. They might not even release until 2028. That would be a 7-8 year console life span. But based on last generation to this generation a new console wouldn't release until 2028ish anyway. You'd then have 3 years or more until any meaningful amount of games came out to take advantage of the console outside of resolution and frame rates. . By that point you'd be looking at 2031. With a rolling generation however you can have a release in 2020 , 2024 , 2028 , 2032 and so on. Each one based on new architecture like ai cores or more advanced forms or ray tracing and even frame construction and so on.

There's little more that would be done with a 'new gen' console in 2024 than a mid-gen refresh would be. They'd still be under all the same technology and cost restraints in either case, leading to very similar spec decisions.

There's no real distinction here. The whole point of a 'new gen' of hardware is that there's been sufficient technological process to make a worthwhile generational leap for games at a roughly similar price point as before. There would be nothing in 2024 that could achieve this.

And this ignores that you need a software cut-off to achieve a proper next gen experience as well. Next gen isn't just 'the same games as before, but with higher settings/resolution/framerate'. That's exactly what a mid gen refresh like PS4 Pro and XB1X were. A new gen provides a more fundamental leap for developers to target as a baseline, which means cutting off running the game on older consoles. This is how you get games that truly distinguish themselves from the generation before.

Or to put it another way - Cyberpunk 2077 at native 4k with full ray tracing at 120fps requires an insane level of hardware, yet there will be games built for XSX/PS5 that will be more technically impressive because they are built for a higher baseline target. Or another example - Uncharted 4 on PS4 will still look more impressive than Bioshock running at even native 16k.

Generations matter. They are the fuel that drives games to be ever more ambitious and impressive. What you're suggesting is getting rid of them in favor of incremental progress on the same level of experiences we already have.

 

[eastmen]

There's little more that would be done with a 'new gen' console in 2024 than a mid-gen refresh would be. They'd still be under all the same technology and cost restraints in either case, leading to very similar spec decisions.

There's no real distinction here. The whole point of a 'new gen' of hardware is that there's been sufficient technological process to make a worthwhile generational leap for games at a roughly similar price point as before. There would be nothing in 2024 that could achieve this.

I have to disagree. If we are talking about refreshes like last generation you would looking at another zen 2 based ps5/xbox and rdna 2ish . A 2024 new console would likely be based on zen 4 or 5 along with rdna 4. The gains from Zen 2 to Zen 4 are already massive. If they were to go with a 3d cache version performance would increase even more and that is again before ai cores or zen 5 which could exist in a 2024 console.

When looking at RDNA 2 to RDNA 3 even with the lack luster performance rdna 3 is still more performant. Whats more leaks of road maps and rumors are pointing to 2024 for it also.

Are you still going with there being no real distinction there ? You think a faster clocked zen2 + faster clocked rdna 2 and 16 gigs of ram will out perform zen5+ rdna 4 with more ram ? You also think its better for gamers to buy such a system over the new hardware ?

And this ignores that you need a software cut-off to achieve a proper next gen experience as well. Next gen isn't just 'the same games as before, but with higher settings/resolution/framerate'. That's exactly what a mid gen refresh like PS4 Pro and XB1X were. A new gen provides a more fundamental leap for developers to target as a baseline, which means cutting off running the game on older consoles. This is how you get games that truly distinguish themselves from the generation before.

Next gen is the same gaems with higher settings / resolution / framerate. Those are all key parts of a new generation of hardware. I was able to play Virtua Fighter on my genesis and on my 32x and on my sega saturn. Hell Sony has Last of US ps3 , last of us remake ps4 and last of us remake ps5 .

So what can the ps5 do that the ps4 can't do ? What could you do on a ps6 in 2026 vs a ps6 made in 2024 ?

Or to put it another way - Cyberpunk 2077 at native 4k with full ray tracing at 120fps requires an insane level of hardware, yet there will be games built for XSX/PS5 that will be more technically impressive because they are built for a higher baseline target. Or another example - Uncharted 4 on PS4 will still look more impressive than Bioshock running at even native 16k.

Generations matter. They are the fuel that drives games to be ever more ambitious and impressive. What you're suggesting is getting rid of them in favor of incremental progress on the same level of experiences we already have.

Uncharted may look better on a ps4 than a 16k bioshock but uncharted 4 will never be as good of a game as bioshock. The quality of the game isn't dependent on its graphics. Also there would have been nothing stopping sony from putting the prior generation of hardware . Are people not enjoying the current playstation 5 games because they were released on ps4 ? It god of war bad because its both on ps4 and ps5 ?

Like I said Last generation was release in 2013 refreshes were 2016 to 2017 and a new generation in 2020. The last refreshes were literally just faster versions of the original releases with some enhancements. They were never really taken care of. Fast forward to 2020 and now 2023 and people are complaining that these new consoles don't have games taking advantage of them. Sony sprouted some nonsense about generations matter but they have only released 3 first party titles that are only on ps5 I believe and one of them was basicly a tech demo for the new controller .

What I am saying is instead of a refresh in 2016-2017 (Or now in 2023- 2024) it would be better to just actually put in all new hardware. You are still going to have a delay of when hardware is taken advantage of. This isn't the atari days where games coudl be made in 2-3 months. the delay will only get longer not shorter. People are going to want games that look better and better each generation . Those are going to take more and more time.

So why wait 7 years before you make the transition to new hardware. With brand new hardware in 2024 as I've been saying those games that take 3 , 4 ,5 + years to make can start development with that new 2024 hardware. So they can take advantage of say zen 5 + ai cores + rdna 4. Then in 2027 you get those games starting to release that take advantage of that hardware . You can still get new hardware in 2027 that will play those games even better and have newer hardware that will get taken advantage of in 3+ years.

Last generation when the refreshed consoles came out developers still had another 3-4 years before next gen consoles released. So all those games in the middle of the generation targeted those original boxes .

That is the broken part of generations and its not needed. You aren't going from a 9 chip sega saturn to completely new hardware on a 2 chip dreamcast or from the complex ps2 hardware to the also completely different but equally complex ps3.

 

[JPT]

How much does it cost to make a new console? Have MS or Sony recouped the R&D cost of the current gen yet?
If not, why pile on extra cost of releasing a mid gen refresh or a "new gen", unless you are guaranteed to recoup the cost of current and mid/new gen quicker than just sticking with current gen. Did either of them actually see higher earnings based on the refresh consoles last gen? I thought the sales of those was quite lackluster, at least the ps 4pro.

Basically will either of them earn more money faster? If not, why bother? Unless they expect to blow the competitor and out of the water and end up as the only console in the high end segment?

 

[Inuhanyou]

It's just not worth it. Series x is already the strongest console in the market and ps5 is no slouch. There is more to focus on than stronger hardware and that is software to drive engagement.

 

[see colon]

So what can the ps5 do that the ps4 can't do ?

Browse the internet.


Oh wait, I got that backwards.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Browse the internet.


Oh wait, I got that backwards.

 

[eastmen]

How much does it cost to make a new console? Have MS or Sony recouped the R&D cost of the current gen yet?
If not, why pile on extra cost of releasing a mid gen refresh or a "new gen", unless you are guaranteed to recoup the cost of current and mid/new gen quicker than just sticking with current gen. Did either of them actually see higher earnings based on the refresh consoles last gen? I thought the sales of those was quite lackluster, at least the ps 4pro.

Basically will either of them earn more money faster? If not, why bother? Unless they expect to blow the competitor and out of the water and end up as the only console in the high end segment?

It should cost less and less as these consoles are becoming more and more off the shelf apu's from AMD with some tweaks.

 

[davis.anthony]

It should cost less and less as these consoles are becoming more and more off the shelf apu's from AMD with some tweaks.

There's a little thing called wafer costs, SMD costs, RAM IC costs......

 

[JPT]

It should cost less and less as these consoles are becoming more and more off the shelf apu's from AMD with some tweaks.

Not an answer to my question. 1, 10, 100 or 1000 million?

 

[eastmen]

There's a little thing called wafer costs, SMD costs, RAM IC costs......

Not an answer to my question. 1, 10, 100 or 1000 million?

If you are making a refresh with higher clocks and tweaks like CU counts then you are already incurring those costs.

The real question is what is the cost difference between a ps4 pro and xox style refresh and just moving on to the next AMD APU ?

 

[JPT]

If you are making a refresh with higher clocks and tweaks like CU counts then you are already incurring those costs.

The real question is what is the cost difference between a ps4 pro and xox style refresh and just moving on to the next AMD APU ?

Topic is do you think it will be mid gen refresh and then people run of on a tangent by phasing in PS6 an XSX2 now. But just the cost of doing a/any refresh, what would that be?
Is it worth the cost to do it, I do not think so, more interesting question, was it worth it last gen? I have not got any numbers to back it up, but I doubt it was.

 

[eastmen]

Topic is do you think it will be mid gen refresh and then people run of on a tangent by phasing in PS6 an XSX2 now. But just the cost of doing a refresh, what would that be?
Is it worth the cost to do it, I do not think so, more interesting question, was it worth it last gen? I have not numbers to back it up, but I doubt it was.

Nah its not about ps6 and xsx2 . its about there being no more breaks in generation to usher in new hardware.

Last generation they tried it one way which was extending the older hardware with clock speeds and more cu. Now we have mid cycle hardware that is worthless with new games and we have new hardware with few games to take advantage. i just offered a different and better solution imo.

Be really boring here if we can't discuss anything without having access to all these companies R&D budgets and internal numbers we can't see.

 

[Seanspeed]

with few games to take advantage

Up to this point, yes. But that's changing now. 2023 will finally be the year of next gen. We'll start to see more of what these consoles can actually do and show the power of the traditional generational model.

 

[Pete]

With more and more previously console-exclusive games making their way to PC, I’d argue the PC becomes the mid-gen refresh. Devs can allow for higher refresh and res with minimal effort and can add extra RT if they want to put in extra effort (possibly with an eye toward their next title). What’s cheaper for Sony: designing and stocking an extra SKU, or letting Steam take their cut?

Too bad about the shortages and scalping, because it could have been interesting to see how backwards compatibility improved the PS5’s uptake vs PS4. Sure, the PS brand is stronger than Xbox, but did BC help cover or gloss over the PS5’s more polarizing form factor and weaker specs vs XSX? Will that ensure BC as a permanent feature, potentially affecting console generation cycle length (inasmuch as anything can affect manufacturing and RAM advances)?

Thoughts of a guy who hasn’t paid much attention to this but who thought the PS4Pro and X1X were worth it to help some games over the 30fps hump (I much prefer NMS at 1080p60 vs ~4k30, with the bonus of a way quieter Pro fan speed [that’s on the quieter revision, too]).

 

[Inuhanyou]

Pete is right. So there's no reason for a PS5 pro or Xbox series XL.

As far as bc is concerned as long as the hardware can provide an easy path to transferring software it will essentially come for free. And that's something both platforms will want to prioritize in the future due to wanting to build their ecosystems

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Pete's reply is exactly the reason Sony gave for needing PS4 Pro - to stop PS player migrating to PC!

 

[davis.anthony]

Issue with Pete's comment is that PS4 Pro was much cheaper than building a PC.

 

[iroboto]

Consoles continue to be the best value in gaming, when you consider the price point to get in. But everything else is more costly over time. You have to game a lot to make up the cost of PC hardware.