Business ramifications of piracy *spawn

25 bucks per console out there would already amount to a billion dollars and I don't think that'd be enough to send the system to Sony, fix it, and send it back. Assuming of course that it would be possible to organize and perform such an unprecedented recall.

But are they really going to loose $1 billion on the entire issue? That'd need, let's say, 25% of the user base to do $100 damage in pirated software in the upcoming two years, which isn't really likely.
The truth is that the losses wouldn't only strike Sony - all the other publishers would be hurt as well. Yes they'd be angry at Sony and it can cost them in relationships in the long term, but it's still not in their short term interest to invest money in preventing losses for Ubisoft, EA, Activision and the rest.

Recalls don't make any sense, I don't think it's an option for Sony...
 
25 bucks per console out there would already amount to a billion dollars and I don't think that'd be enough to send the system to Sony, fix it, and send it back. Assuming of course that it would be possible to organize and perform such an unprecedented recall.

But are they really going to loose $1 billion on the entire issue? That'd need, let's say, 25% of the user base to do $100 damage in pirated software in the upcoming two years, which isn't really likely.
The truth is that the losses wouldn't only strike Sony - all the other publishers would be hurt as well. Yes they'd be angry at Sony and it can cost them in relationships in the long term, but it's still not in their short term interest to invest money in preventing losses for Ubisoft, EA, Activision and the rest.

Recalls don't make any sense, I don't think it's an option for Sony...

The question is a good one, how much is Sony going to loose on this?

PSP Master key is out, games that didn´t work before are aparently working now, on the PSP GO
PS3 Piracy is gonna be insane.
And AACS keys will need to updated again and again, the only way i see a fix for this issue is all new BR Movies using 2 keys, if possible, one that only works with the PS3 and the other key for the rest of the players. If not possible, everytime Sony updates their AACS key, free rippers will be updated.
3rd party support, should by all means go down and games will be delayed even more than they might have been before. Rather sell as much as possible on the "secure" consoles than the insecure.

1 billion, i think i got that covered in loses and more to come.. of course, wild guessing :)

Sorry shifty, but it´s kind a hard to keep these threads super squeaky clean..
 
I know Sony can't afford to foot the bill to get all of these machines recalled, however; couldn't they play this to thier own advantage? What better way to get MOVE into peoples homes then to give the cameras away free? Could it be possible for Sony to include some form of hardware inside the PSeye that would communicate with the PS3 through USB allowing the machine to run newer firmware?

The machine could then use a form of image capture security, during bootup the PSeye would take a snapshot and verify it is recieving an image. If hackers attempted to create a dongle that broke the new encryption on the camera they would also need to send an image to the PS3 for verification. If hackers were able to send an image through the dongle to the PS3 of an image to beat this verification then a extremely simple update to the firmware would now flag that particular image as unacceptable. Heck they could even include a form of facial recognition that the machine has to verify that a live feed is being sent into the machine and verifying 2 eyes, a nose and a mouth are present before allowing full bootup.

Either way it seems a form of hardware is needed to combat the now compromised system, I think anything that can plug into the USB port should suffice. Even a PS3 Dongle sony creates for pennies with a simple USB pass through should work and be realitivily innexpensive.
 
Dregun, the pirates would just as easily remove that new hardware check on the base PS3 firmware. No need for pirated and crackers to go down the hardware dongle route.

Sony needs new hardware keys that are only capable of being put into a new PS3 console hardware revision. This is their only reasonable recourse. Anything external or done via software is hackable.
 
Link? I have a very hard believing this.

An engineer working for Sony electronics in my home county, although this is his opinion on what might happen. This is not what SCEI is planning. It's strictly his opinion. Apologies for confusion. He also says don't be suprised if they start charging for online multiplayer. This was unthinkable only a few weeks ago but people at the very top of Sony are really angry about the whole situation.
 
The only thing I could see is Sony trying to slow this down a bit. So, maybe threats of legal action. Yeah, I don't know on what grounds, but they need to slow this down, they can't stop this without losing tons of money or possible relationships.

So, everyone is thinking of the negative things that could happen, what is the best case that could come out of this?

I do think that the PSP2 will probably be delayed. I think at this point it would be smarter to do some extra checking to make sure that the security will hold.

Honestly, I would not put my games on the PS3 if I were a top developer that was multi-platform and launching games Christmas 2011 because as I said before it would be lose-lose for those that own another console and the PS3.
 
Meh,

I don't think piracy has near the effect in terms of lost sales that we are often lead to believe. How many potential PS3 software pirates would actually purchase the software if it wasn't available to them for free? How many who are accustomed to purchasing software are going to stop purchasing software and start stealing it? As I've mentioned before, I'm much more concerned by the potential for the PS3 to be locked out of BluRay playback due to its inability to be a secure platform.

And I still believe that the best way to combat media theft is to incentivize legitimate purchases instead of trying to prevent/punish theft. Sony should pursue this angle as vigorously as they pursue new security measures.
 
This was posted from IRC:


<Mathieulh> well they can ban your consoles, but then you can change your console id as many times as you like...

So, what could Sony do about this to ban your console perm?
 
This was posted from IRC:


<Mathieulh> well they can ban your consoles, but then you can change your console id as many times as you like...

So, what could Sony do about this to ban your console perm?

Not much. Too bad those PSN accounts have no value....
 
This was posted from IRC:


<Mathieulh> well they can ban your consoles, but then you can change your console id as many times as you like...

So, what could Sony do about this to ban your console perm?

Well, they could have a white-list of valid IDs (which they should have), so even if you change it might not be a valid one? Supposing it's not simply fed by some sequence, in which case guessing valid IDs would be trivial (and banning those could lead to keeping legitimate owners off the network).
 
Meh,

I don't think piracy has near the effect in terms of lost sales that we are often lead to believe. How many potential PS3 software pirates would actually purchase the software if it wasn't available to them for free? How many who are accustomed to purchasing software are going to stop purchasing software and start stealing it? As I've mentioned before, I'm much more concerned by the potential for the PS3 to be locked out of BluRay playback due to its inability to be a secure platform.

And I still believe that the best way to combat media theft is to incentivize legitimate purchases instead of trying to prevent/punish theft. Sony should pursue this angle as vigorously as they pursue new security measures.

If they make it easy to do then I disagree. The thing here is that a lot of people these days are about saving money and if you can save money, but still get the latest games and can do it very easily without bricking or modifying your console and just by sticking in a CD/DVD/USB thumb drive.

Games these days are $60 (plus sales taxes or VAT taxes) that is just for ONE game and ONE game only and there are many games that are coming out that are extremely high quality and some even high quality multiplatform games which are smaller in size to download) you could also rent these games and copy them so you don't have to download them if you don't want.

It's not going to happen right now, it will take a while for the word to start spreading (as well as loaders to be built and other software) like it did on the PSP and once there are FAQs and once it is as easy as just downloading something without fear of bricking then it is a real threat.

One way or another this is a game changer for Sony and Sony fans. This isn't just about piracy, it's a direction changer and a "game changer" for the entire Sony platform division.

oh, and Piracy just doesn't affect Sony, but third parties as well and even the other consoles such as wii and the 360, because people that might have bought a game such as modern warfare might pirate it on the PS3, instead of buying it on the other platforms.

So, by Christmas 2011 game sales might suffer by then.

This bad economy is a push for easy piracy for consumers and lost revenue for Sony and third parties and this is why I think Sony will go the route of ONLINE only next generation.

If you charge for online play and your console is completely online (games can be downloaded and stored on a massive hard drive) and if anything gets hacked, the cloud can be updated and security issue avoided. Steam is already available now and Sony can just team up with them. The future of the console is the cloud. Saving of your games can be done in the cloud using web services.

This stops piracy, used games for sale, renting games, borrowing games and increases your profits by quite a bit. Of course the downsides are that not everyone has an Internet connection for gaming or a fast Internet connection and in some cases dial-up is only available and of course some people want to hold the media that they have.

However, the good outweighs the bad and this is where things are headed anyway.
 
The only thing I could see is Sony trying to slow this down a bit. So, maybe threats of legal action. Yeah, I don't know on what grounds, but they need to slow this down, they can't stop this without losing tons of money or possible relationships.

So, everyone is thinking of the negative things that could happen, what is the best case that could come out of this?

I do think that the PSP2 will probably be delayed. I think at this point it would be smarter to do some extra checking to make sure that the security will hold.

Honestly, I would not put my games on the PS3 if I were a top developer that was multi-platform and launching games Christmas 2011 because as I said before it would be lose-lose for those that own another console and the PS3.


the psp2 getting delayed is no brainer. Sony has most of it's engineers on the ps3 situation right now. i would hate to be the folks at SCEJ especially the firmware team. The phone calls between Sony and IBM is going to be fascinating. Oh i wish i was the fly on the wall
 
If they make it easy to do then I disagree. The thing here is that a lot of people these days are about saving money and if you can save money, but still get the latest games and can do it very easily without bricking or modifying your console and just by sticking in a CD/DVD/USB thumb drive.

Games these days are $60 (plus sales taxes or VAT taxes) that is just for ONE game and ONE game only and there are many games that are coming out that are extremely high quality and some even high quality multiplatform games which are smaller in size to download) you could also rent these games and copy them so you don't have to download them if you don't want.

It's not going to happen right now, it will take a while for the word to start spreading (as well as loaders to be built and other software) like it did on the PSP and once there are FAQs and once it is as easy as just downloading something without fear of bricking then it is a real threat.

One way or another this is a game changer for Sony and Sony fans. This isn't just about piracy, it's a direction changer and a "game changer" for the entire Sony platform division.

oh, and Piracy just doesn't affect Sony, but third parties as well and even the other consoles such as wii and the 360, because people that might have bought a game such as modern warfare might pirate it on the PS3, instead of buying it on the other platforms.

So, by Christmas 2011 game sales might suffer by then.

This bad economy is a push for easy piracy for consumers and lost revenue for Sony and third parties and this is why I think Sony will go the route of ONLINE only next generation.

If you charge for online play and your console is completely online (games can be downloaded and stored on a massive hard drive) and if anything gets hacked, the cloud can be updated and security issue avoided. Steam is already available now and Sony can just team up with them. The future of the console is the cloud. Saving of your games can be done in the cloud using web services.

This stops piracy, used games for sale, renting games, borrowing games and increases your profits by quite a bit. Of course the downsides are that not everyone has an Internet connection for gaming or a fast Internet connection and in some cases dial-up is only available and of course some people want to hold the media that they have.

However, the good outweighs the bad and this is where things are headed anyway.


More than 90 percent of all SCEI revenues from games comes from physical media. They are not going to cut off that money by going online only next gen.
 
This was posted from IRC:


<Mathieulh> well they can ban your consoles, but then you can change your console id as many times as you like...

So, what could Sony do about this to ban your console perm?


well alot of people are going to get caught in the crossfire between sony and the hackers. If hackers are able to change the MAC address of a ps3 then even innocent people will wake up one morning to find out that their console has been banned just like that.
 
More than 90 percent of all SCEI revenues from games comes from physical media. They are not going to cut off that money by going online only next gen.

We don't know that for sure. I mean think of all the money that you would make if you can make most of the profit without the middle man in the way and without having to produce anything physical.

Just download and go, the prices would have to be cheaper as a result (maybe $40 instead of $60) and like I said you would not share your download with someone else, you could not buy it used, you could not pirate it and publishers would get more of the profits.

This would mean games would get shorter, but publishers get full profits right away and they don't have to produce so much artwork for manuals and boxes (maybe online work only).

Then having people pay for dedicated servers online would be a huge revenue.

This is not where I want things to go, believe me. However, after downloading Alan Wake on the Xbox I can see why things would head in this direction.

Sony and partners have more control and make good profits and less worry and more security.
 
I can see this kind of hack being a platform killer.

If the PS3 is now open to a software hack that renders it open to any form of piracy be it games, movies, etc then who is going to be willing to take the risk if developing for it? Multi-platform games would place too much of a risk on potential profits on other platforms and the first party developers that have produced such works as Little Big Planet and Heavy Rain are going to be left high and dry.

If it puts a fledging blu-ray market at risk, with all the investment that has gone in to it, then it will lose its backing as a blu-ray player. And that removes part of the PS3's USP.

If Sony decided to call it a day with the PS3 I wouldn't be surprised. If they are willing to invest further in such a hostile and belligerent market then I would be even more surprised. Especially if they kept physical media for such a project.
 
I bet Sony leaked this info to the hackers so they can use it as the ideal tipping point to turn off free multiplayer and make the switch to a full XBL style experience. Sorry, hackers made us do it. Blame them. :)
 
If the PS3 is now open to a software hack that renders it open to any form of piracy be it games, movies, etc then who is going to be willing to take the risk if developing for it? Multi-platform games would place too much of a risk on potential profits on other platforms and the first party developers that have produced such works as Little Big Planet and Heavy Rain are going to be left high and dry.

That doesn't hold up, though. Ignoring other factors, people could run homebrew on the PS2, there was no way of preventing that. The modchip scene didn't destroy the PS2. Most people didn't have a modchip, even though they certainly were easy to get.

I don't see why every single PS3 out there will suddenly get modded. Not every Wii out there gets modded. I'm sure that even with the PSP, most of them aren't modded. Hell, even on the PC as a whole, I don't think most people playing games pirate them.
 
How many who are accustomed to purchasing software are going to stop purchasing software and start stealing it?

A lot. This should be a no-brainer - many people would stop spending on games if they could get them for free, with no risk at all.
 
But there's no need for modding, making it a completely different case. No loss of warranty, no risk, no cost, only a lot of reward.
 
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