Business ramifications of piracy *spawn

[mrcorbo]

A lot. This should be a no-brainer - many people would stop spending on games if they could get them for free, with no risk at all.

If you were to guess, what kind of a percentage drop in sales do you think might happen as a direct result of piracy?

 

[stofcri]

Hi everyone,
I'm reading the thread,but nobody here talk about the sizes of the games here...Mosts of games are 20Gb big, who,in here, has a good banwidth to download a full game and how much time will it take finally?Who's gonna purchase a 100€ BD Writer,with 5-10€ blank 25Gb Single Layer BD?It seems to be a real investment ,no?For playing "free" games...
Maybe SONY must push devs to fill in BD ,even with garbage ,just to dissuade the downloadings...

PS:Sorry for my english...

 

[RobertR1]

Most of the games are NOT 20gb.....

 

[Elan Tedronai]

We don't know that for sure. I mean think of all the money that you would make if you can make most of the profit without the middle man in the way and without having to produce anything physical.

Just download and go, the prices would have to be cheaper as a result (maybe $40 instead of $60) and like I said you would not share your download with someone else, you could not buy it used, you could not pirate it and publishers would get more of the profits.

This would mean games would get shorter, but publishers get full profits right away and they don't have to produce so much artwork for manuals and boxes (maybe online work only).

Then having people pay for dedicated servers online would be a huge revenue.

This is not where I want things to go, believe me. However, after downloading Alan Wake on the Xbox I can see why things would head in this direction.

Sony and partners have more control and make good profits and less worry and more security.

the amount of money gained by going download only is simply not going to be enough to cover the loss of physical media distribution. It's simply not going to happen. Sony has alot of markets in the far east, middle east, latin america and central asia that rely on physical distribution. You also have to consider the futillity of downloading 20-50 Gb games in the future with bandwidth restrictions and so forth.

 

[Elan Tedronai]

I can see this kind of hack being a platform killer.

If the PS3 is now open to a software hack that renders it open to any form of piracy be it games, movies, etc then who is going to be willing to take the risk if developing for it? Multi-platform games would place too much of a risk on potential profits on other platforms and the first party developers that have produced such works as Little Big Planet and Heavy Rain are going to be left high and dry.

If it puts a fledging blu-ray market at risk, with all the investment that has gone in to it, then it will lose its backing as a blu-ray player. And that removes part of the PS3's USP.

If Sony decided to call it a day with the PS3 I wouldn't be surprised. If they are willing to invest further in such a hostile and belligerent market then I would be even more surprised. Especially if they kept physical media for such a project.

like i said earlier. Damage has been done. There are 40+ million vulnerable ps3s. Their target market is the hardcore folks. The sort who knows his custom firmware from his XMB.

Sony has two silver linings here. One is the online aspect. And two are future games. They can control both. People will always want to play online and play the latest game. That's why the likelyhood of paid multiplayer and exchanging vulnerable ps3s for hardware revised ones is possible. Ideally they would probably love to gather all their first party devs and start on the ps4 but that is not something one does overnight.

 

[Xenus]

I doubt they can circumvent a ban that easy. Ban by MAC address and that's the end of it unless even that's spoofable.

 

[BoardBonobo]

That doesn't hold up, though. Ignoring other factors, people could run homebrew on the PS2, there was no way of preventing that. The modchip scene didn't destroy the PS2. Most people didn't have a modchip, even though they certainly were easy to get.

I don't see why every single PS3 out there will suddenly get modded. Not every Wii out there gets modded. I'm sure that even with the PSP, most of them aren't modded. Hell, even on the PC as a whole, I don't think most people playing games pirate them.

It requires no modding. Just a download from a friendly server and a usb stick to do a 'firmware' upgrade. And that's it. From now on everything's free. Now I may be a bad judge of character, but once that idea hits the common stream it won't take long to become very popular.

And a console isn't like a PC where you need up to the minute GFX to do the latest games. It's a closed system that is always going to perform.

If you look at the piracy on the PC market you are looking at, as I recall, 4+ million downloads of COD. That's 10% of the PS3 user base. If that happens with the PS3 then it's a dead platform. It will no longer be economically viable to spend millions to, potentially, lose those millions.

 

[Butta]

It requires no modding. Just a download from a friendly server and a usb stick to do a 'firmware' upgrade. And that's it. From now on everything's free. Now I may be a bad judge of character, but once that idea hits the common stream it won't take long to become very popular.

And a console isn't like a PC where you need up to the minute GFX to do the latest games. It's a closed system that is always going to perform.

If you look at the piracy on the PC market you are looking at, as I recall, 4+ million downloads of COD. That's 10% of the PS3 user base. If that happens with the PS3 then it's a dead platform. It will no longer be economically viable to spend millions to, potentially, lose those millions.

It doesn't sound any different than the iPhone hacks that let you download anything you wanted for free from the app store and opened up homebrew. This did not kill the iPhone and I doubt if it will kill the PS3

 

[mrcorbo]

I doubt they can circumvent a ban that easy. Ban by MAC address and that's the end of it unless even that's spoofable.

MAC addresses are spoofable.

 

[corduroygt]

I would presume Sony knows the CPU keys of each ps3 they made. Since they're pretty large, you cannot really guess and try to spoof another one if your current key gets banned. Psn bans can be handled this way instead of useless MAC address ban.

 

[obonicus]

But there's no need for modding, making it a completely different case. No loss of warranty, no risk, no cost, only a lot of reward.

Actually, don't CFW'd Wiis lose the warranty? I know Nintendo also charges more to repair a CFW'd Wii, so there's no reason Sony couldn't follow suit.

 

[obonicus]

It requires no modding. Just a download from a friendly server and a usb stick to do a 'firmware' upgrade. And that's it. From now on everything's free. Now I may be a bad judge of character, but once that idea hits the common stream it won't take long to become very popular.

Depends on what market. In a market where people are used to buying games, they'll continue to buy games. In the market I'm in, people don't buy PS3s because up until now they couldn't pirate games. It's not like these people would be buying tons of original software.

And a console isn't like a PC where you need up to the minute GFX to do the latest games. It's a closed system that is always going to perform.

Dude, this hasn't been true for a while. The 'latest' games (with a handful of exceptions) run fine on hardware from years ago, thanks to in part being designed for hardware from years ago.

If you look at the piracy on the PC market you are looking at, as I recall, 4+ million downloads of COD. That's 10% of the PS3 user base. If that happens with the PS3 then it's a dead platform. It will no longer be economically viable to spend millions to, potentially, lose those millions.

How many sales of CoD were lost? Were all 4 million downloads to someone who otherwise would have bought the game? That's the question we don't have full answers to, but I'd put money on it not being even close to 1:1. This isn't how IP owners see things, of course, they see piracy as leading to lost opportunity.

Just look at the piracy of CODBLOPS on other platforms, did the nearly million people who got it on 360 affect the sales on that platform?

 

[obonicus]

like i said earlier. Damage has been done. There are 40+ million vulnerable ps3s. Their target market is the hardcore folks. The sort who knows his custom firmware from his XMB.

How many actually hardcore people do you think exist? They're us, the forum PITAs, the GAFfers, etc. And time and time again we're shown that what we do is irrelevant in the greater scheme of things.

 

[BoardBonobo]

In the market I'm in, people don't buy PS3s because up until now they couldn't pirate games. It's not like these people would be buying tons of original software.

That's not a market. That's just theft. A market is somewhere that a two way trade takes place. And at the end of the day why would you buy a console if not to buy the games that it gets? Do you just spend the money and hope that some sad sack can get you stuff for free?

Dude, this hasn't been true for a while. The 'latest' games (with a handful of exceptions) run fine on hardware from years ago, thanks to in part being designed for hardware from years ago.

That doesn't matter. If you want to pirate cutting edge PC games you tend to need cutting edge hardware. A cutting edge console game just requires a lot of hard work on the developers side and a console.

How many sales of CoD were lost? Were all 4 million downloads to someone who otherwise would have bought the game? That's the question we don't have full answers to, but I'd put money on it not being even close to 1:1. This isn't how IP owners see things, of course, they see piracy as leading to lost opportunity.
Just look at the piracy of CODBLOPS on other platforms, did the nearly million people who got it on 360 affect the sales on that platform?

It's a lost opportunity in the sense that losing a leg to a shark is a lucky escape. Hang around long enough and there'll be nothing left.

 

[obonicus]

That's not a market. That's just theft. A market is somewhere that a two way trade takes place. And at the end of the day why would you buy a console if not to buy the games that it gets? Do you just spend the money and hope that some sad sack can get you stuff for free?

People buy 360s for piracy. They don't buy original software for it, though, instead preferring bootleg DVDs. It is a market, it's just nothing like the markets you see in other countries -- it's more like what Fafalada talks about. And yes, if they could sell 360s with games preloaded they would. But the install-bases of these consoles in these markets is tiny.

That doesn't matter. If you want to pirate cutting edge PC games you tend to need cutting edge hardware. A cutting edge console game just requires a lot of hard work on the developers side and a console.

No one's making cutting edge PC games. Everyone's making multiplatform games. Do you need an amazing machine to run CODBLOPS?

It's a lost opportunity in the sense that losing a leg to a shark is a lucky escape. Hang around long enough and there'll be nothing left.

That makes no sense. I mean, literally, what?

There's nothing that can establish piracy to lost sales at 1:1 or near that. I don't buy the contrary argument, that no pirate would have bought they pirated, though. Still, do you think that if PC DRM had been impenetrable that CODBLOPS would have sold another 4.3 million copies on PC?

 

[Docwiz]

Hi everyone,
I'm reading the thread,but nobody here talk about the sizes of the games here...Mosts of games are 20Gb big, who,in here, has a good banwidth to download a full game and how much time will it take finally?Who's gonna purchase a 100€ BD Writer,with 5-10€ blank 25Gb Single Layer BD?It seems to be a real investment ,no?For playing "free" games...
Maybe SONY must push devs to fill in BD ,even with garbage ,just to dissuade the downloadings...

PS:Sorry for my english...

1) Most of the games will be around 8-10 GB in size. The only games that will be large are first party software.
I downloaded Alan Wake which is legal with a code and that was 6.7 Gigabytes.

2) For the real big titles you can leave your PS3 on all night or your PC and call it a day.

3) Places like Blockbuster rent blu-ray PS3 games at the store, rent them and copy them and bring them back. Better to spend $5 than $60 and you can get more games.

4) External hard drives are cheap and you can even buy Internal hard drives and get an enclosure and slide them in and format and you are ready to go. 2 TB hard drives are getting cheap 80 dollars

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822152245

5) Blu-ray disks can be purchased at $3 per blu-ray and as time goes on this price will drop as well as $112 internal PC blu-ray drives.

 

[Docwiz]

People buy 360s for piracy. They don't buy original software for it, though, instead preferring bootleg DVDs. It is a market, it's just nothing like the markets you see in other countries -- it's more like what Fafalada talks about. And yes, if they could sell 360s with games preloaded they would. But the install-bases of these consoles in these markets is tiny.

No one's making cutting edge PC games. Everyone's making multiplatform games. Do you need an amazing machine to run CODBLOPS?

That makes no sense. I mean, literally, what?

There's nothing that can establish piracy to lost sales at 1:1 or near that. I don't buy the contrary argument, that no pirate would have bought they pirated, though. Still, do you think that if PC DRM had been impenetrable that CODBLOPS would have sold another 4.3 million copies on PC?

People buy 360's for piracy? What? I don't know what it's like everywhere in the world, but in the USA, the 360 is the least pirated console this generation. Microsoft has done bans when the old 360's were out, but it's not pirated like what you are stating. I mean there isn't anything you can do with a 360 when it is banned from using Xbox Live and you can't update firmware or games and this crack was around 12 months after the first 360 was out. Most of those have red ringed by now. So you have the 360 S which is the most protected out of all the 360s.

 

[obonicus]

I don't know what it's like everywhere in the world,

Then maybe you shouldn't be replying to me when I'm not talking about the USA?

Edit: I know smaller retailers who stopped carrying 360 games because they just wouldn't move, all they'd get are people asking for bootlegs. This is a region that was skipped by the OG Xbox and only got Live in late 2010, 5 years into 360's lifespan. Yes, people are banned from XBL, but these people don't want to pay for Live! in the first place. On some of the best games this year online play was incidental, if not completely skippable.

 

[Docwiz]

That doesn't hold up, though. Ignoring other factors, people could run homebrew on the PS2, there was no way of preventing that. The modchip scene didn't destroy the PS2. Most people didn't have a modchip, even though they certainly were easy to get.

I don't see why every single PS3 out there will suddenly get modded. Not every Wii out there gets modded. I'm sure that even with the PSP, most of them aren't modded. Hell, even on the PC as a whole, I don't think most people playing games pirate them.

So, what happens when anyone can just download and pirate? What happens when you don't have to get any console mod chips at all. Anything can be signed and run just by a download. That is 100 percent completely different than getting a mod chip.

Some people are confusing piracy of the past where you had to physically alter a console to a console in which it's totally unsecure to the point of downloading a game and running it or renting a game and running it with a loader to install it on a hard drive.

The two events not even related. The PS3 is the most unsecure device in recent history of consoles.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Hi everyone,
I'm reading the thread,but nobody here talk about the sizes of the games here...Mosts of games are 20Gb big, who,in here, has a good banwidth to download a full game and how much time will it take finally?Who's gonna purchase a 100€ BD Writer,with 5-10€ blank 25Gb Single Layer BD?It seems to be a real investment ,no?For playing "free" games...
Maybe SONY must push devs to fill in BD ,even with garbage ,just to dissuade the downloadings...

PS:Sorry for my english...

There's no need to burn it to BRD when you can play it directly off a HDD. Similar situation to the original XBOX, only there is no hack required whether it be a hardware modification or glitching a game to inject code.

It doesn't sound any different than the iPhone hacks that let you download anything you wanted for free from the app store and opened up homebrew. This did not kill the iPhone and I doubt if it will kill the PS3

There's a real danger of Apple making your jailbroken iPhone not work with new firmware which wouldn't exist with the current situation with PS3. In theory the carrier could also block access to their phone network if they wanted for jailbroken devices. But since jailbroken iPhones only really hurt the application developers it's not a big deal to either Apple or the phone companies.

Add to that the iPhone is sold at a highly profitable margin, again contrary to the PS3 which has a slim margin at best. In other words, Apple would still make a HUGE profit on the iPhone if all they sold was the iPhone and no applications got sold.

The Wii can also do fine if there was massive pirating. The console itself is sold at a fairly nice profit for Nintendo. And one thing we'll never know, is software really just underperforming on Wii, or is it so low due to the ease of pirating? Then again, families are less likely to partake in activities they know is illegal than say single males aged 10-50.

PS3 is in a situation where the console only relatively recently stopped being a loss leader and it's main demographic is arguably the one most likely to pirate.

It's similar to the situation with X360, except that it's going to be many orders of magnitude easier to run pirated software. Sony hasn't focused on online integration nearly as much as MS. So banning would have relatively less impact as a deterant. And with the ability to run arbitrary code, banning may not have any effect on being able to play a game online. As well, MS can sabotage most attempts to hack in additional functionality (modded HDDs for example being disabled).

The closest consoles to the sitation the PS3 is now in would be the Dreamcast, Xbox, and PSP. Although far easier to hack now than any of those others. Had PS3 launched with this vulnerability exposed, it quite likely would have turned out to be this generation's Dreamcast.

Regards,
SB