Business ramifications of piracy *spawn

[obonicus]

It depends on which you're talking about, the DVD Firmware cracks or the JTAG System hacks. The DVD Firmware cracks allow for playing of pirated games. The JTAG System hack allows for running of arbitrary code.

I'm talking about the DVD Firmware hack, since I'm talking only about piracy.

MS always does a massive large rolling ban wave with the new Dashboard updates every November.

I don't think they did one in 2010, though, did they? And are you certain about one month to ban? I was under the impression that they had become more lax with bannings, but it may just be because the acquaintances I have who pirate have resigned themselves to stay off XBL.

 

[BRiT]

MS most certainly set things up for rolling bans in November 2010 with the combination of the new Kinect dashboard update and AP2.5 security system activation on new games. They haven't become more lax, they've become stricter. They even banned systems based on their DVD-Rom drive make and model not matching what they have on file for that console.

 

[obonicus]

MS most certainly set things up for rolling bans in November 2010 with the combination of the new Kinect dashboard update and AP2.5 security system activation on new games. They haven't become more lax, they've become stricter.

Ah, so the rolling bans started in November. But there wasn't an xboxalypse like there was in 2009, was there? I hadn't seen any of the 'sky is falling' drama.

 

[Elan Tedronai]

Why? they can make games for the PS4 and PSP2. I don't think this is such a big deal tbh.

PS3 is already lagging behind the 360 in sales, popularity and the PS3 is already 4 years old. Since they make profit on the PS3 now, it won't hurt them that much.

They can sell many PS3's in 2 or 3 years before the PS4 hits and somehow I think this is all planned by Sony.

won't hurt them that much? are u a fool or what? do you know how much it costs to develop and market a game these days? particularly AAA games?

 

[Elan Tedronai]

Depends on how easy the hack is. I was working gamestop when the dreamcast was out. It was huge everyone was buying games. Then the boot discs hit the web and chinatown and then everyone i knew had all the dreamcast games and didn't pay a cent.

If this is on that level of easy where all you need is a usb key and you load a custom firmware and you can play all the games you want , this could really harm sony.

exactly. it's funny to see how people are downplaying this. i loved the dreamcast and it was sad to see it destroyed by cheap ass thieves. Alot of people at sony are going to lose their jobs over this.

bravo to all the hackers out there. bravo. You sure showed sony.

 

[Elan Tedronai]

This is to be expected. They won't be able to fight this via technical means alone. The more interesting question is what will users at large do with the new found freedom, and go with the flow.

Other than releasing new hardware modules, all Sony can do now is to target stores that pirate games on behalf of users, get sympathetic users to report these stores (with rewards), and also gamers who cheat on PSN.

Sony has a few choices now. And the window to act is very little. One start downsizing development of new games. This is going to be hard. But there is no choice.

that includes yep naughty dog, santa monica etc. no choice. secondly delay the psp2. actually at this point. stop all development on that front. the ship has it's hull breached and there is no point in racing with nintendo at this point.

Finally Start development on the PS4 right now. The ps3 is damaged beyond repair. Hardware sales depend on software. Software is finished at this point. Swallow the pill and cut your losses. And remember Sony. No more openess this time. Close your system completely. i mean completely. Take lessons from Microsoft if you have to.

 

[patsu]

Assuming they are not losing money on PS3 unit sales, I'd wait and see. A lot of warez will appear online by end of this week, or latest January 2011.

Support the existing PS3 gamers as usual. The partners may be hard to calm down.

If Sony continues to excite its users, then the question is open; but if it lags behind the homebrew people severely (like on PSP), then they are in danger.

PS4 should have its own pace of development. Dreamcast had other issues besides piracy. Same for PSP.

It might not be a bad idea to reach out to the homebrew community too.

 

[nightshade]

exactly. it's funny to see how people are downplaying this. i loved the dreamcast and it was sad to see it destroyed by cheap ass thieves. Alot of people at sony are going to lose their jobs over this.

bravo to all the hackers out there. bravo. You sure showed sony.

You are overreacting, beside the failure of Dreamcast was due to various other factors aside from piracy.

 

[eastmen]

You are overreacting, beside the failure of Dreamcast was due to various other factors aside from piracy.

Its not like the ps3 doesn't have other factors. Its sales aren't stellar in japan nor in NA .


I'm not sure what effect this will have . The easier it is to pirate games the more popular it will be. This could cause developers to spend last time porting games or give MS an easier time of buying timed exclusives.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Its not like the ps3 doesn't have other factors. Its sales aren't stellar in japan nor in NA .

It's sold about as many units as XB360, in less time! How many other consoles in history have sold 40 million units?

 

[eastmen]

It's sold about as many units as XB360, in less time! How many other consoles in history have sold 40 million units?

At least 1 per generation since the nes . Sometimes 2 or 3 .


Nes , Genesis , Super nes , PSX , N64 , ps2 , xbox 360 , wii , ps3 .


Besides its software sales that matter. If hardware keeps moving but the software stagnats in sales or decreses as I said they will get less support .

 

[-tkf-]

"Excellent"

http://psgroove.com/content.php?600...umped-Gran-Turismo-5-Now-Able-to-be-Decrypted


Looks like the online competition for the SLS could be in trouble, i really hope PD did a good job on the Security with the Voucher...

But everything else in regards to online.. in shatters.. hackers, smart and clever, and utterly oblivious to the consequences of their actions. "We want linux on this machine", the excuse to see people loose jobs and thousands of players see their online gaming sabotaged..

 

[Shifty Geezer]

At least 1 per generation since the nes . Sometimes 2 or 3 .

Nes , Genesis , Super nes , PSX , N64 , ps2...

And the second part of my point, which of those were failures?

Besides its software sales that matter.

Which is a new point to the one you made above, and one I don't disagree with. If PS3 software sales take a hammering, devs will not want to develop for it, although 'cheap' cross-platform ports will probably still exist.

 

[nightshade]

Well its a fact that piracy will lead to a surge in hardware sales number, but it'll also lead towards a decrease in software sales. How much the software sales are affected may vary and its something which we can't predict right now, it may be a loss of few hundred thousand or less to maybe a million or more.

One thing which you'll have to keep in mind is that the highest selling PS3 game is a little more than a tenth of the total userbase. In any case the argument of 1 pirated copy = 1 loss in sale is a moot point. People pirate to avoid spending money over games...and these people wouldn't have played the games otherwise had piracy not been in the scene.

 

[eastmen]

And the second part of my point, which of those were failures?

Which is a new point to the one you made above, and one I don't disagree with. If PS3 software sales take a hammering, devs will not want to develop for it, although 'cheap' cross-platform ports will probably still exist.

I don't think the n64 would be considered a sucess.
Aside from that my point was allways about unit sales of software. Thats what matters in the end . If piracy is very easy and sony isn't able to stop people from pirating and using psn. Then it could very well be an age of reduced support for sony. I don't think developers will stop porting. I just don't think they will focus as much on the ports at least less than now. I also think some of the bigger 3rd party titles could again become timed exclusive.

MS has piracy problems but at least they have some tools to help deal with it that are still viable. At this point we really don't know what if anything sony can do.


I personaly wont pirate games. But my ps3 drive is dead and don't have the money to buy a new one. So this is interesting to me , if i can buy the game and use my pc to load the game onto the ps3 it will help

 

[patsu]

"Excellent"

http://psgroove.com/content.php?600...umped-Gran-Turismo-5-Now-Able-to-be-Decrypted


Looks like the online competition for the SLS could be in trouble, i really hope PD did a good job on the Security with the Voucher...

But everything else in regards to online.. in shatters.. hackers, smart and clever, and utterly oblivious to the consequences of their actions. "We want linux on this machine", the excuse to see people loose jobs and thousands of players see their online gaming sabotaged..

I remember the SLS competition has a second stage to be played at Nurburgring, Germany.

The hackers may be able to ruin the pure online races. Stage 2 may be tricky if it's a physical race.

 

[-tkf-]

. People pirate to avoid spending money over games...

Correct

and these people wouldn't have played the games otherwise had piracy not been in the scene.

Not entirely true, There are a good chunk of people that just change the priorty on their money.
If i can download GTA4 and play it for free, i can also afford to buy a new movie, a few cd´s and some beer.

If i can´t download GTA4 i have to make a choice, what do i want the most, i might just pass on the game, but there are some situations where i wont pass, and my hard earned cash will go to the game instead of other stuff.

I think the exact same thing happend with MP3 files, people did not stop listening to music, they just did it for free instead of paying for it.

 

[Commenter]

I wonder what sort of crisis meetings are going at Sony now? I'm not sure if they can rush through a PS4 yet, with the economy the way it is. Then if they release a PS4 it would have to offer a big graphical leap over the PS3 to wow consumers, which means some astronomical development costs. That is probably going to be extremely hard to recover without a large consumer base.

 

[Florin]

I don't think there's any reason for Sony to go into full on panic mode like some of the drama queens are advocating. In fact, PS3 hardware sales are likely to benefit some. But more importantly console piracy will always remain a niche simply for the sheer inconvenience of it. Sooner or later some sort of equilibrium will be established, with new releases as well as online play requiring the latest firmware, and the pirates always at least one or two steps behind. High school kids, unemployed people and techies may have the time and appetite to deal with it, but its relevance to the gaming populace shouldn't be overstated.

 

[Fafalada]

and these people wouldn't have played the games otherwise had piracy not been in the scene.

Not really the case.
Take PSP and NDS in Asia - both were fine software wise for a year or two, until mainstream piracy hit its stride. Software effectively died since.

Likewise, there's precedent for free-players to potentially convert to paying users when a hard-to crack DRM scheme or something else entices them enough (DRM schemes that survived a month+ showcase the former, success of F2P model is proof of the latter).