Obviously the XDR2 rumors (which last time I checked no one had signed on to create even though the spec has been around FOR YEARS because everyone hates Rambus) and this conversation are dancing around a question that doesn't have an easy answer. That is, if the mid-range part is 256-bit with ~5ghz, how does a higher-end part approx double that?
1. 256-bit XDR2 (erm...)
2. 384-bit @ ~7gbps
3. 512-bit @ 5gbps
While I agree 384-bit makes both the most sense considering the up-to-now AMD strategy of ramping voltage/clockspeeds in place of physical logic, it seems the least likely considering they have no precedence in using odd buses. I also think it makes sense because of the 1.5/3GB configuration options considering the most-used resolution and what it requires, which could help cut costs, not-to-mention 6/12x6-7gbps @ 1.5v on paper sounds better than 8/16x4-5gbps @ 1.35v. OTOH, voltage on 28nm HP is 1.05v, and HLP (if that rumor is true) 1v flat, down from the 1.2v of virtually every other process they've used up to this point (not counting the 1.3v spec they helped create and used on 55nm), close/identical to the nVIDIA standard 1v operating voltage across all those same processes (and they'll probably use again.) In other words, they may not have that option this go-round, and may be forced to use more logic and have larger dies than we've seen since RV670 to remain competitive. Therefore, a larger bus may make sense.
I imagine we're all on the same page with what nVIDIA's likely to do with Kepler and the GF104/114 refresh, why wouldn't AMD go this route? Just because of R600?
While increasing the number of memory controllers is expensive, so is increasing their speed. Recalling Anand's Barts review, AMD mentioned that the Cypress controller was around twice the size of Redwood (article expounds they mean per controller...obviously one is 128-bit, the other 256-bit) which sounds like a dramatic decrease in returns for a 15% gain. One could imagine then what it would take to run a controller at around 7Gbps. In essence, that statement is an admittance that more controllers running at a lower speed (ala Barts) IS a good option.
Now, granted, 512-bit would mean a large chip...and 28nm is immature. I think it's the consensus though the largest chip will come later, sometime in 2012, and what we'll get for 2011 is a Cypress replacement. Hence, it's at least plausible.
One could go on and on and run circles around each option. That opinion could be tainted on wither you believe the mid-range will be a 192-bit chip as DH originally posted and Charlie omitted regarding mobile variations, or rather still a 256-bit chip (that DH had pegged further out into 2012, and Charlie's mobile chart included). At this point, considering 192-bit could be seen as a step backwards from Barts, I'm inclined to believe the mid-range is 256-bit.
I'm not making a definitive argument for 512-bit, but it makes just as much sense as 384-bit when considering the known variables which I'm aware...and a hell of a lot more than XDR2 afaik. No one seems to mention it though...so I thought I would