NPD November 2012

See?

 

Do you get day and date digital distribution on the Xbox 360 as well?

 

Not yet. It's quite annoying.

 

You're right, I wasn't considering Black Friday.

I still have trouble contextualizing these numbers. The competitive landscape created by the WiiU is somewhat novel. I'm curious to see what happens over the next few months.

If MS/Sony launch new hardware next year, then next holiday will be -very- interesting.

 

Nintendo's market for the WiiU will be Nintendo fans and from there they will try to reach the casual market with their mascots.

The sports/FPS/TPS market isn't a play for them today and won't be in the future.

 

But why? As in, why aren't they even trying? Prior to PlayStation, Nintendo was the hardcore platform. It's as if after GC, they've just given up the struggle.

 

That market audience wants to be vowed by tech (graphics, big numbers, online, etc..). They'd have to subsidize HW like the other two and hope the install base and software sales are enough to make up the diff.

Being a gaming only company, that's a not a good business model for them. Too much risk. They could really mess up and end up like Xbox 1 or PS3 and then what? shut down the company?

They seem to try and bring something new and different to the market that would resonate with the casuals and non gamers. That clearly worked great with the the Wii and Waggle. How well it works with the Wii U remains to be seen.

Even if the Wii U fails, they can go back to the drawing board without taking a large of a hit had their business model followed that of MS and Sony.

 

Prior to the Wii all platforms where hardcore platforms.

 

Targeting only ~25 million Nintendo fans is also a risk. Nintendo have enough money in the bank to make a splash on a all-things-to-all-people super console. Imagine a box with a pad as classy as an Apple iThing (think 7" Vita), super slick software, amazing family experiences and the best core games as console gamers have never seen them before. It'd wow everyone, steal headlines, be the must-have device this Christmas, etc.

If Nintendo have just played it safe, then they deserve to miss out. They are in a strong position and not following that up with a strong move is inviting the competition to make a comeback.

 

That's just Nintendo. They like to play it safe. The competition never went away.

Nintendo captured Nintendo fans + new comers to the market. They didn't manage to take away 360/PS3 fanbase anyway.

All their goal with the WiiU is to try and retain the audience they had...

 

I'm not sure it's so much giving up as focusing their efforts on what would make them the most money in those lean years. And that legacy is sort of guiding their hand now.

Hardcore gets all the press and adoration, but casual is where the money is in many ways.

Here's an example from an unrelated field.

Eddie Murphy used to be (and still is by many) considered one of the best comedians of all time. He used to be very "edgy" movies and consistently pushed the envelope for a black comedian. But then he sort of just disappeared. Only he didn't really. He started making movies focused at families and children and makes many more times money off of those than he ever did with things like 48 hours, Trading Places, or Beverly Hills Cop. Despite those 3 being acclaimed as his best work, while his family/children's movies are regularly panned by the media.

Electronics, computers, etc. are no different. The top spec exciting new products always get the press, but it's always the boring low cost consumer focused products that make the bulk of the money.

I personally don't like it as it means the games that I used to love are all being watered down in order to serve more casual audiences and broader audiences. I really can't blame them for it. While it may not get them any critical acclaim, it probably gives them a better chance to get a good ROI.

Anyway, the whole point of this post is that with Nintendo basically losing the battle (badly) to Sony in the N64 vs. PS battle, they decided to focus on what would bring them the most money with the least investment. Rather than gamble and risk the company on another play at the hardcore and risk becoming a non-factor, like SEGA, they decided to make a play to corner the family/casual market. Games for that segment don't require the capital investment that games for the "hardcore" do. And as such the hardware to run games for that segment doesn't require the capital investment and hence they could always make a profit on every machine sold.

That's basically guided their corporate direction for the past few generations.

I believe the 3DS and Wii-U are both attempts by Nintendo to dip their toes into the Hardcore market again. If they don't succeed, I think they'll refocus and give up on the Hardcore entirely going forward.

After all, I don't think there is room for more than 1 or 2 hardcore focused platforms. Back in the 90's you had SEGA and Nintendo. There were also a ton of other consoles, but they all just faded. Later, Sony stepped in and SEGA disappeared. Microsoft stepped in to take a play at the hardcore and now it's MS and Sony.

The same happens in many industries as time goes on it seems. Nvidia versus ATI/AMD when there used to be a plethora of graphic chip makers. iPhone versus Samsung Android in the western markets, all other Android phone makers in the west are basically fringe players now with Palm and Blackberry being relegated to dead or life support. Samsung and LG basically being the only relevant profitable money makers in the high end consumer TV market. The traditional players (Sharp, Sony, Panasonic) are all fringe players there now. The US car industry used to be dominated by a huge number of auto makers. That was whittled down to the "Big 3" by the 70's. And arguably only Chevy and Ford by the 2000's with Chrysler lagging significantly behind them. The Japan auto industry is dominated by Toyota and Nissan with Subaru and Honda far behind. Probably not surprisingly the Toyota and Nissan luxury brands (Lexus and Infiniti) far outclass the only other Japanese luxury brand, Acura (which isn't even in the same league).

The same happens with foods. Just look at peanut butter in the US, it used have a ton of competitors but it's basically Jif and Skippy now, with Adams a distant 3rd due to cornering the "natural" peanut butter market (sort of like how Nintendo basically cornered the casual/family market). Although that Adams isn't really like Nintendo, as I'm sure all the Adam's lovers (who hate Jif and Skippy) would be horrified to learn that Adam's is owned and manufactured by the same company as Jif.

Basically as a market matures, there seems to be only space in the public mindshare for only 1-2 major players. Not sure why it happens but it seems to do so fairly regularly. But if I had to take a guess, I'd say it's likely due to how much money is required to participate at that level and the risk is so great that it only takes a few bad products to potentially sink a previously profitable company.

Hence, unless Sony or Microsoft falters, Nintendo won't be able to make a real play for the "hardcore."

Regards,
SB

 

No it isn't. Turning your view away from the TV to get vital information is already annoying, but the distance between the two is significantly different, forcing your eyes to re-focus and taking even more time and slowing down your reactions.

This has been criticized in every other Wii U game already where the feature is just to check maps or inventory and not something as vital as a motion tracker.

 

Did you read beyond that, or stop there? I even precede that comment by pointing out some ideas that seem a good fit aren't really, before going on to present the motion tracker as an example of a gameplay mechanic that doesn't really fit the pad screen despite the obviousness of putting it there.