All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+
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http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=108582345&postcount=2502
XB1 is loosening ground in North America since January.
Aquamarine said:
XB1 is loosening ground in North America since January.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Hard to comment about alternative universes, but in the one we are, they did expected to sell more than 10 million in a year.
I don't think there has been anything weird about their manufacturing, on the contrary actually, they have executed very well. The stock situation is pretty much stabilized, the production level looks to be pretty much at an optimal level at the moment. I'd say at tops minor changes are needed. Right now things are good. Let's get back to their manufacturing issues if they are unable to have plenty of stock during Christmas.
Sony is ahead by 2.5 million after some 5 months, by 2015 they could easily be at 5-6 millions. Microsoft was very aggressive with titanfall and price reductions and yet they couldn't even keep up, crazy?
Microsofts vision isn't selling, they will need to be cheaper than the PS4 if they want to win, and keep the kinect 2 included.
Microsofts vision isn't selling, they will need to be cheaper than the PS4 if they want to win, and keep the kinect 2 included.
djskribbles
Legend
$450 without Kinect is still too expensive. They pretty much sold it for that price for all of March with the Titanfall bundle (and WITH Kinect) and sales per week actually dropped from February. Most retailers even sold the Titanfall bundle for $450, and some even threw in a year of XBL. That pretty much brings the XB1 down below $350. Those are insane prices and the PS4 still managed to comfortably outsell it, and the PS4's supply wasn't even steady all month.
They either need to drop it to $399 with Kinect, or $349 without, if they want to stay competitive with the PS4 in the US/UK (Sony pretty much has the rest of the world in the bag). Or do a permanent $50 price drop of the Titanfall bundle with 1 year of XBL. But I really think that <400 is the magic number. MS already dropped the price in the UK to match the PS4. I think they will definitely announce an official price drop at E3, if not sooner.
It's either take a loss on each unit sold, or keep the price high and accept second place. But I really think that even if they do price it more competitively, the PS4 will still 'win' with its greater worldwide appeal.
They either need to drop it to $399 with Kinect, or $349 without, if they want to stay competitive with the PS4 in the US/UK (Sony pretty much has the rest of the world in the bag). Or do a permanent $50 price drop of the Titanfall bundle with 1 year of XBL. But I really think that <400 is the magic number. MS already dropped the price in the UK to match the PS4. I think they will definitely announce an official price drop at E3, if not sooner.
It's either take a loss on each unit sold, or keep the price high and accept second place. But I really think that even if they do price it more competitively, the PS4 will still 'win' with its greater worldwide appeal.
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Billy Idol
Legend
Imo: price is irrelevant. People also pay much more for iphones compared to other phones without obvious tec advantage.
Problem: kinect is missing games. There is just no real value in kinect. Rare, a first party dev, only manages to pull out a standard kinect sports game with (according to reviewers) suboptimal control implementation, which further suffers from kinect tech deficiencies. Lag and recognition seems still insufficient. Maybe that is why we don't see more sophisticated kinect games...as it is just not possible.
The only chance for MS with X1 imo: focus purely on the casual crowd. But this is not sufficient, as another Wii success seems difficult. So what is imo the solution: casual gamer girls. Make the X1 a girls box and get those millions and millions of potential customers to buy it. They should do research about what would be interesting for she-gamers (we know that he-gamers like FPS games) and use this to make the box fly.
Problem: kinect is missing games. There is just no real value in kinect. Rare, a first party dev, only manages to pull out a standard kinect sports game with (according to reviewers) suboptimal control implementation, which further suffers from kinect tech deficiencies. Lag and recognition seems still insufficient. Maybe that is why we don't see more sophisticated kinect games...as it is just not possible.
The only chance for MS with X1 imo: focus purely on the casual crowd. But this is not sufficient, as another Wii success seems difficult. So what is imo the solution: casual gamer girls. Make the X1 a girls box and get those millions and millions of potential customers to buy it. They should do research about what would be interesting for she-gamers (we know that he-gamers like FPS games) and use this to make the box fly.
Hey thats what I think also yet temesgen was calling it a gamble? that the ps4 will sell more than 10 million in a year
OK perhaps it would of been 1st year
wii u 4million
xbone 30 million
ps4 6 million
if kinect somehow took off (killer app and all that) but unlikely, the demand perhaps would of been there but could MS have made 30million units in the years, thus that 40million figure would of had to shop elsewhere
djskribbles
Legend
Phones have more appeal to the mass market because pretty much everyone has/needs one. In other words, I don't think the casual gamer would be as willing to spend a large sum of money on a home console than they would a phone... it's a much harder sell. Using their internal studios to make games that focus on casual gamers and keeping the price high would be a big mistake IMO. It's too late for that considering the hardware they put into the box and the cost to make it. It's too expensive for most casuals, and its value isn't good enough compared to the competition for most hardcore gamers.
There's no other reason why the PS4 outsold the XB1 in the US other than price/value, in the month of probably their biggest release of the year, a game tailored to the US market in Titanfall. If MS would have simply cut the price to 399 instead of making a Titanfall bundle, I have no doubt that the results would have been much closer, with the XB1 quite possibly even selling more.
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-iPhones actually have very very fast chipsets, and overall, very good tech compared to other phones. iPhones are always fast as hell at release, by far the fastest phone usually at release. They can fall behind a bit to the latest Android over the course of a year, but that's about it. Even the screen on a iPhone is much lauded typically.
To say the iPhone isn't top tech is backwards. And they dont cost more than other flagship smartphones either, unless I'm missing something.
-In phone shopping recently, it occured to me how much tech and hardware drive that market just like any other. If your phone doesn't have the newest/fastest/best, people will be disappointed. Unless they are specifically looking for a cheap phone. There was a lot of disappointment at the SGS5 when it was unveiled because it didn't match the rumors, only 2GB RAM instead of 3GB, only a 1080P screen instead of 2560X as rumored, etc. Even at that, it's expected it has at least class leading specs in everything (1080 screen with latest tech improvements, fastest current chipset etc). If it had released with a step backward 1GB RAM? An uproar!
Game consoles are not the only place where hardware is king. In fact in general one of my pet peeves is hardware rarely gets the credit it deserves in general.
All that said people should know my feelings, I dont feel X1 is so far behind in hardware MS cant do well with it, given some other strengths.
Kinect should be at least $100. $449 without Kinect would be a disaster and not even really make sense from a tech perspective (there's nothing that should make it cost more than PS4, in fact imo it should cost a good deal less due to DDR3, as you'd expect for weaker hardware).
That would be a very tall order. In fact, safe to say not happening. The only way they get cheaper than PS4 is without Kinect. They might be able to match PS4 price with Kinect, if they're willing to take some lumps on profit.
I cant wait for E3 where I assume MS will do something about the price. In fact I'm holding off buying an X1 until then, anticipating a better deal. Too bad it's still over 7 weeks away.
D
Deleted member 11852
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I don't see it either. God only knows how much in the red the Xbox One project is, we know the pad alone ate up $100,000,000 in R&D, mostly on things they tried and rejected, so the entire package - the console, Kinect 2, is probably in the billions.
Reducing what profit margins they have now, or furthering losses, on existing pricing will not help recoup that cost which needs to be fully met before a single dollar of actual profit is made from Xbox One. Based even on the most optimistic profit margin estimates for Xbox One, Microsoft will not even made a dent of covering the R&D cost of the controller! Massive pricing slashes probably aren't figuring heavily in their plans right now. They'll be looking to drive demand/sales with compelling exclusives and E3 is just around the corner.
I doubt XOne project is that much in the red...that's why they're $499. Like PS4, the hardware is likely break even or better at launch, unlike past console gens.
The 100 million for controller R&D was probably some kind of marketing figure. Kind of like Rockstar counting the catering staff when they tell you 1500 people worked on GTA 6, for example. It might be true in some broad sense...
Huh? If they've sold lets say 4m consoles, if they profit $20 on each one, they've made $80m, ignoring the software profits, and all the other countless accessories etc. Do they profit 20 per? Who knows, but it doesn't seem just insane.
Compelling exclusives traditionally do little. Hell that's why I always said Titanfall wasn't going to somehow rescue X1. We have a long history telling us individual software does not change the fate of hardware. This goes back to GameCube, where all the big Nintendo franchises where perennially supposed to rescue it. Never happened.
The biggies to move the needle are hardware, and price...
Major Nelson commented post NPD on reddit, somebody screencapped it and posted it on GAF, it said something like "It's a marathon not a sprint. We know what we need to do". It could be read a million ways, heck you could read it as they know they need more compelling exclusive software, but it read to me like MS is possibly prepping a very big price cut.
Edit: heh wahttya know, a quick google and there's a writeup. the quote
And wow this a really smart comment to Nelson on redditt and sums up my feelings exactly
The 100 million for controller R&D was probably some kind of marketing figure. Kind of like Rockstar counting the catering staff when they tell you 1500 people worked on GTA 6, for example. It might be true in some broad sense...
Huh? If they've sold lets say 4m consoles, if they profit $20 on each one, they've made $80m, ignoring the software profits, and all the other countless accessories etc. Do they profit 20 per? Who knows, but it doesn't seem just insane.
Compelling exclusives traditionally do little. Hell that's why I always said Titanfall wasn't going to somehow rescue X1. We have a long history telling us individual software does not change the fate of hardware. This goes back to GameCube, where all the big Nintendo franchises where perennially supposed to rescue it. Never happened.
The biggies to move the needle are hardware, and price...
Major Nelson commented post NPD on reddit, somebody screencapped it and posted it on GAF, it said something like "It's a marathon not a sprint. We know what we need to do". It could be read a million ways, heck you could read it as they know they need more compelling exclusive software, but it read to me like MS is possibly prepping a very big price cut.
Edit: heh wahttya know, a quick google and there's a writeup. the quote
And wow this a really smart comment to Nelson on redditt and sums up my feelings exactly
D
Deleted member 11852
Guest
The optimistic estimates, or realistic if you trust folks like isupply and IHT - and I do, have the basic cost of components in the devices as bundled at $499 around $20-30 below retail. Of course that excludes sourcing the components and shipping them around, assembly, testing, boxing, stocking/distribution to retail, retail's actual cut, returns/failures, marketing, whatever they paid EAP for Titan Fall exclusivity and bundling it for "free" in their bundle.
So, how exactly are they making a profit?
You're denying system sellers?
Ok.Considering how big their marketing budget has been so far for the Xbox One it seems very unlikely they are anything approaching profitable right now. Hell, there's those figures from Portugal that suggested they spent so much on advertising there it would have been cheaper to give away an Xbox One to every person who bought one.
At this rate I doubt Xbox One will cross 10 million units sold by the end of this year. I'd guess they'll be down around 8M after their second holiday. At the same time I'd expect PS4 to be in the 18-20M range by New Year. To truly reverse that trend will require a more drastic change than I believe Microsoft would entertain. Selling the system without Kinect for $299 might let them keep pace, otherwise they'll just fall further and further behind, but I just can't imagine management authorising such huge losses. I really don't expect E3 heroics. I think they'll draw down their investment and ride out the generation relatively quietly.
At this rate I doubt Xbox One will cross 10 million units sold by the end of this year. I'd guess they'll be down around 8M after their second holiday. At the same time I'd expect PS4 to be in the 18-20M range by New Year. To truly reverse that trend will require a more drastic change than I believe Microsoft would entertain. Selling the system without Kinect for $299 might let them keep pace, otherwise they'll just fall further and further behind, but I just can't imagine management authorising such huge losses. I really don't expect E3 heroics. I think they'll draw down their investment and ride out the generation relatively quietly.
That is extremely pessimistic, almost impossible actually. Hell they're at 5m shipped now. Maybe you're talking about end user sales, but it wont make a huge difference. 360's best quarter, holiday 2011, they shipped 8.2m in those 3 months alone.
I would bet you a whole lot of money X1 will be over 8 million, even 9 million since you say "around 8m" I guess, (shipped, sold too but it's impossible to know this unless MS announces it unlike shipped #'s) by Jan 1 2015
Even selling at an relatively anemic, un E3 price cut-boosted, level would see them ship ~1m per quarter for the next 2, so they'd be at ~7 going into Oct, you're then asking them to ship less than 1m in the biggest Q of the year, again impossible. This year they shipped 3.9 in that Q, and didn't launch until mid-Nov either. If they enact a substantial price cut, which odds are they will, then it's even more ridiculous.
I suppose there's a slight chance they could have under 9 million at the end of 2014. I'd put those odds at perhaps 2%. Heh, been reading 538 lately, love statistical percentages and quantifying...odds.
I suppose if they do absolutely no price cut for the entirety of 2014, the odds of less than 8m are still very very low. The same 2% I'd say, But under 9m, it's actually possible. I'd put those odds at perhaps 30%. But, you have to factor in to all this odds including the chance they do a substantial price cut, and/or major pack in efforts, to boost sales, which odds are also very very high.
I know it's almost impossible to do that, Microsoft is lucky they are printing office and Windows licenses to finance the xb1 right now. But I simply don't see how they can compete with the PS4 without throwing seriously large money after the xb1.
They lost the Hearts and Minds with their absurd drm demands, before they even launched, they completely missed the train on the TV TV TV hdmi in thingy.
And they have not and imho will not convince the gamers that kinect 2 adds value worth paying for. Which leaves them with a out powered expensive console that only can compete on price.
And they are behind on the included services as well.. E3 will really have to be mind blowing in order to regain ground, and Sony will have screw up badly on their E3 as well.
That is extremely pessimistic, almost impossible actually. Hell they're at 5m shipped now. Maybe you're talking about end user sales, but it wont make a huge difference. 360's best quarter, holiday 2011, they shipped 8.2m in those 3 months alone.
I would bet you a whole lot of money X1 will be over 8 million, even 9 million since you say "around 8m" I guess, (shipped, sold too but it's impossible to know this unless MS announces it unlike shipped #'s) by Jan 1 2015
Since Dec 31 to middle of April they went from 3.9M shipped to 5M shipped. Really small jump that clearly showcases that public interest in console is low. And that was including their largest flagship "saviour" title!
In the next 5 months they have... what? Watch_Dogs, Project Spark, few low impact multiplat games [Wolfenstein, Evil Within, Murder Soul Suspect], ESOnline, and finally Destiny at end. Every single of those multiplat games will sell better on PS4.
8-9m shipped until end of 2014 is realistic, but MS will definable wont be happy with that. They need both strong holiday sales and not to allow Sony to create too large buffer over summer [where they will also release TLOU Remaster]. I think that E3/Gamescom pricedrop is incoming.
That is extremely pessimistic, almost impossible actually. Hell they're at 5m shipped now. Maybe you're talking about end user sales, but it wont make a huge difference. 360's best quarter, holiday 2011, they shipped 8.2m in those 3 months alone.
I would bet you a whole lot of money X1 will be over 8 million, even 9 million since you say "around 8m" I guess, (shipped, sold too but it's impossible to know this unless MS announces it unlike shipped #'s) by Jan 1 2015
Even selling at an relatively anemic, un E3 price cut-boosted, level would see them ship ~1m per quarter for the next 2, so they'd be at ~7 going into Oct, you're then asking them to ship less than 1m in the biggest Q of the year, again impossible. This year they shipped 3.9 in that Q, and didn't launch until mid-Nov either. If they enact a substantial price cut, which odds are they will, then it's even more ridiculous.
I suppose there's a slight chance they could have under 9 million at the end of 2014. I'd put those odds at perhaps 2%. Heh, been reading 538 lately, love statistical percentages and quantifying...odds.
I suppose if they do absolutely no price cut for the entirety of 2014, the odds of less than 8m are still very very low. The same 2% I'd say, But under 9m, it's actually possible. I'd put those odds at perhaps 30%. But, you have to factor in to all this odds including the chance they do a substantial price cut, and/or major pack in efforts, to boost sales, which odds are also very very high.
First, I said "SOLD" and that's what I meant. I don't care what their shipped figures are as they have proven a proclivity for stuffing the channel when it suits their needs. In any case, they can't simply overship forever. The retailers are already at the limits of what they'll accept.
Second, they sold 3 million in their first month, and took another three months to sell their next million. With the Titanfall bump behind them, and a much worse summer software outlook than the PS4 I think they'll very likely sell less than 2M more units over the next 6 months. That would put them under 6M going into the Holiday quarter, during which I don't expect them to approach launch level sales, especially when it doesn't look like Halo 5 will be there to anchor Christmas as originally implied.
Going by current trends PS4 will be the hot console next Christmas. There will be no question, no trepidation about which system is the place to be anymore. Microsoft is also unlikely to benefit from production shortages on the Sony side at that point. Given that, I think a 2-3M Holiday quarter is a pretty generous estimate, putting them between 8 and 9M overall by the end of the year. I would err on the low side.
And as I said, this all assumes Microsoft doesn't take any truly drastic corrective measures to change their fortunes. But it would take something huge, like a $299 Xbox One to meaningfully impact my predictions here.
PS4 as of April 6th 2014 - 7M WW
2.9M USA (41%)
0.5M Japan (7%)
3.6M Rest of the world (52%)
Xbone as of December 31 2013 - 3M WW
1.8M USA (61%)
1.2M Rest of the world (39%)
With first 3 months of 2014 NPDs and "5M shipped" we have this calculation:
2.5M USA
1.7M Rest [only if ratio remains 39%]
~0.8M unaccounted ["shipped"]
Sony is slapping them senseless outside USA, where ironically consoles are still much harder to be found than in NA.
2.9M USA (41%)
0.5M Japan (7%)
3.6M Rest of the world (52%)
Xbone as of December 31 2013 - 3M WW
1.8M USA (61%)
1.2M Rest of the world (39%)
With first 3 months of 2014 NPDs and "5M shipped" we have this calculation:
2.5M USA
1.7M Rest [only if ratio remains 39%]
~0.8M unaccounted ["shipped"]
Sony is slapping them senseless outside USA, where ironically consoles are still much harder to be found than in NA.
First month launch sales aren't a good barometer. You'll have fans buying a system then regardless of long-term value. If the machine is considered none-too-hot by consumers in the coming year, it could see a very weak Holiday, just like Wii U which sold something like half as much on its second Holiday quarter. XB1 could sell anything from far more to far less this upcoming Q3.
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