All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+
- Thread starter Rangers
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Hmm, yes and no. I don't have real data so this is entirely opinion. Sony is hungry, let's be honest about it. They can easily look at their PSN stats and very quickly determine how many upgraded from PS3 to PS4. And you know how many converted from Xbox for instance. The most important aspect for Sony is to have their customers continually pay for PSN, make rentals from PS Now, and purchase games. Last thing you want is to have users buy your console and do nothing with it.
Let's look at some numbers temporarily, and talk about last months NPD where 360 and Xbox One owners purchased more games than Playstation owners did despite the install base being at least 500K larger.
As of a snapshot of December It's clear that Xbox Owners are willing to spend. Grabbing those Xbox owners will be pivotal to having more revenue over all. So why not fight for them while you have free and fantastic positive press and your competitor still hampered by negative press. It's clear you won't have many PS3 owners jumping to Xbox one. You only have Xbox to really gain here.
Like MS they are looking at revenue streams, If the attach rate for games and PSN services are much higher in United States than globally that is going to be where he majority of your profit lies.
United States is the real battleground (for sure for MS), because selling bundles and having deals in the United States in their minds isn't considered a loss but in other regions it could be. Sony has also had a specific number of bundles IIRC are specific to US so that should say a lot about the potential revenue from the US market.
This is a valid point, when looking at the console in isolation. There will always be individuals that will stick to their product like myself. But that doesn't make this particular market segment of loyalists a lost cause either. Sony is still in a position where they could have complete dominance. The right moves and I will be buying one as well to just simply not miss out.
We can't assume Sony would be releasing aggressively priced bundles, if MS weren't doing the same. They would have very little motive to do so.
At a cost. How high and how well can Sony afford it? If they price too aggressively too quickly, they damage future pricing for the rest of the generation.
To reach a larger, cheaper audience. Those who want a PS4 but won't pay for a standalone and a separate game can be wooed either with a price-drop or a suitable bundled game, and the latter is cheaper. Even if there was no competition in the console space, Sony would still have to drop their prices over time to reach the audience. Some people plain flat won't spend more than $300/$250/$200 on a new console and Sony (or anyone else) would have to hit those price points to sell to those people.
This is true.
Mind you, the basis for my opinion was the sellout of PS4s in Germany, France etc reported earlier. In those regions were they receive no deals, and Xbox is pretty much moot. Why not stock more there if to just sell the hardware, the demand is greater than the supply in those regions.
But in the US, you can always find a PS4 available and now bundled.
That's sort of what I meant by a reaction (but not an overreaction), when something is in that much of a favour for you, they went as far to under supply those regions (not reacting) to make sure that US was well stocked, and bundled (reacting). A severe price drop would be over reacting. And I agree that eventually the price of the console needs to come down or you will never reach the full market, but I'd be speaking hyperbole in attempting to figure out which price drops/bundles are a reaction and which ones are about reaching market growth.
I still don't think it's a reaction. I think that's the regional sales team doing their thing. They look at their sales and tweak. At most, the drop in XB1 price has maybe made consumers hope for a cheaper PS4, and maybe Sony (SCEA) need to wave a few carrots around. But I'm confident they have their eyes firmly on the consumers and not at all on the rivals.
Without competition, they would have nothing to compare their sales with, and therefore no motive to drop prices. Which as we all know is something that impacts profits directly.
With MS trying to play the 'we sold more' card, Sony of course had to keep up. MS's bundles were also pretty damn good so it would look like Sony weren't willing to give as much value to their customers as MS was.
Rurouni
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There was probably an element of reaction, but it was mostly just your typical holiday sale thing where companies try to offer more value in that time period.
If the latest MS promotional round have a big effect, like MS finally manage to make it near 1:1 in the US then I'm sure Sony would react stronger. But the problem isn't about whether Sony would react, but how. My biggest question mark is that whether Sony would follow MS by making US only promo or apply whatever strategy they have in mind as a permanent thing (price drop? More bundles?) thus would affect the strategy globally?
If the latest MS promotional round have a big effect, like MS finally manage to make it near 1:1 in the US then I'm sure Sony would react stronger. But the problem isn't about whether Sony would react, but how. My biggest question mark is that whether Sony would follow MS by making US only promo or apply whatever strategy they have in mind as a permanent thing (price drop? More bundles?) thus would affect the strategy globally?
I don't think you were paying much attention then. The rankings on amazon were much closer in December than in November. Remember the PS4 was bundle-less and $399 for most of November while it had at least one bundled game all of December. Before Black Friday the PS4 was barely in the top 40 in hourly rankings while in December is was almost always in or near the top ten. So if the gap was 400k in November it would have to be less than that by a significant amount in December, it seems it was roughly 50%.
That is not surprising if you think about it. These games were released prior to December so most of the sales were to new console owners. If the XB1 sold 20% more consoles it stands it would likely sell 20% more of MP games.
Like I said before I think many of the Xbox One buyer wanted to buy an Xbox One but not at 399 dollars. I don't think there are many people changing buying decision from PS4 to XB1 because of the promotion.
This is why PS4 december sales are strong...
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RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
Yep. And the incredibly strong sales of the 360 and 360 software indicate that the PS4 hasn't gained their sales from people changing platforms. The sales for Nov & Dec also indicate that price of the Xb0x was a barrier to entry for 360 users.
Regardless of whether you think MS had planned all along to "continue this promotion" or make the price cut "permanent", the sales in Nov & Dec were able to flip the script and change the narrative. Multiple stories were trickling out from the crazy fringe internet sites and making their way into main stream media that the Xb0x was essentially dead in the water and the negative momentum was unstoppable. Those stories have all now gone back in their holes and you'll have to go back to the fringe fanboy sites to read comments about the Xb0x being dead ala Zune, etc.
Personally, I think MS made the price reduction a limited time promotion (and they actually ran different ones throughout Nov & Dec), because they didn't know which factor would increase sales. Price cut? Free games? Free Live Subscriptions? Combinations? Now they've got two months worth of data they can analyze to determine how they need to proceed. If the results of their Holiday efforts were along the lines of the original fake neogaf predictions, they'd be scrambling to come up with an entirely different strategy. Probably including scrapping the Xb0x entirely.
D
Deleted member 11852
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Before commissioning the PlayStation 4 Sony will have done extensive market research the console market and gamer's habits wider. This research would have informed the PS4's specifications and its features. Sony would have had target sales figures for the first two years, perhaps even three - and these predictions would have been made early and adjusted for as the project developed, right up until launch. And after - no doubt Sony have heavily revised their second year sales based on their first.
It is against these projections that they know if they are doing well or not. Sony's goal is not to beat Microsoft at any cost, Sony's goal is to make as much money as they can from PlayStation 4. Selling consoles to people who buy games and other content. They don't even need to sell the most consoles, although beating the other guy is always nice but only fanboys care about this stuff. CEOs, accountants and investors care about profits and bottom lines.
Sony will not to drop the price of PlayStation 4 any sooner than they think is necessary, which is when sales drop below a level that they like. If you let your strategy be dictated by the other guy, you can't win. Remember all those analysts saying Apple was doomed if they didn't realise a super cheap iPhone to compete with super cheap Android phones?
Xbox One certainly has momentum but there's no evidence that this is at the expense of PlayStation 4. It's not as though the market is saturated and Microsoft and Sony are fighting over the last few remaining consumers. Sony also have momentum - 18.5m after 13 months is astonishing and there were no figures to suggest it'd peak that high by years end. I.e, the platform also has sales momentum.
How are we defining momentum?
Cutting the price is not momentum, it is just spurring sales. When the price goes back up by $50 and sales plummet - that is evidence against momentum. Now they cut the price again two weeks later. At this point MS is just in a horse race in NA. They are trying to hold their ground in their backyard. Sony is on cruise control, they want sales but not at the expense of profit margin.
Momentum, in my opinion, is selling consoles at MSRP without incentives or big software releases.
Cutting the price is not momentum, it is just spurring sales. When the price goes back up by $50 and sales plummet - that is evidence against momentum. Now they cut the price again two weeks later. At this point MS is just in a horse race in NA. They are trying to hold their ground in their backyard. Sony is on cruise control, they want sales but not at the expense of profit margin.
Momentum, in my opinion, is selling consoles at MSRP without incentives or big software releases.
Another factor will be when the 20nm process will be ready for mass production with the 1gb GDDR5 ready for 2015 the cost of production will decrease for PS4. Maybe end of 2015 the PS4 price and Xbox One price will be 299 dollars/euro.
MS is very aggressive maybe a 249 dollars in US end of 2015...
MS is very aggressive maybe a 249 dollars in US end of 2015...
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Deleted member 11852
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I'm using sales momentum because it's the only objective metric which is actually measurable. Demand, interest, the number of fairies dancing on the head of the GPU - all subjective.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Yup. The trend at Amazon would seem to indicate that the crash in sales for XBO (relative to PS4) in January are likely what led to MS re-instating the "temporary" 349 USD price point for the US.
As seen in the latest monthly update for Amazon.
10 - PS4 (up 5 spots)
16 - XBO: AC (unchanged)
Basically with the higher price point, any momentum they had from the holiday shopping season is rapidly deteriorating.
Regards,
SB
Silent_Buddha
Legend
So, Xbox One 1.29M PS4 1.065M.
About what I expected for December from watching the Amazon monthly ranking. XBO would still hold the lead, but PS4 would have closed the gap a bit.
Had Sony not responded to Microsoft's 349 bundles, then Dec. likely would have turned out more like Nov. with a potential for an even bigger gap between XBO and PS4 console sales. However, with Sony responding with a bundled package partway through Dec. (I believe it was introduced in the 2nd week of Dec.?) that managed to swing a fair bit more sales their way prior to the month ending.
Prior to that PS4 bundle being introduced partway through Dec., XBO appeared to be widening the gap between itself and PS4 in the first week of December (at least going by Amazon rankings).
Regards,
SB
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Ah yes and our yearly domination of yearly sales by COD continues. And that despite all the other games in the list having been on sale for longer than COD: AW (Super Smash Bros. 3DS launched first in Oct. while the Wii-U version came out later on the 22nd of Nov.).
Good luck next year for any title and/or IP wanting to displace that franchise as the most desired franchise in the US at least.
And as expected it takes the top monthly spot for Dec. And likely will take the top spot for Jan. and Feb. and potentially more months after that.
Also somewhat interesting that no single SKU title managed to crack the top 10 of the combined SKU rankings Dec. The last time that happened was Aug. 2014. Nov. had the most with 3 single SKU titles cracking the top 10 of combined SKU rankings.
Regards,
SB
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A temporary $50 sale with not end date...is a price cut in my book. Are they serious with their semantic? It reminds me another Microsoft twisted semantic with 'deal with a duration' instead of 'timed exclusivity'...
Interestingly PS4 is also using a temporary regular price until the inevitable price cut.
Interestingly PS4 is also using a temporary regular price until the inevitable price cut.
The limited time 349 was publicized using by-the-book pressure sale tactics, hurry up this is your last chance to get it at such an amazing price. The Uncertainty for gamers was how long to wait for the next price drop? E3? Earlier?
The gamers who were planning to buy it anyway, but waiting for a price drop, would have been wise to get it in nov/dec regardless of the false pressure. There's a chance it will still have a positive ripple effect in the US, the friends of those who finally took the plunge will now consider it. It starts the chain. But OTOH, the pressure sale tactic could also backfire in the future, MS won't be taken seriously next time. (just like they're not being taken seriously about any form of exclusivity today).
The gamers who were planning to buy it anyway, but waiting for a price drop, would have been wise to get it in nov/dec regardless of the false pressure. There's a chance it will still have a positive ripple effect in the US, the friends of those who finally took the plunge will now consider it. It starts the chain. But OTOH, the pressure sale tactic could also backfire in the future, MS won't be taken seriously next time. (just like they're not being taken seriously about any form of exclusivity today).
Next step is to announce it for "4 easy payments of $99" with a countdown timer at the bottom of the screen.
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