All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Shifty Geezer]

I must be misunderstanding both of your comments... so please forgive me. But what pent up demand did 360 have over XB1? XB360 was released November 2005.

In the cart/numbers, the first couple of months, the most important for XB1 by a long chalk, 360 sold really badly because it was heavily supply constrained. So comparing those two months (as per the chart), it looks one-sided in favour of XB1's demand being far higher, but in truth that one-sidedness isn't caused by actual consumer interest.

 

[Rangers]

Please correct me if I'm wrong... around September 2006, XB360 sold 5.9 million systems worldwide. So, XB1 is still under 6 million sold. Not that great... not that great at all.

How do you know Xbox One (or X360 in 2006) worldwide sales? Answer: You dont.

Last gen worldwide 360 shipments tended to be about double USA sales. By that rule of thumb X1 has probably shipped (not sold) ~7 million by now.

Even using shipments numbers, we can easily see X1 is almost certainly ahead. It shipped 5.1 million it's first two quarters, last quarter they combined the shipments but it was 1.1, and they haven't reported the September quarter which should be a healthier quarter. There's no way X1 only shipped 800k in the last 6 months. US sales alone easily top that during that period.

No supply constraint on launch for Xbone, but after launch it sold worse than X360.

Demand is demand. That consumer who couldn't get an X360 in November 2005 then should have picked one up in March 2006 or something. If 360 hadn't been as supply constrained in holiday 2005, it's early 2006 sales might have looked markedly worse without that pent up demand. The sales dont go anywhere, at some point the sales are the sales. By this point in 2006 360 was long since not supply constrained, and had sold significantly less through that period than Xbox One.

XB360 was released November 2005, and sold 5.9 million by September 2006... while XB1 was released November 2013, and sold roughly ~5.6 million this past September.

I dont know where you're getting this XB1 sold number. At best you're mixing and matching who knows what and comparing that to a X360 shipped number, and then comparing not like for like.

Here's what we know factually:

360 shipped (I assume), you say 5.9, I have it at 6.0 for it's first four quarters.

X1 shipped 5.1 it's first two quarters.

In it's third quarter, MS did not give a X1 number, only a 360+X1 combined number, which was 1.1.

MS has not revealed any September shipments yet. Those should come next week? Soon anyway.

It would be pretty difficult for X1 to not have shipped >900K over April-September. It's USA sales alone were about 900k in that period.

As for end user sales, well, ignoring Japan, the only ones we have from NPD show a substantial lead for X1 gen over gen.

All that said, that lead curve is flattening to some extent, but it still exists.

 

[Shortbread]

How do you know Xbox One (or X360 in 2006) worldwide sales? Answer: You dont.

You don't know. The XB1 was ~5.6 million units sold by 9/6, and PS4 was at 10.3 million units sold worldwide at that time. And I really don't give a sh** if you believe me or not, the fact is it may have shipped 7-8 million into retail channels, but that has nothing to do with actual sold through numbers.

And 5.6 million units sold isn't shocking, since the XB360 was around 5.9 million during that time period. And we don't have to go into the reasoning why XB360 sold better... that ship has sailed.

Edit: FYI, AP and Fox Business also reported these numbers around that time as well.

 

[AzBat]

Did a search for Xbox One sales announcements between Sept 5 & Sep 8(a weekend). Most referenced a "5 million" sold compared to a "10 million" sold, but it wasn't confirmed by MS. One article did mentioned that we got an official "5 million" sold in April.

The closest Fox Business article I found was this on Sept 10...

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2014/09/10/report-microsoft-in-talks-to-buy-minecraft-maker/

It just mentions the 5 million figure MS gave out in April.

But I think you were actually thinking of this Fox Business article from Sept 18. It's using "market research firm" VGChartz as a source to make the following claim...

"Sony has sold 10.3 million PlayStation 4 consoles as of Sept. 6, almost double the sales of Microsoft Corp's XBox One"

I think the 5 million figure used by all the articles I've seen seem to just reference the official announcement from Microsoft on March NPD results...

http://news.xbox.com/2014/04/xbox-one-march-npd

I would find it VERY hard to believe that MS hasn't sold through to customers more than 6 million worldwide since April.

Tommy McClain

 

[Shortbread]

I believe I was watching Fox Business when they mentioned it... something about MS internal numbers being 5.6 million at that time (9/6/2014). Which was also quoted by other industry veterans (vendors), during the interview. The interview was mostly about the "state of Sony" and where it's headed.

As for VGChartz, they don't get anything correct - until, other sources prove it otherwise. Which is what happend. Trust me on that...

Edit: My view, is MS (XB1) will hit 6.1 million by the end of October. But that's just my opinion based on what I have seen.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I believe I was watching Fox Business when they mentioned it...

Is Fox Business at all reputable? The consensus seems to be that Fox News is a joke, so by association I wouldn't trust Fox Business as a reliable source unless it's something very different. The fact they reference VGChartz kinda supports that view...

 

[temesgen]

It's hardly surprising that people are abandoning the PS3 -one of the last ports, Alien Isolation, can attest to the fact that it was a quite difficult machine to work with, the game looks really bad.

Talking of the Xbox 360, this is good news -not to good for the Wii-..., because the Xbox 360 is only a few units behind the original Wii in sales (USA) now.

Wii 41.84M
Xbox 360 41.72M

So you're going to use a game that many people are not overly excited about as proof that people are not interested in PS3 anymore and not because it lacks games but because the developers are struggling to port titles to it??? If development difficulty was a factor in consumer's purchasing decisions why did the PS2 do so well? I strongly doubt that development difficulty factors at all into consumers purchasing decision unless that difficulty manifest itself in materially weaker versions of games and not one off but the more like the norm.

That is unless you are saying developers are not supporting the PS3 and if that is the case I can't say I've noticed any real changes in the level of support. Although DF doesn't seem to be doing comparisons of 360 to PS3 much any more. That said most of the more recent comparisons between 360 and PS3 are close enough not to ruffle any feathers even if we do get baseless rabid comments here suggesting the PS3 is responsible for 2/3rds of the development budget.

If anything the game you're referencing is not the norm, most multiplats are basically equal at this point, perhaps due to better tools, more experience with the hardware among other reasons.

Edit:

It appears more PS3 owners have migrated to PS4 than 360 owners to XB1 but its also true more 360 owners have also migrated to PS4 rather than an XB1. Lots of factors at play but I'd prefer not to have another run at the unhappy PS3 owners meme... its BS.

 

[AzBat]

Here are the only articles I could find giving a 5.6 million number...

"PS4 outsells Xbox One in April"
May 15, 2014

But updated lifetime hardware sales figures were not released by either company. However, Microsoft said that the Xbox One has sold 76 percent more units than its predecessor in its first six months on sale, meaning lifetime Xbox One sales may be as high as 5.6 million units considering the Xbox 360 had sold 3.2 million units by the end of Microsoft's second quarter in 2006.

http://www.cnet.com/news/ps4-outsells-xbox-one-in-april-while-microsoft-leads-in-software/

"PS4: 2-to-1 Lifetime Lead Over Xbox One in HW Sales, 3-to-1 in Game Sales"
August 1, 2014

But we know that Xbox One sales rose in May and doubled in June. So something around 170K in May and 340K in June is a reasonable estimate. That gives us a total of around 625K Xbox Ones (and 475K Xbox 360s) for the quarter. That in turn gives lifetime sales of around 5.6 million units. That's about the average guess. It could vary in the 5.5 to 5.8 million range, but it's highly unlikely to have reached 6 million.

http://www.dailytech.com/PS4+2to1+L...+HW+Sales+3to1+in+Game+Sales/article36322.htm

Shifty: I wouldn't say it's a consensus. It just depends on which way your political affiliations slant. I wouldn't say they are better or worse than the rest of the news organizations. All of them depend on their sources. That's why I've always looked for. Find them & make your opinions based on that.

To me it sounds like that if the 5.6 million figured was mentioned in early September on a TV news program, then it was most likely based on older data. The only way we'll probably ever get confirmation is from a MS quarterly earnings report.

Tommy McClain

 

[temesgen]

This holiday will be interesting, MS can afford to cut price and or offer bundles to provide incentives for consumers to buy XB1. Sony might be inclined to do the same or the realities of their financial situation might lead them to holding steady and making money off hardware.

At the end of the day the install base won't matter too much if it isn't possible to generate a profit and in fact it might not be feasible for Sony to participate in a price war with MS for obvious reasons.

 

[Shortbread]

Is Fox Business at all reputable? The consensus seems to be that Fox News is a joke, so by association I wouldn't trust Fox Business as a reliable source unless it's something very different. The fact they reference VGChartz kinda supports that view...

Fox News Corp, is somewhat a joke amongst Democrats, but a worthy news source for Republicans. Either way, all media corporations in my view have an agenda...

Anyhow, we know XB1 has sold about 3.4 million units in the U.S. as of last week. If you take all the XB1 territories outside the U.S., combined them, they would not surpass the XB1 U.S. sales. From what I heard, there is almost 760k unit difference between them.

 

[Strange]

Fox News Corp, is somewhat a joke amongst Democrats, but a worthy news source for Republicans. Either way, all media corporations in my view have an agenda...

That's mainly if there's a political viewpoint in the news. If one ignores the commentaries and the opinions, and focus on the facts, they should be fine for simply finding facts.

 

[zed]

Where do you get that I'm blaming Sony now? Now I'm blaming NPD. I believe NPD is pressuring any leakers, currently, not any company.

Back when they initially stopped releasing hardware numbers publically though there were basically a lot of rumors it was Sony. That was back when PS3 was doing poorly, so the idea was Sony was tired of the monthly bashing, and pressured NPD to stop releasing hardware numbers. No I dont have any evidence. It's just something I remember from the time.

mate in the US, the ps3 was always doing poorly as in the worse/last place, look back over the data IIRC ps3 lost like many months a row before then? so youre saying after years they said enuf is enuf lets stop this

I just had a google

heres the month when NPD said no numbers, sep 2010 (oct 10th 2010 the news date AFAIKS)
Xbox 360 - 483,989
Playstation 3 - 312,000
Wii - 254,000

OK to refresh your memory for years before it had been (as Im sure you will agree)
wii >>>> xbox360 >>>>> ps3

now we have this scenario where nintnedo goes from #1 -> #3 and sony goes from #3 -> #2
yet all of a sudden its sony that wants to stop the numbers
Does it sound logical to you? they improve ranking the other japanese company goes from first to last (but its not them its sony )

personally Like I said back then its NPD

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Why is that amazing? I was actually going to say the opposite. The X360 has a ~42M install base in the US, vs ~4M PS4s. And the PS4 actually outsold the X360 in August. Curious which version sold the most overall. I think it's very possible that the PS4 still sold the most copies, because the bulk of sales are usually in the first few weeks.

Obviously install base never translates to software sales 1:1, but that's a significant difference in install base.

In which case the PS3 should also have eclipsed the PS4 as it has a significantly larger install base as well.

The fact is that most software is sold (on a per console install base) near the start of a generation, especially for "core" gamers. It's pretty notable anytime that isn't the case.

And to clarify some things that I probably should have gone more in depth about.

I also pointed out Disney's title as doing better on X360/PS3/WiiU than the PS4. And it's somewhat correlated to what I said above. Except in this case it isn't notable because "core" buyers bought it more often on an old system rather than a new one, but it points to the fact that it's a casual/childrens game. And potential buyers for that are far less likely to feel the need to upgrade to the latest and greatest console. But it is still notable none-the-less.

And outlines my point. There is absolutely nothing surprising or notable about PS4 outselling XBO or even X360 across all EA sports titles. Especially when some of them already tended to do better on the Playstation platform relative to install base (FIFA for example) anyway.

And that isn't to diminish PS4s performance this generation. It is selling phenomenally well and thus also selling software phenomenally well. Again making it notable when an obsolete console outsells it on a multi-platform "core" title. But also making it not news worthy when it sells the most titles in any given multi-platform title lineup, especially when compared to its current gen competition.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shortbread]

Amazon 100 Best Sellers as of 10/21
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ In The Top 20
#1 PlayStation Store Gift Card
#4 Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor PS4
#5 Bayonetta 2 Wii U
#6 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare XB1
#8 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare PS4
#10 PS4 Game System
#12 Halo: Master Chief Collection XB1
#18 Super Smash Bros Wii U
#19 Xbox Live Gold Card
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ In The Top 40
#23 PS4 Destiny Bundle
#26 Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor XB1
#28 FIFA 15 PS4
#29 XB1 Game System
#30 Mario Kart 8 Wii U
#32 Grand Theft Auto V PS4
#36 Destiny PS4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ In The Top 60
#44 Destiny XB1
#46 The Last of US PS4
#47 Assassins’s Creed Unity PS4
#54 The Evil Within PS4
#56 Hyrule Warriors Wii U
#59 Sunset Overdrive Day One Edition XB1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ In The Top 80
#64 Wolfenstein: The New Order PS4
#65 Assassins’s Creed Unity XB1
#66 Madden NFL 15 PS4
#69 XB1 Sunset Overdrive Bundle
#71 FarCry 4 PS4
#74 XB1 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare Bundle
#77 Madden NFL 15 XB1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ In The Top 100
#81 Battlefield 4 XB1
#83 Infamous: Second Son PS4
#89 Grand Theft Auto V XB1
#90 Killzone: Shadow Fall PS4
#94 Wii U Game System
#96 Dragon Age Inquisition PS4

PS4: 14 Games (2 system sku's)
XB1: 9 Games ( 3 system sku's)
Wii U: 4 Games (1 system sku)

 

[Deleted member 86764]

#74 XB1 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare Bundle

I'm surprised it's so low in the charts. Have Microsoft not started a marketing campaign for Advanced Warfare yet? That's a very inviting bundle, but charting really low.

 

[Rangers]

I'm surprised it's so low in the charts. Have Microsoft not started a marketing campaign for Advanced Warfare yet? That's a very inviting bundle, but charting really low.

Not sure how it's inviting, it's the reverse, as there's no cost savings (it's $499). Unlike say the Sunset Overdrive bundle where you're getting the game for free.

I guess you're paying $60 for COD and $40 for the bigger hard drive and COD paint job.

That said I've heard a few people in real life mention this bundle, so some COD bros will "jump in" to current gen with it no doubt, but judging by it's Amazon position it wont be a huge seller.


Speaking of Amazon, the Xbone version of COD:AW has been slightly ahead of PS4 one on Amazon. So maybe a Destiny-like situation, a bit surprising if XOne AW outsells PS4 in NPD, and I guess we will know cause we will still get software top ten with systems ranking.

And Sunset Overdrive is #50 with a week til release. I'll keep watch but maybe not as horrible as it was looking.

Master Chief Collection also looking strong #11 with 3 weeks until release.

 

[DrJay24]

And Sunset Overdrive is #50 with a week til release. I'll keep watch but maybe not as horrible as it was looking.

That's pretty bad relative to the Destiny bundle which was in the top 20 for weeks beforehand.

 

[function]

Sunset Overdrive looks like both:
1) A great game, and
2) Not particularly mainstream.

It looks like the kind of game I'd normally buy, then not be able to find anyone to play it with.

 

[Shortbread]

Speaking of Amazon, the Xbone version of COD:AW has been slightly ahead of PS4 one on Amazon. So maybe a Destiny-like situation, a bit surprising if XOne AW outsells PS4 in NPD, and I guess we will know cause we will still get software top ten with systems ranking.

COD:AW sales - just like any other major AAA title release will pick up more sales around launch week. The question becomes: will it eclipse Ghost in launch day sales numbers? So far the answer is - no. Preorders are lower (35-37% lower) when compared to Ghost. That’s not to say COD:AW will not be successful, because it will be… it’s just lacking the overall hype/need/wanting as seen with Destiny or previous Call of Duty games.

And Sunset Overdrive is #50 with a week til release. I'll keep watch but maybe not as horrible as it was looking.

I’m not going to even sugarcoat it… preorders on this look mediocre. The game looks awesome to play… hopefully word of mouth and positive media reviews will push this game.

Master Chief Collection also looking strong #11 with 3 weeks until release.

This title has the greatest chance on pushing XB1 units… more so than any other XB1 bundle. Hopefully nostalgia and the updated IQ will bring them in.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Sunset Overdrive looks like both:
1) A great game, and
2) Not particularly mainstream.

It looks like the kind of game I'd normally buy, then not be able to find anyone to play it with.

Sunset Overdrive is the very definition of a niche game. Despite being ultra creative and looking like a whole boatload of amazing fun.

It looks great, and perhaps with the right marketing it can go on to become a cult hit.

But without MS pushing it with their big first party marketing coffers, the game would have undeniably not done too well, even had it been multiplatform.

Insomniac going exclusive with MS was the absolutely right thing for that game.