All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Rangers]

Do we know that PS4 is 2:1 in the US? As far as I understand it's just hearsay on Gaf. If true and PS4 is selling at a rate of 3:1 on the Xbox, the whole situation is a disaster for Microsoft - it's not like they're making any more profit on each machine than Sony either.

To be honest with you, it's a bit of a sad state of affairs; if Sony completely monopolise then there's never going to be much of a need for them to ever excel with hardware again.

Both companies bet on camera tech this time around and it really hasn't worked out... Bring on E3, I want to see Microsoft throw everything at it (minus American Football, TV, etc.)

Here's how you would do the rough calculations. These are estimates of course.

A good assumption I think so far for X1 is it'll do about 60% as many sales outside US as in. I think that number came from when they announced 3million WW sales, you could compare to NPD at that point.

So you could guesstimate it sold .6X115 outside USA in April, which gives ~70k, so USA +world~185k. Working with such gross estimations we could be tempted to round it off to 200k.

For PS4, it sells much better in Europe, probably ~1:1 with USA, or perhaps even better. So right away you're at 200k (NPD) +200k (EU estimate)=400k. Plus throw some in Japan, round up a lot (probably warranted with strong international sales), maybe you're at 500k.

That's basically all it is, but it's probably a decent guesstimate.

I know for 360, MS worldwide shipments tended to be about 2X USA NPD sales throughout. So that's another guide. I mean it held right to the end, 360 was at 84m shipped and I think 40 or 41m sold in NPD lately. XOne probably isn't far off that pattern, last ship total at March was 5.1m, and walla, NPD LTD was ~half that.

Ship totals probably have a lot of cruft in them though, so I wouldn't necessarily assume Xone is currently doubling NPD sales worldwide. Even if it was that's only 230k which isn't grossly off from our estimates.

Just thinking, it probably works for Sony ship too. PS3 did ~25m LTD in NPD IIRC, and is probably around the same 80-85m WW ship as 360. 3X25m gets you to 75m or close enough (PS3 NPD LTD is probably higher than 25m too, dont have those numbers offhand).

So by that basis Sony might have sold 600k WW on 200k NPD, but using that higher Ship:NPD method would put X1 at 230k using like for like estimations. I think that's reasonable. Either way it looks like 2.5/3-1.

 

[liolio]

I'm not sure we should look for a milestone announcement from MS. It's not in their best interests when they're clearly trailing. Take a look at their NPD PR statement - it's all about relative performance. Announcing 5 million months after your rival has announced 7 million isn't a going to garner lots of positive press. It'll instead highlight the discrepancy. I suppose a milestone could happen if MS felt it was in their best interests. eg. 5 million vs. 7 million would show there to be less difference than some are feeling by looking at trends.

Overall though, I don't expect Sony nor MS to announce many milestones. Sony at 10 million is all I expect.

Well 5 millions ain't that bad, it is more than a lot of previous systems, it would be in fact a great news.
Sony is doing greater, but as long as they are doing well it is not that troublesome, it should be a long race.
The thing is that they might not have reached that figure, they are not supplied limited and demand crumbled. Reaching 5 millions would have meant that whereas the XB1 is not doing as great as the ps4 it was by all reference we still doing pretty great. Reaching the figure would have meant the sale trend was solid.

Though that is my reading of things, looking at them close to "eol" of anything Kinect I feel like my bet is really likely to be true. Yet only a bet it is

 

[Brad Grenz]

Look, let's ignore last year and work just with what we know about the first quarter of 2014 to generate estimates.

We know PS4 had sold 4.2M before the beginning of the year, and 7 million by the first week of April. So from January-March about 2.8M PS4s sold. Out of that we know from NPD around 900K were sold in the US, so TWICE as many sold outside the US. Extrapolating from there to April might assume that 200K selling in the US per NPD would give us around 400K selling everywhere else, for a total of 600K Worldwide.

For Xbox One if we generously assume assume the shipped numbers we have for Xbox One in the first quarter equal the number sold. That gives us 1.2M minus the amount we have from NPD of about 725K meaning the amount that sells outside the US is around 60% of the NPD number. So extrapolating from 115K in the US gives us about 185K total worldwide.

So that's a ratio of 600K:185K or about 3.25:1.

Of course, if you believe MS was stuffing the channel in the first quarter and the real sales are closer to about 1M for the Xbox One from Jan to March, and adjust the math accordingly the NPD figures remain the same, but the sales everywhere else drop to only ~30% of NPD. That assumption brings the monthly sales estimate for Xbox One worldwide down to 150K, or right about 1/4th of the estimated PS4 figure.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Look, let's ignore last year and work just with what we know about the first quarter of 2014 to generate estimates.

Good idea, but with a major flaw. You have included Japan's launch sales which as are misleading as the US and Europe launch sales for both consoles. Remove those numbers and look at what little has sold in Japan since, and its much less. If you remove, I dunno, 500k for Japan's launch numbers (someone can make a more reasoned, accurate estimate), you'd get a better ongoing sell-through comparison.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Is it safe to assume the reasons behind the Xbox One not being in available in as many countries due to localisation for the Kinect? If so, this device has been a real crux for Microsoft. I wonder why they've been so keen to sell it.

 

[blakjedi]

MS said in april they sold 5 million

 

[Deleted member 86764]

MS said in april they sold 5 million

Shipped

 

[djskribbles]

Yup, sales were probably closer to 4.2-4.3M at the time and maybe around 4.4-4.5M right now. Around the same time they announced 5M shipped, Sony announced 7M sold. The PS4 is probably around 7.5M sold and should easily hit 8M by E3, where they'll probably make an announcement (my guess is 8.1-8.2M, or simply "over 8M").

 

[Wynix]

Shipped

"Sold-in" .

 

[BoardBonobo]

Yup, sales were probably closer to 4.2-4.3M at the time and maybe around 4.4-4.5M right now. Around the same time they announced 5M shipped, Sony announced 7M sold. The PS4 is probably around 7.5M sold and should easily hit 8M by E3, where they'll probably make an announcement (my guess is 8.1-8.2M, or simply "over 8M").

It's probably less than that for the XB1, MS have practically stopped production whilst they shift dead stock. At ~600k a month with ~4 million sold they wouldn't have had to stop production as the channels would have cleared pretty quick anyway. My guess ~3 - 3.5 million sold.

 

[manux]

It's probably less than that for the XB1, MS have practically stopped production whilst they shift dead stock. At ~600k a month with ~4 million sold they wouldn't have had to stop production as the channels would have cleared pretty quick anyway. My guess ~3 - 3.5 million sold.

How do you know/speculate ms has stopped production?

 

[Shortbread]

"Sold-in" .

I wouldn't wink on that. A few vendors (that I know) actually had to return unsold goods. Mostly TF and Forza bundles...

 

[London Geezer]

How do you know/speculate ms has stopped production?

It's all speculation. More or less. Based on some real figures and it does make sense, but nothing confirmed. http://www.ign.com/boards/threads/x...n-whats-next-for-microsoft-article.453944893/

 

[liolio]

MS said in april they sold 5 million

I missed that, I no longer follow the new, at least relating to this gen of consoles,enough to discuss the sales...
I quit, back to my Diablo addiction

 

[Rangers]

Some more final numbers. We catch up with solid estimates on the previously missing consoles.

HW

PS4: ~199k
XB1: 115k
3DS: ~106k
360: 71k
Wii U: ~49k
PS3: 35k
Wii: ~17-18k
PSV: ~3.3k

(Wii+WiiU+3DS)<PS4

8th Gen LTD's
PS4: 3,111,000
XB1: 2,644,000
Wii U: 2,347,000
Vita: ~1.775m (YTD ~0.058-0.060m)

SW:

Yoshi New Island ~90k
Kirby ~41k
Mario Golf ~17k
Titanfall (standalone) ~77k
Titanfall (standalone + bundle) ~140k
Infamous ~82k
Conception 2 Vita:18k, 3DS 13k
Demon Gaze 6k
Titanfall 360 > Infamous SS first month
DKCR:TF 36k

Add to that I think 360 Titanfall was confirmed ~500k (though I'm not 100% on this, because I also saw total TF was 560k, which if accurate would make 360 TF only 483k). Titanfall should do 1 million worldwide on 360 easily then.

360 is/was a beast...seems to be holding it's sales better than PS3 which received a lot more hype toward the end of it's life.

Probably because it seems to me MS has been a lot more proactive with it. 250GB with two games is ~$250, and the 4GB is $179. It's good deals.

Checking around the biggest retailers websites just now, it seems current street prices on last gen are:

250 GB 360 with Borderlands 2 and Forza Horizon, $249
4GB 360 with no game $179

500GB PS3 with The Last of Us $269
12GB PS3 $199

It's subtle but I bet consumers find 360 pricing more attractive there. I guess maybe Sony could not cost reduce PS3 as much it's prices seem stuck a little higher at the end of the gen here. It also strikes me 12GB PS3 is probably not a big seller (installs) where 4GB 360 is probably looked at by consumers as a viable option. Also, I have to say imo the last PS3 design (the top loader) was just downright ugly/cheap looking, and that may not have helped.

 

[Rangers]

YoY comps (credit jcm Neogaf)

 

[Rangers]

Is it safe to assume the reasons behind the Xbox One not being in available in as many countries due to localisation for the Kinect? If so, this device has been a real crux for Microsoft. I wonder why they've been so keen to sell it.

I think so. I mean, the original conspiracy theorists explanation was that there just weren't enough X1's to go around due to poor yields. Now that's obviously out the window as supposedly has a glut of X1's. So, what else would it be?

It's probably less than that for the XB1, MS have practically stopped production whilst they shift dead stock. At ~600k a month with ~4 million sold they wouldn't have had to stop production as the channels would have cleared pretty quick anyway. My guess ~3 - 3.5 million sold.

Umm, Skribbles estimates seems pretty good using reasonable extrapolations. If they shipped 5.1 by end of March and only sold (at that time) say 4.3, that's already a sizable amount in the channel in theory. Then we got even slower sales in April. This would probably reasonably be enough to have a channel backup as it is. Or, whoever said X1 was selling 600k per month?

So basically, I'm not sure where you pulled your 3-3.5m from, except I guess the faulty assumption MS stopped X1 production entirely. Heck it just occurred to me just add NPD for the three months to the previously announced 3m at the end of Dec and you're well over 3.5. Maybe you meant typed 3 when you meant 4?

It's all speculation. More or less. Based on some real figures and it does make sense, but nothing confirmed. http://www.ign.com/boards/threads/x...n-whats-next-for-microsoft-article.453944893/

Yeah, literally it's all based on this quote from MS CFO

As a testament to this, Amy Hood said during their call that there will be a “channel inventory drawdown for Xbox consoles”,

As Dave Baumman pointed out to me, they dont even specify X1 or X360 there.

That's it. Out of that some leaped to the conclusion Microsoft completely stopped production of X1 consoles, because hey, salacious headline. Ridiculous.

I will say at current sales rates it is shaping up to be another possibly, headline grabbing, awful quarter on X1 shipments. April was terrible, May is expected to be worse, that just leaves whatever they can get in June. Coupled with likely high levels of X1 in the channel already.

I had suspected a horrible quarter in Jan-March, but they ended up shipping 1.2m which was a reasonably decent number. Once again I'd think they could face only 500-600k shipped Apr-Jun, but we will see again.

 

[Brad Grenz]

360 is/was a beast...seems to be holding it's sales better than PS3 which received a lot more hype toward the end of it's life.

Probably because it seems to me MS has been a lot more proactive with it. 250GB with two games is ~$250, and the 4GB is $179. It's good deals.

Checking around the biggest retailers websites just now, it seems current street prices on last gen are:

250 GB 360 with Borderlands 2 and Forza Horizon, $249
4GB 360 with no game $179

500GB PS3 with The Last of Us $269
12GB PS3 $199

It's subtle but I bet consumers find 360 pricing more attractive there. I guess maybe Sony could not cost reduce PS3 as much it's prices seem stuck a little higher at the end of the gen here. It also strikes me 12GB PS3 is probably not a big seller (installs) where 4GB 360 is probably looked at by consumers as a viable option. Also, I have to say imo the last PS3 design (the top loader) was just downright ugly/cheap looking, and that may not have helped.

The 12GB models are basically impossible to find in the states. On Amazon and Best Buy's websites they are only being sold by third parties for ~$40 above list price. Without access to those the only option is the $270 bundles with Last of Us or LEGO The Hobbit, and that price is definitely too high. I don't know what the deal with the stock situation for the 12GB models actually is. Maybe the currency exchange fluctuations have made those a losing proposition in the US for the time being.

If they could shrink Cell to 22nm and combine it with RSX on a single package and sell a $150 model that would make a great Blu-ray, streaming, PS Now and gaming device for price sensitive people. Of course, with Netflix outside the Paywall, Slim 360s are a way better streaming option now than before, too.

 

[Entropy]

I had suspected a horrible quarter in Jan-March, but they ended up shipping 1.2m which was a reasonably decent number. Once again I'd think they could face only 500-600k shipped Apr-Jun, but we will see again.

Nice work on the data, Rangers.
I find predictions really difficult to make - when you say 500-600k shipped, it strikes me that predicting shipping volumes is particularly difficult since there is so much stock in the channel. It is not inconceivable that the big retailer chains focus on reducing that, and if so, shipments could be down even further. This is a situation where estimates of how many units are actually sold to consumers, dodgy as they are, may paint a clearer picture of how the consoles are doing in the marketplace.

 

[Shortbread]

Current US Amazon Best Sellers 100 List (5/19/2014 9:50 Est.)

#1 Playstation Gift Card
#4 Mario Cart 8 Wii U
#5 Watch Dogs PS4
#8 PS4 Console
#9 Wolfenstein: New Order PS4
#11 Watch Dogs XB1
#12 Wolfenstein: New Order XB1
#32 FIFA PS4
#41 Titanfall XB1 Bundle
#44 MLB 14: The Show PS4
#46 Titanfall XB1
#53 FarCry 4 PS4
#62 Destiny PS4
#67 Infamous Second Son PS4
#68 Call of Duty Ghost PS4
#69 Battlefield PS4
#70 Assassins Creed Black Flag PS4
#72 Diablo 3 Ultimate Evil PS4
#88 NBA 2K14 PS4

I doubled checked but there are only three (3) XB1 games in the top 100... I believe there are more Wii U games, than XB1 games, in the top 100. Weird...