Next iPhone GPU update probably in September 2011
I think I forgot to mention some things in my initial post. From looking at the history of the releases and the performance upgrade of each generation of the GPU in the iPhones, you can assume that iPhone technology generations happen each year around September. The GPU gets updated about every two years (it takes time to add in software support for drastic changes in graphics hardware). Check out the iPhone Secrets link at the bottom for actual release dates for each model if you need confirmation on this trend.
So...
If the trend is right, the next iPhone GPU update will happen in September 2011. There may not be time next year (September 2010) for Apple to put in a totally new GPU. Going with this, in 2011, the GPU change increases the performance 10-fold (see previous post). The iPhone 4G (or 3G Sx2) will probably have a 10 times increase in triangles. Which will make the next iPhone about 3 times more powerful than the original PSP (6 1/2 years later). In the mean time the PSP2 has two years to cook up a better MIPS (or maybe some say SGX?) CPU solution. It is difficult to say if MIPS will still be used to maintain backwards compatibility.
If Apple does not change the GPU by next September 2010 (which is likely), then the PSP will have maintained the performance crown for more than 6 whole years. Normal PC graphics cards surpass console graphics usually within 1 to 1 1/2 years of console release date. Each console generation lasts about 6 years these days (PlayStation brand for example). The PSP seems to have bucked this trend of being quickly outdated (performance wise) in the mobile sector. Perhaps that is why PSP Go and not PSP2 was released just recently.
With iPhone going solely after adult gamers (kids don't have credit cards to purchase iPhone mobile plans and iTunes apps), and the PSP going after almost everyone else, perhaps there may be some big changes happening as they start stepping on each other. Maybe the Apps Store model will change as well in the interim...
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=55310
If Apple crams in a new GPU next September, then they may have finally closed the graphics gap with PSP after 5 1/2 years. That is a long time, considering Moore's Law. If they do, it better have more than 3X performance increase, or it will not exceed what the current PSP is capable of in the 3D graphics arena.
Oh, I noticed that the PSP Slim and later models had 4MB eDRAM in the main CPU and an extra 4 eDRAM in the second CPU (Media Engine), which I've corrected in the link below. Also, the iPhone OS (and all OS X in general) is slower than traditional operating systems because it inherited message passing (instead of function calls) from Objective C, which is a big performance hit. Passing messages is very slow compared to regular C parameter function calls (which PSP uses). Lastly, the iPhone and PSP are already on a collision course because PSP Minis are coming out and Sony Ericsson may put out a phone version (in addition to the already supported Skype).