2007 ps3 price prediction poll

[RancidLunchmeat]

Why? Stringer hinting at a price drop in time for the holidays isn't going to stop the 80,000 people who are buying one every month from doing so.

Those 80k want one now and don't want to wait. They know the PS3 will have a price drop eventually, they don't want to wait 6 months, or 12 months, or however long.

 

[rbushner]

Stringer hinting at a price drop in time for the holidays isn't going to stop the 80,000 people who are buying one every month from doing so.

It's stopping me.

Those 80k want one now and don't want to wait.

And you know this how? Sorry, I'm not buying that. If people couldn't wait, they'd already have one. This is about a price drop coming in a couple of months. Most people are willing to put that into saving a hundred bucks. As the poll shows, alot of people were not expecting a drop this year.

Edit: After reading Dave Baumann's post in another thread, I can see a positive benefit to Stringer's statement. But I still don't like him. :smile:

 

[Shifty Geezer]

There is no good reason to EVER hint of a price drop. It's only going to cut off the legs of your current sales.

It's an interview with the Financial Times! The whole thing is about money and profits and markets. Part of running a business is managing costs and demand, and in business media reporting you're going to have open statements on what you'll be doing. This isn't the ifrst time I've heard an executive officer talk about future plans. Furthermore no-one but a chump will be looking at PS3 and it's sales and expecting it to stay at that price for any length of time! The sorts of people who are likely to hear about this interview will be people who are already watching the sales figures of PS3 and cringing (or celebrating, depending which side of the fence they sit) and posting on forums "Sony need a price cut or they're doomed!"

One thing I did notice watching the interview is that Stringer considered the PS3 a games machine. He didn't once comment on non-gaming features. That hints at a discrepency between different arms of Sony and their view of the machine.

 

[Vic]

The market for a $600 console isn't saturated yet. Once FF and MGS and GT5 are released, the bottom will probably fall out of that market. At that point, Sony will require a price cut in order to spur future sales.

I'd argue that price isn't the most important factor because I believe there are still a significant portion of the population willing to pay $600 for the console if it gives them the return they want.

So the problem isn't the price. The problem is that FF, MGS, GT weren't and aren't available. The problem is compounded by Sony's arrogance "people will pay $600 for the PS3 with no games", which was a huge miscalculation.

Like Nintendo had no idea the Wii would be adopted so rapidly, Sony had no idea the PS3 would be so completely shunned.

But it's about the games. And there's no way Sony can afford to drop the PS3 to $400 this holiday. That would probably add an additional two years to profitability. Sony can't afford that.

Besides, even at $400, the market is still rather small (as MS can attest to) and that's with many, many quality games. Drop the PS3 to $250 and people will buy it with its current library. $400? Not so much.

I was making this point earlier in the week and got shot down for it. With regards to Europe, I think there are still a fair number of gamers that will buy the PS3 at its current price once some big games are released. I agree its unrealistic to think that Sony will reduce the price to $400 in the US this year. $450 is the best case scenario, with $500 the most likely price. Having said that, you say that the 360 is struggling at $400 because the market is low at that price, but for me (at least in Europe) the 360 sales are slowing down because the Xbox doesnt have the brand recognition of Playstation, the blanket coverage of the Wii, and it still doesnt have a wide-range of AAA games that cover several genres. Think of its biggest games, and most people think of Gears, Lost Planet, Dead Rising, Shadowrun, Splinter Cell and Ghost Recon with Halo to come. Of course there are other games out there, but most of the best games on the system are action/shoot-em-ups.

Having said that, Sony does need to introduce a price-cut. It wouldnt surprise me if they wait until just after Warhawk, Heavenly Sword and Unchartered are released, perhaps around September/October.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Another indication is that neither Sony nor MS are acting like the Wii is competing in the same market.

What would Sony do anyways? They're in no position to react to the Wii right now. MS has certainly changed their tact since the Wii has taken off, I doubt you'll hear Peter Moore talking about a Wii60 too much in the future.

I agree with your overall outlook, that both companies are looking further down the road the the Wii is, but the above point in particular doesn't mean much.

 

[scooby_dooby]

The market for a $600 console isn't saturated yet. Once FF and MGS and GT5 are released, the bottom will probably fall out of that market. At that point, Sony will require a price cut in order to spur future sales..

There will be no $600 console by the time these games are released, first if all. Those are all likely 2008 titles.

Secondly, the bottom already has fallen out. Sony is doing a WW total of somewhere around 180k/month, that's pretty brutal. I guess it still has a heartbeat...but it's pretty much dead. You might get some bumps, here and there, but there will be no major upswing IMO.

Especially in Japan and USA, where sales are paltry. EU figures are still somewhat speculation, it seems to be doing decent wqhen we extrapolate numbers, but we don't really know how the sales have been in the last couple of months.

 

[Todd33]

There will be no $600 console by the time these games are released, first if all.

Especially in Japan and USA, where sales are paltry. .

It's already under $500 in Japan. There are some big Japanese type games coming out soon, like Folklore, so IMO it is inevitable that sales will pick up quickly there were there is no real next gen competition.

 

[Vic]

When there are no games being released, is it any suprise that sales are falling?

PS2 had no competition when it was released, and I think people are also underestimating its effect on PS3. Sure its cheap, but it has a huge catalogue, that PS3 doesnt come close to matching. Simply reducing PS3's price isnt enough.

 

[rbushner]

PS2 had no competition when it was released

Dreamcast?

PS2 had competition, it just got nullified by PS2's hype and consumer mindpower coupled with Sega's inability to balance a checkbook.

Currently Wii has the hype and consumer mindpower.

 

[TheChefO]

Dreamcast?

PS2 had competition, it just got nullified by PS2's hype and consumer mindpower coupled with Sega's inability to balance a checkbook.

Currently Wii has the hype and consumer mindpower.

yep.

Glad to see the sheep mentality was nullified by the high price and widespread internet use.

 

[tha_con]

My prediction:

60GB PS3 drops to $499.

Crazy?

80GB PS3 released in US, JPN, and eventually EU regions. $599. Will not ship as many as 60GB, however, the cost for Sony between the two is minimal, and it will help potentially recoup their losses, or minimize them.

 

[Gradthrawn]

My prediction:

60GB PS3 drops to $499.

Crazy?

80GB PS3 released in US, JPN, and eventually EU regions. $599. Will not ship as many as 60GB, however, the cost for Sony between the two is minimal, and it will help potentially recoup their losses, or minimize them.

That's a heck of a premium for 20GB of additional space in a console with a user replaceable hard drive. Even with the original 2-tiered structure, the upper model added 40GBs, WiFi, and card readers for $100 more. There has to be something more than that. Adding some cables (HDMI and/or component) and a headset could be a nice way to improve perceived value for the "premium" model without drastically increasing their cost.

Making the current 60GB the base model, and selling it for $400, while using an 80+GB equipped model bundled with HD cables and a Bluetooth headset as the premium model for $500 could go a long ways, I think. Not sure how feasible that is, however. Perhaps that would be something more for Christmas 08 than 07.

 

[scooby_dooby]

When there are no games being released, is it any suprise that sales are falling?

Not any more. But, at one point is was quite surprising to see demand shrink so rapidly. Sales aren't 'falling', they're damn near anemic @ 80k/month in the us. 360 sold twice that much during it's first year, it didn't have a huge game libary, and nowhere near the brand equity Sony had.

I fully expected Sony to be sold out until march/april, and sell their initial 6million units as planned.

Soon, it became clear that the $600 market is just not there. It's not lack of games, it's the pricepoint. That's all there is to it.

I'd venture to guess, that at a lower pricepoint, Sony would've sold heir initial 6million consoles as soon as they could make em, regardless of the games available.

 

[TheChefO]

I'd venture to guess, that at a lower pricepoint, Sony would've sold heir initial 6million consoles as soon as they could make em, regardless of the games available.

Indeed.

It seems Ken was wrong and people had better things to do than get another job to afford a ps3.

 

[SugarCoat]

It's already under $500 in Japan. There are some big Japanese type games coming out soon, like Folklore, so IMO it is inevitable that sales will pick up quickly there were there is no real next gen competition.

Japan alone will hardly sustain Sony. Dont forget the 20gb is not offered or even discontinued in a lot of countries. They also lost a lot of initial sales by not offering that more basic model for 20% less which im sure they had a good reason to not release to other regions, the losses they're taking on the hardware are problably horrendous.

 

[TheChefO]

Well, one down.

I still think there is an opportunity to hit the $425 range ($400-450) with a feature reduced model this year.

I think the current price move was the right one and will hopefully help them pick up steam here.

 

[Skrying]

Well, one down.

I still think there is an opportunity to hit the $425 range ($400-450) with a feature reduced model this year.

I think the current price move was the right one and will hopefully help them pick up steam here.

No way will it go lower than $500 this year, cleary (IMO) they're still really hurting on the cost per unit and therefore the introduction of a 80GB model to curve this loss even if slightly. Hell, they're even charging for the game they're "bundling" with the system. Unless you honestly believe that extra 20GB cost them $100. To be honest the 80GB is probably the same price or just ever so slightly more than the 60GB due to scale, the 80GB is most likely the most common laptop hard drive sold right now.

 

[Rockster]

I can't image the new SKU costs them more than a couple bucks for disc replication of the game and larger hard drive. It's an attempt to create a better perceived value. The $499 60GB SKU was probably more financially painful for them to move it through the channel. Makes me wonder how many are out there.

 

[Skrying]

I can't image the new SKU costs them more than a couple bucks for disc replication of the game and larger hard drive. It's an attempt to create a better perceived value. The $499 60GB SKU was probably more financially painful for them to move it through the channel. Makes me wonder how many are out there.

If it was to create better perceived value then it was a major screw it, it does the complete opposite.

 

[ManuVlad3.0]

I bet in another price cut before this fall. Maybe $50,00.