2015 Marketshare Prediction Poll > 2009 Summer ed.

How will the market be split by 2015

  • Total voters
    52
  • Poll closed .
T

TheChefO

Banned
With some changes to the market over the past few months, I thought it might be appropriate to post a new poll taking these changes into account...

- Economy
- Motion controls
- Statements confirming 10 year lifecycle



2007 Summer ed
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=41884

2007 January ed
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=37965

2006 Summer ed
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=31388



So with these factors in mind and the question of whether WiiHD will come around before then (or even ps4 & xb720), have at it!
 
I.S.T. said:
The words "ten year cycle" in and of itself mean nothing. The PS1 and PS2 had/have ten year cycles...
Click to expand...

Granted, but ps1 and ps2 were both ten year cycles based on sales.

Both of those were clearly market leaders and by their popularity alone ran ten years of support.


In this go round, development costs in hardware and software along with a down market is forcing the ten year cycle. Granted, this doesn't mean we won't see next gen consoles before then, and plans can change...

But Sony and MS are making efforts via motion controller add-ons to extend the life of both ps3 and xb360.

On the Nintendo front, their sales are still strong enough to push through with a small price drop at intervalls while still maintaining a VERY healthy profit per console.
 
Sony promised ten year cycles for both the PS1 and PS2 before the PS2 and PS3 respectively were released, however. The plan for both of them was to transition them to being budget consoles around the time the new console was released. Who's to say that won't happen with the PS3/X360?
 
I chose Sony 30 Microsoft 30 and Nintendo 40 when I was really meaning Sony 25, Microsoft 35 and Nintendo 45 but that was the closest.
 
Phil said:
Where the option Nintendo 40%, Sony 35%, Microsoft 25%? ;)
Click to expand...

I decided to keep the same percentages as the previous polls to track trends easier even though the more likely percentages would have been closer to the existing percentages of today:

21% PS3
30% XB360
49% WII

So something like:

Code: 
PS	XB	Wii
20	30	50 - things stay the same
30	25	45 - Sony gains big
15	40	45 - MS gains big
15	25	60 - N gains big
25	35	40 - N loses big
25	20	55 - MS loses big
10	35	55 - Sony loses big
 
Well, in that case, I'll just post my vote here then:

I wont' stick to figures or percentages, but I think that Sony, once they can drop the price and launch a slim model, will close the gap significantly. I also think that Japan will increase as a market place for consoles again once the price is right and some of the bigger games (Final Fantasy) launch. I'm guessing there are still quite a few PS2 owners that haven't yet upgraded (mainly those that bought a PS2 at the $199 price point) and while some are becoming X360 owners now, I think Sony might be able to grab a significant amount thanks to the name and good-enough performance on staying in the game.

It could very well go wrong though, but the speculation is all the fun and I look forward to revisiting this topic in a few years time. :)
 
Phil said:
Well, in that case, I'll just post my vote here then:

I wont' stick to figures or percentages, but I think that Sony, once they can drop the price and launch a slim model, will close the gap significantly. I also think that Japan will increase as a market place for consoles again once the price is right and some of the bigger games (Final Fantasy) launch. I'm guessing there are still quite a few PS2 owners that haven't yet upgraded (mainly those that bought a PS2 at the $199 price point) and while some are becoming X360 owners now, I think Sony might be able to grab a significant amount thanks to the name and good-enough performance on staying in the game.

It could very well go wrong though, but the speculation is all the fun and I look forward to revisiting this topic in a few years time. :)
Click to expand...

I agree those factors should help PS3 considerably, along with PSMC.

Similarly, I see Natal (and a slim xb) helping MS.

I see both of these cutting into Nintendo's percentage as the machine truly starts to show it's age against boxes that can do waggle AND have HD graphics along with a more diverse library that will support a broader demographic.
 
My goodness, in six years time? Under normal circumstances the 360 would be gone by that time and it may well be that MS would shoot for a quick and full migration to the next thing. However, now that Natal is coming out late 2010/2011, I don't know. Still I don't think the 360 has six more years in it, Natal or no, for its current audience - they'll all be back to the PC. Then it all depends on how successful Natal is, which is really impossible to predict at this point in the context of Nintendo and Sony.

Nintendo's position is relatively safe I think, at least for a fair while, because of the strength of Nintendo's own software. It will keep appealing to the younger and female demographic, and WiiMotionPlus will give it more legs. But it's almost impossible to believe that they won't have something HD released by 2013. It's likely to be Wii compatible though, something like the Wii HD probably, and then maybe something entirely new may follow (when also depends on if they have something in the hand-held space lined up first, though I don't think so - the DSi will probably carry the market for a bit with downloadable games being pushed first)

And then Sony ... their first party development is going strong. Whenever they manage to get the price down, it will very likely sell loads, and if the motion controllers work out and they create some killer software for it (which they are definitely capable of - the spray-paint application alone was a system seller for me), it can still get very, very big.

So, I can't call it at the moment. I can say what I except to be playing with a fair certainty, but everyone else? Pff. But there's a good chance the systems will stay close (30-50% spread close in my definition, especially on such a long term) as the poll also seems to suggest.
 
Yep that is a long time. I hope the current systems are all but dead by then, well maybe they could still be sold, atleast the HD-ones, but still I surely hope that the current gen consoles are not the tip of the spear for their manufacturers in 2015. As far as I'm concerned, when the new model comes out, my interest shifts there immeadiately. Maybe at the end of 2012 would have been better for this poll?
 
Dr Evil said:
Maybe at the end of 2012 would have been better for this poll?
Click to expand...

Well, by all accounts, Sony and MS expect their platforms to be around until 2015. So this poll is to see opinions on where these consoles will be by the time their run is up.

Obviously the likelihood of Sony, Nintendo and MS to come out with nextgen systems before 2015 is high and will affect the sales of these consoles, but that's part of the fun... figuring out how these factors will guide sales of these boxes.
 
I'd love to see what numbers and sales forecasts people attribute to unlaunched features like Natal and PS3 motion! Seriously, how can anyone predict what's going to happen by 2015 when in 2010 the whole landscape could have shifted dramatically? Even without those, we have no idea what latent interest there may or may not be in a much cheaper PS3. If it drops $100 for Christmas it could sell 20% more or 120% more. Unless someone has a special way to predict this (heck, a decent survey of customers interest, 'at what price would you buy a PS3?' would be a good start!) you may as well use the Pachter forecasting method of pinning possible outcomes onto a dartboard!
 
Shifty Geezer said:
I'd love to see what numbers and sales forecasts people attribute to unlaunched features like Natal and PS3 motion! Seriously, how can anyone predict what's going to happen by 2015 when in 2010 the whole landscape could have shifted dramatically? Even without those, we have no idea what latent interest there may or may not be in a much cheaper PS3. If it drops $100 for Christmas it could sell 20% more or 120% more. Unless someone has a special way to predict this (heck, a decent survey of customers interest, 'at what price would you buy a PS3?' would be a good start!) you may as well use the Pachter forecasting method of pinning possible outcomes onto a dartboard!
Click to expand...

LOL

Well, some of us called some things right a few years back, others not so much.

Saying X will do Y is easy. Coming up with reasonable factors which will guide X to do Y is the fun part.



But yes you're right, many "professionals" got this generation very wrong.
 
To be fair, most "professionals" probably didn't expect Sony to sell the PS3 for $499/$599. I still remember voting Sony to launch the PS3 at $399 and even then, I thought they would somehow stick to the $299 price point or get there rather quickly. They basically shot themselves with that one, eventhough in insight of the economy and all other factors, it probably was the best tradeoff for them to make.
 
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