2015 Marketshare Prediction Poll > 2009 Summer ed.

[TheChefO]

To be fair, most "professionals" probably didn't expect Sony to sell the PS3 for $499/$599...

Really?

I remember a lot of talk prior to launch that PS3 would launch "expensive" and BOM was rumored to be $700-900. Even Kuta was saying prior to launch that people should be happy to work two jobs to get a ps3.

Well, I'm not sure when these guys found out about the launch prices, but I'm pretty sure most of them knew it would be expensive.


The thing that really is a head scratcher even to this day is: what happened to the price reductions that were supposed to take place "rapidly"?

That was suppose to be the ace in the hole.

PS3 by now should have been under $300 which would have helped them a ton.

 

[Scott_Arm]

There was a lot of speculation on forums about room to cut price because of improvements to their chip fab, and die shrinks and BluRay costs coming down etc. But I don't think I've ever really seen an accurate report on what the cell and the PS3 really cost Sony to know why the costs haven't come down despite process improvements and cheaper parts. Basically, it seems that most cost improvements are being used to improve profits, or shrink losses, however that is working out, and those cost improvements are not being passed on to the consumer.

I'm voting 50% PS3, because it's funny.

 

[thatdude90210]

To be fair, most "professionals" probably didn't expect Sony to sell the PS3 for $499/$599. I still remember voting Sony to launch the PS3 at $399 and even then, I thought they would somehow stick to the $299 price point or get there rather quickly. They basically shot themselves with that one, eventhough in insight of the economy and all other factors, it probably was the best tradeoff for them to make.

I voted $599 on that poll. There's just no way they could have been $399 if MS was still losing money on the 360 at $399 at the time.

It's not like Sony had some magic parts bin where they could get things so much cheaper than anyone else. Nor has Sony's electronic products ever been cheaper than other companies' similar products. It's usually just the opposite.

 

[Mintmaster]

I chose Sony 30 Microsoft 30 and Nintendo 40 when I was really meaning Sony 25, Microsoft 35 and Nintendo 45 but that was the closest.

5% bonus!

I mostly agree. PS3 22, MS 35, Wii 43. I chose 20/40/40.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Same I did 20/40/40. I have a feeling Wii is going to continue to slow while X360 picks up some slack. PS3 is kinda between a rock and a hardplace with the parent company not having much room to maneuver with the price due to financial concerns.

There's just not as much hype and without the shortages people don't feel like they MUST pick up a Wii as soon as they see one or risk not being able to get one of the next few months.

Although a Wii at 149 could suddenly spur another mad round of buying, I just don't think even that will increase monthly sales back to the heady days of yesteryear.

Regards,
SB

 

[liolio]

I had a tough time making up my mind but I settled over 40%Nintendo 30% MS/Sony but clearly I few confidence in my guess...

I think Sony situation in North America won't get any better significantly.
Sony could pull ahead again in Europe on the long run.
And Sony has a lot of growing opportunity in Japan.

I think that from now Nintendo will go on losing steam but they may compensate by being cheap and tapping some emerging markets. But an anticipated Wii HD may throw the predictions for the ps360 away.

For MS I think that they are limited by Japan, they are pretty safe in US and Europe is a battle ground.
They have made huge progess and they are actually ahead but they have to consolidate their position.
I think Europe is the market where MS really has to fight on the price, they will have to the 360 competitive (read a bargain) against the ps3. If there is a price war this gen I think it will be in Europe.
But it's also difficult to predict Natal impact, I don't consider Natal launch to be on the same scale as Sony motion sensing controler, the thing comes to the Pc world it can turn out be the hot new stuff to have or not. I also see a succesful Natal launch as the only MS opportunity to really strongly enter the Japan market.

Overall tough estimation to do right now

 

[thatdude90210]

And Sony has a lot of growing opportunity in Japan

No they don't. The Japanese have moved on, they've gone mobile. The only thing that lured them back for a while was the Wii motion control. And even then, there's a limit, as the Wii will not match total PS2 numbers. And don't count on people to "upgrade" from a Wii either. HD graphics don't do anything for people who don't mind playing games on a 2-3" screen.

For MS I think that they are limited by Japan

They are both limited by Japan. Kids there now are used to the Wiimote. Give them a PS/360 controller and they'll go "where's the pointer? this is stupid."

And both of their motion controllers will be seen as "me too" products (if and when they are released). Even if they are released next year, people there would have been shooting arrows, & sword fighting for a year, and using motion control in general for even longer.

 

[TheChefO]

An interesting tidbit from that Mark Rein interview was the bit where he stated that about half the xb360 users didn't have HDTV yet.

I'm thinking MS probably has the ability to check this via the dashboard just like Sony can check it. But the thing they didn't say was how that percentage was changing quarter on quarter and year on year.

Samsung's financial report indicates HDTV's are still selling well even in this downturn. My guess is this is another reason why MS and Sony are both adding Motion controls to their existing boxes.

If there are many people still buying HDTV's but less than half their userbases have HDTV's, then the market for gaming may be there, but the interface may have been a limiting factor in getting people to "jump in".

Nintendo also may have a way to check hdtv adoption if they can check their dashboard and see if "widescreen" is selected. Not many sdtv's were "widescreen".


As much as I hate to say it, I think this data point (if true) really does spell a long wait before we see true next gen systems. WiiHD though would likely show up before too long. My guess is 2011.

 

[Megadrive1988]

By 2015, I'll be interested in the marketshare of next-gen systems like Xbox3, Wii2, PS4, etc.

Why not make a poll for current-gen consoles, that's not quite so far into the future, like 2012?

 

[TheChefO]

Why not make a poll for current-gen consoles, that's not quite so far into the future, like 2012?

Because 2012 won't be the end of the generation.

Motion control add-ons are a significant addition for both ps3 and xb360. There are other reasons as well that are extending this generation beyond a normal lifecycle such as HDTV adoption, the worldwide recession, increased cost of development for titles as well as systems, and the high initial price of HD consoles for consumers which is consequentially taking longer for these consoles to hit more mainstream pricing levels.


When I initially started these prediction polls, I thought 2010 we would be at or near the end for this cycle's effective lifetime. I didn't expect Wii to make such an impact that it would "inspire" Sony and MS to adopt motion controls and give them a way to effectively extend their consoles shelf life.

 

[jarrod]

No they don't. The Japanese have moved on, they've gone mobile. The only thing that lured them back for a while was the Wii motion control. And even then, there's a limit, as the Wii will not match total PS2 numbers. And don't count on people to "upgrade" from a Wii either. HD graphics don't do anything for people who don't mind playing games on a 2-3" screen.


They are both limited by Japan. Kids there now are used to the Wiimote. Give them a PS/360 controller and they'll go "where's the pointer? this is stupid."

And both of their motion controllers will be seen as "me too" products (if and when they are released). Even if they are released next year, people there would have been shooting arrows, & sword fighting for a year, and using motion control in general for even longer.

This is all pretty true. I'm surprised to see some attributing big PS3 growth opportunities on FFXIII's back in Japan and little/none for Wii when it has a much fuller native lineup loaded with (potentially) bigger exclusives for this and next year (Wii Sports Resort, Monster Hunter 3, Wii Fit Plus, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Dragon Quest X, etc).

Japan is really a lost cause for everyone but Wii at this point, and Wii itself is just teetering on the edge...

 

[catisfit]

Hmmm... to be brief, and not too scientific given the ridiculous timeframe

As of 31-Mar-09: (N-M-S) 48.7 - 29.1 - 22.2

Nintendo sales to slow. Ordinarily I'd factor in a larger second-hand market but I'm not sure how many Wii owners even know there is one

I'm concerned about Microsoft having already used up their price leverage, especially in Europe. They've frontloaded their sales significantly and that doesn't bode well for a tail, especially one until 2015 when the barrier to entry here has been closer to PS2 than Wii since mid-to-late 2008.

Sony still have yet to reach a mainstream price, which means significant potential sales as yet unrealised (NB 'potential' means no guarantees). It also hasn't seen a full Gran Turismo yet (biggest selling game on PS1 and PS2).

The concept of Nintendo making a Wii HD contradicts everything that has made the Wii successful this generation, as it would be graphics over innovation. Besides, PS3 + PSMC would directly fill the space that a Wii HD would be aiming for, given that PSMC is deliberately directly comparable to WM+ and games will be developed with both in mind (e.g. Tiger Woods Wii/PS3).

I guessed 47.6 - 23.8 - 28.6 and voted 50 - 25 - 25 as that was closest