PS3 predictionS now that it launched in all territories

[TheChefO]

Am I the only one who thinks the absolute opposite, that the relevance of this generation is peaking at about 2010, probably even later?


Has it ever occurred to you that the PS3 does not even need to outsell the 360 on a monthly basis until after the sales of the 360 has peaked in order to outsell the 360 during its life time?

The PS3 seems so far to be approx. following the sales of the 360s first year at a 50% higher price. Don´t give some the "360 was supply limit", because the sales weren´t exactly sky-rocketing when supply improved.

Now the interesting question when do you think the sales of the 360 will peak?

Interesting peak theory but again this only applies in a bubble. Ps3 and xb360 are going after the same set of gamers. IF xb360 "peaks" next year ($200), it won't matter when ps3 peaks afterward as the userbase will dictate library which will dictate larger userbase etc ... and so on.

For example: When did xb1 "peak"?



Regarding gen longevity: This gen will start to die the second the nextgen systems are announced. By this I mean the sales will start the declining process and the current gen will be completely "dead" (by "dead" I mean no new AAA titles such as this year for ps2 with the last hurah being GOW2) ~ a year after the last nextgen system hits market (IMO 2012)

 

[one]

Forza has 4x AA.

Actually it's dynamic (0xAA - 4xAA) depending on the load.

 

[djskribbles]

VGcharts has always been way to low for the 360.

It was confirmed in December MS shipped 10.4 million 360's yet they show the 360 still at around 9.7 million in sales. There is no way that MS shipped that many and are still aroun 9.7 million sold almost 5 months later.

thats because VGCharts numbers are SOLD, not SHIPPED. MS probably shipped around 11m consoles to date. do you think every one of those have been sold? ~11m shipped and 9.77m sold is believable to me. i'm not saying VGCharts is completely accurate, but its the most "reliable" chart out there.

if VGCharts used "shipped" numbers, the PS3 would be over 4m. it was announced earlier or late last month that Sony shipped 4m consoles worldwide.

also, MS doesn't have an 8-9m lead, its more like 7m, and they have YEARS to catch up. the ps3 has not yet seen a full holiday season, it has just been launched in europe and none of its big name titles have been released yet. the 360 outselling the ps3 in N/A (ATM) won't help it catch up, but the fact that its selling in all territories will.

 

[DUALDISASTER]

negativity...

You and scooby have been overly pro-xbox lately. What makes you so sure halo won't flop? What makes you so sure xbox will continue to keep it's numbers? Crossbar brings up a good point in believeing this gen my last a while. Devs are already breaking their pockets to create games. That alone could push next gen farther than expected. Wii, imo doesn't factor to do much after the "real" next gen kicks in. Other than price, 360 doesn't have alot to look forward to. Most of it's games are MP anyway...

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Actually it's dynamic (0xAA - 4xAA) depending on the load.

source?

 

[Ben-Nice]

The Wii might start selling alot more if this claim is true

I don’t think [Wii supply] going to be an issue going forward, and—it’s just my opinion—I think [Nintendo] intentionally dried up their supply because they made their numbers for the year," said DeMatteo in a Q&A session during GameStop's quarterly conference call. "[Nintendo's] new year starts April 1st, and I think we’re going to see supply flowing.

“We were concerned about the dryness [of Wii inventory] in March, but it looks like April is going to be good,â€￾ he said.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5034&Itemid=2

 

[one]

source?

Dan Greenawalt, the designer of Forza 2 at a GDC 2007 interview
http://www.watch.impress.co.jp/game/docs/20070326/fm2.htm

 

[Crossbar]

Interesting peak theory but again this only applies in a bubble. Ps3 and xb360 are going after the same set of gamers. IF xb360 "peaks" next year ($200), it won't matter when ps3 peaks afterward as the userbase will dictate library which will dictate larger userbase etc ... and so on.

For example: When did xb1 "peak"?

So the PS3 is more likely to follow the sales curve of the xb1 than the sales curve of PS2?

Regarding gen longevity: This gen will start to die the second the nextgen systems are announced. By this I mean the sales will start the declining process and the current gen will be completely "dead" (by "dead" I mean no new AAA titles such as this year for ps2 with the last hurah being GOW2) ~ a year after the last nextgen system hits market (IMO 2012)

Maybe you could say that it will "start to die", but it will still have a growing user base AND that is something the developers pay attention to.

So when are you assuming the nextgen systems will be announced?

 

[swanlee]

"thats because VGCharts numbers are SOLD, not SHIPPED. MS probably shipped around 11m consoles to date."

The problem is MS says they shipped 10.4 million console as of December. So you are saying they have only shipped 600,000 in almost 5 months? VGhcarts is the only one of these tracking sites that have the 360 below 10 million. It simply doesn't add up that the 360 has been selling well and shipped 10.4 million consoles to retailers but has only sold 9.7 million 5 months after 10.4 million have shipped.

http://nexgenwars.com/

http://en.konsolewars.com/


Both have much higher numbers for the 360.

 

[SPM]

The average gamer is not going to shell out $400+ for a game machine.

Dead right. Sony isn't ever going to be able to sell PS3 as a pure games machine against Xbox360 or Wii. If Sony tries to do that, it is going to bomb big time. They are only going to be able to justify the cost on the basis of a games/multi-media PC/movie player/PVR/home theater machine to compete with PCs that fulfil this role. If you consider the bluray drive as something to boost games, then PS3 isn't worth the money, but if you consider it's movie playing and computer OS capability, only then is the PS3 good value for money.

The problem is that the morons at Sony haven't grasped this simple fact yet. They are not actively pushing Linux, and they are not pushing it as a media center like they do some of their high end PCs. These are the very same marketing morons who had the Walkman and let Apple steal the march on them with the ipod, and the same ones who got into LCD monitors long after even the low end competitors did, and the same morons who are now opening Sony shops in UK instead of concentrating on providing cheaper products to existing retailers. I mean, if someone wants to buy a consumer electronic product, they go to somewhere which will allow you to choose between different products from different manufacturers, not choose one product from one manufacturer.

 

[Ben-Nice]

Dead right. Sony isn't ever going to be able to sell PS3 as a pure games machine against Xbox360 or Wii. If Sony tries to do that, it is going to bomb big time. They are only going to be able to justify the cost on the basis of a games/multi-media PC/movie player/PVR/home theater machine to compete with PCs that fulfil this role. If you consider the bluray drive as something to boost games, then PS3 isn't worth the money, but if you consider it's movie playing and computer OS capability, only then is the PS3 good value for money.

I agree. They should bundle it with some of they're HD TV's . I'm actually surprised they haven't tried that angle yet.

 

[djskribbles]

"thats because VGCharts numbers are SOLD, not SHIPPED. MS probably shipped around 11m consoles to date."

The problem is MS says they shipped 10.4 million console as of December. So you are saying they have only shipped 600,000 in almost 5 months? VGhcarts is the only one of these tracking sites that have the 360 below 10 million. It simply doesn't add up that the 360 has been selling well and shipped 10.4 million consoles to retailers but has only sold 9.7 million 5 months after 10.4 million have shipped.

http://nexgenwars.com/

http://en.konsolewars.com/


Both have much higher numbers for the 360.

why do they need to ship more consoles if theres some already in stores? not saying the 360 is not selling, because it obviously is, but the demand for it is not as high as it used to be, therefore, the shipments are far less than before. MS probably shipped a bunch for the holiday season, but the early months of the year are always slow in sales.

 

[Deusp]

Am I the only one who thinks the absolute opposite, that the relevance of this generation is peaking at about 2010, probably even later?

I'm with you. The generation will be around half way done by 2009-2010. Xbox 720 (or whatever) won't show up till 2012 at the earliest according to MS's own words. I don't expect PS4 to be out until 2013 or later.

 

[Deusp]

"thats because VGCharts numbers are SOLD, not SHIPPED. MS probably shipped around 11m consoles to date."

The problem is MS says they shipped 10.4 million console as of December. So you are saying they have only shipped 600,000 in almost 5 months? VGhcarts is the only one of these tracking sites that have the 360 below 10 million. It simply doesn't add up that the 360 has been selling well and shipped 10.4 million consoles to retailers but has only sold 9.7 million 5 months after 10.4 million have shipped.

http://nexgenwars.com/

http://en.konsolewars.com/


Both have much higher numbers for the 360.

MS own predictions have Xbox 360 shipments at 12 million by June 2007. I can't imagine them particular pressed for demand right now.

 

[TheChefO]

You and scooby have been overly pro-xbox lately. What makes you so sure halo won't flop? What makes you so sure xbox will continue to keep it's numbers? Crossbar brings up a good point in believeing this gen my last a while. Devs are already breaking their pockets to create games. That alone could push next gen farther than expected. Wii, imo doesn't factor to do much after the "real" next gen kicks in. Other than price, 360 doesn't have alot to look forward to. Most of it's games are MP anyway...

source?*

So the PS3 is more likely to follow the sales curve of the xb1 than the sales curve of PS2?

Maybe you could say that it will "start to die", but it will still have a growing user base AND that is something the developers pay attention to.

So when are you assuming the nextgen systems will be announced?

I think that model is much more similar to what reality is shaping currently. In the end it will probably be a mix of xb1 and ps2 but I think closer to xb1 than ps2. IMO

I think nextgen may be announced as early as 2009 e3 by Nintendo for WiiHD. I think the likely scenario is 2010 e3 though. xb720 will ship 2010-2011 IMO and ps3 ... who knows. Depends on how many lessons they've learned this gen and how well they can apply this knowledge.

*Just kidding DualDisaster!

 

[one]

I wonder why Sony would waste their time with such ads. The xb360 offers the same, as well as the Wii. But both of these consoles offer the same feature for significantly less money.

Their efforts to sell the console using such ads helps explain their current plight.

IMO.

360 and Wii don't offer the same function. If you watch the commercial you know it's excatly how PS3 presents pictures in one of the modes with pattern recognition for human faces with music from CD as BGM.
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/home-entertainment/ps3s-portrait-slideshow-face-detection-224284.php

 

[TheChefO]

360 and Wii don't offer the same function. If you watch the commercial you know it's excatly how PS3 presents pictures in one of the modes with pattern recognition for human faces with music from CD as BGM.
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/home-entertainment/ps3s-portrait-slideshow-face-detection-224284.php

cute.



Not sure if that's the best way to sell a ps3 at current msrp though.

 

[Sis]

You and scooby have been overly pro-xbox lately. What makes you so sure halo won't flop? What makes you so sure xbox will continue to keep it's numbers? Crossbar brings up a good point in believeing this gen my last a while. Devs are already breaking their pockets to create games. That alone could push next gen farther than expected. Wii, imo doesn't factor to do much after the "real" next gen kicks in. Other than price, 360 doesn't have alot to look forward to. Most of it's games are MP anyway...

Well, nothing is ever certain, right? I mean, PS3 sales could fall off a cliff and Sony might not ever sell another console again. Just like Halo might flop. And you used an eye-rolly for that?

Other than price, 360 doesn't have alot to look forward to.

I had to call this one out, just so it sits there, nice and highlighted. What were you saying about scooby and Chef?

 

[Nesh]

360 and Wii don't offer the same function. If you watch the commercial you know it's excatly how PS3 presents pictures in one of the modes with pattern recognition for human faces with music from CD as BGM.
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/home-entertainment/ps3s-portrait-slideshow-face-detection-224284.php

impressive

 

[TheChefO]

Well, nothing is ever certain, right? I mean, PS3 sales could fall off a cliff and Sony might not ever sell another console again. Just like Halo might flop. And you used an eye-rolly for that?



I had to call this one out, just so it sits there, nice and highlighted. What were you saying about scooby and Chef?

and with that ... I'd suggest this chap takes a gander on over to this thread for enlightenment.