I found that link to yet another chart: http://en.konsolewars.com/
No idea it it is more accurate than vgcharts.org (that one is clearly wrong )
No idea it it is more accurate than vgcharts.org (that one is clearly wrong )
PS3 predictionS now that it launched in all territories
- Thread starter Nesh
- Start date
There's the rub
Seriously I see sales pickup when ps3 hits the $300 mark, but not enough to overtake the sales xb360 will reach from hitting $200.
I think the $200 mark will be the turning point this gen. And I think there is a very good shot of that mark being hit this year. Afterward I think the dev market will see a very strong shift of support for xb360 and while I do not expect ps3 to lose titles initially, I do expect most developers to be offering their wares on xb360 first and foremost. Wii will maintain the strong support they will show this e3 but again, different market.
IMO
I find posts like these so weird. I don´t know if they should be interpreted like blatant fanboy rants or if there is some analysis behind them.
Some people take for granted that the 360 and the PS3 will follow a similar life cycle curve and end simultanously. I wonder what the basis for this is? Sonys execution so far seem to follow it previous curve is that a bad thing and the PS2 seems to be still be doing pretty fine.
I find posts like these so weird. I don´t know if they should be interpreted like blatant fanboy rants or if there is some analysis behind them.
Some people take for granted that the 360 and the PS3 will follow a similar life cycle curve and end simultanously. I wonder what the basis for this is? Sonys execution so far seem to follow it previous curve is that a bad thing and the PS2 seems to be still be doing pretty fine.
In isolation you would be 100% correct. However the ps3 is not in isolation. So it's performance ramp does not matter how it compares to ps2 (even though it doesn't match it - fyi)
If ps3 were launching 1st with these types of numbers it would be "ok" but it isn't and is currently trailing in 3rd place with no sign of outselling either competition at anytime this year. Maybe next year will be different but saying and thinking such would be illogical as there is no evidence to suggest it.
Some of you guys don't seem to know that about half of consoles sales happen in Q4. At PS2's height it moved something like 1.3 million in Nov. and 2.6 million in Dec in the US alone. Including Oct sales, that's over 4 million in a quarter. Assuming EU & Jap sold another 4 million, that's 8 million worldwide in a quarter when PS2 was at its best.
I think there was another thread regarding the sales of the 360, noting that it doing solid but not likely to be number 1.
I find posts like these so weird. I don´t know if they should be interpreted like blatant fanboy rants or if there is some analysis behind them.
Some people take for granted that the 360 and the PS3 will follow a similar life cycle curve and end simultanously. I wonder what the basis for this is? Sonys execution so far seem to follow it previous curve is that a bad thing and the PS2 seems to be still be doing pretty fine.
Sony's execution so far doesn't show anything that would lead anyone to logically believe that the current PS3 lifecycle will follow it predcessors just from preliminary sales. Its too early and the intial curve of the PS1 and PS2 are anything but similar. The PS1 took around 14 months to move ~4 million consoles in the same time the PS2 moved over ~11 million. Comparing the xbox, GC, DC, Saturn and N64's intial sales numbers with the early sales of the PS1 and PS2 and you'll find its literally impossible to determine the future prospect of a console based on its first year of sales.
"Some people take for granted that the 360 and the PS3 will follow a similar life cycle curve and end simultanously."
That still does not take into account the PS3 has to outsell the 360 by 250,000 consoles each and every month just to break even by mid 2010. By 2010 the relevance of this gen will be diminishing in preparation for next gen and at that they will only be BREAKING EVEN if they start outselling the 360 by ALOT.
Nothing right now shows the PS3 will start outselling the 360 monthly any time soon let alone outsell them by 250,000. MS can drop prices much sooner than the PS3 and doesn't have to drop prices near as much to hit the 199$ mass market sweet spot.
Sony is simply running out of time to catch up this gen and have it still mean anything. The 360 is not just going to sit there at the same price forever and let the PS3 sail by, and even if it did we are talking 3 years before the user base is even.
That still does not take into account the PS3 has to outsell the 360 by 250,000 consoles each and every month just to break even by mid 2010. By 2010 the relevance of this gen will be diminishing in preparation for next gen and at that they will only be BREAKING EVEN if they start outselling the 360 by ALOT.
Nothing right now shows the PS3 will start outselling the 360 monthly any time soon let alone outsell them by 250,000. MS can drop prices much sooner than the PS3 and doesn't have to drop prices near as much to hit the 199$ mass market sweet spot.
Sony is simply running out of time to catch up this gen and have it still mean anything. The 360 is not just going to sit there at the same price forever and let the PS3 sail by, and even if it did we are talking 3 years before the user base is even.
"I think there was another thread regarding the sales of the 360, noting that it doing solid but not likely to be number 1."
Um only the WII is selling enough monthly to knock the 360 off the number 1 spot and honestly I would not consider it directly competing.
Between the PS3 and the 360 the PS3 has to make up an 8-9 million console lead and to do that they need to start trouncing the monthly sales of 360 on a very consistent basis to do that in any reasonable time frame.
PS3 being outsold by 100,000 units by the 360 in the USA is not going to help the PS3 over take the 360.
Um only the WII is selling enough monthly to knock the 360 off the number 1 spot and honestly I would not consider it directly competing.
Between the PS3 and the 360 the PS3 has to make up an 8-9 million console lead and to do that they need to start trouncing the monthly sales of 360 on a very consistent basis to do that in any reasonable time frame.
PS3 being outsold by 100,000 units by the 360 in the USA is not going to help the PS3 over take the 360.
Like I just said, it could do that in single quarter if it sold like the PS2. Even if doesn't, a smallish lead over the whole year will turn into a 1-2 million lead in just the last two months of a year in the US alone. Worldwide, it could be more than double that. So your claim that the 360 has an nearly insurmountable lead is simply false. A massive holiday season sales burst could easily bring it into parity.
Could you explain to us how the PS3 could do that with that higher price in the foresable future ? Most of the software hits for PS3 seems to be for the next year and Christams 2008 is a bit late for a come back i think.
"it could do that in single quarter if it sold like the PS2."
Yea and I'm sure most of us can walk on water to. So you are saying by some freak miracle the PS3 is going to outsell the 360 by "2-3 MILLION CONSOLES PER MONTH" in a single QTR to finally break even or pull a little ahead?
They can't even make that many PS3's per month and at $499-599 no one is going to buy that many.
Hey I'd like to see the PS3 outsell the 360 by any number in one month before you start making unrealistic predictions like that.
Yea and I'm sure most of us can walk on water to. So you are saying by some freak miracle the PS3 is going to outsell the 360 by "2-3 MILLION CONSOLES PER MONTH" in a single QTR to finally break even or pull a little ahead?
They can't even make that many PS3's per month and at $499-599 no one is going to buy that many.
Hey I'd like to see the PS3 outsell the 360 by any number in one month before you start making unrealistic predictions like that.
It could, but this is highly unlikely given the facts as we know them today. Until evidence shows otherwise, why would we logically assume this to be a likely event?
I did not say PS3 will sell like the PS2. I said your argument is flawed because PS2 has shown that such a gap can be closed very quickly.
A similar scenario could occur too, even though it may not be as large. Of course, this is assuming the PS3 will get good games and pricecuts and pulls ahead doing so. This may or may not happen. However, if it does, a 250k monthly lead over the first 9 or 10 months of the year will likely turn into a million or more monthly unit lead in the last two months of the year. So if we started out with a 9 million unit lead, it will become a 6.5 million unit lead at 250k sales difference in the first 10 month of the year. In the last 2 month, this could become only a 4.5 million unit lead assuming a 1000K difference, and 3.5 million if it is a 1500K difference. The next year would certainly finish the rest of the gap.
So a modest outselling, like 250k, may need only two-thirds of the time or less to match sales relative to what you said. So your analysis is simply wrong from a logical point-of-view, which is not to say anything about the console wars.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Yes it can.....at $199.
I didn't say anything about likely or unlikely, just that the strength of the lead of the Xbox 360 is simply not that strong. It's currently on place for a solid second place according to that other article, which means sales are vulnerable to be beaten by the PS3. Whether the PS3 actually sells that well is to be seen.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Actually the lead is extremely strong given the current pricepoints.
Your assertion that PS3 can somehow outsell 360 anytime in the near future doesn't jive with the reality of the market. Price is king.
The lead is safe as long as MS is aggressive with the pricecuts (which admittedly, does remain to be seen)
Ok here's another unlikey scenario, Microsoft blows up the 360 dies today never sells another console.
The PS3 will then catch up to it in 18 months selling 500,000 consoles a month or 9 months selling 1 million a month each and every month. Even if the 360 does not sell another console we are still talking another year to catch up. It's price would prevent that from happening even if it had NO competition.
an 8-9 million console lead is about as safe as you are ever going to get in this business.
I just don't think you understand the numbers involved for the PS3 to catch up it is way way behind and the clock is already ticking in this gen. It has to start showing some consistent monthly sales numbers where it actually outsells it competition not falls behind even further EVERY month.
"Your assertion that PS3 can somehow outsell 360 anytime in the near future doesn't jive with the reality of the market. Price is king."
Just to further your point, It not only has to outsell the 360 but outsell it by a wide margin NOW for it to make any real difference this gen. Every month it doesn't outsell the 360 by 250,000-500,000 is a month closer to the end of this gen.
The PS3 will then catch up to it in 18 months selling 500,000 consoles a month or 9 months selling 1 million a month each and every month. Even if the 360 does not sell another console we are still talking another year to catch up. It's price would prevent that from happening even if it had NO competition.
an 8-9 million console lead is about as safe as you are ever going to get in this business.
I just don't think you understand the numbers involved for the PS3 to catch up it is way way behind and the clock is already ticking in this gen. It has to start showing some consistent monthly sales numbers where it actually outsells it competition not falls behind even further EVERY month.
"Your assertion that PS3 can somehow outsell 360 anytime in the near future doesn't jive with the reality of the market. Price is king."
Just to further your point, It not only has to outsell the 360 but outsell it by a wide margin NOW for it to make any real difference this gen. Every month it doesn't outsell the 360 by 250,000-500,000 is a month closer to the end of this gen.
Wow brosefs, people are getting pretty mean about this prediction stuff. Are there MFST or SnY shareholders here?
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There is way too much time left in this battle to it should be noted that Mfst has done a great job (other than shoddy soldering on early consoles) in selling the 360 in the US. They are in a great position after the head start and will look better when the Halo3/60 packages come to the market. There lead is not insurmountable however. It's not so much what Mfst won't do right or Sony will do. There are just certain markets in the world that will not accept the 360 (ahem, Japan), or places that for whatever reasons aren't too hot on it. It is not unreasonable to think that the 360 will conquer the US and fall everywhere else, but we'll see.
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There is way too much time left in this battle to it should be noted that Mfst has done a great job (other than shoddy soldering on early consoles) in selling the 360 in the US. They are in a great position after the head start and will look better when the Halo3/60 packages come to the market. There lead is not insurmountable however. It's not so much what Mfst won't do right or Sony will do. There are just certain markets in the world that will not accept the 360 (ahem, Japan), or places that for whatever reasons aren't too hot on it. It is not unreasonable to think that the 360 will conquer the US and fall everywhere else, but we'll see.
PS2 had the safest lead you would ever likely get. It was about 20 or so million by the time the Xbox or GC launched. XBox 360's lead is not 9 million either, it's probably more like 7 million, which is not nearly as safe. Plus sales are not as strong as the PS2 with it's lead. Assuming the PS3 does not stay at $600 forever (a fairly safe assumption), we cannot claim anything solid about the 360's lead.
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