PS3 predictionS now that it launched in all territories

[swanlee]

"it could quite easily overtake in under 2 years."

Mid 2009, that would mean the the 360 would have had the lead at least 3.5 years of this gen.

And your idea of the PS3 catching up in 1 qtr is as likely as my scenario where MS blows up and never ships another console and it would still take the PS3 over a year to catch up simply based on the PS3's price point.

I'll go on record right now and say the PS3 will NEVER catch the 360 in worldwide sales. The 360 is a moving target that sells consistently and is just about ready for a price cut and has more than enough 3rd party and exclusive game support to match PS3 sales through it's lifetime.

It's going to reach the 199$ price point much sooner than the PS3 and it's current lead will take it through the most important years of this gen.

 

[TheChefO]

Wow brosefs, people are getting pretty mean about this prediction stuff. Are there MFST or SnY shareholders here?
-----
There is way too much time left in this battle to it should be noted that Mfst has done a great job (other than shoddy soldering on early consoles) in selling the 360 in the US. They are in a great position after the head start and will look better when the Halo3/60 packages come to the market. There lead is not insurmountable however. It's not so much what Mfst won't do right or Sony will do. There are just certain markets in the world that will not accept the 360 (ahem, Japan), or places that for whatever reasons aren't too hot on it. It is not unreasonable to think that the 360 will conquer the US and fall everywhere else, but we'll see.

Actually, MS has shown the ability to sell (in limited numbers) in Japan with a game targeted to their audience. IF FF goes multiplat, I still see them trailing in sales in that region, but it would surely sell better than xb1 and certainly seems to be trending upward with future realeases in the region. Though I will say Japan has traditionaly picked one horse and backed that horse fully so I will temper my optimism in that region. (Wii ownage)

Europe I honestly thought ps3 would do better given my perception of the region and their respect/admiration for Sony and PS3 but they didn't do bad.

Regarding the rest of your post. The responses are based on reality. Reality is there is currently a large userbase gap between xb360 and ps3 and the kicker is the gap is growing by the day. This at current prices. When xb360 drops to $200 ... Timing this price drop with some blockbusters coming this year in Gta4, Forza2 and Halo3 and it could get ugly.

 

[NERO]

Actually, MS has shown the ability to sell (in limited numbers) in Japan with a game targeted to their audience. IF FF goes multiplat....

Let's not start with this again since it is a huge if, but IF it happened the 360 would surely do better. Blue Dragon moved some systems in Japan, and might be the game that makes me buy a 360

Timing this price drop with some blockbusters coming this year in Gta4, Forza2 and Halo3 and it could get ugly.

There is no doubt that 360 sales will go far due to Halo and GTA4, but we should note that MGS4 and PS3's GTA4 will also make a dent. The only exclusive PS3 killer apps that sell more than Halo3 are FFXIII and definitely the next Gran Turismo. Either way we gamers will have tons of options. I am still thoroughly enjoying my PS2, GC and GBA "player" and will dive into this gen when the price is right.

 

[LogisticX]

I do recall the PS2 outselling the Xbox and Gamecube despite being more expensive than either one during peroids of its life. So yes, it IS possible for a more expensive console to sell better than others.
Moreover, we don't even know what prices will be come the end of the year.


I like that you are so unbelievably optimistic about what MS is going to do and completely pessimistic about Sony. I guess being slightly objective is out of the question for you, yes?

 

[Vic]

Actually the lead is extremely strong given the current pricepoints.

Your assertion that PS3 can somehow outsell 360 anytime in the near future doesn't jive with the reality of the market. Price is king.

The lead is safe as long as MS is aggressive with the pricecuts (which admittedly, does remain to be seen)

No price isnt the only factor. PS3 has only been out for a few months and with few AAA games, so its very likely you're reading too much into its sales (which arent even bad). Games are king. You think people are gonna care about $100 or $200 if they consider another console (which they may own for five years) likely to have more AAA titles? You seem obsessed with price in your analysis, but certainly in Europe people are not that price-sensitive. The problem 360 has, is that its still seen as the slightly infeior hardware in the eyes of the casual gamer, and most of its games are geared towards the US market (loads of Sports and FPS games). Its lead can easily be eaten up if doesnt release more diverse titles. Having said that, a price-cut would help MS, espcially considering the price difference isnt that great when you factor in peripherals (and turns into a negative if you include the HD-DVD drive).

Incidentally, the lead is 7m.

And before you say it, GT is a much bigger franchise than Halo in Europe.

 

[liolio]

In more realistic situations, assuming the PS3 does start to outsell the 360, it could quite easily overtake in under 2 years.

Woa do i understand properly in two years after this chrismass Sony could overtake MS?
In early 2009/fall 2008? so 3 years after MS launched? What will be editors attitudes in this regard?
How this could be good?
KK will even loss his position in cellius lol

 

[swanlee]

"I like that you are so unbelievably optimistic about what MS is going to do and completely pessimistic about Sony. I guess being slightly objective is out of the question for you, yes?"

I'm objective, I've broken it down in raw per month numbers, how much more objective can you get?
The facts are the PS3 has to over come the 360's current lead, in order to do that it has to OUTSELL the 360 by a large amount for a certain number of months. Given the life cycle of each console generation it just doesn't have enough time to catch up or pass the 360 given the facts we have.
The PS3 can't even outsell the 360 by a small margin, it falls further behind each and every month.

The PS2 may have sold more for a short period of time that it was more expensive but that was when it launched first compared to the Xbox and Gamecube and already had a large userbase lead and a lot more dev support, plus it was never priced 599$

The Xbox and Gamecube never caught up with the PS2 and these two consoles had more similar price points with the PS2. I don't expect the PS3 to ever catch up to the 360 where there is going to be a 200$ difference most of the time.

There has never been a case where a console had a 7-9 million console userbase lead and been caught in sales by the time the next gen starts.

 

[NERO]

Why do I have the urge to open a thread that's titled, "Which one's better? PS3 or 360?"

 

[liolio]

The problem 360 has, is that its still seen as the slightly infeior hardware in the eyes of the casual gamer, and most of its games are geared towards the US market (loads of Sports and FPS games).

And before you say it, GT is a much bigger franchise than Halo in Europe.

Yes, the 360 is always seen as an inferior hardware especially in Europe.

What games topped the uk chart during the first we of the ps3 launch?

Yes gt seems bigger than halo in Europe.

But how many units sony wil manage to move at this price is to be seen.
And more important how Europeans will react to real competition especialy with systems close in performance and with one way cheaper it's still to be seen.

 

[Vic]

I like that you are so unbelievably optimistic about what MS is going to do and completely pessimistic about Sony. I guess being slightly objective is out of the question for you, yes?[/QUOTE]

Lol thats what I was thinking.

Dont get me wrong, Halo will be big, but will it sell that massively outside of the US? And people keeping mentioning GTA, but its not like its an exclusive...I think Project Gotham will be bigger than Forza, which doesnt exactly look amazing right now.

I have friends in the industry who tell me that Heavenly Sword, Killzone and GT5 look amazing. Granted that thats just a couple of people's opinions, but they're creating a helluva buzz at Sony HQ. I want to see the reaction to these 3 titles before I write-off PS3.

 

[Vic]

Yes, the 360 is always seen as an inferior hardware especially in Europe.

What games topped the uk chart during the first we of the ps3 launch?

Yes gt seems bigger than halo in Europe.

But how many units sony wil manage to move at this price is to be seen.
And more important how Europeans will react to real competition especialy with systems close in performance and with one way cheaper it's still to be seen.

I believe Resistance was top, with Motorstorm 2nd. F1 CE and COD 3 also sold well too.

I completely agree. For Sony to come back it has to get to £350 A.S.A.P. As long as they get there, I dont really see a problem, but ONLY if the software line-up is strong. Thats where those 3 aforementioned games come in.

 

[cthellis42]

Guess no one here wants to try and tackle the idea that Sony has to outsell the 360, 250,000-500,000 consoles each and every month for 18-36 months to break even with the 360.

To people saying it's just to early to tell what's going to happen this gen I beg to differ.

The 360 ostensibly has a lead of ~7 million right now. You are quoting a weird range that seems to traverse anywhere from 4.5 to 18 million. Suffice it to say that--paraphrasing Rumsfeld--there are known knows, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns that may affect how things roll out between now and 2010+.

Personally, I'm just hoping that Sony opens themselves up, as--excepting in Blu-Ray's case--they appear to be doing. (But with two adamant standards, it's not like I expected them to NOT back their own. Was anything ever decided as to who was more "at fault" in not unifying the standards in some way back pre-launch? Or will that be something that will remain shrouded in mystery until long after both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have been abandoned?) They make compelling kit, and the PS3 is not locked down nearly as much as I would have expected. They can push their own tech, certainly, but as long as they also support open standards and give my something to play with, I think many people will be happy. Certainly if I can install my own hard drive whenever I want, and boot Linux off a USB port without having to hack the thing asunder... It'll be a nice change of pace. :smile:


Regardless, people who think the future progression of this console generation has already been written--one way or the other--are pretty wonky.

 

[NERO]

GTA4 will move many of both consoles. It was boss last gen.
GT5 is the boss seller of the Playstation brand. It is so linked to the brand that it doesn't even matter how it will look, that fact that it is the next generation of GT is enough.
Halo is the boss seller of the Xbox brand and is large enough to sell only in the US and still have a chance to sell the most "worldwide" games thise year.

I am the boss user of saying boss grrrrrrr I feel constipated...

 

[dnavas]

How in the world is PS3 going to outsell a $199-$250 360 this holiday???

Sell a PS3 for $250?

It's just not going to happen.

Your crystal ball appears to be more functional than my own

First, let me agree with you that it is unlikely.

That out of the way, isn't it likely that the items in the PS3 that are expensive are equally or *more* likely to get cheaper than the most expensive items in the XBox360? At a chip level, I think the likelihood is tied, so it would seem to come down to how fast BD drives comes down in price. There would seem more room for price reduction there than, say, in the 360's DVD drive, no?

 

[NERO]

That out of the way, isn't it likely that the items in the PS3 that are expensive are equally or *more* likely to get cheaper than the most expensive items in the XBox360? At a chip level, I think the likelihood is tied, so it would seem to come down to how fast BD drives comes down in price. There would seem more room for price reduction there than, say, in the 360's DVD drive, no?

Yes you are 100% correct in that the PS3 components have more room for price reduction than 360 components. Only problem is that some of the components are already more expensive by a factor of 2. We will have, for ex, the BRD go from 150usd to 80 usd while the 360 drive goes from 20-15usd.

 

[liolio]

I like that you are so unbelievably optimistic about what MS is going to do and completely pessimistic about Sony. I guess being slightly objective is out of the question for you, yes?[/QUOTE]



Dont get me wrong, Halo will be big, but will it sell that massively outside of the US? And people keeping mentioning GTA, but its not like its an exclusive...I think Project Gotham will be bigger than Forza, which doesnt exactly look amazing right now.

I find that gthd looks better from an artistic point of views but technically it's still to be seen.

I haven't seen the kind of reflexion I see in forza in gthd (ie accrurate reflexion of the background).
Forza has 4x AA.
Anyway I agree somewhat with you i feel like pgr4 will look better due to better artistic direction ans the fact that that this game doesn't exactly aim at realism.

I also agree with the fact that pgr4 is likely to sell better, for me forza seems to techy, too much stuffs to configure (suspensions, tires, et...).
It's a more casual gamers friendly title.

EDIT just red your last post gt is sony boss, I agree it will sell no matter what

 

[TheChefO]

Sell a PS3 for $250?



Your crystal ball appears to be more functional than my own

First, let me agree with you that it is unlikely.

That out of the way, isn't it likely that the items in the PS3 that are expensive are equally or *more* likely to get cheaper than the most expensive items in the XBox360? At a chip level, I think the likelihood is tied, so it would seem to come down to how fast BD drives comes down in price. There would seem more room for price reduction there than, say, in the 360's DVD drive, no?

No, it isn't likely that ps3 will ever be cheaper than xb360. Close yes, but by that time the gen will be defined. (2009-2010)

More room for reductions though, yes - agreed

as for selling a ps3 at $250 ... judging from Sony's financials I don't think they can afford it, but it would certainly open this gen up considerably!

 

[Jesus2006]

Already posted?

More than a million consoles were shipped across Europe on launch day last week with 600,000 sold.

Quite a success i would say

 

[infinity4]

Already posted?

Quite a success i would say

as a $/Euro 600 / 425GBP console, yes i agree with you. no doubt about that.

 

[Crossbar]

In isolation you would be 100% correct. However the ps3 is not in isolation. So it's performance ramp does not matter how it compares to ps2 (even though it doesn't match it - fyi)

If ps3 were launching 1st with these types of numbers it would be "ok" but it isn't and is currently trailing in 3rd place with no sign of outselling either competition at anytime this year. Maybe next year will be different but saying and thinking such would be illogical as there is no evidence to suggest it.

"Some people take for granted that the 360 and the PS3 will follow a similar life cycle curve and end simultanously."

That still does not take into account the PS3 has to outsell the 360 by 250,000 consoles each and every month just to break even by mid 2010. By 2010 the relevance of this gen will be diminishing in preparation for next gen and at that they will only be BREAKING EVEN if they start outselling the 360 by ALOT.

Am I the only one who thinks the absolute opposite, that the relevance of this generation is peaking at about 2010, probably even later?

"Nothing right now shows the PS3 will start outselling the 360 monthly any time soon let alone outsell them by 250,000. MS can drop prices much sooner than the PS3 and doesn't have to drop prices near as much to hit the 199$ mass market sweet spot.

Sony is simply running out of time to catch up this gen and have it still mean anything. The 360 is not just going to sit there at the same price forever and let the PS3 sail by, and even if it did we are talking 3 years before the user base is even.

Has it ever occurred to you that the PS3 does not even need to outsell the 360 on a monthly basis until after the sales of the 360 has peaked in order to outsell the 360 during its life time?

The PS3 seems so far to be approx. following the sales of the 360s first year at a 50% higher price. Don´t give some the "360 was supply limit", because the sales weren´t exactly sky-rocketing when supply improved.

Now the interesting question when do you think the sales of the 360 will peak?