The AMD Execution Thread [2007 - 2017]
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In the year 2012 we're all going to evolve. Think I'm LYING? Look it up, its true. And then, videogames won't matter because we will be pure energy. In fact, if you say anything bad about ATI or AMD, I'm going to reverse time once I'm energy and murder you. In fact, you could be dead already. Crazy huh.
The Q1 results showed that AMD's CPU group had losses far in excess of the graphics division.
The former ATI lost 40 million, while the CPU division lost 320 million.
I'm not sure it's saying much to say that the CPU division will be primarily responsible for any shortfalls in the near and mid term.
The former ATI lost 40 million, while the CPU division lost 320 million.
I'm not sure it's saying much to say that the CPU division will be primarily responsible for any shortfalls in the near and mid term.
The executive team sold the 1Q ~600M loss as "a perfect storm". They need to do significantly better than that for 2Q or they may finally face more open signs of revolt.
July 19th. I expect that AMD will actually have some good numbers.
Why's that?
Good? I guess if you're a devil worshipper and you pray for the day of Apocalypse every night, then yes, 'good' might fit the bill. Not much longer until we know for sure, anyway...
EDIT: More seriously, Q1's non-GAAP results were -$363M operating income with gross margins of 31%. I expect this to be -$500M or more, with gross margins at or below 27.5%. As for how the stock price will be affected by that, I won't try guessing, given that I presume the restructuring plan will play a key role in that.
I'm not really too interested in non-GAAP right now with AMD, because they've been stuffing huge sums in "one time acquistion charges" the last two quarters ($664M). Until that stops (hopefully with this quarter) I think we can't get a good picture of reality with non-GAAP.
The number I'm looking at is the -$611M from last Q. I want to see that number get significantly better. I'd say that Arun's prediction just above on the non-GAAP would suggest he doesn't think it will.
The number I'm looking at is the -$611M from last Q. I want to see that number get significantly better. I'd say that Arun's prediction just above on the non-GAAP would suggest he doesn't think it will.
I agree this is going to be a very bad Q for AMD.
With everything in mind, I am at a total loss as to how AMD's stock is rising.......can anyone explain?
Most people don't actually pay nearly as close attention as we do. Some see Intel doing fabulous and they generalize that as the sector doing fabulous. Others like to be contrarian and hope for an upside surprise to make a quick buck around announcement time.
But it hasn't been as high as it right now since late January, I think. So, I think there's going to be a sharp move on the stock tomorrow, if I had to guess, one way or the other.
overclocked_enthusiasm
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Well, the bad new is they lost $600 million again. The good news is unit volumes were up 38% Q/Q so they beat on the top line. Once again the waters were muddied with a bunch of ATI one time expenses but there was significant cashburn this quarter again.
Gross margins improved to the mid 30's thanks to a higher percentage of 65 nm products in the face of falling desktop ASPs. They did state that ASPs imprved for both servers and mobile. They wrote off $30 million in obsolete DDR1 inventory which contracted gross margins by 2% points. Barcelona on track for Q3 and Phenom for Q4. CapEx cut another $200 million to $1.8 billion for 2007. SOI may be scrapped for 32 nm from what I heard.
Overall a big improvement from Q1 but they can't continue with these losses forever.
Gross margins improved to the mid 30's thanks to a higher percentage of 65 nm products in the face of falling desktop ASPs. They did state that ASPs imprved for both servers and mobile. They wrote off $30 million in obsolete DDR1 inventory which contracted gross margins by 2% points. Barcelona on track for Q3 and Phenom for Q4. CapEx cut another $200 million to $1.8 billion for 2007. SOI may be scrapped for 32 nm from what I heard.
Overall a big improvement from Q1 but they can't continue with these losses forever.
I can't agree it's a "big improvement over Q1". Sure, there are some bright spots. But the bottom line is that having sold a $611M Q1 loss as "a perfect storm", the improvement of Q2 was all the way to a loss of $600M. Excuse me? That's less than 2% improvement. Are these "two perfect storms" in a row? Or is this just what it is right now and wake up and smell the coffee and start doing something?
The continuation of stuffing serious numbers into one time acquistion charges is definitely getting an aroma to it as well.
The continuation of stuffing serious numbers into one time acquistion charges is definitely getting an aroma to it as well.
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