Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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Well it was a trade off. They wanted one pool of RAM, but than bandwidth wasn't enough so they had to go with eDRAM. Besides, in 2005 they couldn't get more than 10 MB of eDRAM anyway.

Games heavy on transparencies generally cope better on 360 and there are more sub hd no AA games on PS3 so I don't exactly see your point.

Actually, based on the game resolutions done here, PS3 has the higher average resolution (just above HD, IIRC). I did the math on that, some time ago. I will find the link.

The PS3's average resolution over 301 listed resolutions is ABOVE HD (1284 x 758 rounding to nearest point).

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1581459&postcount=76

EDIT: However, you could still be correct about the amount of sub-HD games on the PS3. It's just that the overall average resolution is above HD.
 
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new kotaku next gen article:

If you talk to people about the next-gen games at, oh, I don't know, a major gaming trade show or a major gaming awards show, the persistent impression given is that these new systems will be powerful. The old comparison I heard—and saw backed up by a solid report on IGN—was that the new Xbox would be eight times more powerful than the 360. That's old reporting, from earlier in the year. We've also heard that Durango is roughly as graphically capable as the second-most powerful PC on the market today, which, yes, is quite the indirect statement. The chatter we hear is that Durango and Orbis are close in power to each other or at least both in the same league past the current gen. Much may have changed since then and, as any Wii U owner can tell you, it's damn hard to assess how powerful a system is even when playing the first batch of games a developer made for it. (Or don't ask a Wii U user... ask an Xbox 360 user to compare 2005 360 launch games Kameo: Elements of Power or Perfect Dark Zero to 2012's Halo 4).


2nd most powerful PC? So, 7950 or 670 hint I guess if taken at face value.

The vibe I get when I hear about Durango is that Microsoft is on the mark. Sony appears to inspire less confidence, though I've had a hard time nailing down why and discerning how much lost confidence is due to the on-and-off troubles of the PlayStation 3 and the struggles of the Vita vs. how much lost confidence is due to any problems looming for PS4. What I do know is that confidence is high that the next Xbox will be out in time for next Christmas. Confidence is less high that Sony will pull off the same feat, though they want to.
 
If Sony misses the mark and came with a system with no clear advantage (/ or light disadvantage), I think there are going to be a lot of tears on the webz...
I still think that it is borderline suicidal for Sony to go head to head with MSFT at this point but it could be worse, like rushing the system and dealing with RroD like C....r f..k they can't financial deal with...

I'm pretty dark about Sony right now, 4 big CPU cores by selves should burn quiet some power, it could get really ugly if on top of similar or lesser performances the system is significantly less power efficient with an impact on form factor or the cost of the cooling solution or what not.
I also wonder what will be the reaction to the lack of BC on the system (whereas it seems to me a bit more likely for MSFT to pull it even though it would require another engineering "tour de force").
 
With all these rumors, finally feels like the next generation is coming lol.
7970 sounds like fanboy's dream though, unless they miraculously finds the way to manufacture in 20nm.
 
I hope both consoles are on equal grounds, would hate if one gets overshadowed and forged to oblivion (ok, slight hyperbola) but MS as company would look pretty stupid if they don't go for the "kill" now.

In comparison with last gen they aren't loosing billions from previous gen console, they will actually be making hefty profit on 360 next year, and than the year to come too. They also have solid revenue from LIVE and can even sell Durango on contract. Plus, they gained huge market in US where they are practically household name when gaming is mentioned.

Sony on the other hand doesn't have a lot of headroom and their direction does seem a bit foggy at the moment. They don't want to be left behind in performance race, but they can't lose much money on their next console, especially if they even think of coming out later. That would be their Dreamcast moment (not hyperbola).
 
If Sony misses the mark and came with a system with no clear advantage (/ or light disadvantage), I think there are going to be a lot of tears on the webz...
I still think that it is borderline suicidal for Sony to go head to head with MSFT at this point but it could be worse, like rushing the system and dealing with RroD like C....r f..k they can't financial deal with...

I'm pretty dark about Sony right now, 4 big CPU cores by selves should burn quiet some power, it could get really ugly if on top of similar or lesser performances the system is significantly less power efficient with an impact on form factor or the cost of the cooling solution or what not.
I also wonder what will be the reaction to the lack of BC on the system (whereas it seems to me a bit more likely for MSFT to pull it even though it would require another engineering "tour de force").

They have to go head to head because it's a brand image thing. They've lost that image in most other venues of consumer electronics and games are one way to keep it up. I think they clearly have a better repertoire of 1st party developers and IPs attached to their brand to build on.

Frankly, I'd be surprised if either system had BC. They either have to put a cell in the ps4 (expensive in many ways) or use Cell 2 (which doesn't exist). MS has no incentive to given that the PS4 won't have it as a selling point. Then once you get into devoting a team to that, which costs money, and you weigh that against porting 360 games and redistributing via Xbox Live (which makes money), the choice seems rather obvious.

BC is almost expected but when you look at its heritage, there's no reason to expect it. Modern age BC started on the PS2 with PS1 BC. That was possible because the PS1 wasn't bleeding edge hardware by any means. PS2 to PS3 didn't happen because of hardware incompatibilities and the difficulty of software emulation, so they slapped a PS2 inside every PS3. Xbox to 360 only happened because Microsoft has extreme software expertise and their CPU wasn't bleeding edge.

Wii and Wii U BC has only happened because their chips are essentially the same damn architecture.

Both MS and Sony are switching architectures this time so it's just an insurmountable task given the complexity of their previous CPU designs. It also doesn't make financial sense.

The description is so vague that it could easily mean second most powerful chip, so basically a Pitcairn.

The short of it is, I'm finding it difficult to find a bad way to interpret that statement given the 1 to 2 TF rumors we've had thrown at us.
 
I hope both consoles are on equal grounds, would hate if one gets overshadowed and forged to oblivion (ok, slight hyperbola) but MS as company would look pretty stupid if they don't go for the "kill" now.

In comparison with last gen they aren't loosing billions from previous gen console, they will actually be making hefty profit on 360 next year, and than the year to come too. They also have solid revenue from LIVE and can even sell Durango on contract. Plus, they gained huge market in US where they are practically household name when gaming is mentioned.

Sony on the other hand doesn't have a lot of headroom and their direction does seem a bit foggy at the moment. They don't want to be left behind in performance race, but they can't lose much money on their next console, especially if they even think of coming out later. That would be their Dreamcast moment (not hyperbola).
I think this would happen only if the 2 systems compete on equal grounds with regards to price too.
There needs to be a quiet significant difference in pricing, and possibly match the price by solid availability at launch. I think that they should try to make a 249$ single SKU happens (16 or 32GB of Flash and a standard HDD slot), 299$ if they have to make the HDD standard.
In both case they should make it so they can shave 50$ if needed or to create extra intensive during the holidays seasons (before price reduction kicks in).

As you said, MSFT can use "live" to make up for loses (though it takes away some costumers imho), they have a neat advantage wrt to software and software environment, they have Kinect which is a reasonably known brand (for the mass public), they have smart glass, they have a lot of traction in US, they also have more money.
 
They have to go head to head because it's a brand image thing. They've lost that image in most other venues of consumer electronics and games are one way to keep it up. I think they clearly have a better repertoire of 1st party developers and IPs attached to their brand to build on.
Imo that would be from their side misplaced pride pretty much as the PSV is over specced and thus over priced.
I see no relation between their strong IP and hardware sorry.
Frankly, I'd be surprised if either system had BC. They either have to put a cell in the ps4 (expensive in many ways) or use Cell 2 (which doesn't exist). MS has no incentive to given that the PS4 won't have it as a selling point. Then once you get into devoting a team to that, which costs money, and you weigh that against porting 360 games and redistributing via Xbox Live (which makes money), the choice seems rather obvious.
I would be really iffy about it too, though I'm close to sure that Sony can't, whereas MSFT can (try at least...).
You can still come with remake a bit later on in the console life (and it would be trivial as this gen seems to be nothing less but closed box PC, it would be mostly a damned easy port from the old PC versions, I could see EA refeeding people a reworked, stream lined version of Mass effect trilogy for example).
BC is almost expected but when you look at its heritage, there's no reason to expect it. Modern age BC started on the PS2 with PS1 BC. That was possible because the PS1 wasn't bleeding edge hardware by any means. PS2 to PS3 didn't happen because of hardware incompatibilities and the difficulty of software emulation, so they slapped a PS2 inside every PS3. Xbox to 360 only happened because Microsoft has extreme software expertise and their CPU wasn't bleeding edge.
Well peoplke have buy quiet some content ( I mean xbla games) on Live and the PSN then there are (full downloaded) games, etc. If they can pull it at the cost of paying a couple of top developers they may very well decide it is worth the money.
Wii and Wii U BC has only happened because their chips are essentially the same damn architecture.
Well we don't really know what they did on the GPU either but Nintendo is hell bent on making no effort at all on that front, they are imo to pay the price...
Both MS and Sony are switching architectures this time so it's just an insurmountable task given the complexity of their previous CPU designs. It also doesn't make financial sense.
Do you know how much the guy that pulled out Bc on the 360 got paid?
I think you don't neither I did but I would avoid making such big assumption.
MSFT may end up with another SMP set-up, a UMA and possibly a pool of fast memory, so overall from a high level something pretty close to the 360. Still a "tour de force" but nowhere near emulating the Cell, pretty much in the ballpark of doing what they did with the first xbox.
I don't see either the point about "the complexity of their previous CPU design" I would not be too surprised if the celeron in the first xbox was in many regards more complex than Xenon.
 
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With all these rumors, finally feels like the next generation is coming lol.
7970 sounds like fanboy's dream though, unless they miraculously finds the way to manufacture in 20nm.

Anything's possible for a price and (lack of) supply. ;)
 
Both MS and Sony are switching architectures this time so it's just an insurmountable task given the complexity of their previous CPU designs. It also doesn't make financial sense.
Not insurmountable. Not easy by any means, but it can be done. The tricky bits would be highly optimized VMX128 code. Might be able to offload some of that to a couple of CUs doing GPGPU. A full emulator solution like the 360 is unlikely, but there are other ways of solving the problem.

Do you know how much the guy that pulled out Bc on the 360 got paid?
I think you don't neither I did but I would avoid making such big assumption.
Quite a few guys, and they were paid normal developer salaries, although I suspect they got good bonuses that year. They were so valued that for years their official titles in the company directory was "Emulation Ninja". Most of them still work in the Xbox org, along with Dave Cutler, who wrote the NT kernel.

It's not about the developer salaries though, it's about the testing effort involved. Every backcompat title had to have thousands of hours of testing before it could be added to the list of allowed titles, and every update to the backcompat subsystem required a full test run through all previously incompatible titles to see if any of them could now be moved into the compat list. Luckily they had the concept of versioned backcompat, or previously compatible titles would have had to be run through the new emulator too. That still happened for titles that had some issues, so that they could be moved to the new emulator version if they improved performance.

Effectively, every title added to the compat list cost the company a hundred thousand dollars, not counting lost game sales because now people were playing an older game instead of buying newer ones. The benefits of adding a game to the list was _maybe_ an old xbox diehard user would now switch and buy a 360 (on which the company would lose money) and then play their old game (from which the company no longer made any money - with exceptions like Halo 2). For new users it was essentially irrelevant.
 
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