Post Xbox One Two Scorpio, what should Sony do next? *spawn* (oh, and Nintendo?)

:) It's time for fanfiction timeline:

1. Few years before launch of 8th gen, AMD clearly presented to both Sony and MS that they can offer easy upgrades without breaking SW compatibility
2. MS struggles after launch, orders the beefiest hardware AMD can produce on 14nm so that they can finally remove the "performance" problem that helped PS4 in its early years
3. Sony hears rumblings that MS is preparing to release very strong successor of Xbone to the market in late 2017 [zen+polaris+hbm2]
4. Sony orders quick & dirty Jaguar+Polaris update that can be released just in time when price of base PS4 can be reduced at $250-299 level
5. MS releases Scorpio when PS4+Neo [who both use identical software] install base is at impressive 70M+ and multiplatform development is still actively targeting 1.8TF level of base PS4
6. Sony continues to rock with PS4+PS4K until 2019 when they can introduce hardware for which devs can start making exclusive games.


The big question that remains is will MS enable game devs to create exclusive titles just for Scorpio.


I think this works for Sony only if they can get to $199 for holiday 2017. If Neo is significantly less powerful than Scorpion, the PS4 would have to bottom out quickly.
 
The cheapest PS3 was achieved when Sony ripped HDD out of it. I can't see that happening now when 500GB is a minimum what customers expect, but maybe they can rip out BD drive and offer 14nm APU "slim" model for $199.
 
:) It's time for fanfiction timeline:

1. Few years before launch of 8th gen, AMD clearly presented to both Sony and MS that they can offer easy upgrades without breaking SW compatibility
2. MS struggles after launch, orders the beefiest hardware AMD can produce on 14nm so that they can finally remove the "performance" problem that helped PS4 in its early years
3. Sony hears rumblings that MS is preparing to release very strong successor of Xbone to the market in late 2017 [zen+polaris+hbm2]
4. Sony orders quick & dirty Jaguar+Polaris update that can be released just in time when price of base PS4 can be reduced at $250-299 level
5. MS releases Scorpio when PS4+Neo [who both use identical software] install base is at impressive 70M+ and multiplatform development is still actively targeting 1.8TF level of base PS4
6. Sony continues to rock with PS4+PS4K until 2019 when they can introduce hardware for which devs can start making exclusive games.


The big question that remains is will MS enable game devs to create exclusive titles just for Scorpio.
Even if Sony did know about Scorpio (obligatory planned well in advance note, etc, etc), Neo seems redundant. Why not go for Polaris/Zen/HBM in 2017 alongside Scorpio? Sony is the market leader, and market leaders are not often reactionary.

Also, 2019 doesn't make sense in technology terms. What big advancement is AMD having in 2018 (console 1 year later)? Polaris/Zen/HBM was AMD's big bet years in the making (since 2012), and they'll likely be iterative again for a few years until 7nm. We are in tick-tick-tick-tock these days.

In reality, I think both of these companies have their own agenda apart from each other and it just happens to fall into the ironic situation we have now. It does seem like XBox is in the best position here, even being a year later (as long as it's $400-450 US max).

In terms of exclusive Scorpio, MS should allow it, but no devs will do it anyway until year 3 or later. Too small an install base is risky. So consumers won't see the true power of the system until later. With iterative consoles, I'd say this should be our expectation going forward. It's like a PC or something.
 
:) It's time for fanfiction timeline:


3. Sony hears rumblings that MS is preparing to release very strong successor of Xbone to the market in late 2017 [zen+polaris+hbm2]

But I don't think Polaris was designed for HBM2. Not that AMD couldn't semi-custom anything MS (or Sony) wants, but if Scorpio is launching Fall 2017, wouldn't it make more sense to have a Zen+Vega+HBM2 SoC ?
 
But I don't think Polaris was designed for HBM2. Not that AMD couldn't semi-custom anything MS (or Sony) wants, but if Scorpio is launching Fall 2017, wouldn't it make more sense to have a Zen+Vega+HBM2 SoC ?

That's my hope, but given the they are "only" targetting 5-6 Tflops (allegedly), Polaris with GDDR5x should suffice. I think with that kind of performance, HBM only makes sense if the power consumption savings and motherboard area reduction lead to an actual BOM reduction.

We'll probably have a better idea once Polaris actually launches and can get actual bandwidth and performance data.
 
R&D for Zen chip would be high. AMD won't make APUs with Zen at first.
HBM2 and GDDR5X will be still costly for consoles in 2017.
 
And without Zen 60FPS as the standard for console games will probably still be a pipe dream for the foreseeable future. :(
 
Would a Scorpio based on Zen APU be coming almost a year after desktop Zen CPU's have been release? Aren't Zen CPU's rumored to hit at the end of the year?
 
What's funny is the whole point of universal windows apps was supposed to be the convergence of apps between windows desktop and windows mobile. But with Microsoft practically exiting mobile it could be be that the universal platform ends up mainly used to converge gaming between Xbox and Windows desktop....

I bet Microsoft wouldn't have predicted that...

Edit: Although yeah if Microsoft releases a couple of Xbox TV streaming devices, universal apps will be important.
 
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Who else is making Windows phones? With 4% market share and not even Ms making handsets, how is it supposed to grow? Personally I believed in the vision until getting a Win10 tablet, and now I've no interest in a Windows mobile ecosystem. If a techie like me isn't interested, how is MS going to penetrate the mainstream market, when not providing their own handset (and not really providing software because the app store isn't appealing to devs)?
 
Their mobile platform is definitely threatened, or at the very least... has a hard road ahead.

I guess yea their only Windows Mobile area is with the low-powered tablets. The Surface from MS is basically regular laptop/desktop Windows I guess?
 
Windows Mobile isnt dead in the same way Blackberry isn't "dead."

As always you're being a bit disingenuous. W10 Mobile Devices vs Blackberry Devices.

Back on topic.

GamesBeat: What does dev mode on Xbox mean for developers? Do you expect that to bring in more indie devs and make that a more available platform?

Spencer: I don’t know if it will necessarily bring in more indie game devs, mainly because we have so many now. [Director of ID@Xbox Chris Charla] and the team at ID have done a good job. When teams needed dev kits, we sent out dev kits. We have thousands of indie studios building games. It seems like you can’t go a week without a few of them launching. We did our indie showcase at GDC. It’s not because I don’t want to embrace indie game devs coming in. I just think they’ve figured out how to navigate the territory.

What we’re likely to see is a lot of apps. When Apple TV opened up the app store on their fourth version this last year, there was some excitement around that. Then I looked at our Xbox base and how big it is relative to that base. I said, “We should have an open app platform.” If I’m a creator and I build a weather app, a home automation app, a traffic app — [there are] a bunch of cool scenarios that app developers will go off and drive. Instead of sending dev kits out, we just figured out how to turn every Xbox into a dev kit.

My expectation is that the app category will grow. Like with any app store, you’ll have some vertical things. Somebody builds things for a specific widget or scenario in their home. Then, I think you’ll have other things that are like stock tickers, or news feeds that get fed in an interesting way. That’s what I’m hoping for.

We teased this almost three years ago. Our problem was that the app model on Xbox was proprietary to us. We call it SRA, shared resource application. Those are the apps that, if you were going to go build a Netflix or YouTube app, you would build. We had to handhold you. We didn’t have a good dev platform. It wasn’t integrated into Visual Studio and all the tools developers would use. Or it was, but it was kind of a duct tape and baling wire thing.

We stepped back and said, “If app developers really want to target tens of millions of TVs, we should have it work like building any other application.” The reason we waited so long was because I wanted to get UWP to a point where I could say, “Hey, Windows developers, the millions of you that are already out there, instead of having to learn something else to put your app on Xbox, we’ve just moved Xbox over, so it supports the apps you’re already building.”

We’ll see the app traffic pick up. I’m excited to see what people build. We’ll see some interesting things. We’ll probably see some games. But I expect the bigger interest will be from app developers who’ve wanted to get to television at scale. We’re going to offer a scale television platform that I don’t see in the other ecosystems right now, given the number of users and the engagement we have.

GamesBeat: This is different from ID, right? That’s the better route to go make a game.

Spencer: That’s a great question. ID@Xbox gives you access to building native Xbox games. If you’re an indie developer today and you want to build Flame in the Flood, say, go ID. Apply to the ID program. We’ll let you in. Go get the ability to build native Xbox applications. But if we look forward, I want to enable those UWA games to run as well as Flame in the Flood does as a native Xbox game in the future.

Today, the application space that a game runs in on an Xbox One is different than the full games. If you’re going to build a Unity or Unreal or some other big game, do it that way. But you’ll see UWA games coming to Xbox sooner rather than later. Using the ability to take their code base, as Kevin showed in his dialogue, and build UI layers for different platforms — what’s a lighter-weight game? One of our biggest games on Xbox Live happens to be Microsoft Solitaire. It’s massive on Xbox Live. If I was going to move Solitaire over to Xbox, I probably wouldn’t move it over to be a native Xbox game. It’s just dragging cards around. I’d leave it as a UWA and run it on Xbox that way. But longer term, I’d like to bring those things together.

http://venturebeat.com/2016/04/03/m...il-spencer-on-openness-hololens-and-xbox-1-5/

Figured the UWA parts were interesting.

Tommy McClain
 
Who else is making Windows phones? With 4% market share and not even Ms making handsets, how is it supposed to grow? Personally I believed in the vision until getting a Win10 tablet, and now I've no interest in a Windows mobile ecosystem. If a techie like me isn't interested, how is MS going to penetrate the mainstream market, when not providing their own handset (and not really providing software because the app store isn't appealing to devs)?

Check my links. There are other manufacturers. MS might not be making any handsets at this moment, but doesn't mean they won't in the future.

Tommy McClain
 
Maybe its just me, but this year E3 can not happen soon enough. Hoping for some actual information on these various beast consoles and the revised models.

I think I'm all speculationed out on who should do what and when.
And there's a good chance the only thing you'll get is an xbox one slim

And a TLG teaser.
 
And there's a good chance the only thing you'll get is an xbox one slim

And a TLG teaser.

Well I hope it includes news about refined controller (and a streaming stick). I do need a new controller, but been holding off due to rumors.
 
Maybe its just me, but this year E3 can not happen soon enough. Hoping for some actual information on these various beast consoles and the revised models.

I think I'm all speculationed out on who should do what and when.
Neo information might wait until October though, I think Sony has some other conference in Fall period.

E3 may be for PS VR only on Sony side. I'm also hoping we get lots Neo/Scorpio information, but it's possible we get very little information on one or both. Hopefully more though. I guess it also depends just how far these things are from release... the longer we are from release, the less they will want to reveal for sure.

I'm even kind of wondering maybe Scorpio is ~2 years from release. Maybe they want to completely restart a new generation with 6 tflops in November 2018? My guess is such a machine is at a better consumer price point by then too, say even $400.
 
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