NPD June 2011

[Shifty Geezer]

Except there were also the $50 gift card promotions and kinect wasn't available in June last year.

That's not "except". There are two distinct points here. 1 - is the 500k figure anomalous or not? 2 - if so, what has caused the anomaly?

Point 1 you have contested saying it's just a continuation of the yearly growth. Brad and I disagree as last year was exceptionally high. This response doesn't show this year's YoY growth to be within expectations.

Point 2 you explain here with some reasons for the anomaly, which I can kinda go along with, very undecided as there's no hard numbers I'm seeing. Whereas Brad is currently holding to an "inaccurate figures" theory.

For me, the argument now is all about how the figures got to be high, and not whether they are beyond what's expected or not. I can't imagine anyone would predict 500k consoles for June ordinarily without some accelerator to push sales.

 

[AlphaWolf]

The $50 gift promotion, was in June. Do you think that promotion had no effect?

Everyone certainly wants to ignore it. Why?

 

[Brad Grenz]

The $50 gift promotion, was in June. Do you think that promotion had no effect?

Everyone certainly wants to ignore it. Why?

Because PS3 had comparable $50, $60 and $100 promotions and didn't see comparable extraordinary growth? We're looking for anomalous factors specific to the 360. Specific to June.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Because PS3 had comparable $50, $60 and $100 promotions and didn't see comparable extraordinary growth? We're looking for anomalous factors specific to the 360. Specific to June.

One doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the other, the systems aren't in a vacuum. Perhaps the $50 gift card promotion was popular with a more casual audience who wanted in on kinect. Or 1 of 1000 other reasons such as advertising levels, psn issue carryover, ps3 inventory issues etc etc.

You clearly just want to ignore everything that doesn't support your agenda, so by all means carry on. I'm done with this topic for now.

 

[Brad Grenz]

You're aware that accusing me of having an agenda doesn't actually explain anything, right?

 

[AlphaWolf]

You're aware that accusing me of having an agenda doesn't actually explain anything, right?

You're aware that ignoring data that doesn't support your argument makes it seem like you have an agenda, right?

 

[Brad Grenz]

What data? You're theory that a $50 rebate promo was an unprecedented hit? That's speculation just as much as wondering if transactions are being counted that haven't normally been counted by NPD. And I can just as easily claim you have an agenda. Should we just have an argument now about who's agenda is bigger? You see how fruitless that line of thinking is?

 

[AlphaWolf]

What data? You're theory that a $50 rebate promo was an unprecedented hit?

How is it unprecedented? 1.37 million in november, 535k in Feb. I believe the only promotion in Feb. being that kinect was back in stock.

The slim is still available... kinect is now available... +$50 gift card. They have shown growth every month with June being the lowest growth. Only January was close to that low of a growth within the last 12 months and January they were out of Kinect. You add all that up and a 12% jump doesn't seem unprecedented, the lower growth this June actually suggests some correction for the fact that June last year had a massive jump.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The $50 gift promotion, was in June. Do you think that promotion had no effect?

No, and I even said I can go along with that. Are you even reading my posts?!

Everyone certainly wants to ignore it. Why?

Oh yeah, I forgot, internet discussion don't allow for individuals to have individual ideas. Hence when I say I and Brad think different things, I get lumped with him as a 'doubter'.

Again, I (me, as an individual) think that 500k is exceptional and needs an explanation (I don't think you disagree with this), and I'm open to well reasoned suggestions, either as to the cause, or as to why that 500k is par for the course. Gift cards etc. are a suggestion, but not a very solid explanation as others will argue. The best explanation I can come up with is XB360 is seeing robust growth due to Kinect and in conjunction with other others, numerous factors have helped give sales an extra 10-20% boost. No-one's presenting real number-based arguments (eg. Brad hasn't referenced sales increases due to other discount offers) here so both sides are kinda going on faith rather than fact.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

How is it unprecedented? 1.37 million in november, 535k in Feb. I believe the only promotion in Feb. being that kinect was back in stock.

That's gonna be a big deal! All those people wanting Kinect for Christmas would be waiting to get it ASAP, no?

The slim is still available... kinect is now available... +$50 gift card. They have shown growth every month with June being the lowest growth. Only January was close to that low of a growth within the last 12 months and January they were out of Kinect. You add all that up and a 12% jump doesn't seem unprecedented, the lower growth this June actually suggests some correction for the fact that June last year had a massive jump.

I think that's possible it. I'd need to see more June sales figures for platforms to see how it's doing. Going by my guesses, 400k would have been normal for this NPD, so we're needing an extra 20% which may not be past some promotion's capability. I'm sure other NPD's showing similar little spikes correlating to discount offers would prove that point nicely. I for one don't care enough about sales figures to go looking - I just like the logic of an investigation.

 

[Brad Grenz]

They have shown growth every month with June being the lowest growth. Only January was close to that low of a growth within the last 12 months and January they were out of Kinect. You add all that up and a 12% jump doesn't seem unprecedented, the lower growth this June actually suggests some correction for the fact that June last year had a massive jump.

Who is ignoring facts now? I've pointed out repeatedly why last June's sales figure from last year is not a useful point of comparison, not in the way you are trying to use. We're not trying to explain a "12% jump", we're trying to explain something more like a 60% jump over a "normal" June. And I'm highly skeptical that a $50 promo does that. A correction, as you say, would have, by most expectations, resulted in sales lower this year than last year, even with Kinect related growth.

 

[NavNucST3]

That's gonna be a big deal! All those people wanting Kinect for Christmas would be waiting to get it ASAP, no?

I think that's possible it. I'd need to see more June sales figures for platforms to see how it's doing. Going by my guesses, 400k would have been normal for this NPD, so we're needing an extra 20% which may not be past some promotion's capability. I'm sure other NPD's showing similar little spikes correlating to discount offers would prove that point nicely. I for one don't care enough about sales figures to go looking - I just like the logic of an investigation.

Shifty, what is there really left to understand? I guess I'm confused as to why "Windows 7" promotion doesn't or couldn't answer most of the questions that seem to be asked here. Best Buy is included in NPD as is Amazon and both are partaking in the MSFT promotion. Amazon has the promotion prominently displayed on their laptop page (I never visit best buy.com so couldn't tell you what they might have). When taking into consideration that the 360 has been the most popular home console in the US the last 11 of 12 months (I'm excluding this reporting month) this suggests that there is still very healthy demand for the product. That being the case why does it seem baffling that when an in-demand product is offered with another in-demand product that there would not be some increase to either or both in-demand products purchased?

I know the undercurrent of many of the questions is "why isn't the PS3 performing the same" but even that doesn't need answering. The PS3 IS increasing YoY, in the US, which is healthy for the system. I know there are many (formerly me included) that believe(d) at (pseudo or "value") price parity the PS3 would begin to consistently dominate the 360 in sales but the US has decided that the 360 is the preferred device and since SNE does give forecasts we should essentially expect whatever drop that occurs in Japan to be offset by the US since SNE forecasts flat growth for the FY whereas MSFT through braggadocio has said they are confident they will outsell their competitors worldwide this FY(?) year.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I'm trying to figure out how this thread is ever going to come to a conclusion about why the sales numbers were what they were. You basically have a lot of questions and absolutely no data to answer any of them. People have listed a multitude of reasons that might explain sales bumps, but you'll never be able to figure out what effect any of them had. The only data point you have is the absolute sales number. There seemed to be a lot of different promotions for the xbox, and I'm sure they all helped, but knowing exactly how much is impossible.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Shifty, what is there really left to understand?

Nothing much. There was a question as to why this June is so high, and an explanation to cover it in the form of promotions alongside general growth. All it took was someone to actually explain the promotions and patterns in growth in response to "what other possible explanations are there," instead of all the subtle mud-slinging that went on!

Seriously, the conversation should have gone like this:

"Wow, 500k is a big spike. Someone's suggesting it's unrealistic numbers including the giveaway and Brazilian market."
"500k is only a bit more than last year, so it's not that big."
"But last year Slim launched. What's the impetus for this big spike?"
"Good point about Slim last year, but I don't think it's that big a spike. Without Slim last year, looking at YoY growth 400k wouldn't be unexpected for June this year. MS have a few promotions on at the moment."
"Have they? Okay, I didn't know that. So 20% more than expected isn't really outlandish."

I know the undercurrent of many of the questions is "why isn't the PS3 performing the same" but even that doesn't need answering.

Sadly the undercurrent of almost every internet conversation is "so-and-so has an agenda" and hence we have very little honest questioning and discussion.

I'm trying to figure out how this thread is ever going to come to a conclusion about why the sales numbers were what they were. You basically have a lot of questions and absolutely no data to answer any of them. People have listed a multitude of reasons that might explain sales bumps, but you'll never be able to figure out what effect any of them had. The only data point you have is the absolute sales number. There seemed to be a lot of different promotions for the xbox, and I'm sure they all helped, but knowing exactly how much is impossible.

The real concern was an explanation of the numbers that, in typical internet fashion, were quickly muddied with a rumour of number wrangling. Now that's all explained, I certainly don't see reason to mistrust the original numbers as sold-to-NA figures, which shows MS have done stellar job selling their console.

 

[dobwal]

Because PS3 had comparable $50, $60 and $100 promotions and didn't see comparable extraordinary growth? We're looking for anomalous factors specific to the 360. Specific to June.

Disclaimer: I didn't check my math, so my points may be totally off. LOL

Didn't the PS3 see a 56% growth from May to June? Going from 177K in May to 276K in June. If you apply that towards the 360's 270K in May you get 421K for June. So you see an extra 86K and automatically think something nefarious is going on.

Did you know that for the last 7 months of 2010, the were only 2 months (Aug and Oct) that the 360 did less than 440K according to NPD. Last June 2010 doesn't represent a temporary monthly spike due the 360 S, it led to an almost total reshuffle of top sales leader in the US. And the 360 did this mostly without Kinect.

The jump in Xbox 360 sales jumped from May to June jumped 150% while the jump this year represented a 90% jump. The fact is that the Xbox 360 averaged 295K console sold over the first 5 months of 2010. Now, the 360 has averaged 383K console over the first 5 months of this year. In comparsion the the Wii went from averaging 406K over the first five months of 2010 to just 295K in 2011. While the PS3 went from averaging 257K per month over the first part of 2010 to 283K for 2011.

Average number of total consoles moved in the first 5 months of 2010: 958K per month
Average number of total consoles moved in the first 5 months of 2011: 961K per month

Seems to me based on the numbers, the 360 S with Kinect is cannabilizing a huge of amount of Wii sales with the PS3 also cannabilizing but by a much smaller amount.

The 360 has become the console market month to month sales leader in the US and its replicating similar numbers to what the Wii was doing last year. No one was suspicious of the Wii posting number we had never seen before on a month to month basis. Why should we now suspect NPD figures for the 360. The fact is the 360 S turned the Xbox into the monthly sales leader during 2010 and now it has Kinect for all of 2011.

Now Im not saying the MS isn't doing something to artifically inflate their NPD figures, but there is more than enough data available to explain 507K in June other than unethical manipulation by MS. 507K in june doesn't even represent the best month this year for the 360, that would be 535K in Feb. And if MS is doing something wrong it wouldn't be related to actions just for June but something ongoing over the last year.

You also have to take account that unlike the Wii, the Xbox S with Kinect is probably the most attactive product to its own current userbase probably ever. You get a new smaller and slicker form factor, better reliability and new functionality especially considering the original 360 wasn't the most attractive console, was still huge even by Xbox 1 standards and was the faultiest console ever produced.

Forgive my grammar.

 

[mrcorbo]

Matt Matthews (jvm on GAF) posted updated tie ratios in the GAF thread for discussion of his Gamasutra article.

Not in the article, but I figured y'all'd want to know: tie ratios! Xbox 360 is around 8.9, Wii around 7.3, and PS3 around 7.9.

 

[BRiT]

There were severe promotions for the Console 4Gig + Kinect that was not mentioned yet. This is above and beyond the $50 gift card already talked about. Amazon, NewEgg, Toys R Us, Target, and Walmart each had a buy both together to get a $100 gift card at various times throughout June.

 

[dobwal]

here were severe promotions for the Console 4Gig + Kinect that was not mentioned yet. This is above and beyond the $50 gift card already talked about. Amazon, NewEgg, Toys R Us, Target, and Walmart each had a buy both together to get a $100 gift card at various times throughout June.

Seems like a pretty smart business strategy. Let the holidays and big name titles push units from Nov to May and then use promotional discounts from June till Oct. They basically lower the actual sales price on consoles without affecting the retail list price. Meaning they dont have to worry about creating an uproar if they were to simply raise the retail sticker price due to demand of the holiday season.

 

[AzBat]

I'd like to make an observation about the Xbox 360 S June 2010 numbers, I'm not entirely sure that the Slim contributed as much as people think. It was officially announced Monday, June 14. They said units were shipping as they spoke, but nobody was really able to get any until Friday, June 18 at the earliest. Amazon didn't start shipping until the 19th. And they were in short supply at that. Plus, remember they only had the $299 250gb model available. General availability didn't start really until the July 4th holiday. Don't immediately start making the Slim launch the escape goat for the June 2010 numbers.

Personally I think I agree with Brit about all the $50/$100 sales being more of a contributor. Makes way more sense than the computer sale. Most back-to-school sales are done in August. In June kids are actually graduating. So they don't need computers as they already had them. They're thinking more about summer break during June than anything.

BTW, anybody bother to look at Microsoft's PC sales for June? You would figure Microsoft would be tooting their horn if the sale actually moved some PCs.

Tommy McClain

 

[Silent_Buddha]

It's entirely possible that June is particularly kind to consoles as kids are getting out of school and a console could be seen as a way of either rewarding them or just keeping them busy and out of the parents hair.

With the added influence of Kinect, that could explain why more sales move to X360 from Wii than to PS3 from Wii. Kinect just makes the entire console more attractive to families and kids.

Regards,
SB